"Zvichida hondo yeAfghanistan inogona kuoneka senge Micro-manejimendi maitiro evatorwa kune dzimwe nzendo pfupi nezvavanokoshesa" - Rory Stewart
NaHanna Qadir, Columbia University (Excellence Fellow), Chikunguru 15, 2020
Chiziviso cheWashington chekubviswa kwekupedzisira kwemauto ekupedzisira eAmerica kubva kuAfghanistan muna Nyamavhuvhu 31, zvakakonzera kupesana kwemaAmerican, neQuinnipiac University Survey inoratidza inopfuura hafu yevaAmerican vachiti vanobvumirana nesarudzo iyi, 29 muzana vasingabvumire uye 9 muzana vachipa hapana maonero.[1] Padanho rerubatsiro danho iri (pamwe nemhedzisiro yevhoti) inoda kuratidzwa kwakadzama pamusoro pesarudzo yeU.SA yekupindira muchiuto uye kuongororwa kwakaomarara kweanopfuura makumi maviri emakore eWestern coalition kuendeswa kuAfghanistan. Uine $ 2trn shandisa muhondo,[2] kurasikirwa kwezviuru zvemauto ekuMadokero pamwe nekufa kwemakumi ezviuru zvevaAfghan (varwi uye vanhuwo zvavo), munhu anofanira kuongorora kana hondo muAfghanistan yaikodzera kurwa, kunyangwe Biden achibvuma kuti hapazove ne "basa rakaitwa" nguva yeku fara. Ndechipi zvino chinogara chigaro cheimwe yehondo dzakarebesa kumhanya munhoroondo uye ongororo yekuti shanduko yemagariro ingadai yakawanikwa nyore nyore kuburikidza nehurongwa hwekuvaka runyararo hwakanangana nerunyararo "kubva pasi kumusoro? ”[3] Vagari vemunharaunda vanogona kuita nhaurirano-yakavakirwa rugare-kuvaka matanho angave ari nani nzira kune inoparadza uye yeropa hondo iyo yakatora makore makumi maviri?
Mudzidzi weBritish uye aimbova Gurukota rezvekumaruwa, Stewart, anorondedzera hondo yeAfghanistan uye kupindira kwakazotevera kwehondo se "Micro-manejimendi maitiro evatorwa kune dzimwe nzendo pfupi nezvavanokoshesa," [4] Kubata kutenda kwekuti rinorema remauto eAmerica rave risingabatsiri, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwete kudzikira mumhirizhonga. Kutora danho iri danho rinotenderera rinobvumidza kugadzirwa kweimwe nzira yekuvaka runyararo nemazano anotarisana nehunhu hwenharaunda uye kuonga mashandisiro esymmetry uye kusaenzana pakati pevatambi venyika dzese uye vanhu vemunyika nemasangano evagari vanofanirwa kuongororwa zviri nani kubvumidza yeiyo yakanaka yekukonana shanduko maitiro.
Kana munhu akadzorera nhoroondo, zviri nyore kutaura kukanganisika kuri kuramba kuchiitika kweanopindira muchiuto kunyangwe zvisingaregi zvirevo pamusoro pemafungiro ehondo asingadzivisike, anodikanwa uye akaruramiswa. Panyaya yeAfghanistan, mumwe anogona kusvika pakutaura kuti kudyara kwemari uye zviwanikwa zvakakanganisa nyika, zvakaparadzanisa maAfghans uye zvakakurudzira kugadzirwa kwehuwori nemarara. Kuisa yakakosha simba dynamics lens inosimbisa iro basa rekuzivikanwa mukugadziriswa kwemhirizhonga mhirizhonga. Chinzvimbo chakadai chinotenda zvine mutsindo mukushandiswa kwechinyakare maturusi ekugadzirisa gakava uye nzira yakareruka yekutsika mukugadzira kupindira kwepasirese, mukutsvaga kurongeka kwerunyararo. Zvakare, hukama hwemagetsi hunofanirwa kuratidza zvizere basa rekudyidzana pakati penyika dzisiri dzeNGO (kazhinji nemari yemubatsiri) nevatambi vemuno; akabata hupfumi hwezivo yemuno asi achishaikwa mari zviwanikwa. Kunzwisisa kwakadzama kwekudyidzana uye kuwirirana pakati pehurongwa hwenyika nerunyararo, uye kubudirira kweumwe kuwedzera mikana yekubudirira mune imwe, inogona kunge iri poindi inobatsira. Kuvaka runyararo munharaunda haisiyo mashiripiti uye kuti ibudirire kunoda kukoshesa zviyero zvakaita sekusimbisa masimba ehurongwa hwehutongi; pamwe nekubatanidza kukanganisa kweAfghanistan ezvematongerwo enyika nezvematongerwo enyika pane chero kuita ramangwana kuita
Inguva yekupokana iyo kumusoro-pasi paradigm yechitatu bato revatambi vekunze kupindira kuburikidza nekuvhura mukana weiyo yakawedzera gakava shanduko uye kugadzirisa nzira yekukoshesa kudiwa kwemumba-wakakurwa kugadzirisa gadziriso mhinduro uye kudyidzana kunoitiswa munharaunda.[5] Muchiitiko ichi pamwe varindi vemikova chaivo ekugadzira nzira dzekupindira muAfghanistan inyanzvi dzevadzidzi veAfghani vane ruzivo rwemaitiro emuno, kubatanidzwa kwehutungamiriri hwemunharaunda uye nevekuparara kwemuno, kwete mauto ekunze. Mumashoko aAustesserre, munyori uye muongorori weFrance-America: "Izvo chete kuburikidza nekutarisisa zvakadzama zvirongwa zvehuswa, kazhinji kushandisa nzira idzo dzepasi rose dzinowanzokanda mapfumo pasi, tinogona kuchinja nzira yatinoona nekuvaka nayo rugare. ” [6]
[1] Sonmez, F, (2021, Chikunguru) "Geroge W. Bush anoti kupedza basa remauto eU.S. kuAfghanistan chikanganiso." Kudzorerwa kubva kuThe Washington Post.
[2] Economist, (2021, Chikunguru) "Hondo yeAmerica muAfghanistan iri kupera mukukundwa kukuru." Kudzorerwa kubva ku https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/10/americas-longest-war-is-ending-in-crushing-defeat
[3] Reese, L. (2016) "Runyararo kubva Pasi Pazasi: Matanho uye Zvinetso zveUmwene Wenharaunda muDhaurirano Yakavakirwa Runyararo Initiatives" MuShifting Paradigms, rakapepetwa naJohannes Lukas Gartner, 23-31. New York: Hunhu Mukuita Press.
[4] Stewart, R. (2011, Chikunguru). "Nguva yekupedzisa hondo muAfghanistan" [Vhidhiyo File]. Kudzorerwa kubva https://www.ted.com/talks/rory_stewart_time_to_end_the_war_in_afghanistan?language=en
[5] Reich, H. (2006, Ndira 31). "'Varidzi vemunharaunda' mumakakatanwa ekushandura zvirongwa: kudyidzana, kutora chikamu kana kuchengetedza?" Pepa reBerghof rePasipo, kwete. 27 (Berghof Research Center yeConstruction Conflict Management, Gunyana 2006), Yakadzorerwa kubva http://www.berghoffoundation.org/fileadmin/ redaktion / Zvinyorwa / Mapepa / Nguva
[6] Autesserre, S. (2018, Gumiguru 23). "Kune Imwe Nzira Yekuvaka Runyararo uye haibve Kubva Kumusoro-Pasi." Kudzorerwa kubva kuMonkey Cage yeThe Washington Post.
