NaWinslow Myers, Ndira 15, 2018.
Mukutonga kwangu semugari anofarira, kune mwero unokatyamadza wekuramba uye kunyepedzera munyika yeurongwa hwenyukireya, kumativi ese. Kim Jong Un anonyengedza vanhu vake nenhema dzenhema dzekuparadza United States. Asi maAmerica zvakare anorerutsa simba remauto eAmerica, pamwe chete nesimba remamwe masimba enyukireya - nhanho yekuparadza inogona kuguma kwenyika. Kuramba, fungidziro dzisina mubvunzo, uye kudhirikira kuita segwara rine musoro. Kuisa kudzivirira hondo pekutanga kwakafukidzwa neparadigm yekusagadzikana bellicosity.
Kupa kuti North Korea yakatanga hondo yeKorea, 80% yeNorth Korea yakaparadzwa isati yapera. Mukuru weStrategic Air Command, Curtis Lemay, akadonhedza mabhomba akawanda kuNorth Korea kupfuura akaputiswa munzvimbo yese yeAsia-Pacific muHondo Yenyika II. Hupfumi hweNorth Korea hwakadzikira uye hwakangopora zvishoma. Kwakava nenzara muma1990. Hapana kuvharwa, hapana chibvumirano cherunyararo cherunyararo. Mafungiro eNorth Korea ndeekuti tichiri muhondo - chikonzero chiri nyore chekuti vatungamiriri vavo vatadze US, vachikanganisa pfungwa dzevagari vemo nemuvengi wekunze - trope yehudzvanyiriri. Nyika yedu inoramba ichitamba muchiitiko ichi.
Mhuri yaKim Jong Un inopindirana nekutengesa zvombo zvisiri pamutemo neheroin, mari yekunyepera, rudzikinuro ware izvo zvakakanganisa zvehutsinye basa rezvipatara pasirese, kupondwa kwehama, kuvharirwa zvisiri pamutemo, uye kutambudzwa kwevanopikisa mumisasa yechibharo.
Asi dambudziko redu razvino neNorth Korea ingori imwe muenzaniso yemamiriro epasirese, iyo yakaenzana mukukonana kweKashmir, semuenzaniso, iyo inopinza nyukliya India kurwisa nuclear yenyu Pakistan. Sokunyora kwakaita Einstein muna 1946, “Simba rakasunungurwa reatomu rakachinja chinhu chiri chose kunze kwemiitiro yedu yokufunga, uye nokudaro tinokukurwa takananga kungwavaira isingaenzaniswi.” Kunze kwekunge tawana nzira nyowani yekufunga, tinenge tichibata nemamwe maNorth Koreas pasi penguva-rukova.
Kuoma kwese kwehurongwa hwenyukireya, kunogona kubikwa kusvika pazvinhu zviviri zvisinganzvengeki: Isu takapfuura mhedziso yesimba rekuparadza uye hapana tekinoroji yakagadzirwa nevanhu yakagara isina kukanganisa.
Bhomba renyukireya rakaputika pamusoro peguta guru ripi neripi raizosimudza tembiricha kusvika 4 kana 5 pamusoro pezuva. Zvese zvemaskweya mamaira zana zvakatenderedza epicenter zvaizobvira ipapo. Dutu remoto raizogadzira mhepo inosvika mazana mashanu emakiromita paawa, inokwanisa kusveta mumasango, zvivakwa, uye vanhu. Soot inokwira ichipinda mutroposphere kubva pakuputika kwevashoma se500% kusvika 1% yezvombo zvepasi rose inogona kuve nemhedzisiro yekutonhodza pasi rose uye kudzikira kwemakore gumi kugona kwedu kukura izvo zvatinoda kuti tizvidye. Mabhirioni aizofa nenzara. Ini handisati ndanzwa nezve chero congressional hearings inotaura nezve mukana uyu unofadza — kunyangwe isiri ruzivo rutsva. Makore makumi matatu nematatu apfuura, sangano rangu, Beyond War, rakatsigira mharidzo yechando yenyukireya yakapihwa naCarl Sagan kuvamiriri ve5 vakabatana venyika. Nguva yechando yenyukireya inogona kunge iri nhau dzekare, asi kupikiswa kwayo kwezvinoreva simba rehondo kunoramba kusati kwamboitika uye kuchinja kwemutambo. Mamodheru akagadziridzwa anoratidza kuti kuitira kudzivirira chando chenyukireya, nyika dzese dzine zvombo zvenyukireya dzinofanirwa kudzikisa zvombo zvadzo kusvika kune mazana maviri ehondo.
Asi kunyangwe kudzikisira kwakanyanya kwakadaro hakugadzirise dambudziko rekukanganisa kana kukanganisa, izvo-zvakasimbiswa neawa yenhema yeHawaii-ndiyo nzira ingangotanga hondo yenyukireya neNorth Korea. Chirevo chehukama hweveruzhinji ndechekuti mutungamiri wenyika anogara aine macode, mabvumirano ekuita, ndiyo nzira chete hondo yenyukireya inogona kutangwa. Kunyange uku kuri kusimudza bvudzi zvakakwana, chokwadi chinogona kutonyanya kuodza mwoyo. Kunyange US kana Russian kudzivirira, kana North Korea yechinhu ichocho, yaizove nekuvimbika kana vavengi vakatenda kuti hondo yenyukireya inogona kuhwinwa nekungotora guta guru remuvengi kana mukuru wenyika. Aya masisitimu saka akagadzirwa kuti ave nechokwadi chekutsiva kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo, uye zvakare pasi pasi chetani yekuraira.
Munguva yedambudziko rezvombo zveCuba, Vasili Archikov aive mupurisa wengarava yepasi peSoviet apo mauto edu aidonhedza zvaidanwa kuti magirinedhi ekudzidzira, kuitira kuti auye pamusoro. MaSoviet aifunga kuti magirinedhi imhosva dzakadzama chaidzo. Mapurisa maviri aida kupisa torpedo yenyukireya pane imwe ndege yeAmerica iri pedyo inotakura ndege. Maererano neSoviet Navy protocol, mapurisa matatu aifanira kubvumirana. Hapana aive muchikepe chepasi pemvura aida mvumo yekuenda mberi kubva kuna VaKhrushchev kuti vatore danho rinouraya rakananga kumagumo enyika. Sezvineiwo, Archpov akanga asingadi kubvuma. Nehungwaru hwakafanana, hama dzaKennedy dzakadzora General ataurwa pamusoro Curtis Lemay kubva pakubhomba Cuba panguva yedambudziko remissile. Kudai kushivirira kwaLemay kwakakunda muna Gumiguru 1962, tingadai tichirwisa zvombo zvenyukireya zvine hungwaru uye zvombo zvepakati zvepakati muCuba zvine zvombo zvenyukireya zvakatoiswa pazviri. Robert McNamara: “Munguva yenyukireya, zvikanganiso zvakadaro zvinogona kuva nengwavaira. Hazvibviri kufanotaura nechivimbo migumisiro yezviito zvehondo nemasimba makuru. Naizvozvo, tinofanira kuwana kudzivirira dambudziko. Izvi zvinoda kuti tizviise mumamiriro ezvinhu emumwe nemumwe.”
Munguva yekuzorora mushure medambudziko reCuba, mhedziso ine njere yaive "hapana divi rakakunda; nyika yakakunda, ngativei nechokwadi kuti hatizombosviki pedyo zvakadai zvakare.” Kunyanguvezvo—takapfuurira. Munyori weHurumende Rusk akabudisa chidzidzo chisiri icho nokufara: “Takaenda kune mboni yeziso uye rimwe divi richibwaira.” Varwi vemauto-maindustrial juggernaut mumasimba makuru uye kune dzimwe nzvimbo vakaenderera mberi. Uchenjeri hwaEinstein hwakafuratirwa.
Nuclear deterrence ine izvo zvinonzi nevazivi kupesana kwekuita: Kuti zvisamboshandiswa, zvombo zvemunhu wese zvinofanirwa kuchengetwa zvakagadzirirwa kushandiswa ipapo, asi kana zvikashandiswa, tinotarisana nekuzviuraya kwepasi. Nzira chete yekukunda haisi yekutamba.
Iyo nharo yakavimbiswa yekuparadzana ndeyekuti hondo yepasi rose yakadziviswa kwemakore 73. Churchill akakururamisa nokutaura kwake kwenguva dzose, muichi chinoitika achitsigira fungidziro yakashata: “Kuchengeteka kuchava mwana akasimba anotyisa, uye kupukunyuka munun’una woruparadziko.”
Asi kudzivirira kwenyukireya hakuna kugadzikana. Inovhara nyika kuita denderedzwa risingaperi rekuvaka / ivo vanovaka, uye isu tinonyura mune izvo zvinonzi nenyanzvi dzepfungwa dzakadzidza kusabatsira. Kunyangwe isu tichifungidzira fungidziro yekuti zvombo zvedu zvenyukireya zviripo chete kudzivirira, sekudzivirira chete, vatungamiriri vazhinji veUS vakazvishandisa kutyisidzira vavengi. General MacArthur sezviri pachena akafunga kuzvishandisa munguva yehondo yeKorea, sekushamisika kwaNixon kana zvombo zvenyukireya zvaigona kushandura kukundwa kuri kuuya mukukunda muVietnam. Mutungamiriri wedu aripo anoti zvine basa rei kuva nazvo kana isu tisingakwanise kuzvishandisa? Ikoko hakusi kutaura kwokudzivisa. Ndiko kutaura kwomumwe munhu asinganzwisisi kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvakasiyana chaizvo.
Pakazosvika 1984, zvombo zvepakati-kati zvakaiswa muEurope nesu uye neUSSR nguva yekuita sarudzo yeNATO neSoviet yakapfupikiswa kuita maminetsi. Nyika yakange yave parumananzombe, sezvazviri nhasi. Chero ani akararama mukati me reds-pasi-the-bed hysteria yenguva yeMcCarthy achayeuka kuti fungidziro huru nezveSoviet Union sematsotsi, akaipa uye asingadi Mwari zvakapetwa kachuru kupfuura zvatinonzwa nhasi pamusoro paKim nenyika yake diki yakarara. .
Muna 1984, kukudza International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, sangano rangu, Beyond War, rakagadzira terevhizheni yepaTV "spacebridge" pakati peMoscow neSan Francisco. Vateereri vakawanda mumaguta ose ari maviri, vakapatsanurwa kwete chete nenzvimbo gumi nembiri dzenguva asiwo nemakumi emakore ehondo inotonhora, vakateerera zvikumbiro zvemasachigaro eIPPNW, kuti vayanane pakati peUS neSoviet. Nguva yainyanya kushamisa yakasvika kumagumo apo isu tose muvateereri takangoerekana tatanga kukwazisana.
Mumwe mutsoropodzi akanyora ongororo inotyisa yechiitiko chedu muWall Street Journal, achiti US, ichibatsirwa nehondo idiocy inobatsira, yakashandiswa mukupikisa nhema dzemakomunisti. Asi spacebridge yakazoita inopfuura nguva yekumbaya. Kuvandudza vatinoshamwaridzana navo, takaunganidza zvikwata zviviri zvemasayendisiti enyukireya epamusoro kubva kuUnited States neSoviet Union kuti vanyore bhuku pamusoro pehondo yenyukireya yakaitika netsaona, rinonzi "Breakthrough." Gorbachev akaiverenga. Basa remamiriyoni evaratidziri, maNGOs akaita seBeyond War, nevakuru vebasa rekunze vane hunyanzvi vakatanga kubereka chibereko muhafu yechipiri ye1980s. Muna 1987 Reagan naGorbachev vakasaina chibvumirano chakakosha chezvombo zvenyukireya. Rusvingo rweBerlin rwakapunzika muna 1989. Gorbachev naReagan, munguva inotyisa yepfungwa, vakasangana muna 1986 paReykjavik uye vakatofunga nezvokubvisa zvombo zvenyukireya zvemasimba makuru maviri. Matanho akadaro kubva kuma1980 anoramba akakosha kune North Korea dambudziko. Kana isu tichida kuti North Korea ichinje, isu tinofanirwa kuongorora isu pachedu mukugadzira iyo echo chamber yekutyisidzira uye kupokana-kutyisidzira.
Rufu rwaDr King rwakanga rwuchiuraya hukuru hwedu senyika. Akabatanidza madonhwe pakati perusaruraganda rwedu nemauto edu. Sezvineiwo, General Curtis Lemay, mupfuri wemoto weTokyo muHondo Yenyika II, denda reKorea, rakapotsa-kukonzeresa kwehondo ine simba guru renyukireya panguva yedambudziko reCuba, rinoonekwazve munhoroondo imwe nguva, muna 1968, gore rimwe chetero rakapondwa Mambo-sezvakaitwa naGeorge Wallace. mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika. Kufunga kuita kuPyongyang muna 2018 zvatakaita kuHiroshima muna 1945 zvinoda hutsinye hunotyisa hwevanhu vanosvika mamirioni makumi maviri neshanu veNorth Korea. Kururamiswa kwaLemay kwekufa kwevanhu vakawanda kunobva munzvimbo imwechete yepfungwa seyaGeorge Wallace (uye Mutungamiri Trump) rusaruraganda.
Vana vekuNorth Korea vanokodzera hupenyu sewedu. Iyo haisi kumbaya. Ndiro meseji North Korea inoda kunzwa kubva kwatiri. Dai Mambo achiri nesu, angadai achitinhira kuti mitero yedu ibhadharise mukana wekupondwa kwevanhu vakawanda pamwero waizoita kuti kuurayiwa kwevaJudha kuite sepikiniki. Angapokana kuti kunzvenga tsika kufunga kuti nukes dzedu dzakanaka nekuti dzine demokrasi, uye dzaKim dzakaipa nekuti dzakadzvanyirira. Nyika yedu inoda kumbotaura nyaya yezviviri, kwatinorambidza zvombo zvenyukireya zveIran neNorth Korea asi kwete zvedu. North Korea neIran dzinofanirwa kurambidzwa kuve nhengo mukirabhu yenyukireya, asi isu tose tinofanira kudaro.
Kufunga kutsva kunoda kuti tibvunze kunyangwe mavara asina kunaka saKim Jong Un, "ndingakubatsira sei kuti urarame, kuti tese tipone?" Yese yekubata, kusanganisira iyo Seoul Olimpiki, inopa mikana yekubatana. Kana isu tine moyo murefu, North Korea inoshanduka pasina imwe hondo yeKorea. Izvi zviri kutoitika sezvo masimba emusika uye tekinoroji yeruzivo zvishoma nezvishoma ichishanda nzira yavo mutsika yavo yakavharwa.
Kudzivirirwa kwekupedzisira kwehondo yenyukireya, neNorth Korea kana chero ani zvake, kunoda kuderedzwa kwakazara, kudzokororwa, kwakasimbiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya zvemunhu wese, kutanga pasi pasi pechikumbaridzo chechando chenyukireya uyezve, kwenguva refu, kudzika kusvika zero. Nyika yedu pachedu inofanira kutungamira. VaTrump naVaPutin vaigona kushandisa hukama hwavo husinganzwisisiki nekutanga musangano wechigarire wezvombo zvenyukireya, zvishoma nezvishoma vachinyora kubatanidzwa kwemamwe masimba enyukireya manomwe. Nyika yose ingadai iri midzi yebudiriro, panzvimbo pokutitya sezvazviri iye zvino. Kuvimba-kuvaka unilateral mafambiro anogoneka. Aimbove Munyori weDziviriro William Perry akapokana kuti United States ingave yakawanda, kwete zvishoma, yakachengeteka kana isu unilaterally takabvisa edu 7 ICBMs mumasilos, gumbo-rakavakirwa pasi retatu yedu yenyukireya.
Vanyori vakaita saSteven Pinker naNick Kristof vakaratidza huwandu hwemaitiro anoratidza kuti pasi riri kufamba zvishoma nezvishoma kubva kuhondo. Ini ndinoda kuti nyika yangu ibatsire kumhanyisa mafambiro iwayo, kwete kuanonokera, kana kuti mwari vatibatsire, dzosera kumashure. Taifanira kunge takatsigira, pane kuramba, chibvumirano chazvino cheUN chinorambidza zvombo zvenyukireya. Nyika 122 kubva mu195 dzakasaina chibvumirano ichi. Chibvumirano chakadaro pakutanga chingaita sechisina mazino, asi nhoroondo inoshanda nenzira yechienzi. Muna 1928, nyika 15 dzakasaina chibvumirano cheKellogg-Briand, icho chairambidza hondo yose. Yakatenderwa, kana iwe uchigona kuzvitenda, neseneti yeUnited States muvhoti ye85 kune 1. Ichiri kushanda, kunyange zvazvo isingatauri kuti yakaremekedzwa zvakanyanya mukuputsika kupfuura mukuchengetwa. Asi gwaro iroro rainzi pie-in-the-sky ndiro rakapa hwaro hwepamutemo hwokuwanira vaNazi mhosva dzokurwadzisa rugare munguva yekutongwa kweNuremberg.
Injini dzimwe chetedzo dzinosimbisa zvombo zvedu dzakatipinzawo muchadenga, dzichitibvumira kuona pasi sechinhu chipenyu chimwe—mufananidzo une njere, une simba, wakakwana wokuvimbana kwedu. Zvatinoitira vadzivisi vedu tinozviitira isu. Iri ibasa renguva yedu kudyara kufunga kutsva uku mukati mekuverenga kwedu kweMachiavellian kupona-kuzviisa mutsoka dzemumwe nemumwe sekutaura kwakaita Secretary McNamara. Zvakasikwa hazvina kuunza pasi redu kuburikidza nehurongwa hwemakore mabhiriyoni 13.8 kuti isu tiipedze mukuzviuraya kwega kwega. Kusashanda zvakanaka kwemutungamiri wedu aripo kunongoshanda kujekesa kusashanda kweiyo nyukireya deterrence system yese.
Vamiriri vedu vanofanirwa kunzwa vazhinji vedu tichikumbira kunzwikwa kwakavhurika pagwaro renyukireya, kunyanya chando chenyukireya, kupenga kwekuzvikunda kwe "mazano" sekutanga-pa-yambiro, uye kudzivirira kwehondo yenyukireya nekukanganisa.
Maonero epasirese akasimbiswa ndeekuti vanhu vane chido chakanaka vari kuyedza kuvaka nharaunda inodiwa yaMambo, uye kuti kudzivirira kwenyukireya kunodzivirira iyo nharaunda isina kusimba kubva munyika ine njodzi. King angadai akataura kuti kudzivirira kwenyukireya pachayo chikamu chikuru chenjodzi. Kana isu pano muUnited States takasvika pakunzwisisa kutadza kwekutanga kwerusaruraganda rwedu nemhirizhonga, taizotarisa dambudziko reNorth Korea nemeso akasiyana, uye vangatotionawo zvakasiyana. Tiri kukukurwa takananga kunjodzi isingaenzaniswi kana kuti tiri kuita zvatinogona kuvaka nharaunda inodiwa yaMambo—pasi rose.
Winslow Myers, Martin Luther King Day, 2018
