Nyukliya Deterrence Nhema. Uye A Lethal Rimwe paIyo.

Mukirasi yake Kushanduka kweNyukireya Strategy (1989), Lawrence Freedman, mukuru mukuru wevanyori vezvakaitika kare vehondo veBritain nenyanzvi dzokuronga nzira, akagumisa, kuti: ‘Emperor Deterrence angave asina zvipfeko, asi achiri Mambo.’ Pasinei nekushama kwake, mambo uyu anoramba achitenderera, achigamuchira kuremekedzwa kwaasingakodzeri, achiisa pasi rose pangozi. Nuclear deterrence ipfungwa yakava pfungwa inouraya, iyo inoramba ine simba kunyangwe yakaramba ichishorwa.

Nokudaro, kudzivirira kwenyukireya kwakatangwa, gadziriro inoratidzika kuva ine mufungo umo rugare nokudzikama zvaizomuka kupfurikidza netyisidziro yokuparadzana kunovimbiswa (MAD, zvakakodzera zvakakwana).

Winston Churchill akaitsanangura muna 1955 nesimba guru: 'Kuchengeteka kuchava mwana akasimba wekutya, uye kupona mapatya ekuparadza.'

Zvakakosha, kudzivirira kwakava kusiri zano rinongonzi, asi zvikonzero izvo hurumende dzakapembedza zvombo zvenyukireya pachavo. Hurumende imwe neimwe ine zvombo zvenyukireya zvino inoti inodzivisa kurwiswa netyisidziro yokutsiva kwakaipisisa.

Kunyangwe ongororo pfupi, zvisinei, inoratidza kuti kudzivirira hakusi kure sekumanikidza musimboti sekureva kunoita mukurumbira wayo. Munovhero yake Ambassadors(1903), Henry James akatsanangura imwe runako se'chishongo chinopenya uye chakaoma', pakarepo achibwaira uye kudedera, achiwedzera kuti 'zvairatidzika zvese pamusoro peimwe nguva zvaiita sedzakadzika inotevera'. Veruzhinji vakayeverwa nekupenya kwepamusoro kutaridzika kwekudzivirira, nevimbiso yayo yesimba, chengetedzo nechengetedzo. Asi izvo zvinonzi zvakadzika hurongwa hwakadzama hunoputsika nekukatyamadza zviri nyore kana zvichiongororwa zvakanyanya.

Ngatitangei nekutarisa musimboti weiyo deterrence theory: kuti yashanda.

Vatsigiri vekudzivirira nyukireya vanosimbirira kuti tinofanira kutenda nekuda kwekuti hondo yenyika yechitatu yakadziviswa, kunyange kana kusawirirana pakati pemasimba maviri makuru - US neUSSR - kwakakwira.

Vamwe vatsigiri vanototsigira kuti kudziviswa kwakagadzira danho rekudonha kweSoviet Union uye kukundwa kweCommunism. Mukutaura uku, kudzivirira kwenyukireya kwekuMadokero kwakadzivirira USSR kubva pakupinda kumadokero kweEurope, uye yakanunura nyika kubva mukutyisidzirwa kwehudzvanyiriri hweCommunist.

Kune, zvisinei, nharo dzinomanikidza dzinokurudzira kuti US neyaimbova Soviet Union yakadzivirira hondo yenyika nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakati wandei, zvakanyanya nekuti hapana divi raida kuenda kuhondo. Chokwadi, iyo US neRussia haina kumborwa hondo nguva yenyukireya isati yasvika. Kuburitsa zvombo zvenyukireya sechikonzero nei Hondo Yemashoko isina kumbobvira yapisa kwakangofanana nokutaura kuti motokari yejunkyard, isina injini kana mavhiri, haina kumbomhanya mhanya nekuti hapana akavhura kiyi. Kutaura zvine musoro, hapana nzira yekuratidza kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvakachengeta runyararo panguva yeHondo Yemashoko, kana kuti ivo vanozviita izvozvi.

Zvichida rugare rwakavapo pakati pamasimba makuru maviri nemhaka bedzi yokuti akanga asina kupopotedzana kwairuramisa kurwa hondo inoparadza zvikuru, kunyange hondo yakajairika.

Iko hakuna humbowo, semuenzaniso, hwekuti hutungamiriri hweSoviet hwakambofunga kuyedza kukunda kumadokero kweEurope, ndoda kuti yakadzorwa neWest nuclear arsenal. Post facto nharo - kunyanya dzisina kunaka - inogona kunge iri mari yevanoongorora, asi hazvigoneki kuratidza, uye hazvipi chikonzero chakasimba chekuongorora chirevo chenhema, uchifungidzira kuti sei chimwe chinhu kwete zvakaitika.

Mukutaura, kana imbwa ikasahukura usiku, tingataura here nechokwadi kuti hapana akafamba nepamba apa? Vanoda kuzvidzora vakafanana nemukadzi anopfapfaidza mutsara wake mangwanani oga oga. Apo muvakidzani akanga avhiringidzika akabvunza nezvounhu uhwu hunoshamisa, akapindura kuti: 'Ndinozviita kuti nzou dzive kure.' Muvakidzani wacho akatsutsumwa kuti: 'Asi hapana nzou dzipi nedzipi mukati memakiromita 10,000 XNUMX kubva pano,' ipapo mushonga wepefiyumu wakapindura kuti: 'Munoona, zvinoshanda!'

Hatifanire kukorokotedza vatungamiriri vedu, kana deterrence theory, ndoda zvombo zvenyukireya, kuchengetedza runyararo.

Chatingataura ndechekuti, kubva mangwanani ano, vane simba rekuparadza hupenyu havasati vaita izvi. Asi izvi hazvinyaradzi zvachose, uye nhoroondo haichanyanyi kunyaradza. Nguva ye'runyararo rwenyukireya', kubva kuHondo Yenyika Yechipiri kusvika pakupera kweCold War, yakatora makore asingasviki makumi mashanu. Makore anopfuura makumi maviri akaparadzanisa Hondo Yenyika Yekutanga neChipiri; izvi zvisati zvaitika, pakanga pave nemakore anopfuura makumi mana erunyararo pakati pekupera kweHondo yeFranco-Prussian (20) neHondo Yenyika Yekutanga (40), uye makore makumi mashanu neshanu pakati peHondo yeFranco-Prussia uye kukundwa kwaNapoleon paWaterloo (1871). )

Kunyange muEurope makazara nehondo, makumi emakore orugare ave asingawanzowanikwi. Nguva imwe neimwe, pakapera rugare uye hondo yakatevera yakatanga, hondo yaisanganisira zvombo zvaiwanikwa panguva iyoyo - izvo, kune imwe huru inotevera, zvingangosanganisira zvombo zvenyukireya. Nzira bedzi yokuva nechokwadi chokuti zvombo zvenyukireya hazvishandiswi kuva nechokwadi chokuti hapana zvombo zvakadaro. Zvechokwadi hapana chikonzero chokufunga kuti kuvapo kwezvombo zvenyukireya kuchadzivisa kushandiswa kwazvo. Danho rekutanga rekuona kuti vanhu havaburitse kuparadzwa kwenyukireya kungave kuratidza kuti Emperor Deterrence haana zvipfeko - izvo zvinozovhura mukana wekutsiva fungidziro nechimwe chinhu chakakodzera.

Zvinogoneka kuti runyararo rwepashure-1945 US-Soviet rwakauya 'nesimba', asi izvo hazvidi kureva kudzivirira kwenyukireya. Hazvirambike zvakare kuti kuvepo kwezvombo zvenyukireya payambiro yebvudzi-yekukwanisa kusvika kumusha kwemumwe nemumwe mumaminitsi kwaita kuti mativi ese ari maviri ave nehasha.

Iyo Cuban Missile Crisis ye1962 - apo, nenyaya dzese, nyika yakaswedera pedyo nehondo yenyukireya kupfuura chero imwe nguva - haisi humbowo hwekubudirira kwekudzivisa: dambudziko rakaitika nekuda kwezvombo zvenyukireya. Zvingangoita kuti isu taponeswa muhondo yenyukireya kwete nekuda kwekudzivisa asi zvisinei nazvo.

Kunyange kana zviine divi rimwe chete, zvombo zvenyukireya hazvina kumisa mamwe marudzi ehondo. Chimurenga cheChinese, Cuban, Iranian neNicaragua zvese zvakaitika kunyangwe US ​​ine zvombo zvenyukireya yakatsigira hurumende dzakakundwa. Saizvozvo, US yakarasikirwa neHondo yeVietnam, sezvakangoita Soviet Union yakarasikirwa muAfghanistan, kunyangwe nyika mbiri idzi dzisine zvombo zvenyukireya chete, asiwo zvombo zvakajairika uye zviri nani kupfuura vavengi vavo. Uyewo zvombo zvenyukireya hazvina kubatsira Russia muhondo yayo isina kubudirira kurwisa vapanduki veChechen muna 1994-96, kana muna 1999-2000, apo zvombo zvekare zveRussia zvakaparadza kutambura kweChechen Republic.

Zvombo zvenyukireya hazvina kubatsira US kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo muIraq kana Afghanistan, izvo zvave kudhura zvakanyanya kutadza kwenyika ine zvombo zvenyukireya zvepamberi. Zvakare, kunyangwe paine zvombo zvenyukireya, US inoramba ichitya kurwiswa kwemagandanga epamba, ayo angangoita kugadzirwa nezvombo zvenyukireya pane kudziviswa nazvo.

Muchidimbu, hazvina musoro kuita nharo kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvamisa ani rudzi rwehondo, kana kuti vachadaro mune ramangwana. Mukati meHondo Yemashoko, rutivi rumwe norumwe rwakapinda muhondo yenguva dzose: vaSoviet, somuenzaniso, muHungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), uye Afghanistan (1979-89); maRussia muChechnya (1994-96; 1999-2009), Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014-ikozvino), pamwe chete neSyria (2015-ikozvino); uye US muKorea (1950-53), Vietnam (1955-75), Lebanon (1982), Grenada (1983), Panama (1989-90), Persian Gulf (1990-91), yaimbova Yugoslavia (1991- 99), Afghanistan (2001-ikozvino), uye Iraq (2003-ikozvino), kutaura nyaya shoma.

Uyewo zvombo zvavo hazvina kumisa kurwisa nyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya nevashori vasiri nyukireya. Muna 1950, China yakamira makore gumi nemana kubva pakugadzira nekuendesa zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya, nepo US yaive neatomu yakanyatsogadzirwa. Zvakangodaro, sezvo mafambiro eHondo yeKorea aichinja zvakanyanya kuNorth, kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS hazvina kutadzisa China kutumira varwi vanopfuura zviuru mazana matatu mhiri kweRwizi rwaYalu, zvichikonzera kugadzikana kweiyo peninsula yeKorea inoipatsanura nanhasi, uye zvakaguma nokumwe kusawirirana kune ngozi zvikuru pasi rose kusina kugadziriswa.

Muna 1956, United Kingdom ine zvombo zvenyukireya yakayambira Egypt isiri yenyukireya kuti irege kuita kuti Suez Canal ive nyika. Pasina chimuko: iyo UK, France neIsrael yakazopedzisira yapinda muSinai nemauto akajairwa. Muna 1982, Argentina yakarwisa Falkland Islands yakabatwa neBritish, kunyangwe iyo UK yaive nezvombo zvenyukireya uye Argentina haina.

Kutevera kurwisa kwakatungamirwa neUS muna 1991, Iraq yakashongedzerwa haina kudziviswa kubva mukukanda zvombo zveScud kuIsrael ine zvombo zvenyukireya, iyo isina kutsiva, kunyangwe ingadai yakashandisa zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya kuti iputse Baghdad. Zvakaoma kufungidzira kuti kuita kudaro kwaizobatsira sei chero munhu. Zviripachena, zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS hazvina kumisa kurwiswa kwehugandanga kuUS kwe11 Gunyana 2001, sezvakangoita zvombo zvenyukireya zveUK neFrance zvisina kudzivirira kudzokororwa kwehugandanga munyika idzodzo.

Deterrence, muchidimbu, haidzivisi.

Muenzaniso wacho wakadzika uye wakapararira munzvimbo. France ine zvombo zvenyukireya haina kukwanisa kukunda Algerian National Liberation Front. Hondo yenyukireya yeUS haina kumisa Mawodzanyemba Koriya kubva pakutora chikepe cheUS intelligence-kuunganidza, USS Pueblo, muna 1968. Kunyange nanhasi, igwa iri richiri mumaoko eNorth Korea.

US nukes haina kuita kuti China itore Vietnam kuti ipedze kupinda kwayo muCambodia muna 1979. Uyewo zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS hazvina kumisa Iranian Revolutionary Guards kutora vamiriri veUS nekuvabata senhapwa (1979-81), sezvakangoita kutya zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS. Hatipe simba US nevabatsiri vayo kuti vamanikidze Iraq kuti idzoke kubva kuKuwait pasina kurwa muna 1990.

In Nyukliya Zvombo uye Nhaurirano Dzakabatana (2017), masayendisiti ezvematongerwo enyika Todd Sechser naMateo Fuhrmann vakaongorora 348 territorial gakava kuitika pakati 1919 uye 1995. Vakashandisa nhamba ongororo kuona kana zvombo zvenyukireya-nezvombo nyika dzakanga dzakabudirira kupfuura nyika dzakajairika mukumanikidza vadzivisi vavo panguva tertorial gakava. Vakanga vasina.

Kwete izvozvo zvoga, asi zvombo zvenyukireya hazvina kushingisa avo varidzi vazvo kuti vawedzere kudiwa; kana zvakadaro, nyika dzakadaro dzaive dzakati zvishoma vakabudirira kuwana nzira yavo. Mune zvimwe zviitiko, kuongorora kunenge kunonakidza. Nekudaro, pakati pezviitiko zvishoma izvo kutyisidzira kubva kunyika ine zvombo zvenyukireya kwakanyorwa sekumanikidza mupikisi kwaive kusimbirira kweUS, muna 1961, kuti Dominican Republic iite sarudzo dzegutsaruzhinji zvichitevera kuurayiwa kwemudzvanyiriri Rafael Trujillo, pamwe chete. Chikumbiro cheUS, muna 1994, zvichitevera kutorwa kwemauto eHaiti, kuti macolonels eHaiti adzorere Jean-Bertrand Aristide pachigaro. Muna 1974-75, nyukliya yeChina yakamanikidza Portugal isiri yenyukireya kuti ipe chirevo chayo kuMacau. Mienzaniso iyi yaisanganisirwa nekuti vanyori vakatsvaga nekutendeseka kutarisisa nyaya dzese umo nyika ine zvombo zvenyukireya yakawana nzira yayo vis-à-vis-ine isiri yenyukireya. Asi hapana mucherechedzi akadzama angati kubatwa kwePortugal kana Dominican Republic kune zvombo zvenyukireya zveChina kana US.

Zvose izvi zvinoratidzawo kuti kutorwa kwezvombo zvenuclear neIran kana North Korea hazvikwanisike kuti nyika idzi dzikwanise kumanikidza vamwe, zvingave 'zvadzinovavarira' zvombo zvenyukireya kana zvemazuva ose.

Chinhu chimwe chete kugumisa kuti kudzivirira kwenyukireya hakuna kumisa, uye hakuna kupa simba rekumanikidza - asi njodzi dzayo dzinoshamisa dzinotonyanya kuzvidza.

Kutanga, kudzivirira kuburikidza nezvombo zvenyukireya hakuna kuvimbika. Mupurisa ane bhegi rechombo chenyukireya angasaita kuti adzivise gororo: 'Mira muzita romutemo, kana kuti ndichaputika tose!' Saizvozvo, panguva yeCold War, vakuru veNATO vakachema-chema kuti maguta eWest Germany aive akaparadzana asingasviki makirotoni maviri - izvo zvaireva kuti kudzivirira Europe nezvombo zvenyukireya kwaizoiparadza, uye saka chirevo chekuti Red Army yaizodziviswa nenyukireya chaive chaicho. incredible. Mhedzisiro yacho yaive kukwenenzverwa kwezvombo zvidiki, zvine hungwaru zvakanyanya izvo zvaizonyanya kushandiswa uye, nekudaro, izvo basa rayo mudambudziko raizovimbika zvakanyanya. Asi zvombo zvakaiswa zvinonyanya kushandiswa, uye nekudaro zvinovimbika sezvidziviriro, zvine mutoro wekushandiswa.

Chechipiri, kudzivirira kunoda kuti arsenal yedivi rega rega irambe isingatadzirwe kurwisa, kana kuti kurwiswa kwakadaro kwaizodzivirirwa chero munhu angave akabatwa aine 'second-strike' yekutsiva, yakakwana kudzivirira kurwiswa kwakadaro pakutanga. Nokufamba kwenguva, zvisinei, zvombo zvenyukireya zvave zvichiwedzera kururama, zvichimutsa kushushikana pamusoro pekusagadzikana kwezvombo izvi pakurova kwe'counterforce'. Muchidimbu, nyika dzenyukireya dziri kuramba dzichikwanisa kunanga zvombo zvenyukireya zvemuvengi wadzo kuti zviparadze. Mune yakashata argot of deterrence theory, iyi inodaidzwa kunzi counterforce vulnerability, ine 'kusagadzikana' zvichireva zvombo zvenyukireya zvechinangwa, kwete huwandu hwayo. Mhedzisiro yakanyatsojeka yezvombo zvenyukireya zviri kuwedzera zvakarurama uye chikamu che 'counterforce vulnerability' chekudzivirira dzidziso ndechekuwedzera mukana wekurova kwekutanga, ukuwo uchiwedzera njodzi yekuti angangove akabatwa, achitya chiitiko chakadaro, angaedzwa kufanobvisa. nekurova kwayo kwekutanga. Mamiriro ezvinhu anokonzeresa - umo divi rega rega rinoona mukana unobvira mukurova pekutanga - haina kugadzikana zvine njodzi.

Chechitatu, deterrence theory inotora hunyanzvi hwekuita sarudzo. Inofungidzira kuti avo vane zvigunwe zvavo pamusoro pezvipfuri zvenyukireya vanhu vane njere vanozoramba vakadzikama uye mukuziva vasina kukanganisa mumamiriro ezvinhu anonetsa zvikuru. Inofungidzirawo kuti vatungamiriri vachagara vachidzora pamusoro pemauto avo uye kuti, zvakare, ivo vachagara vachidzora pamusoro pemanzwiro avo zvakare, vachiita sarudzo zvichibva pakuverenga kunotonhorera kwemaitiro emitengo uye mabhenefiti. Deterrence theory inoramba, muchidimbu, kuti divi rimwe nerimwe richavhundutsa bhurugwa kubva kune rimwe netarisiro yeakanyanya kutyisa, zvisingafungidzirwe mhedzisiro, uye inozozvibata nemaune uye nemaune. Zvinenge zvese zvinozivikanwa nezve psychology yemunhu zvinoratidza kuti izvi hazvina musoro.

In Gwayana dema uye Gray Falcon: Rwendo kuburikidza neYugoslavia (1941), Rebecca West akacherechedza kuti: 'Chikamu chedu chete chine ungwaru: chikamu chimwe chete chedu chinoda mafaro uye zuva refu remufaro, chinoda kurarama kusvika kuma90s uye kufa murunyararo ...' Hazvidi huchenjeri husina maturo kuziva izvozvo. vanhu vanowanzoita nemafungiro asiri iwo, kutsamwa, kupererwa, kupenga, kusindimara, kutsiva, rudado uye/kana kuti kugutsikana. Uyezve, mune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu - sekunge rimwe divi rine chokwadi chekuti hondo haidzivisiki, kana dzvinyiriro dzekudzivisa kurasikirwa nehuso dzakanyanya - chiito chisina musoro, kusanganisira chinouraya, chinogona kuonekwa chakakodzera, kunyange chisingadzivisiki.

Paakarayira kurwiswa kwePearl Harbor, gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kwenyika reJapan rakaona kuti: 'Dzimwe nguva zvakakodzera kuvhara maziso osvetuka kubva pachikuva cheTemberi yeKiyomizu [nzvimbo yakakurumbira yokuzviuraya].' Mukati meHondo Yenyika Yokutanga, Kaiser Wilhelm II weGermany akanyora mumucheto megwaro rehurumende kuti: 'Kunyange kana tikaparadzwa, England icharasikirwa neIndia.'

Ari muimba yake yekugara, mumazuva ekupedzisira eHondo Yenyika Yechipiri, Adolf Hitler akarayira zvaaitarisira kuti ndiko kuparadzwa zvachose kweGermany, nokuti akanzwa kuti maGermany akanga 'amukundikana'.

Funga, zvakare, mutungamiri weUS anoratidza zviratidzo zvehurwere hwepfungwa, uye ane zvirevo uye matweets anotyisa anoenderana nedementia kana psychosis chaiyo. Vatungamiri venyika - vane zvombo zvenyukireya kana kwete - havana kudzivirirwa kuchirwere chepfungwa. Asi, deterrence theory inofungidzira zvakasiyana.

Chekupedzisira, hapana nzira yekuti vatungamiriri vemauto kana vemauto vazive kana nyika yavo yaunganidza simba renyukireya rakakwana kugutsa zvinodiwa zvekuva ne 'chidziviriro chinoshanda'. Semuenzaniso, kana rimwe divi rikada kuparadzwa mukurwisa, hazvigone kudziviswa, zvisinei nekutyisidzirwa kwekutsiva. Neimwe nzira, kana rumwe rutivi ruine chokwadi neruvengo rusingachinji rwerimwe, kana kuti kunofungidzirwa kwaro kusava nehanya nokurasikirwa noupenyu, hapana chitsama chezvombo chinogona kukwana. Kwete izvozvo chete, asi chero bedzi kuunganidza zvombo kuchigadzira mari yevanodzivirira kudzivirira, uye sekureba sekugadzira, kugadzira uye kutumira 'zvizvarwa' zvitsva zvezvinhu zvenyukireya zvinosimudzira mabasa, chokwadi nezve deterrence theory chicharamba chakavanzika. Kunyange denga harina muganhu; varwi vanoda kuisa zvombo mudenga.

Sezvineiwo zvombo zvenyukireya zvinoshandawo zvinofananidzira, zvinodiwa zvepfungwa, nekuratidza zvakaitwa neruzivo rwenyika uye nekudaro kuendesa kutendeseka kune dzimwe nzira dzisina kuchengeteka vatungamiriri nenyika, saka, zvakare, hapana nzira ine musoro yekumisikidza hushoma (kana cap the maximum) saizi ye arsenal yemunhu. Pane imwe nguva, mamwe madetonations anouya achipokana nemutemo wekudzikisira kudzoka, kana sezvakataurwa naWinston Churchill, vanongoita 'kuita marara'.

Mukuwedzera, tsika yekudzivisa ndeye oxymoron. Vezvechitendero vanoziva kuti hondo yenyukireya haimbofi yakazadzisa zvinodaidzwa kuti 'hondo chete'. Muna 1966, Dare Rechipiri reVatican rakagumisa kuti: 'Kurwa kupi nokupi kunonangana nokuparadza maguta ose kana kuti nzvimbo dzakakura pamwe chete nevagari vawo imhosva kuna Mwari nomunhu pachake. Inokodzera kushorwa pasina mubvunzo uye kusingazezi.' Uye mutsamba yavafundisi muna 1983, mabhishopi eKaturike eU.S. akawedzera kuti: 'Kutuka uku, mukutonga kwedu, kunoshanda kunyange pakutsiva kushandiswa kwezvombo zvinorova maguta evavengi pashure pokunge edu atokundwa.' Vakaenderera mberi vachiti, kana chimwe chinhu chiri unzenza kuita, kutyisidzirawo hazvina kunaka. Mumharidzo ku2014 Vienna Conference pamusoro peHumanitarian Impact yeNuclear Weapons, Papa Francis vakazivisa kuti: 'Kudzivisa nyukliya uye kutyisidzira kwekuparadzwa kwakavimbisana hakugoni kuva hwaro hwetsika yehukama uye kugarisana murunyararo pakati pevanhu nenyika.'

United Methodist Council of Bishops inoenda mberi kupfuura vamwe vavo veKaturike, vakagumisa muna 1986 kuti: 'Kudzivisa hakuchafaniri kugamuchira chikomborero chechechi, kunyange sechibvumikiso chechinguvana chekuchengetedzwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya.' In Hondo Yakarurama (1968), munyori wetsika dzechiPurotesitendi Paul Ramsey akakumbira vaverengi vake kuti vafungidzire kuti tsaona dzemotokari mune rimwe guta dzakangoerekana dzaderedzwa kusvika pazero, mushure mezvo zvakaonekwa kuti munhu wose akanga adikanirwa kusunga mucheche achangoberekwa kubhampa yemotokari imwe neimwe.

Zvichida chinhu chinonyanya kutyisa pamusoro pekudzivirira kwenyukireya inzira dzayo dzakawanda dzekukundikana. Kupesana nezvinofungwa nevakawanda, kashoma kangangoita 'bolt out of the blue' (BOOB) kurwisa. Zvichakadaro, kune njodzi dzakakura dzine chekuita nehondo yakajairika, netsaona kana kushandiswa kusingatenderwi, kushandisa zvisina musoro (kunyangwe zvichigona kupokana kuti. ani kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya kungave kusina musoro) kana maaramu enhema, akaitika nguva nenguva anotyisa, uye anogona kutungamira 'kutsiva' kurwisa kwanga kusati kwaitika. Pakavewo netsaona dzakawanda 'dzakatyoka museve' - kubaiwa netsaona, kupfura, kuba kana kurasikirwa kwechombo chenyukireya - pamwe nemamiriro ezvinhu akadai seboka rehanzi, kuparuka kwepombi yegasi kana zvikanganiso zvekombuta zvakadudzirwa se kupfurwa kwehasha.

Izvo zviri pamusoro zvinotsanangura chete zvimwe zvekusakwana uye njodzi chaidzo dzinounzwa nekudzivirira, iyo dzidziso fulcrum inobata nyukireya Hardware, software, deployments, kuunganidza uye kukwira. Kubvisa pfungwa - kuenda padzidziso yebhaibheri - yekudzivisa hazvizove nyore, asi zvakare kurarama mukutyisidzirwa kwekuparadzwa kwepasirese. Sekunyora kwakaita mudetembi TS Eliot, kunze kwekunge uri pamusoro pemusoro wako, unoziva sei kuti wakareba sei? Uye kana zvasvika pakudzivirira kwenyukireya, isu tese tiri pamusoro pemisoro yedu.