Iyi Nyukliya Kuputsika Kunopera Nyika

Panguva yekukura kusawirirana pakati pesimba renyukireya - Russia neNATO kuEurope, uye US, North Korea, neChina kuAsia - Washington yakasimudza chinyararire chirairo chayo chombo chehondo yenyukireya kugadzira, maererano nevatungamiriri vesainzi vatatu veAmerica, "chaizvo izvo ndaitarisira kuona, kana nyika ine zvombo zvenyukireya yaironga kuva nehunyanzvi hwekurwa uye kuhwina hondo yenyukireya nekubvisa vavengi nekutanga kushamisika. "

Kunyora mu Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists, Hans Kristensen, director weNuclear Information Project yeFederation of American Scientists, Matthew McKinzie weNational Resources Defense Council, uye nyanzvi yezvehumhizha uye nyanzvi yekuromba mimhanzi Theodore Postol anogumisa kuti "pasi pechidzitiro chechirongwa chepamutemo chekurwiswa kwehondo chakawedzera. , "Mauto eU.S. akawedzera kwazvo" simba rekuuraya "remauto ake zvekuti" izvozvi riparadze maRussia eICBM silos. "

Iko kukwidziridzwa - chikamu chemubatanidzwa waObama's $ 1 trillion yemazuva ano masimba eAmerica - inobvumidza Washington kuti iparadze zvombo zvepasi rose zveRussia, ichiri kuchengetedza 80 muzana yehondo dzeU.S. Kana Russia ikasarudza kutsiva, yaizodzikiswa nemadota.

Kukundikana Kwekufungidzira

Chero hurukuro yehondo yenyukireya inosangana nematambudziko akakura akati wandei.

Chekutanga, zvakanetsa kufungidzira kana kunzwisisa zvazvaireve muhupenyu chaihwo. Isu takangove nekukonana kumwe kunobatanidza zvombo zvenyukireya - kuparadzwa kweHiroshima neNagasaki mu1945 - uye ndangariro dzezviitiko izvozvo dzadzikira makore apfuura. Chero zvazvingaitika, mabhomba maviri akakwiridzira maguta iwayo eJapan haafanani neane simba rekuuraya rezvombo zvenyukireya zanhasi.

Hiroshima bhomba rakaputika nesimba re15 kilotons, kana kt. Bhomba reNagasaki raive nesimba rakawanda, panenge pa18 kt. Pakati pavo, ivo vakauraya vanhu ve215,000. Kusiyana neizvi, chombo chengwanda nyowani chiri muUS artery nhasi, W76, ine simba rinoputika re100 kt. Inotevera inonyanya kujairika, iyo W88, inotakura 475-kt punch.

Rimwe dambudziko ndere kuti ruzhinji rwevanhu vanofunga kuti hondo yenyukireya haigoneke nekuti mativi ese angangoparara. Iri ndiro zano riri shure kweiyo Mutally Assured Kuparadza, anonzi "MAD."

Asi MAD haisi dzidziso yeuto reUS. "Kurwisa kwekutanga" kurwisa kwagara kuri musimboti pakuronga kwemauto eUS, kusvika nguva pfupi yapfuura. Nekudaro, pakanga pasina vimbiso yekuti kurwiswa kwakadaro kwaizoremadza mupikisi zvekuti zvaisakwanisa - kana kusada, zvakapihwa mhedzisiro yekutsakatiswa kwakazara - kudzorera.

Isu rekumashure kwekurova kwekutanga - dzimwe nguva kunodaidzwa kuti “kurwisa mauto” - harisi kuparadza huwandu hwevaipikisa, asi kubvisa zvombo zvenyukireya, kana kuti kazhinji kazhinji. Anti-mishina masisitimu anozobva atora chisina kusimba kudzorera kurova.

Kubudirira kwetekinoroji kunoerekana kwaita ichi mukana chinhu chinonzi "super-fuze", iyo inobvumira kunyatsojekesa chaizvo kudzora kwehondo. Kana chinangwa chiri chekupusha guta, kurongeka kwakadai hakuna musoro. Asi kutora kunze kwakasimbiswa missile silo kunoda warhead kuti ishandise simba reinogona 10,000 mapaundi pachiyero metch pane chinangwa.

Kusvika kusvikira iyo 2009 yekuvandudza chirongwa, iyo chete nzira yekuita iyo yaive yekushandisa iyo yakawanda zvakanyanya simba - asi yakaganhurwa muhuwandu - W88 warhead. Yakagadzirirwa neiyo-super-fuze, zvisinei, iyo diki W76 inogona ikozvino kuita basa, kusunungura iyo W88 kune mamwe matangi.

Netsika, zvombo-zvakavakirwa zvivakwa zvakapusa kupfuura zvigadzirwa zvegungwa, asi izvo zvakapfuura zvine njodzi yekutanga kurova kupfuura izvo zvekupedzisira, nekuti vafambisi vechikepe vakanaka kuhwanda. Iyo nyowani yepamusoro-nyowani haina kuwedzera iko kurongeka kweTrident II yepasi pemvura, asi inogadzira iyo nekunyatso kwanaita pfuti uko. "Panyaya yehondo ye100-kt Trident II," vanyora vesaenzi vatatu, "kunyanyisa kunoteedzera simba rekuuraya renyukireya yarinoitirwa."

Isati yaiswa-yepamusoro-soro basa, chete 20 muzana yeUS subs yaive neine simba rekuparadza zvekare simba rekupomba. Nhasi, vese vanokwanisa.

Trident II makoronyera kazhinji anotakura kubva kune mana kusvika mashanu mahedra, asi anogona kuwedzera izvozvo kusvika masere. Nepo iyo missile inokwanisa kutora vakawanda se 12 warheads, iyo shanduko ingangotyora zvibvumirano zvazvino. US submarines parizvino anoratidza nezve 890 warheads, ayo 506 ari W76s uye 384 ndeye W88s.

Iwo ma land-based ICBMs ndeMinuteman III, imwe neimwe yakashongedzwa nema warheads matatu - 400 yakazara - kubva pa300 kt kusvika 500 kt imwechete. Kune zvakare mhepo uye yegungwa-yakatangwa nyukireya akaputirwa makomba nemabhomba. Iyo Tomahawk yekufambisa makomba yakangobaya Siria inogona kugadzirirwa kutakura nehondo yenyukireya.

The Technology Gap

Iyo-super-fuze inowedzerawo mukana wekupokana netsaona yenyukireya.

Parizvino, nyika yakwanisa kudzivirira hondo yenyukireya, kunyangwe munguva ye1962 Chunan missile dambudziko rakasvika padyo nekushungurudza. Pave paine zvekare zviitiko zvinotyisa apo US nemauto eSoviet akaenda kuzere kuzere nekuda kwemifananidzo isina kunaka radar kana tepi yekuyedza yaifungidzirwa nemumwe munhu kuti yaive chaiyo. Kunyange varwi vachidzikisira zviitiko izvi, aimbova Sekiritari wezveDziviriro William Perry Anopokana kuti zvakanaka rombo kuti isu takadzivisa kuchinjaniswa kwenyukireya - uye kuti mukana wehondo yenyukireya wakakura nhasi kupfuura zvaive pakureba kweCold War.

Muchikamu, izvi imhaka yekukonana tekinoroji pakati peUS neRussia.

MunaJanuary 1995, yekutanga yambiro yekuRussia paKola peninsula yakanhonga rokwe kubva kuchitsuwa cheNorway chaitaridza sokunge kuti chairova Russia. Muchokwadi, dombo raive rakananga kuNorth Pole, asi reRussia radhi rakarimaka sekisiki yeTrident II inouya ichibva kuNorth Atlantic. Mamiriro ezvinhu acho ainyatsojeka. Nepo vamwe vakatanga kurova vachiratidzira kufungidzira huwandu hwakakura hwekupotsera, vamwe vanosheedzera kuti vadzivise rakakura warhead pamusoro pechinangwa panguva inenge 800 mamaira akakwira. Kukura kukuru kwemagetsi emagetsi anoonekwa nekuputika kwakadaro kungapofumadza kana kuremadza radar system pamusoro penzvimbo yakafara. Izvo zvaizoteverwa nekutanga kurova.

Panguva iyoyo, kudzikisira misoro kwaikunda uye vanhu vekuRussia vakarega kusvinura kwavo, asi kwemaminitsi mashoma wachi yezuva rekupedzisira rakafamba zvakanyanya kusvika pakati peusiku.

Maererano Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists, dambudziko re1995 rinoratidza kuti Russia haina "inovimbika uye inoshanda yepasirese satellite yekuyambira nyevero." Panzvimbo iyoyo, Moscow yakatarisana nekuvaka masosi-epasi anopa maRussia nguva yekunyevera kupfuura iwo anoenderana nesatellite. Zvinoreva izvozvo ndezvekuti apo US ichave ine 30 maminetsi enguva yekuyambira kuti aongorore kana kurwiswa kuri kuitika chaiko, maRussia angave aine 15 maminetsi kana mashoma.

Izvo, maererano nemagazini, zvingangoreva kuti "hutungamiri hweRussia hwaisazova nesarudzo diki asi kuendesa vamiriri venyukireya masimba ekudzora matanho ekudzora," mamiriro ezvinhu angave ari mukuchengetedza nyika dzese.

Kana, kana iri nyaya, iyo nyika.

A tsvakurudzo yakawana kuti hondo yenyukireya pakati peIndia nePakistan ichishandisa Hiroshima - yakakura-zvombo ichagadzira nyowani munguva yechando izvo zvaizoita kuti zvisabvirire kukura gorosi muRussia neCanada uye nekucheka mvura yekuAsia Monsoon inonaya ne10 muzana Mhedzisiro yacho yaizove inosvika kumamiriyoni e100 kufa nekufa kwenzara. Fungidzira kuti mhedzisiro yacho yaizovei kana zvombo zvaive saizi yakashandiswa neRussia, China, kana US

Kune vaRussian, kukwidziridzwa kwemahombekombe egungwa e-US ane super-fuze ichave chirongwa chinotyisa. Ne "kuchinjisa mukana wechikepe chengarava chinogona kuenda kunogadzirisa nzvimbo dzekuvhurisa pedyo nekwavari kuita kupfuura zvombo zvakavakirwa pasi," masayendisiti matatu anogumisa, "mauto eUS akawana mukana wakakura kwazvo wekutanga kushamisa kutanga kurwisa Russia ICBM Sirasi. "

Iyo US Ohio kirasi yepasi pemugungwa ine zvombo 24 Trident II makomba, akatakura akawanda se192 warheads. Iwo marombo anogona kuvhurwa mune isingasviki miniti.

MaRussia neChinese ane mabhomba epfuti anopfura zvakare, asi kwete seakawanda, uye mamwe ari pedyo nekushayikwa. IUS yakadyara zvakare nyika dzepasi pemakungwa nemakungwa nema network emagetsi kuti vatevedze izvo subs. Chero zvazvingaitika, maRussia kana maChinese angadzore here kana vaiziva kuti US ichiramba yakachengeta simba rayo renyukireya? Vanotarisana nesarudzo yekuzviuraya kwenyika kana kubatirira moto, vanogona kusarudza imwe yekutanga.

Chimwe chinhu muchirongwa ichi chemazuva ano chine Russia neChina chisina kusarudzika ndicho chisarudzo chakatemerwa naObama chekuisa masisitimendi muEurope neAsia, uye kuendesa Aegis ngarava-inochengetedza masisitimu enharaunda kubva kumahombekombe ePacific neAtlantic. Kubva pamaonero eMososia - neBeijing zvakare - iwo ma-interceptors aripo kuti atore iwo mashoma mashoma angangopotsa kurohwa kwekutanga.

Muchokwadi, masisitimu anogadzirisa akanaka. Kana vachinge vatama kubva pamapuranga ekudhirowa, kugona kwavo kukuru kunodonha zvakanyanya. Chokwadi, mazhinji acho haagoni kurova parutivi rwehombe. Asi haisiyo mukana wekuti maChinese nemaRussia vagone kutora.

Vachitaura paSt. Petersburg International Forum munaJune 2016, Mutungamiri weRussia, VaValdimir Putin, vakapomera kuti US antimissile system muPoland neRomania yanga isiri kunangana neIran, asi kuRussia neChina. "Iranian iratidziro haipo, asi masisitimendi ekudzivirira akaramba achiripo." Akawedzera kuti, "kurwisa kuchengetedzwa kwechimwe chinhu chinhu chehurongwa hwese hwekukuvadza kwemauto."

Kufukura Arms Hondo

Njodzi pano ndeyekuti zvibvumirano zvemaoko zvichatanga kusunungurwa kana nyika dzikafunga kuti dzakangoerekana dzava panjodzi. Kune maRussia neChinese, mhinduro nyore yekubudirira kweAmerica kugadzira makomba akawanda nema warheads, uye zvibvumirano zvichamiswa.

Rutsva rweRussia rwekufamba nechikepe runogona kutemesa Musimboti-Range Nuclear Forces Chibvumirano, asiwo mhinduro yechisikigo kune izvo, kubva pakufunga kweMoscow, kutyisa kufambira mberi kwehunyanzvi neU.S. Dai hutongi hwaObama hwakadzora sarudzo ye2002 naGeorge W. Bush's. manejimendi kuendesa unilaterally kubva kuAnti-Ballistic Missile Chibvumirano, iyo itsva cruise inogona kunge isina kumbobvira yakaiswa.

Pane akatiwandei matanho apamberi angatorwa neUS neRussia kuti asarudze kusagadzikana kuri kuitika. Kutanga, kubvisa zvombo zvenyukireya kubva mubvudzi ravo-iro rinokonzeresa zvaizokurumidza kuderedza mukana wehondo yenyukireya. Izvo zvinogona kuteverwa nechisungo che "Chekutanga usashandise" nezvombo zvenyukireya.

Kana izvi zvikasaitika, zvingangodaro zvakakonzera kukurumidza kwemaoko enyukireya. "Handizive kuti izvi zvichapera sei," Putin akaudza nhume dzeSt. "Chandinoziva ndechekuti tichazoda kuzvidzivirira."

Kunze kwePolice In Focus muongorori Conn Hallinan anogona kuverengerwa www.wwhatspppostthewweblog.wordpress.com uye www.neworleanshamptoninns.com. Runyorwa zvakare mvumo kubva Mutemo Wekune imwe nyika Mukukuru.