North Korea: Zvinodhura zveHondo, Zvakaverengwa

VaDonald Trump vari kufunga nezvehondo idzo dzaigona kuwedzera chero chinhu chingafungirwa nevavakatangira ivo.

Akakanda amai vevanhu vese mabhomba muAfghanistan, uye ari kufunga amai vehondo dzese ku Middle East. Ari kurova Saudi Arabia Hondo inoparadza muYemen. Vazhinji evangelike vari kugamuchira kuziviswa kwake kwekuzivikanwa kweU.S. kweguta guru reIsrael sechiratidzo chekuti kupera kwemazuva kwaswedera. Kunetsana neIran kuri kuda kupisa kutanga kwegore rinouya kana VaTrump, mukushaikwa kwenyonganiso, kuzadzisa chipikirwa chake kubvarura chibvumirano chenyukireya icho vatungamiriri veObama vakashanda nesimba kuti vataurirane uye runyararo rwuchitsigirwa nerutsigiro rwakakosha.

Asi hapana Hondo yakawana zvinoenzana nekusaenzana nekukonana neNorth Korea. Kuno kuWashington, pundits nevagadziri vemutemo vari kutaura nezve "hwindo remwedzi mitatu" mukati umo hutongi hwaTrump hunogona kumisa North Korea kuti iwane mukana wekurova maguta eUS nezvombo zvenyukireya.

Iwo fungidziro anonzi anouya kubva kuCIA, kunyangwe mutumwa ari asingavimbike John Bolton, aimbove murwi wemoto wekuwisira mumiriri weUS kuUN. Bolton akashandisa fungidziro iyi kuti aite iyo kesi yekuratidzira kurwisa kuNorth Korea, chirongwa icho Trump anacho zvakare zvakataurwa kutorwa zvakanyanyisa.

North Korea, zvakare, yakazivisa kuti Hondo "ichokwadi." Mushure meonguva pfupi yapfuura nemauto eUS-South Korea muchiuto, mutauriri kubva kuInternational Ministry muPyongyang akati, "Mubvunzo wasara ndouyu: hondo ichamuka rini?"

Iyi aura yekusaverengeka inofanira kuisa ekudzivirira kwekupokana neNorth Korea pamusoro peiyo inokurumidza yekuita chirongwa chemasangano ese epasirese, vanobiridzira, uye vagari vane hanya.

Yambiro pamusoro pemitengo yehondo inogona kushaisa vanhu vanoda Kim Jong Un nehutongi hwake kunze zvisinei nemhedzisiro (uye inenge hafu yeRepublican totsigira ichirovedzera kwekurova). Asi fungidziro yekutanga yeyevanhu, hupfumi, uye zvakatipoteredza maricho ehondo anofanirwa kuita kuti vanhu vakakwanise vafunge kaviri, kukurudzira zvakanyanya kurwisa zviitiko nemauto ese, uye rutsigiro. kuedza kwemutemo kudzivirira VaTrump kutanga chirongwa chekurova pasina mvumo yemusangano.

Kufungidzira kwakadai kwekusiyana kwakasiyana kunogona kushandisawo sosiiro yekufamba nhatu - kurwisa-hondo, hutongi hwehupfumi, uye zvakatipoteredza - kuuya pamwe mukupokana nezvingaisa kumashure zvikonzero zvedu, nepasi rose zvakakura, kuzvizvarwa zvinotevera. .

Haisiri nguva yekutanga kuti United States ive padanho rekuita chikanganiso chakatanhamara. Mari dzehondo yekupedzisira dzinogona kutibatsira kudzivirira imwe inotevera?

Wakamira Kudzokorora?

Dai vanhu vekuAmerica vaiziva kuti iyo Hondo yeIraq yaizoda kubhadhara marii, zvimwe vangadai vasina kuenda pamwe nekufora kwaBush kuenda kuhondo. Zvichida Congress ingadai yakawedzera kurwa.

Invasion inowedzera akafanotaura kuti Hondo ingave “nzira yechingwa.” Yakanga isiri. Pamusoro pe25,000 vagari vemuIraq vakafa nekuda kwekupinda kwekutanga uye nezve 2,000 mauto emubatanidzwa akafa achishandisa 2005. Asi kwaingova kutanga. Ne 2013, mumwe wevagari vemu100,000 vekuIraq vange vafa nekuda kwemhirizhonga inoenderera mberi, maererano kune inofungidzirwa fungidziro yeIraq Muviri Chesiti, pamwe na imwe mauto emubatanidzwa we2,800 (kunyanya American).

Ipapo kwaive nemitengo yehupfumi. Asati apaza Iraq, iyo Bush manejimendi inofungidzirwa kuti iyo hondo yaizongotenderedza kutenderera $ 50 billion. Uku kwaive kufunga kwekuda. Kuverenga chaiko kwakazouya gare gare.

Vangu vandinoshanda navo kuInstitute for Policy Studies inofungidzirwa mu2005 kuti bhajeti rehondo yeIraq pakupedzisira rinouya nemadhora zviuru mazana mana emadhora. Mubhuku ravo re700 Hondo Yevatatu Trillion, Joseph Stiglitz naLinda Bilmes vakapa imwe fungidziro yakakwira, yavakazodzokorora zvakare kumusoro kumusoro kunosvika kumadhora 5 trillion.

Muviri unoverengerwa uye huwandu hwehuchokwadi hwehupfumi hwekufungidzira hwakakanganisa maitiro nemaAmerican ekuona Hondo yeIraq. Ruzhinji rutsigiro rwehondo rwaive rakakomberedza 70 muzana panguva yekupinda kwe2003. Mu2002, iyo musangano wezvemusangano kubvumidza mauto kurwisa Iraq kwakapfuura Imba 296 ku133 uye Seneti 77-23.

Ne 2008, zvakadaro, vanhu vekuAmerica vavhota vaitsigira kutungamirwa kwaBarack Obama muchikamu nekuda kwekushora kwavo kupokana. Vazhinji vevanhu ava vakatsigira hondo - a ruzhinji rweSeneti, yaimbova neoconservative Francis Fukuyama - vaitaura kuti kana vaiziva mu2003 izvo zvavakazodzidzira nezvehondo, vangadai vakatora imwe nzvimbo.

Mu2016, havazi vashoma vanhu vakatsigira Donald Trump nekuda kwekusavimbika kwake pamusoro pemapurisa eU.S. apfuura. Semutungamiri wenyika yeRepublican, Trump akazivisa Hondo yeIraq kukanganisa uye kunyange kunyepedzera kuti haana kumbobvira atsigira kupwiswa. Chakanga chiri chikamu cheyedzo yake kuti atore kure kubva kune mashesi mukati mebato rake uye "globalists" muDemocratic Party. Vamwe vemabharari kunyange inotsigirwa VaTrump se "anopesana nehondo" mumiriri.

VaTrump varikuumba izvozvi kuti vave zvakasiyana. Ari kuwedzera US kubatanidzwa muSyria, surging mu Afghanistan, uye kuwedzera kushandiswa kwema drones mu "kurwa kwekutya."

Asi kurwira kuri kuuya neNorth Korea ndeyekusiyana kwakasiyana kwehukuru. Mari yaanofungidzirwa yakakwira zvekuti kunze kwaDonald Trump iye, akatsunga zvakanyanya vateveri vake ve hawwat, uye vashoma vekunze vanotsigira seJapan Shinzo Abe, hondo inoramba iri sarudzo isingafarirwe. Uye zvakadaro, zvese North Korea neUnited States zviri pane yekurovera kosi, inokurudzirwa nepfungwa yekukwira uye zvinoenderana nezvikanganiso zvekusanzwisisika.

Nekuita chokwadi chekuti iyo ingangove mari yehondo neNorth Korea inozivikanwa, zvisinei, zvichiri kugona kunyengerera hurumende yeUS kuti ibve pamabhureki.

Zvinodhura Zvemunhu

Shanduko yenyukireya pakati peUnited States neNorth Korea yaizoenda kumachati maererano nehupenyu hwakarasika, hupfumi hwakaparara, uye nharaunda yakaparara.

Muna wake apocalyptic mamiriro in The Washington Post, nyanzvi yekudzora maoko Jeffrey Lewis anofungidzira kuti, mushure mekupararira kwakawanda kweUnited States bhomba, North Korea inoburitsa zvombo zvenyukireya gumi nemaviri kuUnited States. Kunyangwe paine kumwe kukanganisa kunongedza nehafu inoshanda masystem ekudzivirira system, kurwiswa kuchiri kugona kuuraya vanhu vane miriyoni muNew York chete uye imwe 300,000 yakakomberedza Washington, DC. Lewis anopedzisa achiti:

Pentagon yaisazomboedza kuedza kuita huwandu hwevanhu vakauraiwa muNorth Korea nemhepo huru yemusangano. Asi pakupedzisira, vakuru vakuru vakagumisa, angangoita mamirioni e2 maAmerican, maSouth Koreans, uye maJapan akanga afa muhondo yenyukireya isingadzivisiki ye2019.

Kana North Korea ichishandisa zvombo zvenyukireya padyo nepamba, huwandu hwekufa hwainge hwanyanya: vanopfuura mamirioni maviri vakafa muSeoul neTokyo chete, maererano kufungidzira kwakadzama pa38North.

Mari inobhadharwa nevanhu yekunetsana neNorth Korea ingangove inokatyamadza kunyangwe zvombo zvenyukireya zvikasapinda mumifananidzo uye nyika yeUS haizombokundwa. Kudzoka mu1994, apo Bill Clinton aive achifunga nezve kurova North Korea, mutungamiriri wemauto eUS muSouth Korea. akaudza mutungamiri kuti mhedzisiro yacho ingangove yemiriyoni yakafa mukati uye dzakapoterera koreji yeKorea.

Nhasi, Pentagon inofungidzirwa kuti vanhu ve20,000 vaizofa zuva rega rega rekupokana kwakadaro. Izvo zvakavakirwa pane chokwadi chekuti 25 mamirioni vanhu vanogara mukati uye vakapoterera Seoul, iri pakati pechikamu cheNorth Korea mirefu mireza mireza mifananidzo, 1,000 yeipi anowanikwa kuchamhembe kweDesilitarized Zone.

Vakakuvadzwa vaisazove veKorea. Kune futi nezve 38,000 mauto eUS akamiswa muSouth Korea, zvakare imwe 100,000 vamwe maAmerican kugara munyika. Saka, Hondo ichangopihwa kune peninsula yeKorea ingangove yakafanana nekuisa panjodzi yehuwandu hwevaAmerican vanogara muguta rakakura saSirakuse kana Waco.

Uye iyi fungidziro yePentagon yakangwara. Kufanotaura kwakanyanya kupfuura 100,000 yakafa mune yekutanga 48 maawa. Kunyangwe huwandu uhwu hwekupedzisira hahuna basa rekushandiswa kwemakemikari warheads, mune izvo zviitiko vanowanzo kufa vanosvika mumamirioni (kunyangwe kumwe kufungidzira kwakawandisa, kune hapana uchapupu iyo North Korea yakagadzira zvombo zvoutachiona).

Mune chero mamiriro ezvinhu ehondo akadaro, vagari vekuNorth Korea vaizofawo muhuwandu, sezvo nhamba huru yevagari vemuIraq neAfghan vakafa mukati mekurangana. Mune a tsamba yakakumbirwa naReds. Ted Lieu (D-CA) naRuben Gallego (DA), Joint Chiefs yeVashandi yakajekesa kuti kurwisa pasi kwaizofanirwa kuwana nekuparadza nzvimbo dzenyukireya. Izvi zvaizowedzera huwandu hwevanhu vese vakakuvadzwa kuUS neNorth Korea.

Pazasi mutsara: Kunyange Hondo yakaganhurirwa kune zvombo zvakajairwa uye kune iyo peninsula yeKorea yaizoguma,, mune zvishoma, makumi ezviuru akafa uye zvimwe mukana wevakafa pedyo nemiriyoni.

Mari Yehupfumi

Izvo zvakati zvakati kuti zvakaoma kufungidzira mutengo wehupfumi wekukonana kupi nekupi kwepenisi yeKorea. Zvekare, ihondo ipi neipi inosanganisira zvombo zvenyukireya yaizokonzeresa kukuvadzwa kwehupfumi. Saka, ngatishandisei zvakanyanya kufungidzira fungidziro yakabatana neyakajairika hondo iyo inongotenderedzwa kuKorea chete.

Chero ipi fungidziro inofanira kufunga nezvehupfumi hwepamberi yeSouth Korea nzanga. Zvinoenderana neGDP kufungidzira kwe2017, South Korea ndiyo 12th hupfumi hukuru pasi rose, kuseri kweRussia. Uyezve, Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva ndiyo nzvimbo ine hupfumi zvakanyanya pasirese. Hondo pamupendero weKorea ingakanganisa hupfumi hweChina, Japan, neTaiwan zvakare. Hupfumi hwepasi rese hwaizotora chakakosha.

Anonyora Anthony Fensom in Kufarira Kwenyika:

Kudonha kwe50 muzana muSouth Korea's GDP kunogona kugogodza muzana muzana kubva Pasi rose GDP, apo pachave nekukanganisika kwakanyanya kutenderera kwekutengeserana.

South Korea yakabatanidzwa zvakanyanya mumatunhu nekugadzira epasi rese zvigadzirwa, izvo zvinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya nekusawirirana kukuru. Capital Economics inoona Vietnam seyanyanya kukanganisa, nekuti inogadzira 20 muzana yezvinhu zvayo zvepakati kubva kuSouth Korea, asi China inopa pamusoro pe10 muzana, nepo vamwe vavakidzani veAsia vangakanganiswa.

Uyezve funga nezvemamwe mari yekuwedzera kwevapoteri. Germany yega yakapedza kupfuura $ 20 bhiriyoni yekugara kwevapoteri mu2016. Kufumuka kubva kuNorth Korea, nyika ine vanhu vazhinji kupfuura Suriya yaive mu2011, inogona kuve yakafanana nemamiriyoni kana hondo yemunyika ikatanga, nzara ikavapo, kana nyika ikaparara. China iri chivakwa misasa yevapoteri pamuganho wayo neNorth Korea - zvingangoitika. Vese China neSouth Korea vakaomerwa nekugadza iyo defector kubuda kunze sezvazviri - uye izvo chete zvakatenderedza 30,000 kumaodzanyemba uye chimwe chinhu chakafanana neChina.

Iye zvino ngatitarisei kune chaiyo mari yekuUnited States. Mari yemabasa ehondo muIraq - Operation Iraqi Rusununguko uye Operation Nyowani Dawn - yaive $ 815 bhiriyoni kubva ku2003 kunyangwe 2015, izvo zvinosanganisira mauto mabasa, kuvakazve, kudzidziswa, rubatsiro rwekunze, uye veterans 'hutano hwakanaka.

Panyaya yekushanda kwemauto, United States iri kupokana, papepa, uto reNorth Korea katatu izvo Saddam Hussein akanzura mu2003. Zvekare, papepa, North Korea ine zvimwe zvakapinza zvombo zvakare. Mauto, zvakadaro, ari kushomadzwa, kune kushomeka kwemafuta kune iwo mabhuru uye matangi, uye akawanda masisitimu anoshaya nzvimbo. Pyongyang akateedzera kudzivirira kwenyukireya muchikamu nekuti iko zvino kuri kusagadzikana kwakadai maererano nezvombo zvezvombo zvakaenzaniswa neSouth Korea (tisingataure mauto eU.S. muPacific). Izvo zvinokwanisika kuti kurova kwekutanga kunogona kubereka mhedzisiro yakafanana neyekutanga salvo muIraq War.

Asi kunyangwe hazvo hutsinye hutongi hwaKim Jong Un huri, huwandu hwevanhu vangasatambira mauto eAmerica nemaoko akavhurika. An kupandukira Kufananidza nezvakaitika mushure meHondo yeIraq zvingangoitika, izvo zvaizopedzisira zvaita kuti United States iwedzere kurasikirwa nehupenyu nemari.

Asi kunyangwe pasina kuwanikwa inshuwarisi, mari yekushanda kwemauto inozoitwa mashoma nemitengo yekuvakazve. Mari yekuvakazve yeSouth Korea, nyika yakakura kwazvo maindasitiri, inogona kunge yakanyanya kudarika muIraq kana zvechokwadi Afghanistan. United States yakashandisa madhora angangoita mazana mana emadhora 60 pakutanga mukuvakazve mushure mehondo muhari muIraq (yakawandisa ichitambisa kubudikidza nehuwori), uye bhiri rekusunungura nyika kubva kuIslam State inomhanya padyo ne $ 150 bhiriyoni.

Wedzera kune izvo zvakakura mari yekugadzirisa North Korea, iyo pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu akanakisa angangoita $ 1 trillion (iyo inofungidzirwa mitengo yekubatana) asi izvo zvaizodaro mhanza kusvika $ 3 trillion mumashure mehondo inoparadza. Kazhinji, South Korea yaizotarisirwa kubhadhara mari idzi, asi kwete kana nyika iyoyo yakange yakanganiswazve nehondo.

Kupedzera nguva pakushanda kwemauto uye pamusoro pekurwazve-kurwazve kuvaka kwaizosundira chikwereti cheUnited States mudanho redzimba. Mukana wemubhadharo - mari iyo ingadai yakashandiswa pazvivakwa, dzidzo, hutano - inokwanisika. Hondo ingangoisa America mukutambira.

Pazasi mutsara: Kunyangwe kurwa kwakatarwa neNorth Korea kwaizongobhadhara United States mari inodarika $ 1 trillion maererano nemauto nemauto nekuvakazve, uye zvakanyanyisa zvisina kunangana nekuda kwezvikonzero kuhupfumi hwenyika.

Mari Yemamiriro ekunze

Panyaya yekukanganisa kwezvakatipoteredza, hondo yenyukireya ingangove nenjodzi. Kunyangwe kushomeka kwenyukireya kuchinjanisa kunogona kukonzera a kudonha kwakakosha mukudziya kwepasirese - nekuda kwemarara nemuto unokandwa mumhepo unovhara zuva - izvo zvinokanda kugadzirwa kwechikafu chepanyika munyatwa.

Kana United States ikaedza kutora zvombo zvenyukireya yeNokia Korea uye zvivakwa, kunyanya izvo zvakavigwa pasi pevhu, ichaedzwa zvikuru kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kutanga. "Kugona kutora chirongwa cheNyukireya yenyukireya ishoma, paine zvombo zvakajairwa," Anotsanangura pamudyandigere US Air Force General Sam Gardiner. Panzvimbo pezvo, hutongi hwaTrump hwaizotendeukira kune "zvombo-zvakaoma-kuuraya" zvombo zvakadzingwa kubva kune zvimbambaira zvepasi pevhu pedyo neKorea.

Kunyangwe kana North Korea isingakwanise kutsiva, idzi danho rekunyepedzera rinotakura njodzi dzevakafa vazhinji. Kuburitswa kweradiation - kana kuuraya vamiriri, kana paine kurova pane zvombo zvemakemikari zvombo - zvinogona kuuraya mamirioni uye kupa maturakiti makuru epasi asingagadzike zvichienderana nehuwandu hwezvinhu (goho, kudzika kwekuputika, mamiriro ekunze). according kubatanidzwa kweVanoongorora Masayendisiti.

Kunyangwe hondo yakajairwa yairwa chete kuPolish peninsula yaizokanganisa mamiriro ekunze. Yakajairwa kurwiswa kwendege muNorth Korea, ichiteverwa nekutsiva yakanangana neSouth Korea, yaizopedzisira yasvibisa maturakiti akakomberedzwa enzvimbo dzakakomberedza simba nemakemikari masisitimu nekuparadza nzvimbo dzisina kusimba (senge bio-kusiana Demilitarised Zone). Iko kushandiswa kwezvekupedza uranium zvombo neUnited States, sezvayakaita mu2003, yaizokonzeresa kupararira kwezvakatipoteredza nehutano.

Pazasi mutsara: Hondo ipi neipi yapasi peninsula yeKorea inogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya nharaunda, asi kuedza kutora North Korea inyukireya inogona kuve nenjodzi.

Kudzivirira Hondo

Kwaizovawo nemamwe madhora ehondo anopindirana nekurwiswa kuNorth Korea. Sezvo ichipokana nehondo yeSouth Korea Mutungamiri Moon Jae-in, United States yaizomesa mubatanidzwa wayo nenyika iyoyo kusvika pakukanganisa. Utongi hwaTrump hwaizokanganisa mutemo wenyika pamwe nemasangano ekunze akaita seUnited Nations. Zvinokurudzira dzimwe nyika kusundira hunyanzvi parutivi nekutevera "mhinduro" zvemauto mumatunhu epasi.

Kunyangwe VaTrump vasati vatora chigaro, mari dzehondo pasi rese dzakange dzisingakwani. Sekureva kweInstitute for Economics uye Peace, nyika inoshandisa kupfuura $ 13 trillion pagore pane kunetsana, inoshanda kune angangoita 13 muzana yeGDP yepasi rose.

Kana United States ikaenda kuhondo neNorth Korea, inokanda izvo zviyero zvese kunze nepahwindo. Hakuna kumbove nehondo pakati pemasimba emagetsi. Hakuve nehondo yakakwana munzvimbo dzakabudirira zvehupfumi kwemakumi emakore. Mari yemunhu, yehupfumi, uye yemendenenzi ichave ichishamisa.

Hondo iyi haidzivirirwe.

Hutungamiri hweNorth Korea inoziva izvozvo, nekuti inotarisana nesimba rakakura, chero kukakavara kuri kuzviuraya chaiko. Pentagon inozivawo kuti, nekuti njodzi yekuuraya vanhu kumauto eUS nemabatanidzwa eUS yakakwira zvakanyanya, hondo haisi mumifaro yenyika yeUS. Secretary of Defense James Mattis inobvuma kuti Hondo neNorth Korea yaisazove nzira yekubika uye, zvechokwadi, ichave "njodzi."

Kunyangwe iyo yaTrump management yako yemberi yekutarisazve yeNorth Korea dambudziko raisabatanidza kupindira kwemauto kana shanduko yehurumende sekurudziro pamwe chete nekumanikidza kwakanyanya uye kubatanidzwa. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson akadaro ichangobva kutaurwa kuti Washington yakavhurwa hurukuro nePyongyang "pasina maumbirwo," shanduko yakakosha pakutaurirana matiki.

Zvichida panguva ino yezororo, Donald Trump achashanyirwa nemweya mizhinji yeKisimusi Yakare uye yeKisimusi Yemberi. Iwo mweya kubva zvekare uchamuyeuchidza zvakare nezvematambudziko ekudzivirira ehondo yeIraq. Gonyeti kubva munguva yemberi ichamuratidza nzvimbo dzakaparara dzeKorea peninsula, nzvimbo huru yemakuva, hupfumi hweUnited States, uye hupfumi hwenyika hwakakanganiswa.

Kana vari mweya weKisimusi Present, mweya uyo unotakura chisina chinhu uye chakashata chirahwe uye unomiririra rugare pasi pano, isu tiri mweya. Izvo zvine chekuita nerunyararo, kurongeka kwehupfumi, uye kutenderera kwezvakatipoteredza kuti tigozvinzwa, kuyeuchidza mutungamiri weUS pamwe nevatsigiri vake vekutona nezvenyaya dzemakakatanwa emangwana, kupanikira mhinduro, uye kukanda jecha mumagiya muchina wehondo.

Takaedza uye tikakundikana kudzivirira Hondo yeIraq. Tichine mukana wekudzivirira Hondo yechipiri yeKorea.