NaRichard E. Rubenstein, Transcend Media Service, September 5, 2022
Kutanga kwehondo yeRusso-Ukrainian muna Kukadzi 2022 yakaratidzira shanduko yatove kunguva itsva uye ine njodzi yekukonana kwepasirese. Hondo pachayo yainyanya kuita yekuMadokero, yekufarira kwekutanga kumapato epedyo uye maUkraine 'European neNorth America vatengesi. Asi zvakaputika mumamiriro ezvinhu ehukama huri kukurumidza kuparara pakati peUnited States, iyo inoramba ichiti hegemony yepasi rose, nevaimbove vadzivisi veCold War, Russia neChina. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kunetsana kwedunhu kungadai kwakagadziriswa kungave nenhaurirano dzenguva dzose kana nhaurirano dzekugadzirisa matambudziko pakati pemapato epedyo dzakave dzisingagadzirisiki, pasina mhinduro dzechimbichimbi.
Nenguva pfupi, kurwa pakati peRussia neUkraine kwakasimbisa hukama pakati peUnited States neEurope, uku ichisimbisa basa guru reUS mu "mubatanidzwa". Nepo mapato kune yakadanwa nevamwe "Hondo Yemashoko" akawedzera kushandisa kwavo kwechiuto uye shungu dzepfungwa, vamwe vaishuvira chinzvimbo cheSimba Guru seTurkey, India, Iran, neJapan vakaita mukana wechinguvana. Zvichakadaro, hondo yeUkraine yakatanga kutora chimiro che "gakava rakadzikama," neRussia ichibudirira mukutora nzvimbo zhinji dzeDonbas dzinotaura chiRussia, nepo US yakadurura mabhiriyoni emadhora muzvombo zvepamusoro-soro, hungwaru, uye kudzidziswa. kupinda mudura rezvombo zvehurumende yeKiev.
Sezvinowanzoitika, kubuda kwemaitiro matsva emakakatanwa kwakashamisa vaongorori, midziyo yavo yedzidziso yakagadzirwa kutsanangura nzira dzekutanga dzehondo. Nekuda kweizvozvo, nharaunda yakashandurwa haina kunyatsonzwisiswa uye kuedza kugadzirisa kusawirirana kwakange kusipo. Nezve hondo yeUkraine, semuenzaniso, huchenjeri hwakajairika hwaive hwekuti "kurwadzisana," pasina bato rinokwanisa kukunda zvachose asi nedivi rega rega richitambura zvakanyanya, rinopa rudzi urwu rwekukonana "kwakagadzirira kugadziriswa" kuburikidza. nhaurirano. (ona I. William Zartman, Ripeness Promoting Strategies) Asi pakanga paine matambudziko maviri nekuumbwa uku:
- Nzira itsva dzehondo dzakaganhurirwa dzinoratidzira kushandiswa kwakaganhurirwa kwezvombo zvounyanzvi hwepamusoro, nepo kuuraya kana kuti kukuvadza zviuru uye kuchikonzera kukuvadzwa kukuru kwepfuma nemhoteredzo, zvichiri kuderedza kuwanda kwokutambura kungadai kwakakarirwa neimwe nzira muhondo pakati pavavakidzani. Nepo nzvimbo yeDonbas yakaputika, vatengi vakadya muKiev. Nepo kuuraya kweRussia kuchikwira uye Madokero akatemera zvirango pahutongi hwaPutin, vagari veRFSR vakanakidzwa nerunyararo uye nebudiriro.
Uyezve, zvinopesana nenhema dzekuMadokero, nezvimwe zvishoma zvinosuruvarisa kunze kweRussia haina kuita kurwisa kwakakura kusingasaruri kune vagari veUkraine, uye maUkraine haana kutanga kurwiswa kwakawanda pazvinangwa kunze kweDonbas. Kuzvidzora uku kumativi ese (kwete kurerutsa kutyisa kwakakonzerwa nezviuru zvekufa kusingakoshi) kunoratidzika kunge kwakaderedza “kurwadziswa” kukuru kunodiwa kuunza “kunetsana kunokuvadzana.” Kufamba uku kune zvinganzi "hondo isina kukwana" inogona kuonekwa sechimwe cheshanduko yemauto yakatanga muUS mushure meHondo yeVietnam nekutsiviwa kwemauto akanyoreswa ne "vanozvipira" uye kutsiva kwemauto epasi nehunyanzvi hwepamusoro. mhepo, pfuti, uye zvombo zvemugungwa. Sezvineiwo, kudzikisira kutambura kusingatsungiririki kunokonzerwa nehondo kwakavhura musuwo wehondo isina kukwana sechinhu chinoshivirirwa, chinobvira chechigarire chemutemo wekunze weSimba Guru.
- Kurwira kwemuno muUkraine kwakapindirana nerumutsiro rwemakakatanwa ehumambo pasi rose, kunyanya apo United States yakafunga kugashira chikonzero chinopesana neRussia uye kudurura mabhiriyoni emadhora mune zvombo zvepamberi nehungwaru muhomwe yeKiev. Chikonzero chakataurwa chemhirizhonga iyi, sekureva kwevakuru vakuru vehurumende yeBiden, yaive "kunetesa" Russia semukwikwidzi wepasi rose uye kunyevera China kuti US icharamba chero nzira dzeChinese dzichipokana neTaiwan kana zvimwe zvinangwa zveAsia zvayaiona sehasha. Mhedzisiro yacho yaive yekushingisa mutungamiri weUkraine, Zelensky, kuti ataure kuti nyika yake haizombofi yakabvumirana neRussia pazvinhu zvinopokana (kwete kunyangwe nezvenyaya yeCrimea), uye kuti chinangwa chenyika yake "kukunda." Munhu haambozivi, chokwadika, apo mutungamiri anoparidza kukunda pamutengo upi noupi achasarudza kuti nyika yake yabhadhara zvakakwana uye kuti inguva yekutaura pamusoro pokuderedza kurasikirwa uye kuwedzera zvikomborero. Zvakadaro, pakunyora uku, hapana VaPutin kana VaZelensky vanoda kutaura shoko pamusoro pekugumisa kurwisana uku kusingagumi.
Uku kushaikwa kwechiziviso kwechipiri kwakabvumikisa kutodhura zvikuru kuchisakiso chorugare kupfuura kusanzwisiswa kwehondo dzisina kukwana. Nepo vatsigiri veWestern hegemony vachiwana nzira dzekururamisa rutsigiro rwemauto eUS neEuropean "democracies" vachipesana ne "autocracies" uye dzidziso dzeRussia dzakadai saAlexander Dugin kurota kweGreat Russia yakamutsidzirwa, dzidzo zhinji dzerunyararo uye nekunetsana dzinoramba dzakazvipira kuongorora kuzivikanwa- boka rinonetsekana senzira yekunzwisisa zvese zviri zviviri kupokana kwepasirese uye polarization yemukati. Dzimwe nyanzvi dzerunyararo dzakaona zvitubu zvitsva zvakakosha zvekupokana sekuparadza kwezvakatipoteredza, matambudziko ezvekurapa epasi rose, uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, asi vazhinji vanoramba vachifuratira dambudziko rehumambo uye kubuda kwemakakatanwa matsva pakati pevaizove hegemons. (Chimwe chakatanhamara pakusaona zviri papfupi ibasa raJohan Galtung, ane bhuku ra2009, Kudonha kweHumambo hweUS - Uye Zvino Chii? TRANSCEND University Press, zvino inoita sechiporofita.)
Uku kusatarisisa kweimperialism nekushanduka kwayo kune zvikonzero zvakadzika midzi munhoroondo yezvidzidzo zvemakakatanwa, asi mativi ayo ezvematongerwo enyika anofanirwa kuzivikanwa kana tichitarisira kukunda kusasimba kuri pachena kwemafambisirwo erunyararo kana tasangana nemakakatanwa akaita seRussia vs. Ukraine. uye NATO kana US nevabatsiri vayo vachipikisana neChina. Kunyanya kuMadokero, kupolarization yazvino yezvematongerwo enyika inokonzeresa kuburitsa maitiro maviri makuru: arudyi-bapiro populism ane zvisungo zveethno-nationalist uye isolationist, uye kuruboshwe-kutsamira centrism uyo ane pfungwa ndeye cosmopolitan uye globalist. Hapana maitiro anonzwisisa mafambiro ari kubuda emakakatanwa epasi rose kana ane chido chechokwadi mukugadzira mamiriro erunyararo rwepasi rose. The Right vanotsigira kudzivisa hondo dzisiri madikanwa, asi urudzi hwayo hunokunda kuzviparadzanisa; saka, vatungamiriri vebapiro rekurudyi vanoparidza kugadzirira kwemauto kwakanyanya uye vanotsigira "kuzvidzivirira" kurwisa vavengi vemarudzi. Kuruboshwe ndeyekuziva kana kusaziva imperiya, maonero aanotaura achishandisa mutauro wepasi rose "hutungamiriri" uye "mutoro" uye pasi pemarubhuriki e "rugare kuburikidza nesimba" uye "basa rekudzivirira."
Vazhinji vatsigiri veDemocratic Party muUS vanotadza kuziva kuti Biden Administration iripo mutsigiri ane hutsinye wezvido zvehumambo hweAmerica uye inotsigira gadziriro dzehondo dzakanangana neChina neRussia; kana kuti ivo vanonzwisisa izvi, asi vanozviona senyaya diki zvichienzaniswa nekutyisidzira kwemumba neo-fascism a la Donald Trump. Saizvozvo, vatsigiri vazhinji vemapato ekuruboshwe nekuruboshwe muEurope vanotadza kunzwisisa kuti NATO parizvino ibazi remuchina wemauto eUS uye ingangoita mauto-maindasitiri ekugadzwa kwehumambo hutsva hweEurope. Kana kuti vanofungidzira izvi asi vachiona kusimuka nekuwedzera kweNATO kuburikidza nemalenzi eruvengo uye kufungira maRussia uye kutya kwekurudyi-populist mafambiro seaya aViktor Orban naMarine Le Pen. Chero zvazvingava, mugumisiro ndewokuti vamiriri verunyararo rwepasi rose vanowanzoparadzaniswa kubva kumatunhu epamba ayo vangangobatana nawo.
Kuzviparadzanisa nevamwe kwave kuchinyanya kukosha munyaya yekufamba kwerunyararo kuburikidza nenhaurirano muUkraine, iyo isati yawana chero hunhu hwechokwadi mune chero nyika yekuMadokero. Chokwadi, vamiriri vakasimba venhaurirano dzerunyararo, kunze kwevakuru veUnited Nations, vanowanzove nhamba dzinodyidzana nenyika dzeMiddle East neAsia seTurkey, India, neChina. Kubva pamaonero ekuMadokero, saka, mubvunzo unonyanya kunetsa uye unoda mhinduro ndewekuti ungakunda sei kuparadzaniswa kwemasangano erunyararo.
Mhinduro mbiri dzinozvikurudzira, asi imwe neimwe inoburitsa matambudziko anounza kudiwa kweimwe hurukuro:
Mhinduro yekutanga: gadza mubatanidzwa pakati pevamiriri verunyararo veruboshwe neverudyi. Anti-war liberals uye socialists vanogona kubatana nevanochengetedza vega uye libertarians kuti vagadzire mubatanidzwa wemapato kurwisa hondo dzekunze. Muchokwadi, rudzi urwu rwemubatanidzwa dzimwe nguva rwunongovapo, semuUnited States panguva inotevera kurwiswa kweIraq kwa2003. Dambudziko, hongu, nderekuti izvi ndizvo chaizvo zvinodaidzwa nemaMarxists kuti "yakaora" - sangano rezvematongerwo enyika iro, nekuti rinowana chikonzero chakajairika panyaya imwe chete, rinosungirwa kuparara kana dzimwe nyaya dzanyanya. Mukuwedzera, kana basa rekurwisana nehondo rinoreva kudzura zvikonzero zvehondo pamwe nekupikisa kumwe kuunganidzwa kwemauto kwazvino, zvinhu zve "yakaora bloc" hazvigone kubvumirana pakuziva nekubvisa izvo zvikonzero.
Mhinduro yechipiri: shandura bato rekuruboshwe kuti rive maonero ekudzivirira runyararo rwehumambo, kana kupatsanura zvakasiiwa kuita matunhu anotsigira hondo neanorwisa hondo uye shanda kuchengetedza hukuru hwevanotevera. Chipingamupinyi pakuita izvi hachisi chete kutya kwese kwerudyi-bapiro kutora kwakataurwa pamusoro asi kushaya simba kwemusasa werunyararo. mukati nzvimbo yekuruboshwe. MuUS, vazhinji "vanofambira mberi" (kusanganisira vanozvizodza veDemocratic Socialists) vakanyarara pahondo muUkraine, nekuda kwekutya kuzviparadzanisa nevamwe panyaya dzemumba kana nekuti vanobvuma zvikonzero zvehondo yekurwisa "Russian hutsinye. .” Izvi zvinoratidza kudikanwa kwekuputsa nevanovaka empire uye kuvaka masangano anopikisa-capitalist akazvipira kugumisa imperialism uye kuita rugare rwepasi rose. Izvi is mhinduro kudambudziko, zvirinani mudzidziso, asi kana vanhu vachigona kuunganidzwa muhuwandu hwakakwana kuti vaiite panguva ye "hondo yepakati" haina chokwadi.
Izvi zvinoratidza kubatana pakati pemhando mbiri dziri kubuda dzemhirizhonga dzakakurukurwa kare. Hondo dzisiri dzerudzi rwuri kurwiwa muUkraine dzinogona kupindirana kurwisana kwehumambo hwakadai pakati pemubatanidzwa weUS/Europe neRussia. Kana izvi zvikaitika vanova makakatanwa "akadzikama" ayo, zvisinei, ane simba rekukwira zvakanyanya - ndiko kuti, kuenda kuhondo yakazara - kana rimwe divi rakatarisana nekukundwa kwakashata, kana kupokana kwepakati-maumambo kuchiwedzera zvakanyanya. Kurwisana kweImperial pachayo kunogona kutorwa sekumutsidzira kweCold War inogoneka, kusvika pamwero wakati, nemaitiro ekudzivirirana akagadzirwa munguva yakapfuura, kana serudzi rutsva rwekurwira rwunounza njodzi nyowani, kusanganisira yakakura kwazvo. ngozi yokuti zvombo zvenyukireya (kutangira nezvombo zvinobereka zvishoma) zvichashandiswa zvingave nemapoka makuru kana kuti nevatsigiri vawo. Maonero angu pachangu, achaunzwa mune imwe nyaya inotevera, ndeokuti inomiririra rudzi rutsva rwekurwira iro rinowedzera zvakanyanya njodzi yehondo yenyukireya.
Mhedziso yekukurumidza iyo munhu anogona kutora kubva pane izvi ndeyekuti pane kudikanwa kwekukurumidzira kwenyanzvi dzerunyararo kuti dzione nzira dziri kubuda dzegakava repasi rose, kuongorora mafambiro matsva emakakatanwa, uye kutora mhedziso dzinoshanda kubva muongororo iyi. Panguva imwecheteyo, vanorwira runyararo vanofanirwa kukurumidza kuona zvikonzero zvekusasimba kwavo nekuzviparadzanisa nevamwe uye kuronga nzira dzekuwedzera simba ravo zvakanyanya pakati penhengo dzeruzhinji uye vanosvikika vanoita sarudzo. Mukuedza uku nhaurirano nezviito zvepasi rose zvichave zvakakosha, sezvo nyika yese yave pakupedzisira, uye nenzira kwayo, kubuda mukutonga kweMadokero.
