Fkana anenge a Parizvino, hurumende nemauto avo vakatsvaga rubatsiro rwesainzi nemainjiniya kugadzira zvombo, kuronga dziviriro, uye kupa zano nezve mashandisiro azvo uye kutumira.
Zvinoonekwa neMIT
Nehurombo, chokwadi chesainzi uye tekinoroji hazviwanzo kuenderana nezvinodiwa nevezvematongerwo enyika nevakuru vemauto. Kare muma1950s, vamwe vakuru vakuru veUS vaifarira kuzivisa kuti masayendisiti anofanirwa kunge ari "papombi, kwete pamusoro": nemamwe mazwi, akagadzirira kupa zano rinobatsira pazvinenge zvichidikanwa, asi kwete kupa zano raipokana neiyo mutsara wepamutemo. Mafungiro iwayo akaenderera mberi kusvika iye zvino, asi masayendisiti akaramba zvachose kutevedzera.
Mumwe wevatungamiriri vanozivikanwa kwazvo vekupokana uku ndiTheodore "Ted" Postol, purofesa akabuda sainzi, tekinoroji, uye mutemo wekuchengetedza nyika kuMIT. Akadzidziswa sefizikisi uye mainjiniya enyukireya, Postol akapedza basa rakanyura mune ruzivo rwemauto nekudzivirira tekinoroji. Akashandira Congress muHofisi yeTekinoroji Ongororo isingachashandi, ipapo muPentagon sechipangamazano kuMukuru weNaval Operations asati ajoinha academia, kutanga kuStanford University ndokuzodzokera kualma mater yake, MIT.
Kwese, ave ari mutsoropodzi akasununguka yepfungwa dzisingashande, pfungwa dzisingaite, uye fungidziro dzakakundikana tekinoroji, kusanganisira Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" system, iyo yakashongedzwa yePatriot missile yekutanga Gulf War, uye ichangoburwa intercontinental ballistic missile defense concepts akaedzwa neUS. kuzvinyengedza, kutaura zvisizvo, kutsvagisa, uye kubiridzira chaiko kubva kuPentagon, marabhoritari ezvidzidzo uye akazvimirira, uye Congress.
Patakaonana naye, takaona kuti, kure nekurega basa pazera remakore 70, akanga achigadzirira kuenda kuGermany kunoonana neGermany Foreign Foreign Ministry pamusoro pehukama hweEurope neRussia. Basa rake rinoratidza huchokwadi husingagumi hwokuti kana chimwe chinhu chichinzwika kuva chechokwadi zvikuru, kazhinji ndicho. Mukutsinhana pazasi, mhinduro dzake dzakagadziridzwa kureba nekujeka.
Kusviba - IUS yave ichivavarira kune imwe mhando yedziviriro kubva kuSputnik muna 1957. Somutsoropodzi wepfungwa, unogona here kutsanangura kuti sei kudzivirira kwechokwadi kurwisa makomba anouya kusingaite tekinoroji inogoneka?
Ted Postol - Panyaya yekudzivirira kwema missile yerudzi rwuri kuvakwa neUnited States, zvinhu zvese zvaizoonekwa nevanopindira zvaizoita senge mapoints echiedza. Kunze kwekunge iyo interceptor ine ruzivo rwekutanga, senge mamwe mapoinzi echiedza ane kupenya kwakanyatsotsanangurwa kune mamwe, haina zvachose nzira yekuona kuti chii chairi kutarisa uye semhedzisiro, yekugara mukati.
Imwe pfungwa isiriyo yakajairika ndeyekuti, dai matanho ekupikisa ekubudirira, mawarheads uye decoys anofanirwa kutaridzika zvakafanana. Chinongodiwa ndechekuti zvinhu zvese zvitaridzike zvakasiyana uye kuti hapana ruzivo rwezvinotarisirwa. Nekuda kweizvozvo, muvengi anogona kushandura chimiro chewarhead (semuenzaniso nekuputira bharumu rakatenderedza) uye kunyatso shandura kutaridzika kwayo kune kure kure sensor. Kana muvengi achikwanisa kuvaka maICBM uye zvombo zvenyukireya, muvengi zvechokwadi ane tekinoroji yekuvaka nekuisa mabharumu, pamwe nekuita zvinhu zviri nyore kugadzirisa kutaridzika kwehondo. Tekinoroji yekushandisa matanho akadai ane mwero zvakanyanya nepo tekinoroji yekuikunda isipo - hapana sainzi inogona kushandiswa nemainjiniya inobvumira dziviriro kuona zvauri kuona.
Saka kupikisa kwangu kune yakakwirira-yakakwirira missile dziviriro iyo iri kushandiswa neUnited States iri nyore - havana mukana wekushanda vachipikisana nemuvengi chero upi zvake ane kunyange kunzwisisa zvishoma pane zvavari kuita.
UD - Ndeapi mamiriro azvino eNATO theatre system? VaObama vakakanzura chirongwa chimwe chete chakatangwa neMutungamiri George W. Bush, asi unofunga kuti chingangoitwa zvine simba nehutungamiri hutsva muWashington?
TP - Iyo yazvino NATO theatre missile dziviriro iri mupenyu uye mushe. Iyi missile dziviriro yakavakirwa kutenderedza yakagadziridzwa pamusoro-kune-mhepo-missile inozivikanwa se Standard Missile-3 (SM-3). Pfungwa yekutanga yaive yekutangisa interceptors kubva Aegis cruisers uye shandisa Aegis radars kuona zvinokandwa uye misoro yehondo uye kutungamira zvinopinda. Nekudaro, zvinozoitika kuti maAegis radars aisakwanisa kuona uye kuteedzera bhora rema missile tarisiro pahurefu hwakakwana kubvumira nguva yekuti interceptor ibhururuke kunze uye kubata chinangwa.
Mubvunzo wakanaka wekubvunza ndewekuti US ingangove yakasarudza sei kugadzira nekuisa hurongwa hwakadaro uye isingazivikanwe kuti ndizvo zvazvaive. Imwe tsananguro ndeyokuti kusarudzwa kwezvombo zvekudzivirira kwaitaurirwa chete nezvinokoshera zvematongerwo enyika uye nekudaro, hapana aipinda mukuita sarudzo akaita ongororo, kana kuve nehanya kuti aone kana pfungwa iyi haina musoro. Kana iwe ukaona izvi zvichinyadzisa, ndinobvuma zvachose.
Dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika neAegis-based missile defense nderekuti nhamba yezvipingamupinyi zvinogona kushandiswa neUnited States ichakura zvikuru ne 2030 kusvika 2040. Inogona mukufungidzira kusvika kunze kwepakati peUnited States uye kuita. kupindira kwehondo dzinouya dzakatevedzwa nemaredhi eyambiro eUS.
Izvi zvinogadzira chitarisiko chekuti United States inogona kudzivirira iyo kondinendi United States pamazana mazhinji ehondo dzeChinese kana dzeRussia. Icho chipingamupinyi chakakosha pakuderedzwa kwezvombo mune ramangwana nekuti maRussia haadi kudzikisa saizi yemauto avo kusvika pamazinga apo vangangove vabatwa nenhamba huru dzeUS antimissile interceptors.
Chokwadi ndechekuti hurongwa hwekudzivirira huchange husina kana kugona. Ma radar ekutanga yambiro haakwanise kusarura pakati pemawarheads uye decoys (aya chaiwo radar ishongedzo yakaderera) uye SM-3 interceptors havangakwanise kuziva kuti ndeipi pane dzakawanda zvinangwa yaungasangana nayo ihondo. Zvakangodaro, chitarisiko chekuti United States iri kuedza kuve nekwaniso yekuzvidzivirira nemazana evatambi vanosimudza zvakadzika uye zvinonetsa zvipingamupinyi pakuedza kweramangwana kudzikisa zvombo.
United States ine simba rakakura rekuparadza zvikamu zvakakura zvemauto eRussia mukurova kwekutanga. Kunyangwe kuita kwakadai kunenge kuri kuzviuraya, varongi vemauto kumativi ese (Russian neAmerica) vakatora mukana uyu zvakakomba mumakumi emakore eCold War. Zvakanyatsojeka kubva mumashoko akataurwa naVladimir Putin kuti haarambe mukana wekuti United States ingaedze kutorera Russia zvombo zvenyukireya. Nekudaro, kunyangwe pasina divi rine mukana wekutiza njodzi iripo kana zvombo zvikashandiswa nenzira iyi, mukana unotorwa zvakakomba uye unopesvedzera maitiro ezvematongerwo enyika.
UD - In 1995, roketi yekutsvakurudza yeNorway yakapotsa yatanga Hondo Yenyika III apo maRussia pakutanga akafunga kuti kwaive kurwiswa kweUS. Ongororo yako yakaratidza kuti chiitiko ichi chakaratidza sei zvikanganiso muRussia yambiro uye masisitimu ekudzivirira. Pave paine kuvandudzwa here muRussia yekutanga yambiro?
TP - Vanhu vekuRussia vanobatanidzwa mukuedza kwakakosha-kutanga kuvaka imwe inogoneka yekutanga yambiro pamusoro pekurwiswa kwekushamisika kweUS. Iyo sisitimu yavari kuvaka yakavakirwa pakushandiswa kwepasi-based radars ezvakasiyana madhizaini ane anopindirana ekutsvaga mafeni uye akasiyana einjiniya matekinoroji. Zviripachena kuti ichi chikamu chezano rekudzikisa mikana yeyakajairwa nhema yambiro uchiyedza kupa kwakakosha redundancy kuvimbisa yambiro yekurwiswa.
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, mukati megore rapfuura, maRussia akazokwanisa kuwana 360-degree radar coverage kurwisa ballistic missile nuclear attack. Kana munhu akatarisa mabhuku avo pamaitiro ekunyevera ekutanga, zviri pachena kubva mukutaura kwavo kuti ichi chave chiri chinangwa chavanga vachiedza kuzadzisa kwemakumi emakore akawanda - kutanga kubva panguva yeSoviet Union.
Vanhu vokuRussia vanoita sevari kushandisa kirasi itsva yepamusoro-soro-radars inoratidzika kwandiri kuti haina chokuita nekudzivirirwa kwemhepo, sezvakataurwa mumabhuku eRussia. Kana munhu akatarisa nzvimbo uye hunhu hweaya pamusoro-pe-horizon radars, zviri pachena kuti ane chinangwa chekupa yambiro yeballistic missile kurwisa kubva kuNorth Atlantic neGulf yeAlaska.
Dambudziko nderekuti ma radars aya ari nyore kwazvo kuita jam uye haagone kuvimbwa nawo kuti ave akavimbika zvakanyanya munzvimbo ine hutsinye. Zvese zviratidzo nhasi zvinoratidza pachena kuti vanhu vekuRussia havasati vane tekinoroji yekuvaka yepasi rose-yakavakirwa infrared yekutanga yambiro system. Vane mamwe masimba mashoma ekugadzira masisitimu anotarisisa nzvimbo diki dzepasi, asi hapana chiri pedyo nekuvharika kwepasirese.
UD - Ndedzipi njodzi dzekuti simba diki renyukireya riine zvikwambo zvishoma seNorth Korea rinogona kukanganisa kutaurirana kwepasirese nemhepo yakanangana neelectromagnetic pulse nuclear detonation, kunyangwe pamusoro penzvimbo yavo? Pane dziviriro ipi neipi pakurwisa kwakadaro here?
TP - Kukuvadzwa kukuru kunogona kuitwa kumasetellite akaderera, mamwe nekukurumidza uye mamwe panguva dzinotevera. Zvisinei, kuputika kwenyukireya kusingabereki zvishoma hakusati kwaizoparadza kurukurirano dzose.
Kutonga kwangu ndekwekuti njodzi huru kubva kuNorth Korea ndeyokuti vanogona kugumburwa mukurwisana kwenyukireya neWest. Hutungamiri hweNorth Korea haupenge. Icho panzvimbo pehutungamiri hunotenda kuti hunofanira kutaridzika husingafungidziriki uye hukasha kuitira kuti South Korea neUnited States dzirege kugadzikana sechikamu chezano rose rekudzivisa mauto eSouth neUnited States.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, maNorth Koreans anoita nemaune zvinhu zvinogadzira chitarisiko chekusakendenga - inova iri nzira yekusakendenga yega. Dambudziko guru nderekuti vanongodarika mutsara nekusaziva voita kuti mauto aite mhinduro kubva kuMadokero kana kubva kuMaodzanyemba. Kana izvi zvangoenda hapana anogona kuziva kuti zvichapera kupi kana sei. Pamwe chete chave pedyo chimwe mhedzisiro ndechekuti North Korea ichaparadzwa uye yorega kuvapo senyika. Nekudaro, hapana anogona kufanotaura kuti zvombo zvenyukireya hazvizoshandiswa, uye kuita kweChina kuve neUS neSouth Korea mauto zvakananga kumiganhu yayo kunogona kuve nemhedzisiro isingatarisike.
Saka North Korea ichokwadi mamiriro ane njodzi.
UD - Vanhu vazhinji, kusanganisira vaive nemukurumbira vaimbove nhengo dzebazi rezvekudzivirira vakaita saHenry Kissinger, William Perry, naSam Nunn, vari kudaidzira kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvibviswe paNyika. Iwe unofunga kuti ichi chinangwa chine musoro uye chinogoneka here?
TP - Ini ndiri mutsigiri ane shungu we "chiono" chenyika isina zvombo zvenyukireya.
Ini pachangu ndinofunga kuti zvichave zvakaoma kwazvo kuva nenyika isina zvombo zvenyukireya kunze kwekunge mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika epasi rose ashandurwa zvachose kubva pane zvaari nhasi. Nekudaro, uku hakusi kushoropodzwa kwezvinangwa zvechiratidzo zvakaiswa naShultz, Perry, Nunn naKissinger.
Parizvino, United States neRussia dziri kuzvibata nenzira dzinoratidza kuti hapana divi rakagadzirira kutora matanho akananga kuchiratidzo ichocho. Maonero angu, ayo asingafarirwe zvikuru nemamiriro ezvinhu ezvematongerwo enyika aripo, ndeekuti United States ndiyo nyika iri pachigaro chevatyairi panyaya iyi.
United States iri mushishi rekuvaka dura rezvombo renyukireya rinoratidzika kunge rakanangana nekugona kurwa nekukunda hondo dzenyukireya. Icho chokwadi chekuti pfungwa yekurwa uye kukunda hondo yenyukireya yakarambana zvachose kubva kune chaiyo yezvombo zvezvombo zvenyukireya haina kutadzisa United States kuenda kumberi sekunge chinangwa chakadaro chinogoneka.
Tichifunga nezvemaitiro aya, zvinofanirwa kutarisirwa kuti maRussia angave achitya kufa, uye kuti maChinese angavewo ari padyo navo. Ndinotenda kuti mamiriro acho ane njodzi zvakanyanya uye nekuwedzera zvakanyanya.
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Mark Wolverton, 2016-17 Knight Science Journalism Fellow kuMIT, munyori wesainzi, munyori, uye munyori wemitambo ane zvinyorwa zvakabuda muWired, Scientific American, Popular Science, Air & Space Smithsonian, uye American Heritage, pakati pezvimwe zvinyorwa. Bhuku rake richangoburwa ndere "Hupenyu muTwilight: The Final Years of J. Robert Oppenheimer."
Undark ibhuku risingabatsiri, rakazvimirira redhijitari rinoongorora mharadzano yesainzi nenharaunda. Inoburitswa nerupo rwemari kubva kuJohn S. naJames L. Knight Foundation, kuburikidza neiyo Knight Science Journalism Fellowship Chirongwa muCambridge, Massachusetts.
