naCatherine Killough, Mbudzi 29, 2017, Lobe Log.
Mutungamiri Trump vanogara vachimiririra zvisirizvo nhoroondo yenhaurirano pakati peNorth Korea neUnited States. Mukutaura kwake pamberi peSouth Korean National Assembly, akawana mhedziso kubva munhoroondo yakaoma yebudiriro yezvekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika: “Hurumende yeNorth Korea yakatevera zvirongwa zvayo zvenyukireya nezvipfuro zvekupotsera vimbiso, chibvumirano nekuzvipira kwayakaita. kuUnited States nevatsigiri vayo.”
Hazvisi zvitsva kana zvisingawanzo kutsoropodza North Korea nekuda kwerekodhi yayo isina kukwana yekutaurirana, asi haina kumbove nengozi zvakanyanya. Munhevedzano yematweets mwedzi wapera, VaTrump havana kungoshora kuedza kwevamiriri vekare "kuita mapenzi evatauri veUS," asi vakapedzisa nekusanzwisisa kunotyisa, "Ndine urombo, chinhu chimwe chete chichashanda!"
Kana zvisiri dhipatimendi, saka "chinhu chimwe chete" chinonzwika sekurova kwemauto, chirevo chakakomba chave kudzokorora mukati meWashington mutemo wekunze. Sezvakataurwa naEvan Osnos mune yake chinyorwa nokuti New Yorker, "Chikwata Chezvematongerwo enyika Chiri Kumhanyira Kuhondo neNorth Korea?" pfungwa yehondo yekudzivirira yatekeshera zvekuti kunyangwe aimbove munyori weDemocratic Cabinet akati, "dai anga ari muhurumende nhasi aizotsigira kurwisa North Korea, kuitira kuti irege kutanga kurwisa America."
Kune avo vari kutsvaga kudzivirira hondo inogona kuguma nemamiriyoni ekufa paKorea Peninsula, hapana sarudzo dzemauto. Asi kune mazhinji maDemocrats, kusimudzira diplomacy kunomhanyisa njodzi yekusaina kushaya simba. Nenzira isingashamise, matanho ehupfumi anodzika mutsara pakati pekuranga uye kwete-hondo-chaiyo-inowana rutsigiro rwakakura kwazvo rwebipartisan.
Tichifunga nezvemamiriro ezvinhu ezvematongerwo enyika, kugadzirisa nhoroondo yakatsveyama panhaurirano dzeUS-North Korea kwakakosha-kunyanya sezvo tsika yekuona hurukuro sekufadza, kana kuita semvumo, ichiwedzera kusimba. Zvakawanda zveizvi zvinobva munzira iyo vatsoropodzi vakagadzira chibvumirano chekutanga chinotungamirwa neUS neNorth Korea uye kuparara kwayo.
Chibvumirano Chakaomesa Nukes dzeNorth Korea
Muna 1994, United States neNorth Korea dzakanga dziri pamagumo ehondo. Yakanga iri nguva yekutanga iyo hurumende isingazivikanwe kuchamhembe kwe38th parallel yakatyisidzira kuenda nuclear yenyu. Mushure mekudzinga vese vaongorori vepasi rese kubva munyika, North Korea yakagadzirira kutora mabhomba matanhatu akakosha ezvombo-giredhi plutonium kubva pamafuta emafuta muYongbyon yekutsvagisa reactor.
Panguva iyoyo, Mutungamiriri mutsva Bill Clinton akafunga kutora mauto, kusanganisira chirongwa chekuvhiya zvivakwa zvenyukireya zveNorth Korea. Vazhinji vevakuru vake vepamusoro vaikahadzika kuti vaigona kunyengetedza maNorth Koreans kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya. Semubatsiri Secretary of Defense for International Security Ashton Carter akati, “Takanga tisina, neimwe nzira, chivimbo chokuti taigona kutaura navo kuti varege kutora danho iroro.”
Nekudaro, seaimbova Secretary of Defense William Perry akayeuka, njodzi dzekukonzeresa Hondo yechipiri yeKorea yakamanikidza manejimendi kuti aite nzira yezvekudyidzana. Musangano pakati pevaimbove Mutungamiriri Jimmy Carter nemutungamiri weNorth Korea Kim Il Sung wakatungamira kunhaurirano dzakakomba dzakazoguma neUS-North Korea Agreed Framework musi wa21 Gumiguru 1994.
Muchibvumirano ichi chakakosha, North Korea yakabvuma kuomesa uye pakupedzisira kubvisa magirafu-moderated reactors mukuchinjana nemafuta uye maviri anodzivirira-anodzivirira chiedza-mvura reactors. Aya mareactor anogona kuburitsa simba, asi haakwanise, kutaura, kushandiswa kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya.
Kweanoda kusvika makore gumi, United States yakatsigira yakananga, yakavhurika mutsara wekutaurirana nehurumende yeparanoid uye isina kuchengeteka. Iyo nhanho yekubatana yakaita kuti zvikwanisike kune mhandu mbiri kuti dziite chibvumirano chine yakakosha, mhedzisiro: North Korea yakamira kugadzira plutonium kwemakore masere. Aimbova Mumiriri weUS kuSouth Korea Thomas Hubbard akapedzisa, Gwaro Rezvakabvumiranwa “rakaratidzika kuva risina kukwana… Asi rakadzivisa North Korea kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya zvinosvika 100 pari zvino.”
Nehurombo, zvakabudirira izvi zvakafukidzwa nekudonha kweAgreed Framework, umo "kudonha" kwave kufanana ne "kutadza." Asi kutaura kuti chibvumirano chakundikana zvinotsanangura zvishoma kuti kubudirira kungave kusanganisirei nenyika inotakura mikwende yakawanda seNorth Korea. Kuburitswa kwenhau dzisina kunaka, kusanganisira kusiiwa kwekukanganisa kudivi reUS rechibvumirano, zvimwe zvine mhosva. Asi maHawkish Conservatives, avo vakashandisa chibvumirano kwenguva yakareba seyambiro yekunyepedzera kunyaradzwa, ndivo vane mhosva.
United States neNorth Korea dzakatora chikamu mukupunzika kweAgreed Framework, asi kutaura kwekuti North Korea yakabirira kunovharidzira chokwadi ichocho. Nguva pfupi mushure mekunge hutungamiriri hwaClinton hwaparura chibvumirano, veRepublicans vakawana kutonga kweCongress, zvichikonzera "kushaikwa kwekuda kwezvematongerwo enyika," maererano ne mukuru wenhaurirano Robert Gallucci, uye zvakakonzera kunonoka kukuru mukuunza zvisungo zveUS.
Kupikisa kweCongressional kwakawedzera zvakare muna 1998 pakati pekupomerwa kuti Maodzanyemba aive akaviga nzvimbo yenyukireya yepasi pevhu kuKumchang-ri. Panzvimbo pekutora nzira yekuranga, manejimendi aClinton akataurira zvainetsa zvakananga kuNorth Koreans uye, vachitsvaga kuchengetedza chibvumirano, vakataurirana chibvumirano chitsva chakabvumidza United States kugara ichiongorora nzvimbo yaifungidzirwa, kwayakatadza kuwana humbowo hwekuita. basa renyukireya.
Iyi nzira yehumiriri yakaramba iripo kunyangwe chirongwa cheNorth Korea chiri kufambira mberi chezvombo chakaridza maalarm matsva. Zvichitevera kutangwa kweNorth Korea kwechombo cherefu-refu pamusoro peJapan muna 1998, hutungamiriri hwaClinton hwakapa basa boka diki revanyanzvi vehurumende mukati nekunze neNorth Korea Policy Ongororo yaizobatanidza zvinangwa zvakataurwa muChibvumirano Chechibvumirano.
Vaimbove Secretary of Defense William Perry vakabatana nehurumende dzeNorth Korea, South Korea, China, neJapan mune yakazozivikanwa sePerry Process. Nhaurirano dzinoverengeka dzakaguma muna 1999 neshumo yaitsanangura kurudziro yekuti United States iite kumiswa kunogoneka uye pakupedzisira kubviswa kweNyukireya yeNorth uye kureba-kurebesa zviitwa. Zvakadaro, boka rekuongorora mutemo rakaona kuti United States inofanirwa kutora matanho ekugadzirisa kuchengetedzwa kweNorth uye kumisa hukama hwakajairika.
North Korea yakapindura zvakanaka nekusangobvuma kumisa bvunzo dzayo dzezvombo panguva yehurukuro, asi zvakare kutumira chipangamazano wavo mukuru wemauto kuWashington kuzokurukura nezvechikumbiro chaPerry neMutungamiri Clinton. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright akadzorera kushanya uku nekuenda kuPyongyang kumusangano naKim Jong Il gare gare mwedzi iwoyo.
Nekudaro, kusimudzira kweiyo aimbove Special Advisor kuMutungamiri Wendy Sherman akadana Chikumbiro "chiri pedyo zvinokatyamadza" chakamisa mwedzi unotevera nesarudzo yaGeorge W. Bush. Ipapo-Secretary of State Colin Powell akataura kuti mutemo weNorth Korea uchaenderera mberi pakasiira Clinton, asi Bush, uyo akasarudza kukanzura nhaurirano dzese neNorth Korea kwemakore maviri anotevera, akamukunda.
Hutongi hweBush hwakaenda kure negwara rezvematongerwo enyika iro hutungamiriri hwaClinton hwakatora marwadzo kuchengetedza. Bush akawedzera North Korea kune vatatu ve "axis of evil" inoti. Dick Cheney akaramba diplomacy yeshanduko yehutongi, achiti, “Hatitaurirane nehuipi. Tinozvikunda.” Ipapo-Undersecretary of State for Arms Control John Bolton akashandisa mishumo yehungwaru nezve chirongwa chinofungidzirwa kuti chakavanzika chekupfumisa uranium kuuraya chibvumirano chaasina kumbofarira. Mumashoko ake pachake, “Iyi ndiyo yakanga iri sando yandanga ndichitsvaka kuti ndiputse Chibvumirano Chibvumirano.”
Pakupedzisira, Bush manejimendi akapomera mumwe mukuru weNorth Korea akasimbisa kuvepo kweinofungidzirwa kuti chirongwa chekupfumisa uranium. North Korea yakaramba kubvumirwa, izvo zvakakonzera kupomerana-mberi kuti divi rega rega raityora chibvumirano. Panzvimbo pekushanda kukunda kusavimba kuri kuwedzera, United States yakatsigira kubva muchibvumirano muna 2002.
The Agreed Framework Redux
Kuramba kwaBush kudyidzana neNorth Korea kwakatanga zvakare kunetsa hurumende yake muna 2003. North Korea yakabva yatanga zvakare chirongwa chayo cheplutonium ichibva yazivisa kuti yakanga ine chombo chenyukireya. Iine chokwadi chekuda kupinda zvakare munhaurirano, United States yakabatana neChina, Russia, Japan, neSouth Korea muSix Party Talks.
Nhaurirano dzinoverengeka dzakatungamira mubudiriro makore maviri gare gare ne2005 Joint Statement, iyo yakavimbisa Maodzanyemba kusiya "zvombo zvenyukireya zvese nezvirongwa zvenyukireya zviripo." Asi mapato matanhatu achangozivisa chibvumirano, Treasury yeUS yakamisa zvinhu zveNorth Korea mubhanga reMacau, Banco Delta Asia.
Kune hutungamiriri hweNorth Korea, kubvisa mukana wavo wemadhora makumi maviri neshanu mumari yaive mhosva huru uye vakakurudzira kuti United States yanga isiri kuremekedza kuita chibvumirano. Kunyangwe avo vanoshandira manejimendi, semutauri mukuru Ambassador Christopher Hill, vakaona chiitiko ichi sekuyedza "kukanganisa nhaurirano zvachose."
Chero zvazvingava zvinangwa zveHomwe yeUS, kugadzika kwechando kwakakonzera kuburitsa makore ekufambira mberi kwakawanwa nesimba kuvakazve kuvimba. North Korea yakadzorera muna 2006 nekungoyedza-kupfura mapfumo masere chete, asiwo nekuputira mudziyo wayo wekutanga nyukireya.
United States ichangopedza nhaurirano nekusimudza chando nekubvisa North Korea kubva kuState Sponsors of Terrorism list muna 2007. Mukudzoka, North Korea yakadzoredza vaongorori vezvombo zvenyukireya uye yakaremadza reactor yayo yeYongbyon, ichiputika shongwe inotonhorera mune chiitiko chinoshamisa cheterevhizheni. Asi kukuvadzwa kwakakwana kwakange kwaitwa zvekuti pakazomuka kusawirirana kutsva pamusoro penzira dzekusimbisa, Nhanhatu dzeBato Hurukuro dzakasvika pakaoma uye dzakatadza kuenda muchikamu chekupedzisira chekuparadza chirongwa chezvombo zvenyukireya cheNorth Korea.
Izvo zvinogumira zveStrategic Patience
Kufanana nehutongi hwaive pamberi pake, Mutungamiri Obama akanonoka kutaurirana neNorth Korea. Kunyangwe VaObama vakajekesa kubva pakutanga kuti vaizotora nzira yepro-diplomacy uye "kutambanudza ruoko" kune idzo hurumende "dzakada kudzima chibhakera chako," North Korea yakawira pasi pane yake runyorwa rwezvekune dzimwe nyika.
Pane kudaro, mutemo we "kushivirira" wakamira mukuedza kupi zvako kwakanangidzirwa kudzosa North Korea patafura yekutaurirana. Kunyangwe musuwo wehurukuro wakaramba wakavhurika zvine hungwaru, United States yakatevera zvirango uye kumanikidza mishandirapamwe zvisina kusiyana nemaitiro ehutongi hwaTrump. North Korea yakadzora chikamu chayo chekutsamwisa, kusanganisira yechipiri bvunzo yenyukireya uye maviri anouraya skirmishes pamuganhu wayo neSouth Korea.
Yakanga isiri kusvika muna 2011 apo hutongi hwaObama hwakatangazve hurukuro dzedenuclearization. Mushure mechinguva chipfupi mushure mekufa kwaKim Jong Il, nyika mbiri idzi dzakazivisa chibvumirano che "Leap Day" muna Kukadzi 2012. North Korea yakabvuma kumisa bvunzo dzayo dzenguva refu dze missile uye nyukireya mukutsinhana ne240,000 metric toni yerubatsiro rwechikafu. .
Mazuva gumi nematanhatu gare gare, North Korea yakazivisa hurongwa hwayo hwekuburitsa satellite mudenga. United States yakaramba ichifunga kuti kutanga kwakadaro kunotyora chibvumirano, ukuwo North Korea vakati, "kutangwa kwesetiraiti hakuna kubatanidzwa mukuvhurwa kwechikasha chenguva refu" uye yakaenderera nehurongwa hwayo.
Hutongi hwakabva hwarasa chibvumirano, danho rinokatyamadza rakapihwa kuyedza kwakapfuura kweUS kugadzirisa njodzi dzehuviri-kushandisa-kombi tekinoroji. Semuyenzaniso, kwemakumi emakore United States yakaramba zvikumbiro zveSouth Korea zvekuwedzera huwandu hwezvombo zvekupfura nekutya kuti zvaizotanga nhangemutange yezvombo. Pakati pekumanikidzwa kuri kukura, United States yakasvika chibvumirano muna 2001 icho chakawedzera chiyero chezviitwa zvezvikomba zveSouth Korea uku zvichisanganisira zvipingaidzo pachirongwa chayo chekuvhura nzvimbo, sekushandiswa kwemafuta emvura.
Panzvimbo yekudzokorora chibvumirano kuti zvinyatso kusiyanisa izvo zvinogamuchirika maererano nesetiraiti kana missile launch, United States inorega nhaurirano neNorth Korea, zvakare, iwire munzira.
Iyo Yega Sarudzo
Dai Bush akachengeta Chibvumirano Chibvumirano, dai vakaoma musoro vasina kukanganisa Hurukuro dzeMapato matanhatu, uye dai VaObama vakajekesa mamiriro echibvumirano cheLeap Day, North Korea inogona kunge isiri dambudziko renyukireya rinobata United States nevabatsiri vayo nhasi.
Asi zvipikirwa zvakaputswa uye mabhiriji akapiswa hachisi chikonzero chokusiya kukurukurirana. Pane zvakawanda zvezvidzidzo mukati mekutsemuka kwerekodhi rekodhi renhaurirano rakakodzera kutorwa, kusanganisira kudiwa kwekugadzirisa zvinonetsa zvekuchengetedza North Korea uye kukosha kwakakosha kwekudyidzana kweUS.
Pachine kuvhurwa kwekubvumirana neNorth Korea, asi Trump anotyisidzira kuivhara pese paanenge achirerutsa kukosha kwenhaurirano. Semutungamiri wese kubvira Clinton akazosvika pakunzwisisa, kana imwe nzira neNorth Korea iri hondo, sarudzo dzese dzezvematongerwo enyika dzinofanirwa kuongororwa zvizere. Mamiriyoni oupenyu akarembera muchiyero.
Catherine Killough ndiye Roger L. Hale Fellow paPlowshares Fund, hwaro hwekuchengetedza pasi rose. Akamuwanira MA muAsia Zvidzidzo kubva kuChikoro cheKune dzimwe nyika Service paGeorgetown University. Tevera pa Twitter @catkillough. Mufananidzo: Jimmy Carter naKim Il Sung.
