NaAriel Goridhe naMedea Benjamin, Jacobin, Zvita 10, 2021
Mushure mekumira kwemwedzi mishanu, nhaurirano dzisina kunanga pakati peUS neIran dzakatangazve svondo rapfuura muVienna mukuyedza kugadzirisa chibvumirano chenyukireya che5 Iran (inozivikanwa seJoint Comprehensive Plan of Action kana JCPOA). Maonero haana kunaka.
Pasati papera vhiki munhaurirano, Britain, France, neGermany akapomerwa Iran ye "kudzokera kumashure zvinenge zvese zvakaoma zvibvumirano" zvakawanikwa panguva yekutanga yenhaurirano mutungamiri mutsva weIran, Ebrahim Raisi, asati atoreswa pachigaro. Nepo zviito zvakadaro zveIran zvisiri kubatsira kuti nhaurirano dzibudirire, kune imwe nyika - iyo isiri bato pachibvumirano chakatsemurwa muna 2018 naPresident Donald Trump - vane chinzvimbo chavo chiri kugadzira zvipingamupinyi munhaurirano dzakabudirira. : Izirayeri.
NeSvondo, pakati pemishumo yekuti nhaurirano dzingaparara, Mutungamiriri weIsrael, Naftali Bennett akadana nyika dziri muVienna kuti dziite. “tora mutsara wakasimba” kurwisa Iran. Zvinoenderana neChannel 12 nhau muIsrael, vakuru veIsrael vari kukurudzira US kutora chiito chemauto kurwisa Iran, kungave nekurova Iran zvakananga kana nekurova nzvimbo yeIran muYemen. Pasinei nemhedzisiro yenhaurirano, Israel inoti inochengetera kodzero yekutora uto chiito pamusoro peIran.
Kutyisidzira kweIsrael hakungori bluster. Pakati pa2010 na2012, masayendisiti mana eIran enyukireya aive akapondwa, zvichida naIsraeri. Muna Chikunguru 2020, moto, zvinoratidzwa kubhomba reIsrael, rakakonzera kukanganisa kukuru kunzvimbo yenyukireya yeNatanz yeIran. Muna Mbudzi 2020, nguva pfupi mushure mekunge Joe Biden akunda musarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika, vashandi veIsrael vakashandisa pfuti dzemuchina. muurayi Iran yepamusoro yenyukireya musayendisiti. Dai Iran yakatsiva zvakaenzana, US ingadai yakatsigira Israeri, nekunetsana kuri kuwedzera muhondo yeUS-Middle East.
Muna Kubvumbi 2021, apo kuyedza kwekudyidzana kwaiitwa pakati pehutongi hweBiden neIran, kuparadza kwainzi kwakaitwa neIsrael kwakakonzera mhirizhonga. blackout kuNatanz. Iran yakatsanangura chiitiko ichi se "hugandanga hwenyukireya."
Sezvineiwo yakatsanangurwa seIran's Build Back Better plan, mushure meimwe neimwe yekuparadza nzvimbo yenyukireya yeIsrael, vanhu vekuIran vakakurumidza kuwana zvivakwa zvavo. dzokera online uye vakatoisa michina mitsva yekupfumisa uranium nekukurumidza. Somugumisiro, vakuru veAmerica munguva pfupi yapfuura akanyeverwa vamwe vavo veIsrael kuti kurwiswa kwezvivakwa zvenyukireya zveIran hakuna maturo. Asi Israeri akapindura kuti haana chinangwa chokurega.
Sezvo wachi inopera kuti igadzirisezve JCPOA, Israel iri kutumira vakuru-vakuru vayo kunze kuita nyaya yacho. Gurukota rezvekunze reIsrael Yair Lapid aive muLondon neParis svondo rapfuura achivakumbira kuti vasatsigire zvinangwa zveUS zvekudzokera kuchibvumirano. Vhiki rino, gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kwenyika, Benny Gantz, pamwe nemukuru weMossad weIsrael, David Barnea, vari muWashington kumisangano neMunyori weDziviriro weUS, Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State of America, Antony Blinken, nevakuru veCIA. Maererano nepepanhau reIsrael Yedioth Ahronoth, Barnea vakauya "yakagadziridzwa njere pakuedza kwaTehran" kuve nyika yenyukireya.
Pamwe chete nokukumbira mashoko, Israeri iri kugadzirira muhondo. Vakadaro yakapihwa $1.5 bhiriyoni kuitira kurwisa Iran. Muna October naNovember, vakaita maekisesaizi ehondo makuru mukugadzirira kurwisa Iran uye chirimo chino vanoronga kubata chimwe chavo hombe dhiraivha simulation drills zvachose, vachishandisa ndege dzakawanda, kusanganisira Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter jet.
US iri kugadzirirawo mukana wemhirizhonga. Kwasara vhiki nhaurirano dzichitangazve muVienna, mukuru weUS kuMiddle East, General Kenneth McKenzie, zvakaziviswa kuti mauto ake akanga akamirira zviito zvehondo kana nhaurirano dzikaparara. Nezuro, zvakanga zvakadaro Zvinonzi kuti musangano weGurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kweIsrael, Benny Gantz naLloyd Austin ungasanganisira kukurukura zvingangoitika zvakabatana zvemauto eUS-Israel vachitevedzera kuparadzwa kwezvivakwa zvenyukireya zveIran.
Matanho akakwira kuti nhaurirano dzibudirire. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) yakasimbisa mwedzi uno kuti Iran ikozvino kuwedzera uranium kusvika ku20 muzana kuchena panzvimbo yayo yepasi pevhu paFordo, saiti iyo JCPOA inorambidza hupfumi. Maererano neIAEA, kubvira Trump yakaburitsa US kubva muJCPOA, Iran yakaenderera mberi nekupfumisa uranium kusvika ku60 muzana kuchena (zvichienzaniswa ne 3.67% pasi pechibvumirano), ichiramba ichiswedera pedyo ne90 muzana inodiwa chombo chenyukireya. MunaSeptember, iyo Institute for Science uye International Security yakabudisa mushumo kuti, pasi pe "yakaipisisa-nyaya yekufungidzira," mukati memwedzi Iran inogona kugadzira zvinhu zvakaringana zvekushandisa chombo chenyukireya.
Kubuda kweUS kubva kuJCPOA hakuna kungotungamira kune tarisiro inotyisa yeimwe nyika yeMiddle East ichiva nyika yenyukireya ane pakati pe80 ne400 zvombo zvenyukireya), asi yakatokuvadza zvakanyanya vanhu veIran. Mushandirapamwe we "yakanyanya kudzvanywa" zvirango - pakutanga waTrump asi parizvino pasi pemuridzi waJoe Biden - watambudza vanhu vekuIran. Runaway inflation, kukwira kwemitengo yezvokudya, rendi, uye mishonga, uye vakaremara zveutano zvekutepfenyura. Kunyangwe denda reCCIDID-19 risati rarova, zvirango zveUS zvaive kudzivirira Iran kubva kunze kwenyika mishonga inodiwa kurapa zvirwere zvakaita seleukemia nepfari. Muna Ndira 2021, United Nations yakaburitsa a ripoti vachitaura kuti zvirango zveUS kuIran zvaipa mhinduro "isina kukwana uye opaque" kuCOVID-19. Nevanopfuura zviuru zana nemakumi matatu vakafa vakanyoreswa zviri pamutemo kusvika pari zvino, Iran ine soro nhamba yevakafa vakarekodwa coronavirus muMiddle East. Uye vakuru vakuru vanoti nhamba chaidzo dzinogona kunge dzakatokwira.
Kana US neIran dzikasakwanisa kusvika pachibvumirano, iyo yakaipisisa mamiriro ichave itsva US-Middle East hondo. Tichifunga nezvekukundikana kukuru uye kuparadzwa kwakaparadzwa nehondo dzeIraq neAfghanistan, hondo neIran yaizova njodzi. Mumwe angafunga kuti Israeri, iyo inogamuchira $ 3.8 bhiriyoni pagore kubva kuUS, inganzwa ichisungirwa kusakwevera iyo US nevanhu vavo munjodzi yakadaro. Asi izvozvo hazviratidziki kuva zvakadaro.
Kunyangwe hazvo dzainge dzave pedyo nekudonha, hurukuro dzakatanga zvakare svondo rino. Iran, iko zvino iri pasi pehurumende yakaoma iyo US masanctions yakabatsira kuunza musimba, yaratidza kuti haisi kuzova mutauriri wenhaurirano uye Israel iri kuda kukanganisa nhaurirano. Izvi zvinoreva kuti zvichatora kushinga diplomacy uye kuda kukanganiswa kubva kuBiden manejimendi kuti chibvumirano chigadziriswe zvakare. Ngativimbei kuti Biden nevataurisi vake vane chido uye ushingi hwekuita izvozvo.
Ariel Goridhe ndiye wepasi rose co-director uye Senior Middle East Policy Analyst na CODEPINK Rugare.
Medhiya Bhenjamini ndiye anodzidzisa CODEPINK Rugare, uye munyori wemabhuku akati wandei, kusanganisira Mukati meIran: Iyo Chaiyo Nhoroondo yeIslam Republic yeIran.
