Kukunda kwakasimba kwaPresident Rouhani musarudzo kunojekesa nzira yekuti Iran ienderere mberi nekuedza kwayo kudyidzana nenharaunda yepasi rose uye kuwedzera rusununguko munyika, anodaro Trita Parsi.
NaTrita Parsi, ConsortiumNews.
Hunhu hweIran mune zvematongerwo enyika huri kuramba huchifadza. Pasinei nehurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hwakakanganisika apo sarudzo dzisina kunaka kana kusununguka, ruzhinji rwakanyanya rwakasarudza nzira isina mhirizhonga yekuunza budiriro.
Hassan Rouhani, Mutungamiri weIslamic Republic of Iran, achitaura kuUnited Nations General Assembly, Gunyana 22, 2016 (Mufananidzo weUN)
Vakapinda zvakanyanya musarudzo vaine vanhu vakavhota nezvikamu makumi manomwe nezvishanu kubva muzana - enzanisa nehuwandu hwevanhu vakavhota musarudzo dzemuUS muna 75, 2016 muzana - uye vakapa mutungamiri wenyika, Hassan Rouhani, kukunda zvine mutsindo ne56 muzana yemavhoti.
Mumamiriro edunhu, sarudzo iyi inotoshamisa. Munyika zhinji dzeMiddle East, sarudzo hadzina kana kuitwa. Tora Saudi Arabia semuenzaniso, sarudzo yeMutungamiri Donald Trump yerwendo rwake rwekutanga kunze kwenyika.
Pane zvinhu zvishoma zvatingataure nezve zvinoreva chiitiko chevanhu veIran.
Chekutanga, zvakare, vanhu vekuIran vakavhota vachipokana nemumiriri aifungidzirwa kuti anofarirwa neMutungamiriri Mukuru weIran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iyi ikozvino muenzaniso yakasimba.
Chechipiri, maIran akatsiura mapoka anopikisa akadzingwa pamwe neveWashington hawks nemaneocons avo vakadaidzira vanhu veIran kuti varambe sarudzo kana kuvhotera mumiriri akaomesesa Ebrahim Raisi kuti vakurumidze kunetsana. Zviripachena, zvinhu izvi hazvina zvinotevera muIran.
Chechitatu, kunyangwe naVaTrump vachikanganisa chibvumirano chenyukireya neIran, uye kunyangwe paine matambudziko akakura nehurongwa hwekuyamura zvirango izvo zvakasiya vanhu vazhinji veIran vaodzwa mwoyo nechibvumirano chenyukireya, maIran vachiri kusarudza diplomacy, detente uye mwero pamusoro pemutsara wekupokana kwehutongi hweIran. Iran nhasi yave imwe yenyika shoma pasirese uko meseji yemwero uye anti-populism inokuchengetedza iwe kukunda kwakasimba kwesarudzo.
Chirevo Chekodzero Dzevanhu
Chechina, kunyangwe Rouhani akatadza pazvipikirwa zvake zvekuvandudza mamiriro ekodzero dzevanhu muIran, maIran uye vatungamiriri vevatungamiri veGreen Movement vakamupa mukana wechipiri. Asi iye zvino ane simba rakasimba - uye zvikonzero zvishoma. Ino ndiyo nguva yekuti aite zvipikirwa zvakakurudzira makumi emamiriyoni evaIran kuti vamusarudze kaviri semutungamiri wenyika.
Mwana weIran akabata pikicha yeMutungamiriri Mukuru weIran Ali Khamenei pane imwe yekuonekwa kwake pachena. (Mufananidzo wehurumende yeIran)
Anofanirwa kutora danho rakasimba kuchengetedza kodzero dzevanhu uye rusununguko rwevanhu veIran, kutevera hukama hwakavandudzwa nenyika, uye kukurudzira kukura kwehupfumi hwevanhu veIran. Mauto akaomarara ari kukonzera kusungwa kweIran zvisina tsarukano uye kuurayiwa kwechisimba anogona kusapindura Rouhani zvakananga, asi vanhu veIran vakamusarudza vanotarisira kuti achaita zvakawanda mutemu yake yechipiri kuunza shanduko.
Kutadza kuita izvi kune njodzi yekubvisa chizvarwa chevaIrani kubva mukutenda kuti izwi ravo rinogona kuita mutsauko, zvichigona kumisa ramangwana reIran kune manzwi akaomarara angadzose nyika mukuzviparadzanisa uye kunangana neWest.
Chechishanu, apo Saudi Arabia iri kugamuchira Trump uye ichimumanikidza kuti adzokere kumutemo wekuzviparadzanisa neIran, mukuru weEuropean Union Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini akakorokotedza Rouhani nekukunda kwake musarudzo uye akadzorera EU kuchibvumirano chenyukireya. Mhedzisiro yesarudzo ichasimbisa kuzvipira kweEU kuona kuti chibvumirano chiripo uye kuzvipira kwayo kune inosanganisirwa chengetedzo yeMiddle East.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, EU ichapikisa kuyedza kwaTrump neSaudi Arabia kuita kunetsana neIran. Izvi zvinoisa hutongi hwaTrump zvakare kubva mukuwirirana neEurope uye veUS vekuMadokero vanobatana panhau yakakosha yekuchengetedza.
Diplomacy Pamusoro peHondo
Yechitanhatu, maIran akatsigira zvakare mutemo wenhaurirano neveMadokero, asi mubvunzo ndewekuti kana VaTrump vachabvisa chibhakera chavo vombundikira hwindo iri rekutaurirana. Sezvo dambudziko renyukireya rakagadziriswa kuburikidza nenhaurirano, mapoinzi asara emakakatanwa pakati peUS neIran anogonawo kugadziriswa nedhipatimendi, kusanganisira Syria neYemen. Izvi ndizvo zvinodiwa neMiddle East izvozvi - diplomacy yakawanda, kwete kutengesa zvombo.
Munyori weDziviriro Jim Mattis anogamuchira Mutevedzeri weMuchinda weSaudi Crown uye Mutungamiriri weDziviriro Mohammed bin Salman kuPentagon, Kurume 16, 2017. (DoD mufananidzo naSgt. Amber I. Smith)
Yechinomwe, Congress inofanirwa kudzivirira kukanganisa meseji yakajeka yekudyidzana inotumirwa nevanhu veIran uye nekupa masimba akaomarara nekusundidzira mberi kwemitemo yezvirango inosimudzira mushure mesarudzo. Zvirango zvitsva zveSeneti zviri kutarisirwa kurongwa mukomiti iyi svondo rinouya. Mhinduro inotyisa sei kuvanhu veIran mushure mekunge vavhotera diplomacy uye mwero.
Chekupedzisira, kurwira masimba muIran kuchawedzera kuchinjika kumubvunzo wekuti ndiani achatsiva Ayatollah Khamenei uye ave Mutungamiriri anotevera weIran. Zvinotendwa zvakanyanya kuti Rouhani ari kutarisa chinzvimbo ichi. Nokukunda kwake kukuru, akavandudza tarisiro dzake. Kusvika pamwero wakati, izvi ndizvo zvaive zvesarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika iyi.
Trita Parsi ndiye muvambi uye purezidhendi weNational Iranian American Council uye inyanzvi pahukama hweUS-Iran, zvematongerwo enyika dzeIran, uye geopolitics yeMiddle East. Ndiye munyori anohwina mubairo wemabhuku maviri, Treacherous Alliance - Zvakavanzika Zvekuita zveIsrael, Iran neUS (Yale University Press, 2007) uye Rondedzero Imwechete yeDice - Diplomacy yaObama neIran (Yale University Press, 2012). Ano tweets pa @tparsi.
