Mafambiro Akaita Madokero Nzira Yekutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweRussia pamusoro peUkraine

naMilan Rai, Peace News, March 4, 2022

Pamusoro pekutya uye kutya kunokonzerwa nekurwiswa kweRussia ikozvino muUkraine, vazhinji vakashamiswa uye vakatya nemutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin mazwi achangobva kuitika uye zviito maererano nezvombo zvake zvenyukireya.

Jens Stoltenberg, munyori mukuru wemubatanidzwa weNATO, ane zvombo zvenyukireya akadana Russia ichangoburwa nyukireya inofamba pamusoro peUkraine 'kusavimbika' uye 'nengozi rhetoric'. Mumiriri weBritish Conservative MP, Tobias Ellwood, anove sachigaro wedare redziviriro reHome of commons, akanyeverwa (zvakare pa27 Kukadzi) kuti mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin 'anogona kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya muUkraine'. Sachigaro weConservative weCommons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, Tom Tugendhat, akawedzera pana 28 February: 'hazvigoneki kuti hurongwa hwemauto eRussia hwekushandisa nhandare yehondo yenyukireya hupihwe.'

Pakupera kwakadzikama kwezvinhu, Stephen Walt, purofesa wekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika paHarvard's Kennedy School of Government, Akaudzwa ari New York Times: 'Mukana wangu wokufa muhondo yenyukireya uchiri kunzwa uri muduku zvikuru, kunyange mukuru kupfuura nezuro.'

Zvisinei nehukuru kana hudiki mikana yehondo yenyukireya ingave yakakura, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweRussia kunokanganisa uye hakusi pamutemo; dzinoita ugandanga hwenyukireya.

Sezvineiwo, idzi hadzisi tyisidziro dzekutanga dzakaonekwa nenyika. Kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwakamboitwa, kusanganisira - kwakaoma sezvazvingave kutenda - neUS neBritain.

Nzira mbiri dzinokosha

Pane nzira mbiri dzakakosha dzaungapa nadzo njodzi yenyukireya: kuburikidza nemashoko ako kana nezviito zvako (zvaunoita nezvombo zvako zvenyukireya).

Hurumende yeRussia yakaita ese marudzi ezviratidzo mumazuva mashoma nemavhiki apfuura. Putin akaita hurukuro dzekutyisidzira uye akafambisa uye akaunganidza zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia.

Ngativei pachena, Putin atova kushandisa Zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia.

Mutauriri wemauto eUS Daniel Ellsberg akataura kuti zvombo zvenyukireya ndizvo raishandiswa apo tyisidziro dzakadaro dzinoitwa, nenzira ‘yokuti pfuti inoshandiswa apo unoinongedzera pamusoro pomumwe munhu mukurwisana kwakananga, ingave kana kuti kwete chinopfura chiri kudhonzwa’.

Pazasi pane iyo quotation muchirevo chechinyorwa. Ellsberg inotaura kuti kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwakaitwa kakawanda zvisati zvaitika - neUS:

'Pfungwa yakajairika kune vangangoita vese vekuAmerica yekuti "hapana zvombo zvenyukireya zvakashandiswa kubva kuNagasaki" yakarasika. Haisi iyo nyaya yekuti zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS zvakangowanda mumakore - isu tine pamusoro pe30,000 yavo ikozvino, mushure mekubvisa zviuru zvezvisina basa - zvisina kushandiswa uye zvisinga shandiswe, kunze kwekuita basa rimwe chete rekudzivisa kushandiswa kwavo kurwisa isu. VaSoviet. Kakawanda, kazhinji muchivande kubva kuvanhu veAmerica, zvombo zvenyukireya zveUnited States zvakashandiswa, nokuda kwezvinangwa zvakasiyana chaizvo: nenzira chaiyo iyo pfuti inoshandiswa kana iwe uchinge wanongedza pamusoro pemumwe munhu mukurwisana kwakananga, kana kwete. inodhonzwa.'

'Zvombo zvenyukireya zveUnited States zvakashandiswa, nokuda kwezvinangwa zvakasiyana zvikuru: nenzira chaiyo iyo pfuti inoshandiswa kana ukainongedzera mumusoro memumwe munhu mukurwisana kwakananga, ingave inodhonza kana kuti kwete.'

Ellsberg akapa rondedzero ye12 US tyisidziro dzenyukireya, kubva muna 1948 kusvika 1981. (Akanga achinyora muna 1981.) Ndaza yacho inogona kurebeswa nhasi. Mimwe mienzaniso yazvino vakapihwa mu Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists muna 2006. Musoro wenyaya unonyanya kukurukurwa zvakasununguka muUS pane muUK. Kunyange dhipatimendi rehurumende reUnited States rinonyora mimwe mienzaniso yezvainodaidza kuti US 'kuyedza kushandisa kutyisidzira kwehondo yenyukireya kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvediplomatic. Rimwe remabhuku achangoburwa pamusoro penyaya iyi ndere Joseph Gerson's Humambo neBhomba: Mashandisiro anoita US Zvombo zveNyukireya Kutonga Nyika (Pluto, 2007).

Kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwaPutin

Kudzoka kune ikozvino, mutungamiri Putin akati pana 24 Kukadzi, mukutaura kwake achizivisa kupindira:

'Zvino ndinoda kutaura chimwe chinhu chakakosha kune avo vanogona kuedzwa kupindira mune izvi zviri kuitika kubva kunze. Hazvinei kuti ndiani anoedza kumira munzira yedu kana kuti kutowedzera tyisidziro nokuda kwenyika yedu navanhu vedu, vanofanira kuziva kuti Russia ichapindura nokukurumidza, uye miuyo ichava yakadai yausina kumboona munhau yako yose.’

Izvi zvakaverengwa nevakawanda, zvakarurama, sengozi yenyukireya.

Putin akaenderera mberi:

'Nezvenyaya dzehondo, kunyangwe mushure mekuparadzwa kweUSSR uye kurasikirwa nechikamu chikuru chezvainokwanisa, Russia yanhasi inoramba iri imwe yenyika dzine simba renyukireya. Uyezve, ine imwe mukana mune dzinoverengeka dzekucheka-kumucheto zvombo. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, hapafanirwe kuve nekupokana kune chero munhu kuti chero angangoita mhirizhonga achasangana nekukundwa uye nemhedzisiro inotyisa kana akarwisa nyika yedu zvakananga.'

Muchikamu chekutanga, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwaive kune avo 'vanopindira' nechisimba. Muchikamu chechipiri ichi, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kunonzi kunopesana ne'vapambi' avo 'vanorwisa nyika yedu zvakananga'. Kana isu tikatema propaganda iyi, Putin anenge ari kutyisidzira ipapo kushandisa Bhomba kune chero mauto ekunze 'anorwisa zvakananga' zvikamu zveRussia zvine chekuita nechisimba.

Saka mashoko ose ari maviri anogona kureva chinhu chimwe chete: 'Kana masimba ekuMadokero akapinda muchiuto uye oita matambudziko ekupinda kwedu muUkraine, tinogona kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya, tichigadzira "migumisiro yakadai yausina kumboona munhoroondo yako yose".'

George HW Bush kutyisidzira kwenyukireya

Kunyange zvazvo mutauro wemhando iyi uchibatanidzwa nevaimbove mutungamiri weAmerica, VaDonald Trump, hauna kunyanya kusiyana neunoshandiswa nemutungamiri weAmerica, VaGeorge HW Bush.

Muna Ndira 1991, Bush akapa kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kuIraq pamberi peHondo yeGulf ya1991. Akanyora meseji yakaunzwa neruoko nemunyori weAmerica James Baker kugurukota rezvekunze kweIraq, Tariq Aziz. Mune yake tsamba, Bush akanyora kumutungamiri weIraqi Saddam Hussein:

'Regai nditaure, zvakare, kuti United States haizoshiviriri kushandiswa kwemakemikari kana zvombo zvipenyu kana kuparadzwa kweminda yeoiri yeKuwait. Kupfuurirazve, iwe uchabatwa zvakananga nekuita kwehugandanga kune chero nhengo yemubatanidzwa. Vanhu veAmerica vaizoda mhinduro yakasimba kwazvo. Iwe nenyika yako muchabhadhara mutengo wakaipisisa kana mukaodha zvinhu zvisina musoro zvakadai.'

bheka akawedzera nyevero yamashoko. Kana Iraq yakashandisa zvombo zvemakemikari kana zvipenyu kurwisa mauto eUS, 'Vanhu veAmerica vachada kutsiva. Uye isu tine nzira dzekuzvigadzirisa…. [T] yake haisi tyisidziro, ivimbiso.' Baker akaenda kunoti kuti, kana zvombo zvakadaro zvakashandiswa, chinangwa cheUS 'chaisazova kusunungurwa kweKuwait, asi kubviswa kwehutongi hweIraq hwazvino'. (Aziz akaramba kutora tsamba.)

Kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kuIraq muna Ndira 1991 kune zvimwe zvakafanana nekutyisidzira kwaPutin muna 2022.

Muzviitiko zvose zviri zviviri, tyisidziro yakabatanidzwa kune imwe nhambo yehondo uye yakanga iri, mupfungwa yakati, nhoo yenyukireya.

Munyaya yeIraq, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwaBush kwakanangana nekudzivirira kushandiswa kwemamwe marudzi ezvombo (makemikari uye zvipenyu) pamwe nemamwe marudzi ezviito zveIraqi (hugandanga, kuparadzwa kweminda yemafuta eKuwaiti).

Nhasi, kutyisidzira kwaPutin hakuna kunyanya kujeka. Matthew Harries weBritain's RUSI mauto thinktank, Akaudzwa ari muchengeti kuti kutaura kwaPutin kwaiva, pakutanga, kutyisidzira kwakajeka: 'tinogona kukukuvadza, uye kurwisana nesu kune ngozi'. Vaivewo chiyeuchidzo kuMadokero kuti vasaende kure zvakanyanya vachitsigira hurumende yeUkraine. Harries akati: 'Zvinogona kuva Russia iri kuronga kuwedzera kwakashata muUkraine uye iyi inyevero "kuchengeta" kuWest.' Muchiitiko ichi, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya inhoo yekudzivirira masimba ekupinda kubva kuNATO zvombo zvakazara, kwete chero rudzi rwechombo.

'Zviri pamutemo uye zvine musoro'

Kana mubvunzo wekuva pamutemo kwezvombo zvenyukireya wakaenda pamberi peDare reNyika muna 1996, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweUS kuIraq muna 1991 kwakataurwa nemumwe wevatongi mumaonero ake akanyorwa. Mutongi weDare reNyika Stephen Schwebel (kubva kuUS) akanyora kuti kutyisidzira kwenyukireya yeBush/Baker, uye kubudirira kwayo, kwakaratidza kuti, 'mune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu, kutyisidzira kwekushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya - chero bedzi zvichingori zvombo zvisina kurambidzwa nemutemo wenyika dzakawanda - zvingava zvose zviri pamutemo uye zvine musoro.'

Schwebel akapokana kuti, nekuti Iraq haina kushandisa makemikari kana zvipenyu zvombo mushure mekugamuchira kutyisidzira kwenyukireya yeBush / Baker, sezviri pachena. nekuti yakagamuchira meseji iyi, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya chaive Chinhu Chakanaka:

'Saka pane humbowo hunoshamisa hunoratidza kuti murwi akadziviswa kana kuti angave akadziviswa kushandisa zvombo zvisiri pamutemo zvekuparadza kukuru kurwisa mauto nenyika dzakashongedzerwa kurwisa hutsinye hwayo pakudaidzirwa kweUnited Nations neizvo mupambi akafunga kuti aityisidzira. kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kurwisa kana ikatanga kushandisa zvombo zvekuparadza kukuru kurwisa mauto emubatanidzwa. Zvinogona kuchengetedzwa zvakanyanya here kuti kutyisidzira kwaVaBaker - uye sekunge kwakabudirira - kutyisidzira kwaive kusiri pamutemo? Zvirokwazvo nheyo dzeChata yeChibatanwa chaMarudzi dzakatsigirwa panzvimbo pokutyorwa netyisidziro.'

Panogona kunge paine mutongi weRussia, imwe nguva mune ramangwana, anopokana kuti kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwaPutin zvakare 'kwakatsigira pane kutyora' misimboti yeUN Charter (uye yese yemutemo wepasi rose) nekuti yakashanda mu'kudzivisa' kupindira kweNATO. .

Taiwan, makumi matatu nematanhatu

Mumwe muenzaniso wekutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweUS inorangarirwa muWashington DC se'yakashanda' yakauya muna 1955, pamusoro peTaiwan.

Munguva yeFirst Taiwan Strait Crisis, iyo yakatanga munaGunyana 1954, iyo Chinese Communist People's Liberation Army (PLA) yakanaya moto wepfuti pazvitsuwa zveQuemoy neMatsu (yaitongwa nehurumende yeTaiwan's Guomindang/KMT). Mukati memazuva ekutanga kwebhomba, vakuru vevashandi veUS vakakurudzira kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kurwisa China mukupindura. Kwemwedzi yakati kuti, iyoyi yakaramba iri kurukurirano yapachivande, kana yakakomba.

PLA yakaita mabasa echiuto. (Zvitsuwa zvinobatanidzwa zviri pedyo zvikuru nenyika. Imwe ingori mamaira gumi kubva kumahombekombe kubva kuChina ichipfuura mamaira zana kubva kuchitsuwa chikuru cheTaiwan.) KMT yakaitawo mashandiro emauto panyika.

Musi wa15 Kurume 1955, munyori wenyika yeUS John Foster Dulles Akaudzwa musangano wevatori venhau wekuti US ingangopindira mugakava reTaiwan nezvombo zvenyukireya: 'zvombo zvidiki zveatomu… zvinopa mukana wekukunda munhandare yehondo pasina kukuvadza vanhuwo zvavo'.

Mharidzo iyi yakasimbiswa nemutungamiri weAmerica muzuva rakatevera. Dwight D Eisenhower Akaudzwa pepanhau rekuti, muhondo chero ipi zvayo, 'apo zvinhu izvi [zvombo zvenyukireya] zvinoshandiswa pazvinangwa zvehondo zvakanyanya uye nechinangwa chehondo, handioni chikonzero nei zvisingafanirwe kushandiswa sezvaungangoshandisa bara kana chimwe chinhu. '.

Zuva rakatevera, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri wenyika, Richard Nixon akati: 'Tactical kuputika kweatomu kwave kushandiswa uye kuchashandiswa kupesana nezvinangwa zvechero simba rehasha' muPacific.

Eisenhower akadzoka zuva rakatevera aine mutauro wakawanda we'bullet': hondo yenyukireya shoma yaive nzira nyowani yenyukireya uko 'mhuri nyowani yezvinonzi zvombo zvenyukireya zvehondo' zvinogona kunge 'kushandiswa semabara'.

Idzi dzaive kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kuChina, yaive nyika isiri yenyukireya. (China haina kuedza bhomba rekutanga renyukireya kusvika 1964.)

Pachivande, mauto eUS akasarudzwa zvinangwa zvenyukireya zvinosanganisira migwagwa, njanji uye nhandare dzendege padyo nemhenderekedzo yekumaodzanyemba kweChina uye zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS zvakaendeswa kunzvimbo yeUS kuOkinawa, Japan. Mauto eUS akagadzirira kuendesa mauto enyukireya kuTaiwan.

China yakamira kukanda zvitsuwa zveQuemoy neMatsu musi wa1 Chivabvu 1955.

Mukumisikidzwa kwemitemo yekunze yeUS, zvese izvi zvekutyisidzira kwenyukireya pamusoro peChina zvinoonekwa sekushandisa kwakabudirira kwezvombo zvenyukireya zveUS

Muna Ndira 1957, Dulles akapemberera pachena kushanda kwekutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweUS kurwisa China. Iye Akaudzwa upenyu kuti kutyisidzira kweUnited States kubhomba kuChina nezvombo zvenyukireya kwakanga kwaunza vatungamiriri vayo patafura yekurukurirano muKorea. Akataura kuti hurumende yakadzivisa China kutumira mauto kuVietnam kuburikidza nekutumira ndege mbiri dzeUnited States dzakashongedzerwa nezvombo zvenyukireya muSouth China Sea muna 1954. Dulles akawedzera kuti kutyisidzira kwakafanana kurwisa China nezvombo zvenyukireya 'pakupedzisira kwakavamisa muFormosa' (Taiwan). )

Mukugadzwa kwemitemo yekunze yeUS, zvese izvi zvekutyisidzira kwenyukireya pamusoro peChina zvinoonekwa sekubudirira kwekushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS, mienzaniso yakabudirira yekudheerera kwenyukireya (izwi rine hunhu nderekuti 'atomic diplomacy').

Idzi ndidzo dzimwe nzira idzo Madokero akagadzirira nzira yekutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwaPutin nhasi.

(Zvitsva, zvinotyisa, mashoko nezve pedyo-kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya muChipiri Straits Crisis muna 1958 vaiva kwakaratidza naDaniel Ellsberg muna 2021. Iye tweeted panguva iyoyo: 'Ziviso kuna @JoeBiden: dzidza kubva munhoroondo yakavanzika iyi, uye usadzokorore kupenga uku.')

Hardware

Iwe unogona zvakare kuita kutyisidzira kwenyukireya pasina mazwi, kuburikidza nezvaunoita nezvombo pachazvo. Nekuvaswededza pedyo nekukonana, kana nekusimudza mwero wechenjedzo yenyukireya, kana nekuita maekisesaizi ezvombo zvenyukireya, nyika inogona kunyatsotumira chiratidzo chenyukireya; kuita njodzi yenyukireya.

Putin akatamisa zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia, akazviisa payambiro yepamusoro, uye akavhura mukana wekuti azvitumire kuBelarus. Belarus vavakidzani veUkraine, yaive nzvimbo yekutangisa mauto ekuchamhembe kwemazuva mashoma apfuura, uye ikozvino yatumira varwi vayo kuti vabatane neuto reRussia.

Boka renyanzvi akanyora mu Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists musi wa16 Kukadzi, Russia isati yapinda zvakare:

Muna Kukadzi, mifananidzo yakavhurika yeRussia buildup yakasimbisa kuunganidzwa kwezvombo zvenguva pfupi zveIskander, kuiswa kwe9M729 pasi-akaparurwa mabhomba echikepe muKaliningrad, uye kufamba kweKhinzal air-launched cruise missiles kuenda kumuganhu weUkraine. Pamwe chete, zvombo izvi zvinokandwa zvinokwanisa kurova zvakadzika muEurope nekutyisidzira misoro yedzimwe nyika dzeNATO. Makombora eRussia haana kuitirwa kuti ashandiswe kurwisa Ukraine, asi kurwisa chero kuedza kweNATO kupindira mune zvinofungidzirwa neRussia "pedyo-kunze."'

Iyo mugwagwa-mobile, pfupi-renji (300 mamaira) Iskander-M zvombo zvinokandwa zvinogona kutakura zvakajairwa kana zvombo zvenyukireya. Vakaiswa mudunhu reRussia reKaliningrad, yakavakidzana nePoland, makiromita mazana maviri kubva kuchamhembe kweUkraine. kubva 2018. Russia yakavarondedzera se counter kuUS missile masisitimu akaiswa muEastern Europe. MaIskander-Ms anonzi akaunganidzwa uye akaiswa chenjedzo mukutarisana nekupinda uku.

The 9M729 pasi-launched cruise missile ('Screwdriver' kuenda kuNATO) inonzi neuto reRussia inongova nehupamhi hwemakiromita mazana matatu. Western vaongorori Tenda ine rwendo rwemakiromita ari pakati pe300 ne3,400. Iyo 9M729 inogona kutakura zvombo zvenyukireya. Sekureva kwemishumo, zvombo izvi zvakaiswawo mudunhu reKaliningard, kumuganhu wePoland. Yese yeWestern Europe, kusanganisira iyo UK, inogona kurohwa neaya makomba, kana vaongorori vekuMadokero vari chokwadi pamusoro pehuwandu hwe9M729.

Iyo Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ('Dagger') imhepo-yakavhurwa pasi-anorwisa cruise missile ine rwendo rwemakiromita angangoita 1,240 mamaira. Inogona kutakura zvombo zvenyukireya, 500kt warhead ine simba rakapetwa kakawanda kupfuura bhomba reHiroshima. Yakagadzirwa kuti ishandiswe kutarisana ne 'high-value ground targets'. Chombo chaiva yakashandiswa kuKaliningrad (zvakare, iyo ine muganho nenhengo yeNATO, Poland) mukutanga kwaFebruary.

NaIskander-Ms, zvombo zvakange zvatovapo, level yekuchenjerera yakasimudzwa uye ivo vakagadziridzwa kuita chiito.

Putin akabva asimudza mwero wekuchenjerera zvose Zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia. Pa 27 Kukadzi, Putin akati:

'Vakuru vakuru venyika dzinotungamira dzeNato vanobvumidzawo kutaura zvehasha pamusoro penyika yedu, saka ndinoraira gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kwenyika nemukuru wemauto [wemauto eRussia] kuti vaendese mauto anodzivirira euto reRussia kune imwe nzira yakakosha. zvebasa rekurwa.'

(Mutauriri weKremlin Dmitry Peskov gare gare chinotsanangurwa kuti 'mukuru mukuru' ari kutaurwa aive munyori wekunze weBritish, Liz Truss, akange ayambira kuti hondo yeUkraine ingangotungamira 'kunetsana' uye kukakavara pakati peNATO neRussia.)

Matthew Kroenig, nyanzvi yenyukireya kuAtlantic Council, Akaudzwa ari Financial Times: 'Iri ndiro zano remauto reRussia rekumisa kurwisa kwakajairika nekutyisidzira kwenyukireya, kana izvo zvinozivikanwa se"kuwedzera kudzikamisa zano". Mharidzo yekumadokero, Nato neU.

Nyanzvi dzakavhiringika nemutsara wekuti 'special mode of fight duty', sezvazviri kwete chikamu chedzidziso yenyukireya yeRussia. Iyo haina chirevo chehondo chaiyo, nemamwe mazwi, saka hazvina kunyatsojeka zvazvinoreva, kunze kwekuisa zvombo zvenyukireya pane imwe mhando yekungwarira.

Kurayira kwaPutin aiva 'murairo wekutanga' pane kukonzeresa kugadzirira kurwisa, sekureva kwaPavel Podvig, mumwe wenyanzvi dzepasi rose nezvezvombo zvenyukireya zvekuRussia (uye musayendisiti kuUN Institute for Disarmament Research muGeneva). Podvig akatsanangura: 'Sezvo ini ndinonzwisisa nzira iyo hurongwa hunoshanda, munguva yerunyararo haigone kutumira hurongwa hwekutanga, sekunge masekete "akabviswa".' Izvozvo rinoreva 'haugone kufambisa chiratidzo kunyangwe uchida. Nyangwe ukadzvanya bhatani hapana chinoitika.' Ikozvino, dunhu rabatanidzwa, 'saka odha yekutanga inogona kuenda kuburikidza kana yakapihwa'.

'Kubatanidza dunhu' zvinoreva zvakare kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia zvino zvinogona kuva yakatanga kunyange kana Putin pachake akaurayiwa kana asingasvikike - asi izvo zvinogona kuitika chete kana kuputika kwenyukireya kuchionekwa munzvimbo yeRussia, maererano nePodvig.

Sezvineiwo, referendamu muBelarus pakupera kwaFebruary anovhura musuwo kufambisa zvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia kunyange pedyo neUkraine, nekuzvimisa pavhu reBelorussia kekutanga kubvira 1994.

'Kuumba ruremekedzo rwakakwana'

Zvese zviri zviviri kufambisa zvombo zvenyukireya pedyo nekukonana uye kusimudza mwero wechenjedzo yenyukireya zvakashandiswa kuratidza kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kwemakumi emakore akawanda.

Semuyenzaniso, panguva yehondo yeBritain neIndonesia (1963 – 1966), iyo inozivikanwa pano se'Malasia Confrontation', UK yakatumira mabhomba enyukireya ane hunyanzvi, zvikamu zve'V-bhomba' simba rekudzivirira nyukireya. Isu tinoziva ikozvino kuti hurongwa hwemauto hunongobatanidza Victor kana Vulcan mabhomba akatakura nekudonhedza mabhomba akajairwa. Zvisinei, nemhaka yokuti vakanga vari rutivi rwesimba renyukireya, vakatakura tyisidziro yenyukireya.

In imwe RAF Historical Society Journal Nyaya yedambudziko iri, munyori wenhoroondo dzemauto uye aimbove mutyairi weRAF Humphrey Wynn akanyora:

'Kunyangwe aya ma-V-bhomba akaiswa mune yakajairika basa hapana kupokana kuti kuvapo kwavo kwakave nemhedzisiro. SemaB-29 ayo akatumirwa neUnited States kuEurope panguva yedambudziko reBerlin (1948-49), vaizivikanwa se "nyukireya inokwanisa", kushandisa izwi rekuAmerica raive nyore, sezvakaita Canberras kubva kuNear. East Air Force neRAF Germany.'

Kune vari mukati, 'nuclear deterrence' inosanganisira kutyisa (kana 'kugadzira rukudzo rwakakwana' pakati) nevagari vemo.

Kuti zvive pachena, RAF yakanga yatenderera V-mabhomba kuburikidza neSingapore kare, asi munguva yehondo iyi, yakachengetwa kupfuura nguva yavo yenguva dzose. RAF air chief marshal David Lee anonyora munhoroondo yake yeRAF muAsia:

'ruzivo rwesimba reRAF uye kugona kwakagadzira rukudzo rwakakwana pakati pevatungamiriri veIndonesia, uye kudzivirira mhedzisiro yeRAF air defense fighters, light mabhomba uye V-mabhomba pachikwata kubva kuBomber Command aiva mhedziso.' (David Lee, Kumabvazuva: Nhoroondo yeRAF muFar East, 1945 - 1970, London: HMSO, 1984, p213, simbiso yakawedzerwa)

Isu tinoona kuti, kune vemukati, 'kudzivirira kwenyukireya' kunosanganisira kutyisa (kana 'kugadzira rukudzo rwakakwana' pakati) nevagari vemo - mune iyi kesi, kune rimwe divi renyika kubva kuBritain.

Izvo hazvidi kutaurwa kuti Indonesia yaive, panguva yeKutarisana, sanhasi, isiri-nuclear-chombo nyika.

Hurukuro yaPutin yekuisa mauto eRussia 'deterrence' payambiro nhasi ane chirevo chakafanana maererano ne'deterrence = kutyisidzira'.

Unogona kunge uchinetseka kana maVictors nemaVulcans vakatumirwa kuSingapore chete nezvombo zvakajairika. Izvo zvingadai zvisina kukanganisa chiratidzo chenyukireya chine simba aya mabhomba enyukireya akatumirwa, sezvo maIndonesia aisafanira kuziva mubhadharo wavakatakura. Iwe unogona kutumira Trident submarine muGungwa Dzvuku nhasi uye, kunyangwe yaive isina zvachose chero chero mhando yekuputika, yaizodudzirwa sekutyisidzira kwenyukireya pamusoro peCrimea nemauto eRussia zvakanyanya.

Sezvinoitika, mutungamiriri weBritish, Harold Macmillan aive mvumo kuchengetwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya paRAF Tengah muSingapore muna 1962. A dummy Red Beard tactical chombo chenyukireya chakaendeswa kuTengah muna 1960 uye makumi mana nesere chaiwo Red Beards yakashandiswa ikoko muna 1962. Naizvozvo mabhomba enyukireya akanga achiwanika munzvimbomo mukati mehondo neIndonesia kubvira muna 1963 kusvikira muna 1966. (The Red Beards haina kubviswa kutozosvikira 1971, apo Britain yakabvisa kuvapo kwayo kwehondo muSingapore neMalaysia chose chose.)

Kubva kuSingapore kuenda kuKaliningrad

Pane kufanana pakati peBritain kuchengetedza V-mabhomba muSingapore munguva yehondo neIndonesia neRussia kutumira 9M729 cruise missile uye Khinzal air-launch missile kuKaliningrad panguva yezvino Ukraine dambudziko.

Muzviitiko zvese izvi, nyika yezvombo zvenyukireya iri kuedza kutyisidzira vanoipikisa nemukana wekukwira kwenyukireya.

Uku kudheerera kwenyukireya. Icho chimiro chehugandanga hwenyukireya.

Kune mimwe mienzaniso yakawanda yekuiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya inogona kutaurwa. Pane kudaro, ngatienderei pane 'yambiro yenyukireya senjodzi yenyukireya'.

Mhosva mbiri dzine ngozi zvikuru dzeiyi dzakauya mukati mehondo ya1973 yeMiddle East.

VaIsraeri pavakatya kuti hondo yakanga yava kuzorwa nayo, zvakavanetsa akaiswa zvombo zvenyukireya-zvakashongedzerwa zvepakati-renji zveJericho ballistic zvikomba payakangwarira, zvichiita kuti masiginicha awo emwaranzi aonekwe kundege dzeUS dzekuongorora. Zvinangwa zvekutanga ndizvo akati kubatanidza dzimbahwe remauto eSyria, pedyo neDhamasiko, uye nedzimbahwe remauto reEygptian, pedyo neCairo.

Zuva rimwechete iro kuunganidzwa kwakawanikwa, 12 Gumiguru, US yakatanga kubhururuka nendege kwezvombo izvo Israeri yanga ichida - uye US yanga ichiramba - kwenguva yakati.

Chinhu chinoshamisa payambiro iyi ndechekuti yaive tyisidziro yenyukireya yainyanya kunanga shamwari kwete vavengi.

Muchokwadi, pane gakava rekuti iri ndiro basa guru rezvombo zvenyukireya zveIsrael. Iyi nharo inoratidzwa muSeymour Hersh's SaSamsoni Sarudzo, ine a Detailed account ye12 Gumiguru yambiro yeIsrael. (Mamwe maonero e12 Gumiguru anopiwa mune izvi Kudzidza US.)

Nguva pfupi yapfuura 12 Gumiguru dambudziko, US yakasimudza nyukireya yambiro yezvombo zvayo.

Mushure mekugamuchira rubatsiro rwemauto eUS, mauto eIsrael akatanga kufambira mberi uye kumisa mhirizhonga kwakaziviswa neUN musi wa14 Gumiguru.

Mukuru wemauto emuIsrael Ariel Sharon akabva atyora chibvumirano ndokuyambuka Suez Canal achipinda muEgypt. Achitsigirwa nemauto makuru ane zvombo pasi pemukuru Avraham Adan, Sharon akatyisidzira kukunda mauto eEgipita zvachose. Cairo yakanga iri mungozi.

Soviet Union, mutsigiri mukuru weEgypt panguva iyoyo, yakatanga kutamisa mauto epamusoro ayo kuti abatsire kudzivirira guta guru reEgypt.

Iyo US nhau agency UPI mishumo imwe vhezheni yezvakaitika zvinotevera:

'Kumisa Sharon [naAdan], Kissinger akasimudza mamiriro echenjedzo emauto ese eUnited States pasi rose. Inonzi DefCons, yekudzivirira mamiriro, vanoshanda mukudzika kurongeka kubva kuDefCon V kuenda kuDefCon I, inova hondo. Kissinger akaraira DefCon III. Sekureva kweaimbove mukuru mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende, danho rekutamira kuDefCon III "rakatumira meseji yakajeka yekuti kutyora kwaSharon chibvumirano chekumisa mhirizhonga kwaitipinza mukukonana neveSoviet uye kuti isu takanga tisina chido chekuona Mauto eEgypt achiparadzwa." '

Hurumende yeIsrael yakadaidza kumisa kuSharon/Adan kumisa-kupwanya kurova Egypt.

Noam Chomsky anopa a kududzira kwakasiyana zvezviitiko:

'Makore gumi gare gare, Henry Kissinger akadana yambiro yenyukireya mumazuva ekupedzisira ehondo yeIsrael-Arab ya1973. Chinangwa chaive chekuyambira vanhu vekuRussia kuti vasapindire nemafambiro ake akapfava, akagadzirirwa kuve nechokwadi chekukunda kweIsrael, asi kwakaganhurirwa, kuitira kuti US irambe ichitonga dunhu unilaterally. Uye mafambisirwo acho akanga akapfava. IUS neRussia dzakasunga pamwe chete kumisa kurwa, asi Kissinger akazivisa Israel muchivande kuti vaigona kuzvirega. Nokudaro kudikanwa kwokungwarira kwenyukireya kutyisidzira vanhu vokuRussia.'

Mune chero dudziro, kusimudzwa kweyeUS yenyukireya yambiro nhanho kwaive kwekugadzirisa dambudziko uye kumisa miganhu pamaitiro evamwe. Zvinogoneka kuti yazvino yaPutin 'special mode yebasa rekurwa' yambiro yenyukireya ine zvinokurudzira zvakafanana. Muzviitiko zvese izvi, sekutaura kwaChomsky, kusimudza yambiro yenyukireya kunoderedza kwete kuwedzera kuchengetedzeka nekuchengetedzeka kwevagari vemunyika.

Carter Dzidziso, Putin Dzidziso

Ikozvino kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweRussia kunotyisa uye kutyora kwakajeka kweUN Charter: 'Vese Nhengo dzicharamba muhukama hwavo hwepasirese kubva. kutyisidzira kana kushandiswa kwechisimba kupikisa nharaunda kana rusununguko rwezvematongerwo enyika chero ipi zvayo nyika….' (Chitsauko 2, chikamu 4, simbiso yakawedzerwa)

Muna 1996, World Court akatonga kuti kutyisidzira kana kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya 'kazhinji' hazvisi pamutemo.

Iyo imwe nzvimbo yaigona kuona mukana wekushandiswa kwepamutemo kwezvombo zvenyukireya yaive yekutyisidzira 'kupona kwenyika'. Dare akati hazvaigona 'kugumisa zvakasimba kuti kutyisidzira kana kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya kungava kuri pamutemo kana kuti kusiri pamutemo mumamiriro ezvinhu akanyanyisa ekuzvidzivirira, umo kurarama kweNyika kunenge kuri mungozi'.

Mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino, kupona kweRussia senyika hakusi pangozi. Naizvozvo, maererano nekududzirwa kwemutemo weDare Renyika Dzepasi Pose, kutyisidzira kwenyukireya kuri kuburitswa neRussia hakusi pamutemo.

Izvo zvinoendawo kune US neBritish kutyisidzira kwenyukireya. Chero zvakaitika muTaiwan muna 1955 kana muIraq muna 1991, kupona kwenyika kweUS kwaisava panjodzi. Chero zvakaitika muMalaysia pakati pemakore makumi matanhatu, pakanga pasina njodzi yekuti United Kingdom yaisazopona. Naizvozvo uku kutyisidzira kwenyukireya (uye zvimwe zvakawanda zvingataurwa) zvaive zvisiri pamutemo.

Vatauri vekuMadokero vanomhanyira kushora kupenga kwenyukireya kwaPutin vangaita zvakanaka kurangarira kupenga kwenyukireya kwekuMadokero kwekare.

Zvinogoneka kuti izvo Russia iri kuita iko zvino kugadzira mutemo wakajairika, kudhirowa tambo yenyukireya mujecha maererano nezvaichaita uye isingabvumire kuitika muEastern Europe.

Kana zvirizvo, izvi zvinenge zvakada kufanana neCarter Doctrine, imwe 'inotyisa' kutyisidzira kwenyukireya ine chekuita nenzvimbo. Musi wa23 Ndira 1980, mukutaura kwake kweState of the Union, aive mutungamiri weUS Jimmy Carter akati:

'Chinzvimbo chedu ngachinyatsojeka: Kuedza kwechero mauto ekunze kuti atore kutonga kwePersian Gulf dunhu kuchaonekwa sekurwisa zvakakosha zveUnited States of America, uye kurwiswa kwakadaro kuchadzoserwa neimwe nzira inodiwa. , kusanganisira mauto.'

'Chero nzira dzinodiwa' dzaisanganisira zvombo zvenyukireya. Sevadzidzi vaviri vemauto emugungwa eUS komenda: 'Kunyange iyo inonzi Carter Doctrine isina kutaura zvakananga nezvezvombo zvenyukireya, zvaitendwa zvakanyanya panguva iyoyo kuti kutyisidzira kwekushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kwaive chikamu chehurongwa hweUS kurambidza maSoviet kuti aende kumaodzanyemba kubva kuAfghanistan akananga kune vane mafuta. Persian Gulf.'

Iyo Carter Doctrine yanga isiri kutyisidzira kwenyukireya mune imwe mamiriro edambudziko, asi mutemo wakamira wekuti zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS zvinogona kushandiswa kana mauto ekunze (kunze kweUS pachayo) akaedza kuwana hutongi pamusoro pemafuta ekuMiddle East. Zvinogoneka kuti hurumende yeRussia ikozvino inoda kumisa amburera yezvombo zvenyukireya yakafanana pamusoro peEastern Europe, Putin Doctrine. Kana zvakadaro, zvichave zvine njodzi uye zvisiri pamutemo seCarter Doctrine.

Vatauri vekuMadokero vanomhanyira kushora kupenga kwenyukireya kwaPutin vangaita zvakanaka kurangarira kupenga kwenyukireya kwekuMadokero kwekare. Chinenge hapana chakachinja mumakumi mashoma emakore apfuura kuMadokero, kungave muruzivo rweveruzhinji uye maitiro kana mumatongerwo enyika nemaitiro, kudzora nyika dzekuMadokero kuita kutyisidzira kwenyukireya mune ramangwana. Uyu mufungo unodzamisa pfungwa sezvatinotarisana nekusateerera mutemo kwenyukireya yeRussia nhasi.

Milan Rai, mupepeti we Peace News, ndiye munyori we Tactical Trident: Iyo Rifkind Dzidziso uye Yetatu Nyika (Drava Mapepa, 1995). Mimwe mienzaniso yekutyisidzira kwenyukireya kweBritish inogona kuwanikwa mune yake chinyorwa, 'Kufunga Zvisingafungike nezve Zvisingafungidzike - Kushandiswa kweNuclear Weapons uye Propaganda Model' (2018).