Yakabudirira Sei Hondo Yepasi Pese paGandanga? Uchapupu hweMhedzisiro Yemhedzisiro

by Peace Sciences Digest, August 24, 2021

Kuongorora uku kunopfupisa uye kunoratidza kutsvagurudza kunotevera: Kattelman, KT (2020). Kuongorora budiriro yeHondo Yepasi Pose paKutyisidzira: Kurwiswa kwemagandanga kuwanda uye nemhedzisiro. Simba reAsymmetric Kurwisana, 13(1), 67-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384

Ongororo iyi ndeyechipiri yezvikamu zvina zvezvikamu zvekurangarira makore makumi maviri aGunyana 20, 11. isu tinotarisira kuti dzino dzakateedzana dzimutse kufunga kwakakomba kwekupindura kweUS kuhugandanga uye kuvhura nhaurirano pane dzimwe nzira dzisiri dzechisimba kuhondo nemhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika.

Kutaura mapoinzi

• MuHondo Yepasi Pose Yekutyisa (GWOT), nyika dzekubatana pamwe nekutumirwa kwemauto muAfghanistan neIraq vakasangana nekutsiva kwemagandanga emunyika dzakanangana nevagari vavo sekumukira.
• Kudzorera kwekudzorera kwekurwisa kwemagandanga kwenyika dzakasangana nenyika dzemubatanidzwa kunoratidza Hondo Yepasi Pose paGandanga haina kuzadzisa chinangwa chayo chekuchengetedza vagari kubva kugandanga.

Kiyi Insight yeKuziva Maitiro

• Chibvumirano chiri kubuda pamusoro pekukundikana kweGlobal Hondo pamusoro peGandanga (GWOT) chinofanirwa kukurudzira kuongororwa kweakawanda mutemo wekunze weUS uye shanduko kuenda kunzira inofambira mberi yekune dzimwe nyika, izvo zvaizoita zvakawanda kuchengetedza vagari kubva mukuchengetedzwa kwemagandanga.

pfupiso

Kyle T. Kattelman anoongorora kuti chiito chemauto, kunyanya bhutsu pasi, chakadzora kuwanda kwekurwiswa kwemagandanga nenyika dzeAl-Qaeda nehukama hwayo nenyika dzakabatana munguva yeHondo Yenyika Yose paGandanga (GWOT). Anotora nzira yakanangana nenyika kuongorora kana chiuto chakabudirira mukuita chimwe chezvinangwa zvakakosha zveGWOT - kudzivirira kurwiswa kwemagandanga kuvanhu muUS nekuMadokero zvakanyanya.

Al-Qaeda akatora mutoro wekurwiswa kwakaitwa muna Kurume muna 2004 nezvitima zvina zvevaperekedzi muMadrid, Spain, uye nemabhomba ekuzviuraya muna Chikunguru 2005 muLondon, UK Imwe ongororo inosimbisa kuti zviitiko zviviri izvi zvaive kutsiva kwemagandanga epasi rose. Al-Qaeda yakanangana nenyika idzi nekuda kwekuenderera mberi kwechiuto muGWOT. Iyi mienzaniso miviri inoratidza kuti mipiro yechiuto muGWOT inogona sei kuva isina maturo, zvingangoita kuti kudzoreredza kwemagandanga emunyika yose kurwisa vagari venyika.

Tsvagurudzo yaKattelman inotarisa kupindira kwemauto, kana mauto ari pasi, nekuti ndiwo "moyo weanobudirira kupokana" uye zvingangoita kuti veWestern vakasununguka veruzhinji mahedheni vacharamba vachivaendesa, kunyangwe vachipikiswa neveruzhinji, kuti vabudirire zvido zvavo zvepasirese. Ongororo yapfuura inoratidzawo humbowo hwekurwisa kwekutsiva mune zvekupindira kwemauto nemabasa. Nekudaro, zvinowanzo tarisa pamhando yekurwiswa, kwete iro boka rinotungamira. Muku "dhana" dhata nezvekurwiswa kwemagandanga epasi rose, kwakasiyana pfungwa, madzinza, magariro, kana zvechitendero zvinokurudzira zveumwe nemagandanga.

Kuvaka pane dzidziso dzepashure dzekudzokera shure, munyori anotsanangudza yake yemhando inotarisa kugona uye kurudziro kuti unzwisise kuti kuendeswa kwemauto munyika kunokanganisa sei kuwanda kwemagandanga. Muhondo isymmetric, nyika dzichava nehunyanzvi hukuru hwemauto maererano nemasangano emagandanga avanogona kunge vachirwira, uye nyika mbiri nemasangano emagandanga achave nematanho ekurwisa. MuGWOT, nyika dzemubatanidzwa dzakapa zvese zvemauto uye zvisiri zvemauto kune akasiyana mafambiro. Kurudziro yeAl-Qaeda yekurwisa nhengo dzemubatanidzwa mhiri kweUnited States dzakasiyana. Saizvozvowo, munyori anofungidzira kuti iyo huru yemubatanidzwa yemubatanidzwa wechiuto kuGWOT, ingangove mukana wekurwiswa nemagandanga epasi rose neAl-Qaeda, sezvo kuita kwayo kwemauto kuchizowedzera kukurudzira kweAl-Qaeda kurirwisa.

Pachidzidzo ichi, dhata rinotorwa kubva kunzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana dzinoteedzera zviitiko zvehugandanga pamwe neuto remauto kuAfghanistan neIraq pakati pa1998 na2003. Kunyanya, munyori anoongorora zviitiko zve "kushandiswa zvisiri pamutemo kwesimba nemhirizhonga nemutambi asiri wehurumende kuitira kuwana shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika, zveupfumi, zvechitendero kana zvemagariro kuburikidza nekutya, kumanikidzwa kana kutyisidzirwa ”zvinonzi zvakanangana neAl-Qaeda nevamwe vayo. Kuti abvise kurwiswa kwe "mweya we" kurwa-kurwa "kubva pamuenzaniso, munyori akaongorora zviitiko" zvakazvimirira mukumukira kana dzimwe mhando dzekupokana. "

Zvakawanikwa zvinoratidza kuti nhengo dzemubatanidzwa dzinopa mauto kuAfghanistan neIraq muGWOT yakaona kuwedzera kwekurwiswa kwemagandanga epasi rose kunopesana nevagari vayo. Zvakare, iyo yakakwira iyo chikamu chemupiro, ichiyerwa neneti mambure yemasoja, inowedzera kuwanda kwekurwiswa kwemagandanga epasirose. Izvi zvaive zvechokwadi kune gumi nyika dzemubatanidzwa pamwe nekuwanda kweavhareji mauto. Pakati penyika gumi dzepamusoro, pakanga paine akati wandei akasangana nemagandanga mashoma kana kusarwisa pasati paendeswa mauto asi ndokuzoona kusvetuka kukuru mukurwisa mumashure. Kutumirwa kwemauto zvakapetwa kaviri mukana wekuti nyika irwiswe nemagandanga epasi rose neAl-Qaeda. Muchokwadi, kune yega-yuniti kuwedzera muhondo yevarwi pakave nekuwedzera kwe11.7% kuwanda kweAl-Qaeda transnational kurwisa kwemagandanga kurwisa nyika iri kupa. Kusvika parizvino, iyo US yakapa mauto mazhinji (118,918) uye vakasangana nekurwiswa nemagandanga eAl-Qaeda (61). Kuona kuti data harifambiswe neUS chete, munyori akaitazve bvunzo uye akagumisa kuti hapana shanduko yakakura mumhedzisiro nekubviswa kweUS kubva muyenzaniso.

Mune mamwe mazwi, paive nekudzokera shure, muchimiro chekudzorera kwekurwisa kwemagandanga, kurwisa kwemauto muGWOT. Maitiro emhirizhonga akaratidzirwa mukutsvagurudza aya anoratidza pfungwa yekuti hugandanga hwepasi rose hahuitwe zvechisimba. Asi, vatambi "vanofunga" vanogona kuendesa zviito zvehugandanga hwepasi rose zvine hungwaru. Sarudzo yenyika yekutora chikamu mumhirizhonga yemauto inopesana nesangano remagandanga inogona kuwedzera kukurudzira kwechikwata chemagandanga, zvichizounza kutsiva kwemagandanga epasi rose kune vagari venyika iyoyo. Mukupedzisa, munyori anopedzisa kuti GWOT haina kubudirira mukuita vagari venhengo dzemubatanidzwa vakachengeteka kubva kugandanga repasi rose.

Kuzivisa Kudzidzira

Kunyangwe paine tarisiro yakamanikana yerekutsvagisa nezvekuendeswa kwemauto uye kukanganisa kwayo kune rimwe gandanga, zviwanikwa zvinogona kudzidzisa mutemo wezvekunze weUS zvakanyanya. Uku kutsvagurudza kunosimbisa kuvepo kwekudzokera shure kwemauto kupindira mukurwisa hugandanga hwepasi rose. Kana chinangwa chiri chekuchengetedza vagari vakachengeteka, sezvazvaive zvakaita neGWOT, iyi tsvagiridzo inoratidza kuti kupindira kwemauto kunogona sei kusaita basa. Uyezve, iyo GWOT ine mutengo pamusoro pe $ 6 trillion, uye vanopfuura zviuru mazana masere vakafa nekuda kweizvozvo, kusanganisira 800,000 vanhuwo zvavo, maererano neMutengo weHondo Chirongwa. Tichifunga izvi mupfungwa, iyo US yekune dzimwe nyika gadziriro yekumisikidza inofanirwa kufunga nezvekuvimba kwayo neuto remauto. Asi, maiwe, mutemo mukuru wezvekunze unovimbisa kuramba uchivimba nemauto se "mhinduro" yekutyisidzira kwekunze, zvichinongedzera kudikanwa kweUS kufunga nezvekugamuchira inofambira mberi mutemo wekunze.

Mukati mechirongwa cheUS chekune dzimwe nyika, gadziriso dzemitemo dzinosimbisa chiito chemauto chiripo. Mumwe muenzaniso wakadai ndi ina-chikamu kupindira kwemauto zano kugadzirisa hugandanga hwepasi rose. Kutanga uye pamberi pezvese, zano iri rinokurudzira kudzivirira kubuda kwesangano remagandanga pakutanga. Kusimbisa kugona kwemauto uye shanduko yezvekuchengetedza zvinogona kukonzera kukundwa nekukurumidza kwesangano remagandanga asi hazvingatadzise boka iri kuzvimisikidza mune ramangwana. Chechipiri, chirongwa chenguva refu uye chakasiyana-siyana chirongwa chinofanirwa kuisirwa, kusanganisira zvemauto uye zvisiri zvemauto, senge mushure mekupokana kugadzikana nekusimudzira. Chechitatu, chiuto chinofanira kunge chiri chekupedzisira. Chekupedzisira, mapato ese akakodzera anofanirwa kuverengerwa munhaurirano dzekupedza mhirizhonga nehondo.

Kunyangwe ichirumbidzwa, iri pamusoro gadziriso yemutemo ichiri kuda kuti mauto atore danho pane imwe nhanho-uye haitore zvakanyanyisa zvakakwana kuti danho remauto rinogona kuwedzera, pane kudzikisira, kunetseka kwemunhu kurwisa. Sevamwe vakaita nharo, kunyangwe kupindira kwemauto eU.S. Uku kutsvagisa uye chibvumirano chiri kubuda pamusoro pekukundikana kweGWOT chinofanira kukurudzira kuongororwa kwehurongwa hwakawanda hweUS yekune dzimwe nyika. Ichichinja kupfuura mutemo wekunze, danho rinofambira mberi rekune dzimwe nyika rinosanganisira kuzvidavirira kwekutora danho rakaipa rekunze, kukoshesa mubatanidzwa nezvibvumirano zvepasirese, kurwisa chiuto, kusimbisa kubatana pakati pemitemo yekumba neyekunze, nekuderedza bhajeti remauto. Kushandisa zvakawanikwa pakutsvagisa uku kwaizoreva kurega kubva muchiuto kurwisa magandanga epasirose. Panzvimbo pekuita mhirizhonga nekuwedzeredza kutyisidzira kwemagandanga epasi rose sechirevo chekurwira chiuto, hurumende yeUS inofanirwa kufunga nezvekutyisidzira kwekuchengeteka uye kufunga nezvekuti kutyisidzira uku kunoita sei mukubuda kwehugandanga hwepasi rose. Mune zvimwe zviitiko, sezvakatsanangurwa mukutsvagisa pamusoro, kupindira kwemauto kurwisa hugandanga hwepasirese kunogona kuwedzera kushupika kwevagari. Kuderedza kusaenzana kwepasirese, kudzikisira shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, uye kudzima rubatsiro kuhurumende vachishingairira kutyora kodzero dzevanhu zvaizoita zvakanyanya kudzivirira maAmerican kubva kumagandanga epasirose kupfuura kupindira kwemauto. [KH]

Kuenderera Kuverenga

Crenshaw, M. (2020). Kufungisisa hugandanga hwepasi rose: Maitiro akabatanidzwa. United States Institute yeRunyararo. Yakadzorerwa Nyamavhuvhu 12, 2021, kubva https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2020-02/pw_158-rethinking_transnational_terrorism_an_integrated_approach.pdf

Mariro yeHondo. (2020, Gunyana). Mari dzevanhu. Yakadzorerwa Nyamavhuvhu 5, 2021, kubva https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human

Mariro yeHondo. (2021, Chikunguru). Mari dzehupfumi. Yakadzorerwa Nyamavhuvhu 5, 2021, kubva https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/economic

Sitaraman, G. (2019, Kubvumbi 15). Kubuda kweanofambira mberi mutemo wekunze. Hondo pamatombo. Yakadzorerwa Nyamavhuvhu 5, 2021, kubva https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/the-emergence-of-progressive-foreign-policy/  

Kuperman, AJ (2015, Kurume / Kubvumbi). Libya yaLibya inodzvinyirira: Kupindira kwakanaka-kwakadii kwakaguma mukundikana. Foreign Affairs, 94 (2). Yakadzorerwa Nyamavhuvhu 5, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2019-02-18/obamas-libya-debacle

Mashoko anokosha: Hondo Yenyika Yose paUgandanga; hugandanga hwepasi rose; Al-Qaeda; kupesana nehugandanga; Iraki; Afuganisitani