Iyo US Yaigona Sei Kubatsira Kuunza Runyararo kuUkraine?

NaNicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Kubvumbi 28, 2022
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Musi waApril 21, Mutungamiri Biden vakazivisa zvitsva zvinotumirwa yezvombo kuUkraine, pamutengo wemadhora mazana masere emamiriyoni kuvateresi vekuUS. Musi waApril 800, Vanyori Blinken naAustin vakazivisa pamusoro $ Miriyoni 300 mamwe rubatsiro rwemauto. United States ikozvino yashandisa madhora mabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhora pazvombo zveUkraine kubva pakurwisa kweRussia, zvichiunza rubatsiro rwemauto eUS kuUkraine kubvira 3.7 kusvika munenge. $ 6.4 bhiriyoni.

Kunyanya kukoshesa kweRussia airstrikes muUkraine kwave kuri Kuparadza zvakawanda zvezvombo izvi sezvinobvira zvisati zvasvika kumberi kwehondo, saka hazvina kujeka kuti mauto makuru aya ekutakura zvombo anoshanda sei chaizvo. Rimwe gumbo reUS "rutsigiro" rweUkraine zvirango zvayo zvehupfumi uye zvemari kuRussia, iyo inoshanda zvakare zvakanyanya kusava nechokwadi.

Munyori Mukuru weUN, Antonio Guterres kushanyira Moscow neKyiv kuyedza kutanga nhaurirano dzekumisa pfuti uye chibvumirano cherunyararo. Sezvo tarisiro dzenhaurirano dzerunyararo dzekare muBelarus neTurkey dzakagezwa mukukwira kwemauto, kutaura kwehutsinye uye kupomera mhosva dzehondo dzezvematongerwo enyika, chinangwa cheSecretary General Guterres chinogona kunge chiri tariro yakanakisa yerunyararo muUkraine.  

Iyi nzira yetariro yekutanga yegadziriso yezvematongerwo enyika inokurumidza kupedzwa nehondo psychosis haina kujairika. Dhata pamusoro pekuti hondo dzinopera sei kubva kuUppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) inojekesa kuti mwedzi wekutanga wehondo unopa mukana wakanakisa wechibvumirano cherunyararo. Iro hwindo ikozvino rapfuura kuUkraine. 

An ongororo yedata reUCDP neCentre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) yakawana kuti makumi mana nemana muzana ehondo dzinopera mukati memwedzi unopera muchibvumirano chekumisa pfuti nerunyararo pane kukundwa kwakasimba kwerimwe divi, nepo izvo zvinodzikira kusvika ku44% muhondo. izvo zvinogara pakati pemwedzi negore. Hondo padzinongopinda mugore rechipiri, dzinotowedzera kusachinjika uye dzinogara makore anopfuura gumi.

CSIS shamwari Benjamin Jensen, uyo akaongorora data yeUCDP, akapedzisa, "Nguva yekutaurirana ikozvino. Kana hondo ikatora nguva refu pasina chibvumirano nemapato ese ari maviri, zvinoita kuti pave nekukakavadzana kwenguva refu… Pamusoro pechirango, vakuru vakuru veRussia vanoda nzira inogoneka yezvematongerwo enyika inogadzirisa zvinonetsa mapato ese.

Kuti ubudirire, diplomacy inotungamira kuchibvumirano cherunyararo inofanira kusangana nezvishanu zvakakosha mamiriro:

Kutanga, mativi ose anofanira kuwana betsero kubva muchibvumirano chorugare chinokurira icho anofunga kuti anogona kuwana kupfurikidza nehondo.

US nevakuru vemubatanidzwa vari kurwa hondo yeruzivo kukurudzira pfungwa yekuti Russia irikurasikirwa nehondo uye kuti Ukraine inogona nehondo. kukunda Russia, kunyangwe sevamwe vakuru vakuru bvuma kuti izvozvo zvinogona kutora makore akawanda.      

Muchokwadi, hapana divi richabatsirikana nehondo inogara kwenguva refu iyo inotora mwedzi yakawanda kana makore. Hupenyu hwemamiriyoni evaUkraine hucharasika nekuparara, uku Russia ichinyura murudzi rwechiuto chemauto izvo USSR neUnited States zvakatosangana nazvo muAfghanistan, uye idzo hondo dzichangoburwa dzeUS dzakashanduka kuita. 

MuUkraine, zvinyorwa zvekutanga zvechibvumirano cherunyararo zvatovepo. Ndiwo: kubviswa kwemauto eRussia; Kusarerekera kweUkraine pakati peNATO neRussia; kuzvisarudzira vose Ukrainians (kusanganisira muCrimea uye Donbas); uye chibvumirano chekuchengetedzwa kwenharaunda chinochengetedza munhu wese uye chinodzivirira hondo itsva. 

Mativi ese ari maviri ari kurwira kusimbisa ruoko rwavo muchibvumirano chekupedzisira pamwe nemitsetse iyoyo. Saka vangani vanhu vanofanirwa kufa izvo zvese zvisati zvagadziriswa patafura yekutaurirana panzvimbo pepamusoro pemarara emataundi nemaguta eUkraine?

Chechipiri, vayananisi vanofanira kuva vasina rusarura uye vanovimbwa nemativi ose.

United States yakatonga basa remurevereri mudambudziko reIsrael-Palestine kwemakumi emakore, kunyangwe ichidzokera pachena uye. maoko rimwe divi uye kushungurudzwa veto yayo yeUN kudzivirira kuita kwepasirese. Uyu wanga uri muenzaniso wakajeka wehondo isingaperi.  

Turkey kusvika parizvino yaita semurevereri mukuru pakati peRussia neUkraine, asi inhengo yeNATO yakapa. drones, zvombo uye kudzidziswa zvechiuto kuUkraine. Mativi ese ari maviri akagamuchira kuyananisira kweTurkey, asi Turkey ingave yakatendeseka broker here? 

UN inogona kuita basa riri pamutemo, sezvairi kuita muYemen, uko mativi maviri ari pakupedzisira kuchengeta kupera kwemwedzi miviri. Asi kunyangwe nekuedza kukuru kweUN, zvatora makore kutaurirana uku kumbomira kwehondo.    

Chechitatu, chibvumirano chinofanira kugadzirisa zvinonyanya kunetsa mapato ese ari muhondo.

Muna 2014, iyo US-yakatsigirwa coup uye iyo kuuraya yevaratidziri vekurwisa kupidigura hurumende muOdessa zvakakonzera kuziviswa kwekusununguka neDonetsk neLuhansk People's Republics. Chibvumirano chekutanga cheMinsk Protocol munaGunyana 2014 chakatadza kupedza hondo yevagari vekuEastern Ukraine. Musiyano wakakosha mu Minsk II chibvumirano muna Kukadzi 2015 chaive chekuti DPR neLPR vamiriri vakaverengerwa munhaurirano, uye yakabudirira kupedzisa kurwa kwakaipisisa uye kudzivirira kubuda kukuru kwehondo kwemakore manomwe.

Kune rimwe bato rakanga risipo zvikuru kubva munhaurirano muBelarus neTurkey, vanhu vanoumba hafu yevanhu veRussia neUkraine: vakadzi venyika mbiri idzi. Nepo vamwe vavo vari kurwa, vamwe vazhinji vanogona kutaura sevanhu vakakuvadzwa, vanhu vakakuvara uye vapoteri kubva muhondo yakasimudzwa zvakanyanya nevarume. Manzwi evakadzi patafura aizova chiyeuchidzo chenguva dzose chemitengo yevanhu yehondo uye hupenyu hwevakadzi uye vana izvo zviri mungozi.    

Kunyange kana rimwe divi rikakunda muhondo, zvichemo zvevakakundwa uye nyaya dzisina kugadziriswa dzezvematongerwo enyika nehurongwa zvinowanzodyara mhodzi dzekuputika kutsva kwehondo mune ramangwana. Sezvakataurwa naBenjamin Jensen weCSIS, zvishuwo zvevezvematongerwo enyika veUS uye vekuMadokero kuranga uye kuwana hunyanzvi. Advantage pamusoro peRussia haifanirwe kubvumidzwa kudzivirira chisungo chakazara chinogadzirisa zvinonetsa mativi ese uye chinovimbisa rugare rusingaperi.     

Chechina, panofanira kuva nenhanho-ne-nhanho nzira yerunyararo yakagadzikana uye inogara iyo mativi ese akazvipira kwairi.

The Minsk II chibvumirano chakakonzera kumisa kurwa uye kwakagadzira nzira yekupedza zvematongerwo enyika. Asi hurumende yeUkraine neparamende, pasi peVaPresident Poroshenko uyezve Zelensky, vakatadza kutora matanho anotevera akabvumiranwa naPoroshenko muMinsk muna 2015: kupasisa mitemo uye shanduko yebumbiro kubvumidza sarudzo dzakazvimiririra, dzakatariswa pasi rose muDPR neLPR, uye kuvapa kuzvitonga mukati federalized Ukrainian mamiriro.

Zvino kuti kukundikana uku kwaita kuti kuRussia kucherechedzwe rusununguko rweDPR neLPR, chibvumirano chitsva cherunyararo chinofanira kudzokorora uye kugadzirisa chimiro chavo, uye cheCrimea, nenzira iyo mativi ese achazvipira kwairi, kungave kuri kuburikidza nekuzvimiririra kwakavimbiswa mu. Minsk II kana yepamutemo, inozivikanwa rusununguko kubva kuUkraine. 

Chinhu chinonamira munhaurirano dzerunyararo muTurkey kwaive kudiwa kweUkraine kwevimbiso yakasimba yekuona kuti Russia haizoipindire zvakare. UN Charter inodzivirira zviri pamutemo nyika dzese kubva kumhirizhonga yepasi rose, asi yakundikana kakawanda kuita izvi apo munhu anorwisa, kazhinji United States, ichishandisa Security Council veto. Saka Ukraine isina kwayakarerekera ingavimbiswa sei kuti ichave yakachengeteka kubva pakurwiswa mune ramangwana? Uye mativi ose anogona sei kuva nechokwadi chokuti mamwe achanamatira kuchibvumirano panguva ino?

Chechishanu, masimba ekunze haafanire kukanganisa nhaurirano kana kuitwa kwechibvumirano cherunyararo.

Kunyangwe United States nevadyidzani vayo veNATO vasiri mapato anorwa muUkraine, basa ravo mukumutsa dambudziko iri kuburikidza nekuwedzera kweNATO uye coup ya2014, ndokutsigira kusiya Kyiv chibvumirano cheMinsk II uye kufashama kweUkraine nezvombo, kuvaita "nzou. muimba” iyo ichaita mumvuri murefu pamusoro petafura yekurukurirano, chero kupi zvako.

Muna Kubvumbi 2012, aimbove Munyori Mukuru weUN, Kofi Annan, akagadzira hurongwa hwemapoinzi matanhatu hwekumisa hondo uye shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika muSyria inotariswa neUN. Asi panguva chaiyo iyo chirongwa chaAnan chakatanga kushanda uye vataridzi vekumisa pfuti veUN vanga varipo, United States, NATO nemubatanidzwa wavo wema monarchist echiArab vakaita misangano mitatu ye “Shamwari dzeSyria”, kwavakavimbisa rubatsiro rusingaperi rwemari nemauto kuAl. Vapanduki veQaeda vavaitsigira kuti vapidigura hurumende yeSyria. Izvi akakurudzirwa vapanduki vacho kufuratira kumisa kurwa, uye zvakatungamira kune rimwe gumi rehondo revanhu veSyria. 

Hunhu husina kusimba hwenhaurirano dzerunyararo pamusoro peUkraine hunoita kuti kubudirira kuve panjodzi huru kune simba rakadai rekunze. IUnited States yakatsigira Ukraine mukutarisana nehondo yevagari vemo muDonbas panzvimbo yekutsigira mazwi echibvumirano cheMinsk II, uye izvi zvakakonzera hondo neRussia. Iye zvino Gurukota rezvekunze reTurkey, Mevlut Cavosoglu, ataura CNN Turk idzo nhengo dzeNATO dzisina kudomwa mazita "dzinoda kuti hondo ienderere mberi," kuitira kuti irambe ichinetesa Russia.

mhedziso  

Mabatiro anoita United States nevamiriri vayo veNATO izvozvi uye mumwedzi iri kuuya ichave yakakosha mukuona kuti Ukraine inoparadzwa nemakore ehondo, seAfghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria neYemen, kana kuti hondo iyi inopera nekukurumidza diplomatic process inounza rugare, chengetedzo uye kugadzikana kune vanhu veRussia, Ukraine nevavakidzani vavo.

Kana United States ichida kubatsira kudzoreredza runyararo muUkraine, inofanirwa kutsigira nhaurirano dzerunyararo, uye kujekesera mubatsiri wayo, Ukraine, kuti ichatsigira chero zvibvumirano zvinotendwa nevatauri veUkraine kuti zvakakosha kuti vatsigire chibvumirano cherunyararo neRussia. 

Chero muyananisi Russia neUkraine vanobvuma kushanda naye kuyedza kugadzirisa dambudziko iri, United States inofanirwa kupa hurongwa hwekudyidzana nerutsigiro rwayo ruzere, rusina kuchengetedzwa, paruzhinji uye kuseri kwemasuo akavharwa. Inofanirawo kuona kuti zviito zvayo hazvikanganise nzira yerunyararo muUkraine sezvavakaita chirongwa chaAnan muSyria muna 2012. 

Rimwe rematanho akanyanya kunetsa angatore vatungamiriri veUS neNATO kupa kukurudzira kuRussia kuti ibvumirane nerunyararo rwakurukurwa kuzvipira kubvisa zvirango kana Russia ikaita chibvumirano chekubvisa. Pasina kuzvipira kwakadaro, zvirango zvinokurumidza kurasikirwa nehunhu kana kukosha kwekuita sesimba pamusoro peRussia, uye inongove nzira yekupokana yekuranga vanhu vayo, uye vachipokana. varombo kwose kwose vasingachakwanisi kuwana zvokudya zvokudyisa mhuri dzavo. Sezvo ari de facto mutungamiri weNATO mubatanidzwa wemauto, chinzvimbo cheUS pamubvunzo uyu chichave chakakosha. 

Saka sarudzo dzezvematongerwo enyika neUnited States dzichava nechakaipa chekuti kuchave nerunyararo muUkraine munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kana hondo yakareba uye ine ropa. Muedzo wevagadziri vemitemo veUS, uye kune vekuAmerica vane hanya nevanhu veUkraine, unofanirwa kunge uri wekubvunza kuti ndezvipi zveizvi sarudzo sarudzo dzeUS dzinogona kutungamira.

Nicolas JS Davies mutori wenhau akazvimirira, muongorori neCODEPINK uye munyori we Ropa pamaoko edu: IAmerican Invasion uye Kuparadza kweIraq.