NaRobert Alvarez, Gunyana 11, 2017, Bulletin yeAtomic Masayendisiti.
Yakadzorerwa Zvita 1, 2017
Yasvika nguva yekuwana nzira yekupedza iyo 67-gore-refu hondo yeKorea. Sezvo kutyisidzira kwemakakatanwa emauto kuchikura, veruzhinji veAmerica havazive nezve chokwadi chinokatyamadza nezvehondo yeAmerica yakarebesa isina kugadziriswa uye imwe yenyika dzakateura ropa. Chibvumirano che1953 chemaoko chakagadziriswa neMutungamiri Eisenhower - kumisa makore matatu "kuita kwechiuto" kwakaguma nemamirioni maviri kusvika kumamirioni mana kufa kwemauto uye kwevanhu - yakakanganwika kwenguva refu. Vakarohwa nevatungamiriri vemauto veNorth Korea, United States, South Korea, uye mubatanidzwa wavo weUnited Nations kumisa kurwa, ruoko rwemauto haruna kuzoteverwa nechibvumirano cherunyararo chekumisa kupokana uku kweCold War yekutanga.
Mumwe mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende akandirangaridza nezvenyaya iyi isina kugadzikana ndisati ndaenda kunzvimbo yeYoungbyon yenyukireya munaNovember 1994 kunobatsira kuchengetedza plutonium-inotakura mafuta ekushandisa sechikamu cheChibvumirano Chekubvumirana pakati peUnited States neNorth Korea. Ini ndanga ndafunga kuti titore nzvimbo dzinopisa moto kunzvimbo yakachengetwa mafuta yekuchengetera nzvimbo, kuti ipe kudziya kwevaKorea vekuKorea vachange vachishanda munguva yechando kuti vaise matanda emafuta anoshandiswa mumidziyo, kwavanogona kuve pasi peInternational Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA) kuchengetedza. Mukuru weDhipatimendi reHurumende akatsamwa. Kunyangwe makore makumi mana mushure mekuguma kwehondo, isu takarambidzwa kupa chero nyaradzo kumuvengi, zvisinei nekutonhora kunotyisa kunovhiringidza yavo-uye neyedu-basa.
Maitiro Akabvumiranwa Akakoromoka sei. Muchirimo uye zhizha ra1994, United States yakanga iri munzira yekurovera neNorth Korea pamusoro pekuyedza kwayo kugadzira plutonium yekumisa zvombo zvenyukireya. Kutenda zvikuru muchidimbu chemubatanidzwa weaimbove Mutungamiri Jimmy Carter, uyo akasangana vakatarisana naKim Il Sung, muvambi weDemocratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), nyika yakabuda pamucheto. Kunze kwekuedza uku kwakaburitsa zvirevo zveAgreed Framework, yakasainwa musi waGumiguru 12, 1994. Inoramba iri chibvumirano chehurumende nehurumende chakamboitwa pakati peUnited States neNorth Korea.
Iyo Yakatenderanwa Sisitimu yaive chibvumirano chekudyidzana chisina kuwedzera chakavhura musuwo kumagumo ehondo yeKorea. North Korea yakabvuma kusimbisa chirongwa chayo chekugadzira plutonium mukutsinhana nemafuta anorema, kudyidzana kwezvehupfumi, uye kuvakwa kwemaviri emagetsi emagetsi emagetsi emagetsi emazuva ano. Pakupedzisira, zvivakwa zvenyukireya zveNorth Korea zvaifanira kubviswa uye mafuta akashandurwa akabviswa munyika. South Korea yakaita chinzvimbo chakakosha pakubatsira kugadzirira kuvaka kweaya maviri maactor. Munguva yetemu yechipiri muhofisi, iyo Clinton manejimendi yakanga ichienda kunogadzira hukama hwakajairika neNorth. Mutungamiri wezvematongerwo enyika, Wendy Sherman akarondedzera chibvumirano neNorth Korea kubvisa zvombo zvaro zvepakati nepakati-refu seku "kuswedera pedyo" nhaurirano dzisati dzaitwa nesarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika ya2000.
Asi hwaro hwakapikiswa zvakaomarara nevaRepublican vazhinji, uye GOP payakatora kutonga kweCongress muna 1995, yakakanda zvivhariso munzira, zvichikanganisa mafuta ekufambisa mafuta kuNorth Korea nekuchengetedzwa kwezvinhu zvine plutonium zviripo. Mushure mekunge George W. Bush asarudzwa semutungamiriri wenyika, kuedza kwaClinton kutonga kwakatsiviwa nehurongwa hwakajeka hwekuchinja hutongi. Muhurukuro yake yeState of the Union muna Ndira 2002, Bush akazivisa North Korea nhengo yesarudzo ye "axis yezvakaipa." MunaGunyana, Bush akataura zvakajeka North Korea mune yenyika chengetedzo mutemo iyo inodaidzira kwekutanga kurwisa kurwisa nyika dzichigadzira zvombo zvekuparadza kwakawanda.
Izvi zvakagadzira danho remusangano wenyika mbiri muna Gumiguru 2002, panguva iyo Munyori Munyori weHurumende, James Kelly, akarayira kuti North Korea imise chirongwa che "zvakavanzika" chekuvandudza uranium kana kutarisana nemhedzisiro. Kunyangwe hazvo Bush Administration ichisimbisa chirongwa chekufumisa ichi chisina kuburitswa, chaive ruzivo rweveruzhinji-muCongress nemumapepanhau enhau - na1999.North Korea yakanga yateedzera zvakanyanya Chibvumirano cheKubvumirana, ichitonhora kugadzirwa kweplutonium kwemakore masere. Zvidziviriro pamusoro pekuvandudza uranium zvakange zvadzoserwa mukati chibvumirano kudzamara kufambira mberi kwakakwana kwaitwa mukuvhenekerwa kwemagetsi emagetsi; asi kana kunonoka ikoko kukaonekwa sekune njodzi, chibvumirano chingadai chakagadziriswa. Nguva pfupi mushure mekupedzisira kwaSullivan, North Korea yakagumisa chirongwa chekuchengetedza mafuta enyukireya ayo yatanga kushandisa ndokutanga kupatsanura plutonium nekugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya - ichikonzera dambudziko rakazara, sekutonga kwaBush kwainge kwakagadzirira kupinda muIraq.
Mukupedzisira, kuedza kwehutongi hwaBush kugadzirisa kusanzwisisika kwechirongwa chenyukireya cheNorth Korea - aka Six-Party Talks - kwakakundikana, zvikuru nekuda kwekutsigira kwakasimba kweUnited States shanduko yehutongi muNorth Korea uye ichiramba "zvese kana pasina" zvinoda kubviswa kwakazara kwechirongwa chenyukireya kuchamhembe pasati paitwa hurukuro dzakakomba. Zvakare, nesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika yeUS dzave pedyo, maNorth Koreans vaifanirwa kunge vakayeuka kuti ipaki yakakwenenzverwa nechisimba sei paAgreed Framework mushure mesarudzo dza2000.
Panguva yakazotora mutungamiri wenyika, VaObama, North Korea yakanga yave munzira yekuva nyika yezvombo zvenyukireya uye yakanga yave kusvika pachikumbaridzo chekuyedza makomboti epasi rose. Ichirondedzerwa se "kushivirira zvine hungwaru," bumbiro raObama raive rakanyanya kukanganiswa nekumhanyisa kwenzvimbo yenyukireya uye missile kuvandudza, kunyanya saKim Jong-un, muzukuru wemuvambi, akakwira pasimba. Pasi pehutongi hwaObama, zvirango zvehupfumi uye nekuwedzera-kwenguva yakareba kwemajoini kurovedza zvakasangana nekuwedzera kudenha kweNorth Korea. Zvino, pasi pehutongi hwaTrump, mauto akabatanidzwa eUnited States, South Korea neJapan - aida kuratidzira "moto nehasha" zvinogona kuparadza hutongi hweDPRK - zvinoita kunge zvakangomhanyisa danho rakatsikwa neNorth Korea. kusimudzira kuyerwa kwayo kwemashure-refu uye kuputika kwezvombo zvine simba kwazvo zvenyukireya.
Kutarisana nenyika yezvombo zvenyukireya nyika yeNorth Korea. Mbeu dzenyukireya-yakashongedzerwa DPRK yakasimwa apo United States yakagura 1953 Armistice Chibvumirano. Kutanga muna 1957, iyo US yakatyora kwakakosha chibvumirano (ndima 13d), iyo yairambidza kuunzwa kwezvombo zvinoparadza zvakanyanya kuKorea peninsula, na pakupedzisira kuendesa zviuru zvehunyanzvi zvombo zvenyukireya muSouth Korea, kusanganisira atomic artillery shells, missile-yakatanga warheads uye giravhiti mabhomba, atomic "bazooka" kutenderera uye kuputsa munitions (20 kiloton "back-pack" nukes). Mu1991, ipapo-Mutungamiri George HW Bush vakabvisa vese hunyanzvi nukes. Mumakore makumi matanhatu nemapfumbamwe akapindira, zvakadaro, United States yakaburitsa nhangemutange yezvombo zvenyukireya-pakati pemapazi eayo mauto paPeninsula yeKorea! Uku kukura kukuru kwenyukireya muSouth kwakapa kukurudzira kukuru kuNorth Korea kuendesa mberi-kuendesa rakakura remauto ehondo anogona kuparadza Seoul.
Zvino, vamwe vatungamiriri vemauto vekuSouth Korea vari kudaidzira kuti zvombo zvenyukireya zveUS zviitwe zvekare munyika, izvo zvaisazoita chinhu asi kuwedzera dambudziko rekubata neNyukireya North Korea. Kuvapo kwezvombo zvenyukireya zveUS hazvina kudzora kuwedzera kwechisimba neNorth Korea muma1960 nema1970, nguva inozivikanwa se “Hondo yechipiri yeKorea,” panguva yakaurayiwa varwi vanopfuura chiuru vekuSouth Korea uye makumi manomwe nemashanu vekuAmerica Pakati pezvimwe zviito, mauto eNorth Korea akarwisa ndokubata Pueblo, ngarava yeU.S. Naval intelligence, muna 1,000, ichiuraya nhengo yevashandi nekutapa vamwe makumi masere nevaviri. Ngarava haina kuzombodzoswa.
North Korea yakagara ichimanikidza hurukuro dzekudyidzana idzo dzaizotungamira kuchisungo chisina hukasha neUnited States. Hurumende yeUS yakagara ichiramba zvikumbiro zvayo zvechibvumirano cherunyararo nekuti vanoonekwa semanomano akagadzirirwa kudzora kuvepo kwemauto eUS muSouth Korea, zvichibvumira kunyanyisa kweNorth. IWashington Post yaJackson Diehl yakaratidza mafungiro aya nguva pfupi yadarika, ichisimbisa izvozvo North Korea haina hanya nesarudzo ine rugare. Ndichiri kutaura chirevo chakaitwa neNorth Korea Mutevedzeri weMumiriri weUN Kim In Ryong kuti nyika yake "haizomboisa kuzvidzivirira kwenyukireya patafura yekutaurirana," Diehl akasiya zvakanaka Ryong's inokosha caveat: "Chero bedzi US ichiri kuityisidzira."
Kwemakore gumi nemashanu apfuura, kurovedza kwemauto mukugadzirira hondo neNorth Korea kwakawedzera mukureba uye mukureba. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, Trevor Noah, muridzi weComedy Central zvakanyanya kutariswa The Daily Show, akabvunza Christopher Hill, mukuru wezvekukurukurirana muU.S.nehurukuro nhanhatu dzeMatongerwo Enyika mukati memakore aGeorge W. Bush, nezve zviitwa zvemauto; Chikomo chakazivisa izvozvo "Hatina kumbofunga kurwisa" Mawodzanyemba Koriya. Chikomo chaive chisina kuziviswa kana kusanganisa. Iyo Washington Post yakataura kuti kurovedza kwemauto muna Kurume 2016 kwaive pamusoro pechirongwa, chakabvumiranwa neUnited States neSouth Korea, icho chaisanganisira "mauto ekutanga" uye "'kupamba varwi' nemauto akanangana nehutungamiriri hweNorth." Mu Washington Post chinyorwa, nyanzvi yeuto reUnited States haina kupokana nekuvapo kwechirongwa asi yakati ine mukana wakaderera kwazvo wekuitwa.
Kunyangwe paine mukana wekuti dzizadzikiswe, aya epagore ekuronga nguva yekurovedza muviri anobatsira kusimudzira uye pamwe kutosimbisa kumanikidza kwehutsinye nehutungamiriri hweNorth Korea hwevanhu vayo, vanogara mukutya nguva dzose kwehondo iri pedyo. Munguva yekushanya kwedu kuNorth Korea, takacherekedza mafashamo akagurisira vagari vawo nezviyeuchidzo nezvekuuraya kwakakonzerwa nepalm iyo ndege dzeUS dzakadonha munguva yehondo. Pakazosvika 1953, bhomba reUS rakaparadza dzinenge zvivakwa zvese muNorth Korea. Dean Rusk, Secretary of State panguva yeKennedy naJohnson manejimendi, akataura makore akati kuti gare gare kuti mabhomba akadonhedzwa pane "zvese zvaifamba muNorth Korea, zvidhina zvese zvakamira pamusoro peimwe." Kwemakore, hutongi hweNorth Korea hwakagadzira sisitimu hombe yematanho epasi pevhu anoshandiswa mukudzidzira zvidziviriro zveveruzhinji.
Zvichida kunonoka kutarisira iyo DPRK kurega zvombo zvenyukireya. Bhiriji iri rakaparadzwa apo Chibvumirano cheKubvumirana chakaraswa mukutsvaga kwakakundikana kwekuchinja hutongi, chiitiko icho chisina kungopa kurudziro ine simba asi zvakare yakawanda nguva yekuti DPRK iunganidze nhumbi yenyukireya. Secretary of State Tillerson nguva pfupi yadarika akataura kuti "hatitsvage shanduko yehutongi, hatitsvage kupunzika kwehutongi." Nehurombo, Tillerson akanyudzwa kunze nekufukidzwa kwemaTweets anorwa neMutungamiriri Trump uye saber-rattling neyaimbova mauto nemauto.
Mukupedzisira, kugadzikana murunyararo kuNorth Korea mamiriro enyukireya kunosanganisira kutaurirana kwakananga nemasaini ekutenda kwakanaka nemativi ese, sekuderedza kana kumisa kurovedza kwemauto neUnited States, South Korea, neJapan, pamwe nekudzokedzana. moratorium pachombo chenyukireya uye kuongororwa kweye ballistic missile neDPRK. Matanho akadaro anounza kupokana kukuru kubva kuvakuru vezvekudzivirira veUS vanotenda kuti simba remauto uye masanctions ndiyo chete nzira dzekumisidzana dzichashanda kurwisa hutongi hweNorth Korea Asi iyo Yakatenderanwa Sisitimu uye kupunzika kwayo kunopa chidzidzo chakakosha nezve misungo yekutsvaga shanduko yehutongi. Zvino, chibvumirano chekudzora maoko enyukireya inogona kunge iri yega nzira yekuunza chitsauko chakareba cheCold War kusvika parunyararo. Zvakaoma kunyengetedza mumwe munhu kuti aite chibvumirano, kana aine chokwadi kuti urikuronga kumuuraya, zvisinei nezvaanoita.
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Nyanzvi yepamusoro kuInstitute for Policy Study, Robert Alvarez akashanda semupi wezano wezano kumunyori weDhipatimendi reMagetsi uye mutevedzeri wemunyori wezvekuchengetedzwa kwenyika uye nharaunda kubva muna 1993 kusvika 1999. Munguva iyi, akatungamira zvikwata muNorth Korea kutanga kutonga. yezvombo zvenyukireya. Akarongawo kuronga kwemagetsi enyukireya muDhipatimendi reMagetsi uye akatanga chirongwa chedhipatimendi chekutanga chekugadzirisa zvinhu. Asati ajoina Dhipatimendi reMagetsi, Alvarez akashanda kwemakore mashanu semuongorori mukuru weUS Senate Komiti yeHurumende, inotungamirwa naSen.John Glenn, uye semumwe wevashandi veSeneti vepachirongwa cheUS zvombo zvenyukireya. Muna 1975, Alvarez akabatsira kuwana nekutungamira iyo Environmental Policy Institute, inoremekedzwa yenyika inofarira veruzhinji. Akabatsirawo kuronga mutongo wakabudirira akamiririra mhuri yaKaren Silkwood, mushandi wenyukireya uye nhengo yemubatanidzwa anoshanda akaurayiwa mumamiriro ezvinhu asinganzwisisike muna 1974. Alvarez akaburitsa zvinyorwa mu sainzi, ivo Bulletin yeAtomic Scientists, Technology Review, uye The Washington Post. Akave akaonekwa mumapurogiramu eterevhizheni akadai se NOVA uye 60 Minutes.
