Kupedza Nyukliya Zvombo Zvisati Zvisatipedza

NeEd O'Rourke

Musi waGunyana 26, 1983, nyika yaive sarudzo yemunhu mumwe kure nehondo yenyukireya. Mukuru wemauto aifanirwa kuita insubordination kuti amise otomatiki maitiro. Makakatanwa aive akakwirira, masvondo matatu mauto eSoviet apfura ndege yevatakuri, Korea Air Lines ndege 007, ichiuraya vese vafambi 269. Mutungamiri Reagan akadana Soviet Union "humambo hwehuipi."

Mutungamiri Reagan akakurudzira rudzi rwehondo uye akanga achitsvaka Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars).

NATO yakanga ichitanga basa rechiuto Able Archer 83 iyo yakanyatsorondedzerwa zvekugadzirisa kwekutanga. VaKGB vakafunga kuti basa racho rinogona kugadzirirwa chinhu chaicho.

Musi waSeptember 26, 1983, Air Defense Lieutenant Coronel Stanislav Petrov aive mukuru wezvebasa kuSoviet air defense command centre. Mabasa ake aisanganisira kuongorora satellite yekutanga yambiro system uye kuzivisa vakuru vake paakaona kurwisa kwemakomboni kuzorwa neSoviet Union.

Nguva pfupi yapfuura pakati pehusiku, makomputa airatidza kuti missile yepakati penyika yakaparurwa kubva kuUS ndokunanga kuSoviet Union. Petrov akafunga ichi kunge chikanganiso chemakomputa sezvo chero ratidziro yekutanga yaizosanganisira mazana emisvo, kwete imwe chete. Maakaunzi anosiyana kana akabata vakuru vake. Gare gare, makomputa akaonesa mamwe makomba mana akatangwa kubva kuUS.

Dai akaudza vakuru vake, zvinokwanisika kuti vakuru vacho vangadai vakaraira kuvhurwa kukuru kuUS. Izvo zvaigoneka zvakare, kuti sekufunga kwaBoris Yeltsin mumamiriro akafanana, kukwira zvinhu kunze kusvikira pave neuchapupu hwakasimba kuratidza zviri kuitika.

Iyo komputa system yakanga isiri kushanda. Ikoko kwaive nekuenzanirana kwechiedza chezuva pane akakwirira-makore uye ma satellite eMolniya anotenderera. Nyanzvi dzakagadzirisa chikanganiso ichi nekuyambutsa-satellite geostationary.

Vakuru veSoviet vakanga vari mubishi, pane imwe nguva vachimurumbidza uye nekumutsiura. Mune chero hurongwa, kunyanya iyo yeSoviet, unotanga kupa mubairo kuvanhu nekusateerera mirairo? Akapihwa chinzvimbo chisinganyanye kunetseka, akatora nguva yekurega basa uye akarwara nekutya.

Pane kumwe kuvhiringidzika pane zvakaitika musi waGunyana 23, 1983. Ini kunzwa kwangu ndekwekuti haana kuzivisa vakuru vake. Zvikasadaro, nei achigashira chinzvimbo chisina kusimba uye oenda kunokurumidza kurhoja?

Hapana kana rimwe chete rezvehungwaru raive neruzivo rwekuti nyika yainge yaswedera sei kuhondo yenyukireya. Paingova muma1990 apo Coronel General Yury Votintsev, aimbove mukuru weSoviet Air Defense Missile Defense Unit, akaburitsa mamemo ake ayo nyika yakadzidza nezve chiitiko ichi.

Mumwe anodedera kufunga izvo zvaizoitika dai Boris Yeltsin anga ari wekuraira uye akadhakwa. Mutungamiri weUS anganzwa kumanikidzwa kwakasiyana kwekutanga kupfura uye kupindura mibvunzo gare gare, sekunge paizove nemunhu mupenyu kubvunza. Mutungamiriri Richard Nixon paakange ave kusvika kumagumo panguva yekuferefetwa kweWatergate, Al Haig akapa rairo kuDhipatimendi reDziviriro kuti isatanga danho renyukireya pakuraira kwaRichard Nixon kunze kwekunge iye (Al Haig) abvumidza hurongwa. Maumbirwo ezvombo zvenyukireya anoita kuti hupenyu pasi rino huve panjodzi. Aimbova Secretary wezvekudzivirira Robert McNamera akanzwa kuti vanhu vakaita rombo rakanaka pane kungwara nezvombo zvenyukireya.

Hondo yenyukireya ichaunza kusuwa kusati kwamboitika uye kufa kwevanhu vese vapenyu pasi redu risina kusimba. Shanduko yakakosha yenyukireya pakati peUS neRussia yaizoisa matani mamirioni makumi mashanu kusvika zana nemakumi mashanu eutsi mu stratosphere, ichivhara mwenje wezuva mukurova pasi pano kwemakore mazhinji. Dzimwe ongororo dzinoratidza kuti zana reHiroshima-size zvombo zvenyukireya zvinoputika muIndia nemaguta ePakistan zvinogona kuburitsa utsi hwakaringana kukonzera njodzi yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.

Yakajairika warheadhead ine 2 megaton goho kana mamirioni maviri ematani eTNT, simba rese rinoputika rakagadzirwa mukati meHondo Yenyika II iyo yaizoregedzwa mumasekondi mashoma munzvimbo inokwana mamaira makumi matatu kusvika makumi mana kuyambuka. Iko kupisa kunopisa kunosvika mamirioni akati wandei madigiri Celsius, nezve izvo zvinowanikwa panzvimbo yezuva. Moto mukuru unoburitsa kupisa kunouraya uye mwenje kutanga moto mumativi ese. Zviuru zvemoto moto waikurumidza kugadzira moto mumwe kana dutu remoto, unovhara mazana kana pamwe zviuru zvemakiromita mamaira.

Sezvo dutu remoto richipisa guta, simba rese rinogadzirwa rinenge rakapetwa ka1,000 zvakapetwa pane rakaburitswa nekuputika kwekutanga. Dutu remoto rinoburitsa hutsi hunokachidza, hutsi hunopisa mwaranzi uye guruva kuuraya chero munhu mupenyu ari kusvika. Inenge zuva, utsi hwemoto hunobva kuchinzvimbo chenyukireya hwaizosvika kune stratosphere uye ichivhara zuva rakawanda richirova pasi, kuparadza ozone layer uye mumazuva mashoma ichideredza avhareji tembiricha yepasi rose kudzikira. Iyo tembiricha yeI Ice Age yaizosara kwemakore akati wandei.

Vatungamiriri vane simba kwazvo uye vapfumi vaigona kufungidzira kwechinguva mumatumba akashongedzerwa. Ndine pfungwa yekuti pekugara vagari vangave psychotic kwenguva refu zvinhu zvisati zvapera uye vobva vatarisana. Nikita Khrushchev akacherekedza mumashure mehondo yenyukireya, kuti vapenyu vangachiva vakafa. Huswa nemapete zvinofanirwa kurarama muhondo yenyukireya asi ndinofunga masayendisiti akaita izvi fungidziro vasati vatora nguva yechando chenyukireya zvakanyanya. Ini ndinonzwa kuti mapete nehuswa zvinobatana nevamwe vese nekukurumidza. Hakuzovi nevanopona.

Kutaura chokwadi, ndinofanirwa kuratidza kuti mamwe masayendisiti anotora yangu yenyukireya mamiriro ezvinhu echando zvakanyanya kukunda pane zvavacharatidza. Vamwe vanofunga kuti zvingaite kudzikisira kana kuva nehondo yenyukireya, kana yatanga. Carl Sagan anoti uku kufungidzira. Kana zvombo zvichirohwa, pachave nekutadza kutaurirana kana kudonha, kusagadziriswa, kutya, kunzwa kwekutsiva, nguva yakamanikidzwa yekuita zvisarudzo uye mutoro wepfungwa shamwari zhinji uye nhengo dzemhuri vakafa. Pachave pasina chinogadziriswa. Coronel General Yury Votintsev yakaratidza, zvirinani muna 1983, Soviet Union yaive nemhinduro imwe chete, kuburitswa kukuru kwemakomboti. Pakanga pasina chirongwa chakarongwa chekupedza kudzidza.

Nei United States neSoviet Union vakavaka zvombo zvenyukireya mumakumi ezviuru kudivi rega? Sekureva kweNational Resources Defense Council's Nuclear Weapons Databook Project, zvombo zvenyukireya zveUnited States zvakakwira kusvika pa32,193 muna 1966. Yakanga iri nguva ino nguva apo zvombo zvepasirese zvakaenzana nematani gumi eTNT kumurume wese, mukadzi nemwana pasi pano. . Winston Churchill akapokana nekuwandisa kwakadai achiti iyo poindi yaive yekuona kuti marara angakwira sei.

Nei vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika nevemauto vaizoramba vachigadzira, kuyedza nekuvandudza zvombo izvi zviverengero zvikuru? Kune vazhinji, zvombo zvenyukireya zvaingova zvombo zvakare, zvine simba. Paive pasina zano nezve kuwandisa. Kungofanana nenyika ine matangi mazhinji, ndege, masoja nengarava zvakave nebhenefiti, nyika ine zvombo zvenyukireya zvakanyanya yakava nemukana mukuru wekukunda. Kune zvombo zvakajairika, paive nemukana wekudzivirira kuuraya vanhuwo zvavo. Nezvombo zvenyukireya, pakanga pasina. Mauto akashora panguva yechando chenyukireya apo Carl Sagan nemamwe masayendisiti vakatanga kupa mukana mukana uyu.

Iko kutyaira kwaive kudzivisa kunonzi Mutual Assured Kuparadza (MAD) uye kupenga kwaive. Dai US neSoviet Union vaine zvombo zvakakwana, zvine hungwaru zvakapararira munzvimbo dzakaomarara kana mumakwara epasi pegungwa, divi rega rega raizokwanisa kuburitsa misoro yakakwana yekukuvadza zvisingatenderwi kubato rairwisa. Uku kwaive kuenzana kwekutya izvo zvaireva kuti hapana mukuru angatanga hondo akazvimiririra kubva kune zvematongerwo enyika, kwaisazove nemasaini ekunyepa mumakomputa kana radar skrini, kuti vezvematongerwo enyika nevemauto vanogara vari vanhu vane pfungwa uye kuti hondo yenyukireya inogona kuve kurova kwekutanga. Izvi zvinofuratira mutemo wakakurumbira waMurphy: “Hapana chinhu chakareruka sekuratidzika kwachinoita. Zvese zvinotora nguva yakareba kupfuura zvaunotarisira. "Kana paine chingatadza kufamba zvakanaka, panguva yakanyanya kunaka."

Sangano reNuclear Age Peace rakagadzira chirevo cheSanta Barbara chichitsanangura matambudziko makuru ane simba rekugadzirisa nyukireya:

1. Simba rayo rokudzivirira ndechekugadzira njodzi. Kutyisidzira kana kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya hakuiti kudzivirirwa kurwisa.
2. Inotora vatungamiri vane manyanzvi, asi kunogona kunge kusina hanya kana vatungamiri vezvipo kune rumwe rutivi rwemakakatanwa.
3. Kutyisidzira kana kuuraya vanhu vazhinji nezvombo zvenyukireya hazvisi pamutemo uye imhosva. Inotyora mirawu yakakosha yepamutemo yemitemo yepamba neyekunze, ichityisidzira kuurawa kwevanhu vasina mhosva.
4. Iyo yakaipa kwazvo nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakafanana izvo zvisiri pamutemo: inopisidzira rufu rusina tsanangudzo uye rwakanyanya kusingaenzaniswi nekuparadzwa.
5. Inotsausa hupfumi hwevanhu nehupfumi hunodikanwa kwazvo kuzadzisa zvido zvevanhu pasi rose. Pasi rose, madhora zana emabhiriyoni anoshandiswa pagore pamauto enyukireya.
6. Haina maturo kune vasiri vekugadzirisa hurumende, avo vasingatongi nharaunda kana huwandu hwevanhu.
7. Icho chinotambudzwa ne cyber kurwisa, kuparadza, uye kukanganisa kwevanhu kana teknolojia, izvo zvingaguma nehondo yenyukireya.
8. Inoisa muenzaniso kune dzimwe nyika kuti iite zvombo zvenyukireya nokuda kwesimba ravo rekugadzirisa nyukireya.

Vamwe vakatanga kunetsekana kuti kugadzirwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya uye kuyedzwa kwaive kutyisidzira kubudiriro. Musi waApril 16, 1960, vanhu vanosvika 60,000 100,000 kusvika XNUMX XNUMX vakaungana paTrafalgar Square "kurambidza bhomba." Ichi chaive chiratidzo chikuru cheLondon kusvika panguva iyoyo muzana ramakumi maviri. Paive paine kunetseka kweiyo radioactive kusvibiswa mukudonha kubva kuenyukireya bvunzo.

Mune 1963, United States neSoviet Union vakabvumirana neChirongwa cheChitatu Chekuita Bhuku.

Chibvumirano cheNuclear Non-Proliferation Chibvumirano chakatanga kushanda musi waKurume 5, 1970. Kune vanhu zana nemakumi masere vakasainirana chibvumirano ichi nhasi. Ichinetsekana nenyika makumi maviri kusvika makumi mana dziine zvombo zvenyukireya panosvika 189, nyika dzine zvombo dzakavimbisa kudzibvisa kubvisa kurudziro yekuti nyika zhinji dzigadzire kuzvidzivirira. Nyika dzine tekinoroji yenyukireya dzakavimbisa kugovera tekinoroji matekinoroji uye zvigadzirwa nenyika dzakasaina kugadzira zvirongwa zvehurumende zvenyukireya.

Pakange pasina nguva mukati mechibvumirano chekubvisa zvombo. Inguva yakareba sei nyika dzichizorega kugadzira kana kuwana zvombo zvenyukireya apo dzimwe nyika dzichiri nadzo? Zvirokwazvo, iyo US nevabatsiri vayo vangadai vakangwarira naSaddam Hussein naMuammar Omar Gaddafi dai vaine zvombo zvenyukireya mudura ravo. Chidzidzo chedzimwe nyika ndechekuvaka nekukurumidza uye chinyararire kuti vasasundidzirwe kana kupindirwa.

Kwete mahipi ekuputa-hari chete asi vakuru vemauto vane chinzvimbo chepamusoro uye vezvematongerwo enyika vakurudzira kubvisa zvombo zvese zvenyukireya. Musi waZvita 5, 1996, makumi mashanu nevashanu vatungamiriri nevamiriri kubva kumarudzi gumi nemanomwe vakaburitsa Statement nemaGeneral uye Admirals eWorld Against Nuclear Weapons. Pazasi pane zvinyorwa:

"Isu, vashandi vehondo, avo vakapa upenyu hwedu kurudzi rwekuchengeteka kwenyika dzedu uye vanhu vedu, vanogutsikana kuti kuramba kuripo kwezvombo zvenyukireya muzvombo zvemasimba enyukireya, uye nguva dzose inotyisa yekuwana zvombo izvi nevamwe , inoita dambudziko kune rugare rwepasi rese nekuchengeteka uye kune kuchengeteka nekupona kwevanhu vatakatsaurirwa kudzivirira. "

"Kutenda kwedu kwakadzama kuti zvinotevera zvinodiwa nokukurumidza uye zvinofanira kuitwa zvino:

1. Chokutanga, zviripo uye zvakagadzirirwa zvigadziriswe zvezvombo zvenyukireya zvakanyanya kudhura uye zvino zvinofanira kunge zvakatemwa zvikuru;
2. Chechipiri, zvigadziriswe zvombo zvenyukireya zvinofanira kuve zvishoma nezvishoma uye zvinyatsoonekwa zvisingabvumirwi, uye kugadzirira kwavo kwakanyanya kuderedzwa zviri zviviri mune zvombo zvenyukireya nyika uye mune zvombo zvenyukireya zvinotaura;
3. Chechitatu, kwenguva yakareba mutemo wenyika yenyukireya inofanirwa kunge yakavakirwa pamutemo wekuenderera mberi, wakakwana uye asingagoneki kuparadzwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya. "

Rimwe boka renyika dzakawanda (rinozivikanwa seKomisheni yeCanberra) rakagadzwa nehurumende yeAustralia mu1997 yakapedzisa, "Chirevo chokuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvinogona kuchengetwa nekusingaperi uye hazvina kumboshandiswa- zvisina kuitika kana nechisarudzo-zvinokanganisa kutendeseka."

Mune iyo Wall Street Journal yaJanuary 4, 2007 yakaburitsa vaimbova maSecretaries eHurumende George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger uye aimbova sachigaro wemauto e Senate Sam Nunn vakatsigira "kuisa chinangwa chenyika isina zvombo zvenyukireya." Vakataura nezvekurudziro yaimbove purezidhendi wenyika, Ronald Reagan, yekuti zvombo zvenyukireya zvibviswe izvo zvaakaona "zvisina musoro zvachose, zvisina hunhu, zvisina zvazvinobatsira kunze kwekuuraya, pamwe zvichiparadza hupenyu pasi pano pamwe nebudiriro."

Nhanho yepakati yekubvisa iri kutora zvese zvombo zvenyukireya kubva pane bvudzi-rinokatyamadza mamiriro (akagadzirira kuvhura nemaminetsi gumi nemashanu chiziviso). Izvi zvinopa vatungamiriri vemauto nevezvematongerwo enyika nguva yekuongorora kutyisidzira kunoonekwa kana chaiko. Nyika yakaswedera padhuze nekuparadzwa kwenyukireya kwete chete musi waGunyana 15, 23 sezvakatsanangurwa kare uye zvakare muna Ndira 1983, 25 apo vesainzi veNorway nevamwe vekuAmerican vakaburitsa satellite yakagadzirirwa kuongorora Mwenje wekuchamhembe. Kunyange hazvo hurumende yeNorway yakanga yazivisa zviremera zveSoviet, havazi vese vakawana shoko. Kune varairidzi veRussia radaret, roketi yaive neprofita yakafanana neyaTitan missile inogona kupofomadza kuzvidzivirira kwemaRadar kweRussia nekuputika musoro wenyukireya mudenga repamusoro. MaRussia akavhura "nhabvu yenyukireya," bhegi rine makodhi epachivande anodikanwa kuti aronge kurwisa kwemakomba. Mutungamiri Yeltsin vakauya mukati memaminitsi matatu ekuraira kurwisa kwenyukireya kwaiita senge kuri kuzvidzivirira.

Kugadziriswa kwepasi rose kwekuisa zvombo zvese zvenyukireya paawa mina kana makumi maviri nemana maawa ekuzivisa zvaizopa nguva yekutarisa sarudzo, kuyedza iyo data uye kudzivirira hondo. Pakutanga, ino nguva yekuchenjera ingaite kunge yakanyanyisa Rangarira kuti chombo chinotakura ngarava dzepasi pemvura chine misoro yakaringana yekufryisa nyika kakati wandei kunyangwe muchiitiko chisingafungidzirwe kuti miseve yese yepasi yakagogodzwa.

Sezvo mapaundi masere chete ezvombo giredhi plutonium achikosha kuvaka bhomba reatomu, kubvisa simba renyukireya. Sezvo kugadzirwa kwepagore kwapasi kuri matani chiuru nemazana mashanu, magandanga angangoita ane manyuko mazhinji okusarudza kubva. Kuisa mari mune mamwe mafuta kuchatibatsira kutiponesa kubva pakupisa kwepasi uye nekuvhara kugona kwemagandanga kuvaka zvombo zvenyukireya.

Kuti vararame, vanhu vanofanirwa kuedza zvakanyanya mukuita runyararo, kodzero dzevanhu uye chirongwa chepasi rose chekurwisa hurombo. Vanotsigira rubatsiro vakatsigira zvinhu izvi kwemakore mazhinji. Sezvo zvombo zvenyukireya zvichidhura kuchengetedza, kubviswa kwavo kuchasunungura zviwanikwa zvekuvandudza hupenyu pasi pano uye kumisa kutamba Russian roulette.

Kuvhara bhomba mu1960s kwaiva chimwe chinhu chakasimbiswa chete nemutsara weseri. Iye zvino isu tine hove yeropaji yekutengesa yakafanana naHenry Kissinger vachitsvaga zvombo zvenyukireya pasina nyika. Heino mumwe munhu angadai akanyora The Prince dai akanga akararama muzana remakore rechitanhatu.

Zvichakadaro zvivakwa zvemauto zvinofanirwa kuzvidzidzisa kuchengetedza minwe yavo pazvinhu zvinokonzeresa nyukireya kana paine kuvhurwa kusingatenderwe kana netsaona kana kuramwa kwemagandanga. Rudzi rwevanhu harugone kubvumira chiitiko chimwe chinosuruvarisa kuti chipinde munjodzi ingagumisa budiriro.

Zvinotoshamisa kuti pane imwe tariro kubva kuRepublican Party. Vanoda kucheka bhajeti. Richard Cheney paakanga ari Secretary Defense, akabvisa mabheseni mazhinji emauto muUS. Ronald Reagan aida kubvisa zvombo zvenyukireya. Chibvumirano cheKellogg-Briand icho chakadaidzira kubviswa kwehondo chakazadziswa apo Calvin Coolidge aive mutungamiri wenyika.

Inertia chete uye zvikwereti kubva kune zvibvumirano zvekuchengetedza zvichengetedze hurongwa hwe nyukireya huripo.

Vedu venhau, vezvematongerwo enyika nevemauto vanofanirwa kukwidza ndiro kuti vaunze nyika ine rugare. Izvi zvinoda kuti kuve nekujeka uye kushandira pamwe kuchidzivirira kuvanzika, kukwikwidza uye bhizinesi senguva dzose. Vanhu vanofanirwa kutyora iyi isingaperi yehondo kutenderera isati yatipedza isu.

Kubvira sezvo US aine 11,000 zvombo zvenyukireya, Mutungamiri Obama anogona kuronga kuputsa 10,000 mukati memwedzi unouya pane imwe danho riri pedyo nekutungamira kweMutungamiri Reagan uye yevanhu.

Ed O'Rourke akaimbogara muHouston. Iye zvino anogara kuMedellin, Colombia.

Main Sources:

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Generals uye Admirals Zvinyorwa zveNyika Kupikisa Nuclear Weapons, Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility web site, http://www.ccnr.org/generals.html .

Nyukliya rima web site (www.nucleardarkness.org) "Nyukliya Nerima,
Global Climate Change and Nuclear Famine: Migumisiro Inouraya Yehondo Yenyukireya. "

Sagan, Carl. "Nyukliya Winter," http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/sagan_nuclear_winter.html

Santa Barbara Statement, Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility web site, http://www.ccnr.org/generals.html .

Wickersham, Bill. "Insecurity yeNuclear Deterrence," Columbia Daily Tribune, September 1, 2011.

Wickersham, Bill. "Zvombo zveNyukireya Zvichiri Kutyisidzira," Columbia Daily Tribune, Gunyana 27, 2011. Bill Wickersham ndiye mupurofesa anowirirana wezvidzidzo zverunyararo uye nhengo yeMissouri University Nuclear Disarmament Education Team (MUNDET).

Wickersham, Bill. uye "Nyukliya Deterrence Nhema Isingabatsiri" Columbia Daily Tribune, March 1, 2011.

Bright Star Sound. "Stanislav Petrov - World Hero. http://www.brightstarsound.com/