Iwe Unoda Idzva Hondo Yemashoko? Mubatanidzwa weAUKUS Unoendesa Nyika kuBrink

Nguva isati yapera, isu tinofanirwa kuzvibvunza isu mubvunzo wakakosha: Isu tinonyatso - ndinoreva zvechokwadi - tinoda Hondo Yemashoko Matsva neChina?

Nekuti ipapo ndipo panotorwa isu nekutungamira kweBiden. Kana iwe uchida humbowo, tarisa mwedzi wapfuura chiziviso ye“AUKUS” (Australia, United Kingdom, US) mubatanidzwa wemauto muAsia. Nditendei, inotyisa zvikuru (uye ine rusaruraganda) kupfuura chibvumirano chepasi penyukireya chine simba repasi pemvura uye French diplomatic kerfuffle iyo yaitonga nhau yenhau. Nekutarisisa nezvehasha dzinotyisa dzechiFrench pakurasikirwa kwavo nechibvumirano chekutengesa zvisiri zvenyukireya subs kuAustralia, mazhinji enhau. missed nyaya yakakura zvikuru: kuti hurumende yeUS nevabatsiri vayo vese vakazivisa Hondo Yemashoko itsva nekutanga mubatanidzwa wemauto eEast Asia akanangana neChina.

Hazvisati zvanyanya kunonoka kusarudza nzira ine runyararo. Nehurombo, mubatanidzwa weAnglo uyu unouya zvine njodzi pedyo nekuvhara nyika mugakava rakadai rinogona kuve rinopisa, kunyangwe ringangove renyukireya, hondo pakati penyika mbiri dzakapfuma, dzine simba kwazvo papasi.

Kana iwe uchiri mudiki kuti urarame muhondo yepakutanga sezvandakaita, fungidzira uchirara uchitya kuti ungasamuka mangwanani, nekuda kwehondo yenyukireya pakati pemasimba maviri epasirese (mumazuva iwayo, United States). States uye Soviet Union). Fungidzira kufamba uchipfuura nuclear fallout shelters, kuita"dhadha nekuvhara” anorovera pasi pedhesiki rako rechikoro, uye nekusangana nezvimwe zviyeuchidzo zvenguva dzose kuti, chero nguva, hondo ine simba guru inogona kugumisa upenyu paNyika.

Tinonyatsoda ramangwana rekutya here? Tinoda here kuti United States uye muvengi wayo anofungidzirwa kuti adzokere zvakare asingatauriki matiririyoni yemadhora pakushandiswa kwechiuto uku uchiregeredza zvinodiwa nevanhu zvakakosha, zvinosanganisira hutano hwepasi rose, dzidzo, chikafu, uye pekugara, tisingarevi kutadza kubata zvakaringana netyisidziro iri kuuya iripo, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze?

Kuvaka Mauto eUS muAsia

Apo Mutungamiri Joe Biden, Mutungamiriri weAustralia, Scott Morrison, uye Mutungamiriri weBritain, Boris Johnson, vakazivisawo zvavo-zvakare.wowmuwadhi anonzi AUKUS mubatanidzwa, mazhinji enhau akatarisana nechidiki (asi hachina kunyanya kukosha) chikamu chechibvumirano: kutengeswa kweUS kwema submarines ane simba renyukireya kuAustralia uye kukanzurwa kwenyika imwe chete kwechibvumirano cha2016 chekutenga subsizesi-inofambiswa mari kubva Furanzi. Kutarisana nekurasikirwa nemakumi emabhirioni emauro uye kuvharirwa kunze kweAnglo Alliance, Gurukota rezvekunze kwenyika yeFrance, Jean-Yves Le Drian, akadana chibvumirano ichi "kubaya kumusana.” Kekutanga munhoroondo, France muchidimbu akayeuka mumiriri wayo kubva kuWashington. Vakuru veFrance kunyange akadzima gala raireva kupemberera kudyidzana kweFranco-America kubva pakukundwa kwavo neGreat Britain muhondo yeChimurenga.

Yakabatwa zvisingaite nemheremhere pamusoro pemubatanidzwa (uye nhaurirano dzepachivande dzakautangira), manejimendi eBiden akabva atora matanho ekugadzirisa hukama, uye mumiriri weFrance akakurumidza kudzokera kuWashington. MunaGunyana kuUnited Nations, Mutungamiri Biden Wapikisa akazivisa kuti chinhu chekupedzisira chaanoda "Hondo Yemashoko itsva kana nyika yakakamurwa kuita zvikukutu." Zvinosuruvarisa, zviito zvehutongi hwake zvinoratidza zvimwe.

Fungidzira kuti vakuru veBiden manejimendi vaizonzwa sei nezve chiziviso che "VERUCH" (VEnezuela, RUssia, uye CHIna) mubatanidzwa. Fungidzira kuti vaizoita sei pakuvaka zvigaro zvemauto eChinese uye zviuru zvemauto eChinese muVenezuela. Fungidzira maitiro avo kune anogara achiendeswa emhando dzese dzemauto eChina mauto, ngarava dzepasi pegungwa, uye ngarava dzehondo muVenezuela, kuwedzera kushora, kusimudzira kugona kwehondo, uye nzvimbo inokodzera "zviitiko," pamwe nemauto euto anosanganisira zviuru zvemauto eChina neRussia kwete chete muVenezuela asi mumvura dzeAtlantic mukati medaro rinokatyamadza reUnited States. Chikwata chaBiden chaizonzwa sei pamusoro pekupikirwa kuendeswa kwezvikepe zvepasi pevhu zvine simba renyukireya kunyika iyo, zvinosanganisira kuendesa tekinoroji yenyukireya uye uranium-yezvombo-giredhi rezvombo?

Hapana chimwe cheizvi chakaitika, asi aya angave ari eWestern Hemisphere yakaenzana ne“maitiro makuru ekugadzirisa masimba”Vakuru veUS, Australia, neBritain vachangobva kuzivisa nezveEast Asia. Vakuru vakuru veAUKUS vanoratidza zvisingashamisi kuti mubatanidzwa wavo uri kuita kuti zvikamu zveAsia “zvive zvakachengeteka uye zvakachengeteka zvikuru,” ukuwo uchivaka “nguva yemberi yorugare [uye] mukana nokuda kwevanhu vose vomunharaunda yacho.” Hazvigoneke kuti vatungamiriri veUS vangaona yakafanana yeChinese mauto kuvaka muVenezuela kana kupi kumwe muAmerica senzira yakafanana yekuchengeteka nerunyararo.

Mukupindura kune VERUCH, inoda mhinduro yemauto uye mubatanidzwa wakafanana ungakurumidza. Hatifanire kutarisira here kuti vatungamiriri veChinese vatore kune AUKUS kuvaka neshanduro yavo yakafanana? Parizvino, hurumende yeChina mutauri yakaratidza kuti vabatsiri veAUKUS "vanofanirwa kubvisa kufunga kwavo kweCold War" uye "kwete kuvaka mabhurosi anonongedza kana kukuvadza zvido zvevamwe mapato." Kuwedzera kwemauto eChina kwemaitiro ekutsamwisa padhuze neTaiwan anogona kunge ari mamwe mhinduro.

Vatungamiriri veChinese vane chikonzero chakatowanda chekusahadzika chinangwa cherunyararo cheAUKUS chakapihwa kuti mauto eUS atove nawo nomwe zvigaro zvemauto mukati Ositireriya uye ndoda 300 more yakapararira muEast Asia. Kusiyana neizvi, China haina chigadziko chimwe chete muWestern Hemisphere kana chero padyo nemiganhu yeUnited States. Wedzera mune chimwe chinhu: mumakore makumi maviri apfuura, vanobatana neAUKUS vane nhoroondo yekutanga hondo dzinotyisa uye kutora chikamu mune dzimwe mhirizhonga kubva kuAfghanistan, Iraq, neLibya kusvika Yemen, Somalia, nePhilippine, pakati pedzimwe nzvimbo. China's hondo yekupedzisira kunze kwemiganhu yayo kwaive neVietnam kwemwedzi mumwe mu1979 (Pfupi, kurwisana kwakaipisisa kwakaitika neVietnam muna1988 neIndia muna2020.)

War Trumps Diplomacy

Nekubvisa mauto eUS kubva kuAfghanistan, manejimendi eBiden akatanga kutamisa nyika kure negwara rayo remakumi maviri nerimwe rezana rehondo dzisingaperi. Mutungamiriri, zvisinei, izvozvi anoita kunge akatsunga kutsigira avo vari muCongress, mune huru mutemo wezvekunze "Blob," uye mune vezvenhau vari nengozi kuwedzera kutyisidzira kwemauto eChinese uye kudaidzira kuti mauto apindure kune simba repasi rose riri kukura. Kusabata zvakanaka kwehukama nehurumende yeFrance ndechimwe chiratidzo chekuti, kunyangwe paine zvipikirwa zvisati zvaitika, manejimendi eBiden arikunyanya kutarisisa pamusangano wezvematongerwo enyika uye achidzokera kumutemo wezvekunze unotsanangurwa negadziriro yehondo, bhajeti remauto, uye maziso emauto.

Tichifunga nezvemakore makumi maviri ehondo yakaipisisa yakatevera kuziviswa kwehutungamiriri naGeorge W. Bush nezve “Hondo Yepasi Pose paKutyisa” uye nekupinda kwayo muAfghanistan muna 20, bhizinesi ripi rine Washington rekuvaka mubatanidzwa mutsva wemauto muAsia? Ko iyo Biden manejimendi haifanire kunge iri kuvaka mibatanidzwa akazvitsaurira kuna kurwisa kudziya kwepasi, nhenda, nzara, nezvimwe zvinodiwa nokukurumidza nevanhu? Ibhizimisi ripi rine vatungamiri vatatu vechichena venyika nhatu dzine vachena vakawanda vari kuedza kutonga dunhu iri kuburikidza nemauto?

Nepo vatungamiri ve vamwe nyika ikoko dzakagamuchira AUKUS, avo vatatu vanobatana vakaratidzira rusaruraganda, retrograde, downright colonial nature yeAnglo Alliance yavo nekubvisa dzimwe nyika dzeAsia kubva muchikwata chavo chevachena vese. Kutumidza China sechinangwa chayo chiri pachena uye kuwedzera kweCold War-style us-vs.-them kusawirirana kwenjodzi kuwedzera yatova yakazara anti-Chinese uye anti-Asia rusaruro muUnited States nepasirese. Belligerent, anowanzo kurwa hondo achipokana neChina, ane chekuita neaimbove Mutungamiriri wenyika, VaDonald Trump, uye mamwe maRepublicans ari kure-kurudyi, ave kuramba achimbundirwa nehutongi hweBiden nemamwe maDemocrats. "Inobatsira zvakananga mukuwedzera mhirizhonga inopesana neAsia munyika yose," nyora Nyanzvi dzeAsia Christine Ahn, Terry Park, naKathleen Richards.

Iko kusarongeka kuita "Quad" boka iro Washington rakarongawo muAsia, zvakare kusanganisira Australia pamwe neIndia neJapan, iri nani zvishoma uye iri kutove kuwedzera zvehondo anti-Chinese mubatanidzwa. Dzimwe nyika mudunhu vakaratidza kuti vari "kunetsekana zvakanyanya pamusoro pekuenderera kwemajaho nekusimudzira kwesimba" ipapo, se Hurumende yeIndonesia akadaro echiteshi chengarava yepasi pemvura. Zvinenge zvanyarara uye zvakaoma kuona, zvikepe zvakadaro zvombo zvinokuvadza zvakagadzirirwa kurova imwe nyika pasina yambiro. Kuwanikwa kweAustralia kwemberi kwenjodzi idzi kuwedzera nhangemutange yemauto enharaunda uye inomutsa mibvunzo inonetsa nezve zvinangwa zvevatungamiriri veAustralia neUS.

Beyond Indonesia, vanhu pasi rese vanofanirwa kuve kushushikana zvikuru nezvekutengeswa kweUS kwengarava dzepasi pemvura dzinofambiswa nenyukireya. Chibvumirano ichi chinodzikisira kuedza kumisa kupararira kwezvombo zvenyukireya sezvo ichikurudzira kupera yehunyukireya tekinoroji uye zvombo-giredhi rakapfumisa zvakanyanya uranium, iyo iyo US kana Britain hurumende dzichazoda kupa kuAustralia kufutisa iyo subs. Chibvumirano ichi chinopawo muenzaniso kubvumidza dzimwe dzisiri-nyukireya nyika kufanana neJapan kufambisira mberi kugadzirwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya vachinyepedzera kuvaka midziyo yavo ine simba renyukireya. Chii chinomisa China kana Russia kubva ikozvino kutengesa nyukireya-powered submarines uye zvombo-giredhi uranium kuIran, Venezuela, kana chero imwe nyika?

Ndiani ari Kurwisa Asia?

Vamwe vachati United States inofanira kupokana neChina inowedzera simba remauto, kazhinji hwamanda nenhepfenyuro dzeUS. Zvichiwedzera, vatori venhau, pundits, uye vezvematongerwo enyika pano vanga vachiratidzira zvisirizvo zviratidziro zvinotsausa zvesimba remauto reChinese. Kwakadaro kutya ikozvino kubharidzira bhajeti remauto munyika ino, apo ichimutsa nhangemutange yezvombo uye kuwedzera kunetsekana, sezvakangoita panguva yeCold War yekutanga. Zvinoshungurudza, maererano neichangoburwa Chicago Council paGlobal Affairs tsvakurudzo, ruzhinji muUS zvino rwaita sekutenda — zvisinei zvisiri izvo — kuti simba remauto reChinese rakaenzana kana rakakura kupfuura reUnited States. Muchokwadi, simba redu remauto rinopfuura reChina, izvo zviri nyore haina kuenzanisa kuSoviet Union yekare.

Hurumende yeChinese yakasimbisa simba rayo remauto mumakore achangopfuura nekuwedzera mari, kugadzira zvombo zvemberi, uye kuvaka fungidziro 15 to 27 kunyanya mabhesi emauto uye zviteshi zveradar pazvitsuwa zvakagadzirwa nevanhu muSouth China Sea. Kunyange zvakadaro, iyo US bhajeti remauto inoramba ichiramba zvakapetwa katatu kukura kweiyo imwe yechiChinese (uye yakakwira kupfuura pakureba kweCold War yekutanga). Wedzera mubhajeti remauto eAustralia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, uye mamwe mubatanidzwa weNATO seGreat Britain uye mutsauko unokwira kusvika matanhatu kune imwe. Pakati peanenge 750 US mauto ari pasi kunze kwenyika, inenge 300 ndivo vakaparadzirwa mhiri kweEast Asia nePacific uye mamwe akawanda ari mune mamwe matunhu eAsia. Mauto eChina, kune rumwe rutivi, ane sere mabhesi kunze kwenyika (nomwe muSouth China Sea yeSpratley Islands uye mumwe muDjibouti muAfrica), pamwe nezvigadziko muTibet. IUS zvombo zvenyukireya ine 5,800 warheads zvichienzaniswa ne320 muChinese arsenal. Mauto eUS ane makumi matanhatu nemasere ngarava dzepasi pemvura dzine simba renyukireya, mauto eChinese 10.

Kupesana nezvakatungamirwa nevakawanda kuti vatende, China haisi yekumanikidza kuUnited States. Iko hakuna humbowo hurumende yavo iine kana pfungwa iri kure yekutyisidzira, ndoda kurwisa, iyo US pachayo. Rangarira, China yakapedzisira kurwa hondo kunze kwemiganhu yayo muna 1979. "Matambudziko echokwadi anobva kuChina ndeezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi, kwete zvehondo," nyanzvi yePentagon William Hartung akadaro. zvakatsanangurwa zvakarurama.

Kubva President Obama "pivot kuAsia, ”Mauto eU.S. akaita makore ekuvaka mabhesi matsva, kurovedza kwemauto zvine hukasha, uye kuratidzira kwemauto mudunhu iri. Izvi zvakurudzira hurumende yeChina kuti ivake masimba ayo echiuto. Kunyanya mumwedzi ichangopfuura, mauto eChinese apinda mukuwedzera kutsamwisa exercises padyo neTaiwan, kunyangwe fearmongers zvakare ari kutaura zvisizvo uye kuwedzeredza vanotyisa sei zvechokwadi. Tichifunga nezve hurongwa hwaBiden hwekuwedzera mauto evakamutangira muAsia, hapana anofanira kushamisika kana Beijing ikazivisa mhinduro yemauto uye nekutevera mubatanidzwa wakaita seAUKUS. Kana zvirizvo, nyika ichave zvakare yakavharirwa mune-mativi maviri Hondo-Hondo-senge kurwa iyo inogona kuratidza kuwedzera kuoma kusunungura.

Kunze kwekunge Washington neBeijing vaderedza kusawirirana, vanyori vezvakaitika kare vanogona kuona AUKUS seyakafanana kwete chete kune dzakasiyana-siyana dzeCold-War-era mibatanidzwa, asi ne1882 Triple Alliance pakati peGermany, Austria-Hungary, neItaly. Chibvumirano ichocho chakakurudzira France, Britain, neRussia kuumba yavo yeTriple Entente, iyo, pamwe chete kusimukira kwerudzi uye geo-economic makwikwi, akabatsira kutungamirira Europe ichipinda muHondo Yenyika I (iyo, yakazotangawo Hondo Yenyika II, iyo yakatanga Hondo Yemashoko).

Kudzivirira Hondo Nyowani?

Iyo Biden manejimendi uye United States anofanira kuita zvirinani pane kumutsiridza mazano emuzana ramakore regumi nepfumbamwe uye nguva yeHondo Yemashoko. Panzvimbo pekuenderera mberi nekupisa nhangemutange yezvombo zvedunhu paine zvimwe zvigadziko uye kuvandudzwa kwezvombo muAustralia, vakuru veUS vanogona kubatsira kudzikisira kusawirirana pakati peTaiwan neChina, vachishanda kugadzirisa kusawirirana kwenzvimbo muSouth China Sea. Mushure meHondo yeAfghan, Mutungamiri Biden vaigona kuzvipira United States kune imwe nyika mutemo wekutaurirana, kuvaka runyararo, uye kupokana nehondo pane imwe yekunetsana kusingaperi uye gadziriro dzezvimwe zvakafanana. AUKUS yekutanga 18-mwedzi nguva yekubvunzana inopa mukana wekudzoka shure.

Kuvhota kwazvino kunoratidza kuti kufamba kwakadaro kungave kwakakurumbira. Vanopfuura katatu sevazhinji muUS vangada kuona kuwedzera, pane kudzikira, mukudyidzana kwepasirese, maererano nesangano risingabatsiri. Eurasia Group Foundation. Vazhinji vakaongororwa vangadawo kuona mashoma mauto achiendeswa mhiri kwemakungwa. Kaviri sevazhinji vanoda kudzikisa bhajeti remauto sekuda kuiwedzera.

Nyika kupukunyuka zvishoma ari yepakutanga Cold War, iyo yaiva chimwe chinhu kunze kwekutonhora nokuda kwemamiriyoni evanhu vakararama kana kuti vakafa muhondo dzepanguva iyoyo muAfrica, Latin America, uye Asia. Tinogona kunyatsoisa panjodzi imwe vhezheni yakafanana, panguva ino pamwe neRussia pamwe neChina? Tinoda here nhangemutange yezvombo uye kukwikwidza mauto ekuvaka ayo anogona kutsausa matrillion emadhora kubva pakudzvanya zvinodiwa nevanhu panguva kuzadza homwe zvevagadziri vezvombo? Isu tinoda chaizvo kuisa njodzi yekukonzera kurwisana kwemauto pakati peUnited States neChina, netsaona kana neimwe nzira, iyo inogona kubuda mukutonga uye kuve inopisa, pamwe yenyukireya, hondo umo kufa nekuparadzwa yemakore 20 ekupedzisira e“hondo dzisingaperi” yaizoratidzika kuva duku kana tichienzanisa.

Pfungwa iyoyo chete inofanira kunge ichityisa. Pfungwa iyoyo yega inofanira kukwana kumisa imwe Cold War isati yanyanya kunonoka.

Copyright 2021 David Vine

tevera TomDispatch on Twitter uye tibatane nesu Facebook. Tarisa uone nyowani matsva Dispatch Mabhuku, John Feffer's nyowani dystopi, Songlands(wekupedzisira mune yake Splinterlands akateedzana), bhuku raBeverly Gologorsky Muviri Wese Une Nyaya, uye Tom Engelhardt's Rudzi Risina Kuitwa Nehondo, pamwe naAlfred McCoy Mune Mimvuri yeAmerican Century: Kukura uye Kudzikira kweUS Global Power naJohn Dower The Chisimba American Century: Hondo uye Zvinotyisa Kubva Hondo Yenyika II.