International Peace Bureau
Gumiguru 19, 2016. Kuuraya kwevanhu vakawanda uye mhosva dzehondo dzatinopupurira nhasi muSyria dzakakodzerwa nepamusoro-soro yekubatana kwevagari vemo: vanoda kuzvipira kwepasi rose kuzadzisa kugumisa kurwa uye kuvhura nzira yekusvika pakugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika. Nyaya yacho yaisagona kukurumidza kuitwa.
Mushure menhaurirano pamusangano wayo weBerlin (kutanga kwaGumiguru), IPB inokurudzira zvinotevera zvitanhatu zvechirongwa cherunyararo. Harisi zano rinopedza simba, asi rinopa gwara rekuita masangano epasi rose mumavhiki nemwedzi iri kuuya, kunyanya kune isu tiri kunyika dzekuMadokero.
1. Usakuvadza. Pane miganhu kune izvo chero hurumende - kusanganisira iyo US, ine simba zvakanyanya - inokwanisa kuita. Asi kana zviito zvakatorwa navo pasi zviri kutowedzera mamiriro acho ezvinhu, mhinduro yezviito izvi inofanira kubva paHippocratic Oath: kutanga, usakuvadza. Izvi zvinoreva kumisa airstrike kumativi ese, kumisa kuparadzwa kwevanhu nemaguta. Kurwisa zvipatara nezvikoro imhosva yehondo. Parizvino muAleppo vanonyanya kukonzeresa vanoita sehutongi hweAssad neRussia. Zvakadaro US nevamwe vanobatana nayo vanewo nhoroondo refu yekurwiswa nendege kune vanhuwo zvavo - mune yavo kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeSyria uye munyika dzinobva kuAfghanistan kuenda kuLibya kusvika Yemen. Bhomba rega rega ndiro rakawandisa - kunyanya sezvavari kuda kusimbisa masangano anonyanyisa. Uyezve, haisi nyaya chete yekurwisa kubva kumhepo. Kurwa pasi, kudzidziswa, kupihwa nemauto ekunze kunofanirawo kumira.
2. Ita "kwete mabhoti pasi" chaiwo. Tinodaidzira kubviswa kwemauto ese kusanganisira mauto akasarudzika, uyezve kubviswa kwendege dzekunze nemadrones kubva kuSyria airspace. Zvakadaro isu hatitsigire kudanwa kwenzvimbo isina kubhururuka, izvo zvinoda kutenderera kwemhepo nenhengo dzeSecurity Council, zvinoreva njodzi yekukonana kwakananga pakati peUS neRussia. Izvi zvine njodzi zvakanyanya panguva iyo kusawirirana pakati pavo kuri kuwedzera, uye zvinogonawo kuwedzera kurwa pasi. Kuvapo kwemauto eUS kunopa chaizvo izvo ISIS nemamwe masangano anonyanyisa anoda: mauto ekunze munharaunda yavo, achipa vangangove vanotora humbowo hutsva hwekupindira kwekuMadokero munyika dzeMuslim, pamwe nekupa zviuru zvezvinangwa zvitsva. Izvi zvakafanana nechinangwa cheal-Qaeda chemakore gumi nemashanu apfuura, chaive chekudenha US kuti itumire mauto kunharaunda yavo kuti vanorwa navo ikoko. Tataura izvozvo, chinangwa chedu hachisi chekusiya munda wakavhurirwa mauto eHurumende. Chinangwa chekubvisa mauto ekunze ndechekudzikamisa gakava uye nekukasira kuvhura nhaurirano dzekugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika. Kunyangwe izvi zvine chimwe chinhu chenjodzi kune vanhuwo zvavo, ndozvinoitawo marongero azvino anobvumira kuuraya kwevanhu vakawanda kuenderere mberi.
3. Rega kutumira zvombo. IPB inotenda kuti matanho anofanirwa kutorwa munzira yekurambidzwa kwemaoko kuzere kumativi ese. MaSyria anopihwa neUS anowanzo kukundwa ne (kana varwi vavo 2 kukanganisa) ISIS, al-Qaeda's Syrian franchise, kana mamwe mauto asina mwero. Zvingave zvombo izvi zvichiiswa nevanopfurikidza mwero kana nehurumende dzeUS dzinonzi 'dzine mwero' kana mauto, mhedzisiro yacho ndeyekuwedzera mhirizhonga kuvanhu. Hurumende dzekuMadokero dzinofanirwa kumisa tsika yadzo yekuregeredza kutyorwa kwekodzero dzevanhu uye mutemo wepasi rose wakaitwa nezvombo zvadzo uye nevabatsiri vavo. Ipapo ndipo pavachave nekuvimbika kukurudzira Iran neRussia kuti vapedze kubata kwavo hutongi hweSyria. IUS inogona, kana yakasarudza, kumisa nekukasira kuSaudi, UAE, Qatari uye zvimwe kutakura zvombo zvinonanga kuSyria nekumanikidza kurambidzwa kwevashandisi vekupedzisira, pakurwadziwa kwekurasikirwa kwese kweramangwana kuwana zvombo zveUS. Kunyangwe chiri chokwadi kuti vhoti yeSecurity Council yekurambidza kutengeswa kwezvombo ingangove yakavhoterwa nedivi rimwe kana rimwe, nzira yakakosha yekusimbisa yakavhurwa nekupinda musimba kweArms Trade Treaty. Pamusoro pezvo, kurambidzwa kwekutamisa zvombo kweunilateral kunogona uye kunofanirwa kuiswa mukushanda nekukasira.
4. Vakai kudyidzana, kwete kudyidzana kwemauto. Yave nguva yekufambisa diplomacy kusvika pakati, kwete senzira yekuenda kuhondo. Iyo huru-simba diplomacy yatinoona isingaperi paTV skrini yedu inofanira kuenzaniswa neSyria diplomacy. Pakupedzisira zvinoreva kuti munhu wese anobatanidzwa anofanira kunge ari patafura: hutongi hweSyria; masangano ehurumende mukati meSyria kusanganisira vasina mhirizhonga, vakadzi, vechidiki, vakadzingwa mukati, uye vapoteri vakamanikidzwa kutiza Siria (Syria, Iraqi, nePalestine); vaKurd veSyria, maKristu, Druze, uye mamwe mapoka maduku pamwe chete navaSunni, vaShi'a, uye vaAlawite; vapanduki vane zvombo; kupikisa kwekunze uye vatambi vedunhu nepasi rose - US, Russia, European Union, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon uye mhiri. Kurongeka kwakareba zvichida; asi nekufamba kwenguva kusanganisa kuchave kunoshanda pane kusabvisa. Zvichakadaro, Kerry naLavrov vangaita zvakanaka kuisa patafura zvirongwa zvechimbichimbi zvekuburitsa mauto avo. Kunetsana pakati pemahofori maviri ane zvombo zvenyukireya atonyanya kukwira. Kugadzirisa Siria kunogona - pamwe - kuve chirongwa chinozovadzidzisa chidzidzo cherunyararo. Hapana mhinduro yehondo. Russia, sevamwe vatambi, ine zvayo chaiyo geostrategic zvido. Inonongedzera kumaitiro maviri evezvematongerwo enyika vekuMadokero nevatsigiri vavo vezvenhau izvo zvinoonekwa kana tichitarisa zviito zvavo (zvakananga kana zvisina kunanga) mukusimudzira hutsinye mudunhu rese. Asi Russiawo ine ropa revanhuwo zvavo mumaoko ayo uye haigoni kurangarirwa somutsigiri worugare asingafariri. Ichi ndicho chikonzero boka rakakura renyika richida kuunzwa pamwechete. Kutsvaga mhinduro dzakakura dzezvematongerwo enyika muUnited Nations dzinofukidza zvese ISIS nehondo yevagari muSyria zvinoreva, nekufamba kwenguva, rutsigiro rwakakura rwekuedza kutaurirana kumisa pfuti, kubvumidza rubatsiro rwevanhu kupinda, uye kuburitswa kwevagari kubva munzvimbo dzakakombwa. Chisingadiwi imwe Coalition of the Willing; pachinzvimbo isu tinofanirwa kunge tichiita kutanga kweCoalition yeKuvakazve.
5. Wedzera kumanikidzwa kwehupfumi paISIS - uye mamwe mapoka ose ane zvombo. Islamic State inyaya yakakosha uye inomiririra kutyisidzira kwakanyanya. Zvirokwazvo inofanira kukungurutswa; asi hutsinye hwekupikisa simba, sezvatinoona iye zvino mukurwiswa pamusoro pemuganhu weMosul, hazviite kuti ipe mhinduro inogutsa yenguva refu. Iyo inotadza kusvika pamidzi yedambudziko uye tinogovana kutya kwevakuru veUN kuti inogona kumutsa njodzi huru yevanhu. Nyika dzekuMadokero dzinofanirwa kushanda nesimba kuti dzisimbise kuyerera kwemari kuISIS, kunyanya nekudzivirira makambani emafuta, uye kunyanya maTurkey middlemen, kubva mukutengesa mu 'mafuta eropa'. Kubhomba konivhesiti dzemarori emafuta kune zvakakomba zvakatipoteredza pamwe nekukanganisa kwevanhu; zvingava zvinobudirira kuita kuti zvisakwanisika kuti ISIS mafuta atengeswe. 3 Uyezve, Washington inofanira kukanganisa vatsigiri vayo vemapoka ane zvombo, kusanganisira al Qaeda neISIS. Vazhinji vaongorori vanobvumirana kuti chikamu chikuru cheISIS nemamwe mapoka akashonga mari anobva kuSaudi Arabia; kungave kuchibva kumanyuko ehurumende kana kuti asiri pamutemo, Umambo zvirokwazvo hune kudzora kwakakwana kwavagari vahwo kugumisa muitiro wacho.
6. Kuwedzera rubatsiro rwekubatsira vapoteri uye kuwedzera zvisungo zvekugariswa patsva. Masimba ekuMadokero anofanirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya mipiro yavo yerubatsiro kumasangano eUnited Nations kumamirioni evapoteri uye vanhu vakapotera mukati uye vari kutiza kubva kuSyria neIraq. Mari inodiwa zvakanyanya mukati meSyria uye munyika dzakapoteredza. IUS neEU dzakavimbisa mari dzakakura, asi yakawanda yacho haisati yanyatsowaniswa kumasangano, uye zvimwe zvinofanirwa kuvimbiswa nekuunzwa. Asi dambudziko harisi rezvemari chete. IPB inoti tinofanira kuvhura mikova yenyika dzekumadokero kune vapoteri. Hazvigamuchirwi kuti Germany inotora mazana masere ezviuru nepo dzimwe nyika - kusanganisira idzo dzakasimudzira Hondo yeIraq pakutanga - dzinogamuchira zviuru zvishoma, uye vamwe, seHungary, vanoramba zvachose pfungwa yekubatana kweEuropean Union uye kugovana. Chiito chatinoronga hachisi icho chinodiwa chete nekubatana kwevanhu. Chisungo chedu chepamutemo sevakasaina chibvumirano cheRefugee Convention. Kunyange zvazvo tichiziva kuoma kwezvematongerwo enyika kwechinzvimbo chakadaro kunopiwa mafungiro ehurumende aripo iye zvino, mhinduro dzenyika dzakapfuma dzekuMadokero hadzina kukwana. Matanho chaiwo anogona kutorwa: semuenzaniso, mikoto yekubatsira vanhu inofanirwa kusimbiswa (nekutakura kwakarongeka), kuitira kuti vanhu vanotiza hondo havafanire kuisa hupenyu hwavo panjodzi zvakare paMediterranean. Nguva yechando iri kuuya nekukurumidza uye tichaona kufa kwakawanda kunosiririsa kunze kwekunge mutemo mutsva watorwa nekukurumidza.
mhedziso: Siria yakaoma. Wese munhu anoziva mhinduro yezvematongerwo enyika inonetsa uye inotora nguva yakareba kugadzirisa. Zvakadaro ndipo chaipo apo mamiriro ezvinhu akakomba zvikuru apo nhaurirano dzinoda kuteverwa. Icho chokwadi chekuti vamwe vevanopindirana vakaita zviito zvisingagamuchirwi hachisi chikonzero chekusiya hurukuro.
Tinodaidza kumiswa kwemoto munharaunda nematunhu, kumbomira kwekubatsira vanhu uye chero imwe nzira inobvumira masevhisi ekununura kusvika kuvanhu. Zvichakadaro isu tinokurudzira shanduko yekukurumidza mumatongerwo akakosha, sekuisa embargo yezvombo kumativi ese, uye kubvisa mauto ekunze kubva munzvimbo yehondo. Isu tinodaidzawo kuti iongororwe zvirango zvese zvinopesana neSyria, zvimwe zvacho zvinowanzo kuranga vanhuwo zvavo.
Pakupedzisira, tinokurudzira vatinoshanda navo mumasangano emasangano ehurumende mumakondinendi ose kuchengetedza nekuvaka masangano avo. Vezvematongerwo enyika nevamiriri vanofanirwa kuziva kuti maonero epasirese anoda chiito uye haazoshiviriri kumwe kurebesa kwekuuraya kunotyisa uku. Kukunda hondo (nechero divi) haisi sarudzo ikozvino. Chakakosha kuzvipedza.
Imwe Mhinduro
Ini ndinofunga kuti nhaurirano yakaita seiyi haina zvazvinoreva kana isingabvume kuti hondo yeSyria ihondo yeproxy zvakanyanya. Chokwadi ichi chinotyisa chinoshandura masimbiro nechirevo chezvose zvinoshamisa, dzimwe nguva kunyange kupa zvinhu zvinopesana nezvazvinoreva. Isu tinoona izvi, semuenzaniso, apo Russia neSyria vakabvumirana kumisa moto neUS nevadyidzani vayo, kungoona kuti US nevanodyidzana vanoshandisa kumisa pfuti kusimbisa uye kusimbisazve, kuitira kuti vawedzere kurwisa kwavo. Siria, sehondo zhinji munyika yedu, ihondo yeproxy. Kuregeredza izvi kunokanganisa mapindiro ako.
Chechipiri, hazvibatsire kunyepedzera kuti hapana mutsauko pakati peanorwisa nemudziviriri. Izvo hazvina kunaka uye hazvisi pragmatic zvakare. Ungamisa sei moto kana ukaramba kuziva kuti ndiani ari kudira peturu pamoto uye ndiani ari kuedza kudzima moto? Ndiani akazvitanga hausi mubvunzo wevana vekutamba vari kuedza kupana mhosva nekuda kwekupopotedzana. Kazhinji mubvunzo unokosha. Nyaya yacho haisi yekutsvaga mumwe munhu kuti arange Pfungwa ndeyekuedza kunzwisisa sangano mumamiriro ezvinhu.