By Mel Gurtov
Sezvaitarisirwa nevakawanda, Permanent Court of Arbitration pasi peUN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) yakatonga muna Chikunguru 12 ichitsigira sutu yePhilippine kuti izivise zvichemo zveChinese muSouth China Sea (SCS) zvisiri pamutemo. * Pamusoro pezvese, dare rakaona kuti zvichemo zveChina - zvinotsanangurwa neinonzi "nine-dash line" - kunzvimbo yakakura yegungwa uye zviwanikwa zviri pasi pegungwa hazvisi pamutemo, uye nekudaro kuti kudzoreredza ivhu nekuvakwa kwayo muzvitsuwa kunopinda. panzvimbo yePhilippine yakasarudzika yehupfumi. Kunyange zvazvo mutongo wacho usina kupfuurira kunyaya youchangamire pazvitsuwa zveSCS, wakajekesa gakava remuganhu. Mutongo uyu wakawanawo China ine mhosva yekukuvadza nharaunda yegungwa kuburikidza nekuvaka zvitsuwa zvekugadzira, yekukanganisa zvisiri pamutemo kuredza nemafuta ekuPhilippines, uye "kuwedzera" gakava nePhilippine nemabasa ayo ekuvaka. (Chinyorwa chemutongo chiri pa https://www.scribd.com/document/318075282/Permanent-Court-of-Arbitration-PCA-on-the-West-Philippine-Sea-Arbitration#download).
China yakanga yasarudza mhinduro yayo mwedzi yakawanda yapfuura. Bazi rinoona nezvekunze kwenyika rakazivisa mutongo wedare rinotonga kuti “haushandi uye hauna chisimba uye hauna chisimba chinosunga.” Chirevo ichi chakadzokorora kuzvitonga kweChina pamusoro pezvitsuwa zveSCS. Yakataura kuti chimiro cheChina chinopindirana nemutemo wepasi rose, pfungwa isingaenderane nekuramba kwayo kutonga kwedare redzimhosva, ndoda mutongo wayo. China yakazvipira kutungamira nhaurirano nevanofarira uye kugadzirisa kune runyararo kwemakakatanwa, chirevo chinoti; asi "maererano nenyaya dzematunhu nemakakatanwa ekuganhurirwa kwemakungwa, China haigamuchire chero nzira dzekupedza gakava rechitatu kana chero mhinduro yakapihwa kuChina" (Xinhua, Chikunguru 12, 2016, "Chirevo Chizere.")
Pakati pese, zuva rakanga rakashata mudare rePeople's Republic. Kunyangwe ichivimbisa kusatevedzera mutongo uyu, zvichireva kuti China icharamba ichirwisa zvitsuwa zvinopokana uye kudzivirira "zvainoda" ipapo - mauto emugungwa akaita mitambo yawo yekutanga kupfura muSCS zuva risati ratora mutongo wedare - chinotarisika chiripo. pamusoro pekutaura kweChina kuva "simba guru rine mutoro." Mutungamiri Xi Jinping vakaratidza muna 2014 kuti China yaifanira kuve ne "gwara rayo guru rekunze rine hunhu hunokosha," raakadaidza kuti "vatanhatu vanoramba" (liuge jianchi) Misimboti iyi inofungidzirwa kuti yaizogadzira "rudzi rutsva rwehukama hwepasirese," uye yaisanganisira pfungwa dzakaita se "kushandira pamwe nekukunda," izwi guru renyika dzichiri kusimukira, uye kudzivirira kweruramisiro yenyika. Asi zvitanhatu zvinoramba zvichisanganisira "kusambosiya kodzero dzedu uye zvatinofarira" (zhengdang quanyi), iyo inowanzova chikonzero chekuita nenzira dzinopesana zvakananga nemutoro wepasi rose. (Ona: http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/1201/c1002-26128130.html.)
Vatungamiri veChina vaitarisira kuti kusaina uye kubvumidza UCLOS kwaizobatsira nyika. Zvaizoratidza kuzvipira kweChina kuzvibvumirano zvepasi rose, kuratidza kuremekedza kweChina kodzero dzevamwe mugungwa (kunyanya vavakidzani vayo vekuSoutheast Asia) pamwe nekuita kuti kodzero dzayo dzive pamutemo, uye kufambisa kuongororwa kwezviwanikwa pasi pegungwa. Asi zvibvumirano hazviiti nguva dzose sezvinotarisirwa. Izvozvi mutemo zvawaramba, maChinese akaerekana atsvaga kusakodzera dare reUNCLOS uye kududzira zvakare chinangwa chegungano. Hadzisi hurumende zhinji dzinogona kutsigira kudzokera shure kwakadaro.
IUS, kunyangwe yagara ichitsigira chinzvimbo chePhilippine, haina chekufara pamusoro apa. Chekutanga, US haisati yasaina kana kubvumidza UNCLOS, uye nekudaro haina kusimba kuita nharo yakamiririra kana kukwidza nyaya kumutemo wepasi rose uye "nemitemo inotungamirwa nehurongwa" kana hurumende dzikatyora (sekutorwa kweCrimea neRussia). Chechipiri, seChina, US yagara ichitora maonero akaderera emutemo wepasirese kana "zvido zvenyika" zviri panjodzi. Zvingave maererano neInternational Court of Justice kana chero rimwe dare repasi rose, US haina kumbobvira yagamuchira pfungwa yehutongi hwekumanikidzwa, uye kutaura zvazviri yagara ichiita sekunge ndiyo. kusunungurwa kubva kumitemo nemitemo. Saka, seChina, basa reUS sesimba guru harigamuchire ruremekedzo uye kutevedzera zvibvumirano zvepasirese uye zvibvumirano, masangano emutemo epasi rose (seInternational Criminal Court), kana mitemo yepamutemo yepasirese (senge iyo ine chekuita nekusapindira, kuuraya rudzi. , uye kurwadzisa). (Ona: www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/05/america-and-international-law.. Dzese US neChina, muchidimbu, dzinotaura asi hadzifambi netsoka—kunze kwekunge mutemo uchishanda.
Uye ndicho chidzidzo chaicho pano-kusava nehanya kwemasimba makuru, maitiro avo ekuzvipira kumutemo wepasi rose, uye kugona kushoma kwemasangano emutemo kumanikidza maitiro avo. Zvichida munyaya yeSCS China nePhilippine, pari zvino pasi pemutungamiri mutsva, vachawana nzira yavo yekudzokera kutafura yenhaurirano vogadzira chibvumirano chinopedza nyaya yehutongi yakaoma. (Ona chinyorwa changu chekupedzisira panyaya iyi: https://mgurtov.wordpress.com/2016/06/11/post-119-too-close-for-comfort-the-dangerous-us-china-maritime-dispute/.) Izvozvo zvingava zvakanaka; asi zvaisazogadzirisa dambudziko guru rekuti hunhu hwekuteerera mutemo hungasimudzirwa sei nekutevedzwa munyika inowanzoita mhirizhonga.
*Dare iri, iro rakatanga kushanda panyaya yeSCS muna 2013, rine vatongi vanobva kuGhana, Poland, Netherlands, France, neGermany.
