naTrita Parsi, October 13, 2017
From CommonDreams
Usaita chisina kukanganisa: Hatina dambudziko pamusoro pekutengesa nuclear nyukliya. Iri kushanda uye munhu wose kubva kune Munyori Mattis naTillerson kuenda kuU.S. uye maIseri eIseric Energy Agency anobvuma kuti: Iran iri kunamatira kune chibvumirano. Asi VaTrump vava kuda kutora chibvumirano chekushandira voichinja kuita dambudziko - dambudziko repasirese iro rinogona kutungamira kuhondo. Nepo kudzikiswa kwechibvumirano cheIran icho Trump chakarongerwa kuzivisa neChishanu mukati uye pachezvayo chisingapunzise chibvumirano, zvinotangisa maitiro anowedzera njodzi yehondo munzira shanu dzinotevera.
1. Kana icho chibvumirano chikawa, ndizvo zvinoita zvinorehwa nehurongwa hwe nyukliya yeIrish
Nhamba yenyukireya, kana kuti Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) yakatora miviri miviri yakaipa kwazvo patafura: Yakadzivisa nzira dzose dzeIrish ku bhomba renyukireya uye yakadzivisa hondo neIran. Nokuuraya chibvumirano chacho, Trump iri kuisa zvose zvezviitiko izvi zvakaipa patafura.
Sezvandinorondedzera mubhuku rangu Kurasikirwa neMuvengi - Obama, Iran uye kukunda kweDiplomacy, yaive njodzi chaiyo yekukonana kwemauto kwakadzinga manejimendi weBarack Obama kuti azvipire zvakanyanya kuwana mhinduro yedambudziko iri. Muna Ndira 2012, ipapo-Secretary-Defense wezvekudzivirira Leon Panetta akataura pachena kuti kubuda kweIran - nguva yaizotora kubva mukuita sarudzo yekuvaka bhomba kuti ive nezvinhu zvebhomba - yaive mwedzi gumi nemaviri. Kunyangwe paine masanction akakura kuIran aive nechinangwa chekudzora chirongwa chenyukireya nekugonesa maIran kuti chirongwa chenyukireya chakadhura zvakanyanya kuti chienderere mberi, maIran nechisimba vakawedzera mabasa avo enyukireya
Pakazosvika January 2013, gore rakatevera gare gare, pfungwa itsva yekukurumidzira yakatanga kuve pa White House. Nguva yekuparara yeIrish yakaderera kubva pamwedzi gumi nembiri kusvika kumasvondo e8-12 chete. Kana Iran yakasarudza kuputira bhomba, United States ingave isina nguva yakakwana yokumisa Tehran nemauto. Maererano neyaimbova mutungamiriri weCIA, Michael Morell, nguva inopera yeIrish yakaita kuti US ive "pedyo nehondo neIslamic Republic pane imwe nguva kubvira 1979"Dzimwe nyika dzakaona njodzi pamwe chete. "Chaizvoizvo kutyisidzirwa kwechiuto chakanga chava kunzwa semagetsi mumhepo isati yatinhira," Mutungamiriri weRussia Mutevedzeri Wemamwe Marudzi Sergey Ryabkov akandiudza.
Kana pasina chakachinja, President Obama vakapedzisa, iyo US munguva pfupi yaizotarisana nesarudzo yekusarudzika: Pamwe kuenda kuhondo neIran (nekuda kwekumanikidzwa neIsrael, Saudi Arabia uye zvimwe zvinhu mukati meUS) kumisa chirongwa chenyukireya kana kubvuma kukanganiswa nenyukireya kweIran. accompli. Iyo chete nzira yekubuda mune ino yekurasikirwa-kurasikirwa mamiriro yaive yediplomatic mhinduro. Mwedzi mitatu gare gare, iyo US neIran vakaita musangano wepachivande wakakosha muOman uko manejimendi aObama akakwanisa kuwana budiriro yezvematongerwo enyika iyo yakapa nzira yeJCPOA.
Izvo zvakabvisa hondo. Killing the deal kunodzivisa rugare. Kana Trump ichiwa nechokuita uye veIrani vanotangazve purogiramu yavo, veUnited States vachakurumidza kuzviwana vachitarisana nedambudziko rakafanana iro Obama akaita mu 2013. Mutsauko ndewokuti Mutungamiri iye zvino Donald Trump, murume asingatombozivi kuti akadudzira sei dhimbirano, ngaarege kuzviita.
2. Trump iri kuronga kutora Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Kusarudzwa kunongova hafu yengano. Trump inorongawo kuwedzera kukanganisa neIran munharaunda, kusanganisira kutora chiyero icho zvose Bush uye Obama hurumende dzakaramba: Sarudza Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sangano regandanga. Usaita chisina kukanganisa, IRGC iri kure neuto revasande. Icho chinokonzera zvizhinji zvekudzvinyirira pamusoro pehuwandu hwemukati yeIrish uye yakarwa neuto reUnited States risiri pachena muIraq kuburikidza neShia militias. Asi yakange iriwo imwe yenyaya dzakakosha zvikuru kurwisa ISIS.
Mune mazwi chaiwo, zita racho harina kuwedzera zvakawanda kumanikidziro eUnited States kana kuti inogona kuisa pa IRGC. Asi inobatanidza zvinhu nenzira yakaipisisa pasina ruzivo rwakajeka kuUnited States. Zvisinei, zvipingamupinyi, zvisinei, zvakajeka. Mukuru we IRGC Mohammad Ali Jafari akabudisa a stern warning vhiki rakapera: "Kana nhau dziri dzechokwadi pamusoro pehupenzi hwehurumende yeAmerica mukufunga nezveVamiriri veChimurenga seboka remagandanga, ipapo Vamiriri veRevolutionary vachatora mauto eAmerica kunge Islamic State [ISIS] kutenderera pasirese." Kana iyo IRGC ikaita yambiro yayo ndokunanga mauto eUS - uye kune zviuru gumi zvinangwa zvakadaro muIraq - isu tinongova nematanho mashoma kubva kuhondo
3. Trump iri kukura pasina kuve neyekubuda mahara
Kuwedzera kune mamiriro ose ezvinhu mungozi ine ngozi. Asi iyo inonyanya kuipa kana iwe usina michina yemibvumirano inovimbisa kuti rumwe rutivi runoverenga zviratidzo zvako nenzira yakarurama uye inopa nzira dzekutsvaga. Kusava nemakumbo akadai kwakadai sekufambisa motokari pasina kuputsa. Iwe unokwanisa kukurumidza, iwe unogona kuparara, asi iwe haugoni kuputsa.
Vakuru vakuru vehondo vanonzwisisa izvi. Ndizvo zvaimbova sachigaro weVa Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen akanyeverwa pamusoro pamberi pekutungamira kwe Obama kuisa mari mumakwikwi. "Hatina hukama hwakananga hwekukurukurirana neIran kubva ku1979," akadaro Mullen. "Uye ndinofunga kuti zvakasima mbeu dzakawanda nokuda kwekusaziva. Kana iwe usingafungi, unogona kuwedzera uye usanzwisisi ... Hatisi kutaurirana neIran, saka hatinzwisisi. Kana chimwe chinhu chikaitika, zvinonyatsovimbiswa kuti hatingazoiti zvakanaka - kuti kuchava nekunyengedzera kunogona kuve kwakaipisisa munzvimbo iyo yenyika. "
Mullen akapa nyevero iyi apo Obama aiva purezidhendi, murume anowanzozvidzwa pamusana pekudzivirirwa uye asingadi kushandisa simba rehondo. Fungidzira kuti Mullen akanetseka uye anonetseka sei kuva nhasi naTrump achidana shots mumamiriro ezvinhu.
4. Vamwe vashandi veUnited States vanoda US kuti varwise hondo yavo neIran
Hapana chakavanzika icho Israeri, Saudhi Arabhiya uye Brazil vave vachimanikidza US kuitira makore kuenda kuhondo neIran. Israeri kunyanya yakanga isingokuvhunduswi kwekuita basa rechiuto chairo, chinangwa chayo chikuru chaiva chokugumbusa United States kuti itange kurwisa kwezvinhu zvenyukireya zveIria zveIsrael.
"Chinangwa," Vaimbova mukuru wehurumende yeEuroddha Ehud Barak vakabvuma kuIndaneti pepa Ynet muna July gore rino, "Yakanga iri yekuita kuti veAmerica vandise zvigadziriswe uye kuti vaite basa racho." Kunyange zvazvo hurumende yeIsrael ichichengetedza nhasi inopesana nekuuraya chipenyu chenyukireya (Barak pachake akataura zvakanyanya iyo hurukuro neNew York Times vhiki ino), hapana chinoratidza kuti Prime Minister weIsrael Benjamin Netanyahu akachinja pfungwa dzake panyaya iyi. Akadana Trump kuti "kugadzirisa kana nixChibvumirano ichi, kunyange hazvo maitiro ake ekugadzirisa chibvumirano ichi asiri echokwadi zvinoita kuti chibvumirano chiparare - izvo zvinozoisa US munzira yekurwa neIran.
Munhu mumwe chete ane mubvunzo wekutonga kwakanyanya kupfuura Trump ndiNetanyahu. Pashure pezvose, izvi ndizvo izvo zvaakaudza vateereri veUnited States mu2002 sezvo akavakumbira kuti vapinde muIraq: "Kana iwe ukabvisa Saddam, hurumende yeSaddam, ndinokuudza kuti ichava nekudzoka kwakanaka kwakanyanya munzvimbo."
5. Vanopa Trump vanofungisisa nekutanga hondo neIran
Vamwe vakataura kuti VaTrump vari kutsvaga kuisirwa chibvumirano cheIran - kunyangwe paine zano rekubvumirana revapangamazano vake vepamusoro kuti varege kuenda nenzira iyi - nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kubva pachigaro chake. Asi hapana humbowo hwekuti hwaro hwake hunofarira zvikuru nezve iyi nyaya. Asi, sekunyora kwaEli Clifton zvine hungwaru, simba rakazvipira zvakanyanya pakuda kwaTrump kuuraya chibvumirano cheIran hachisi chigaro chake, asi boka diki revanozvipira veRepublican. "Chiverengero chidiki chemushandirapamwe wake mukuru uye vanopa rubatsiro kuzvidzivirira zviri pamutemo vakataura zvakanyanyisa nezveIran uye, mune imwe nyaya, vakakurudzira kushandiswa kwechombo chenyukireya kurwisa Islamic Republic," Clifton akanyora mwedzi wapera.
Bhiriyoniire Home Depot muvakidzani Bernard Marcus, somuenzaniso, akapa Trump $ 101,700 kuti abatsire kutora Trump uye Donald Trump Jr. mitero yemitemo mushure mekutsvakurudza kwekusarudzwa kwechisarudzo cheRussia. Hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer mumwewo mubatsiri mukuru wekuendesa mapoka ehondo muWashington iyo Trump yakavimba nayo nokuda kwekutsigirwa kwemari. Bhizinesi rinonzi Billionaire Donor, iyeye, ndeyeSheldon Adelson uyo akapa $ 35 mamiriyoni e-Trump Super PAC Future 45. Vose ava vanopa mari vakamanikidza hondo neIran, kunyange Adelson chete akangosvika kunekuratidza US inofanira kuuraya Iran ne zvombo zvenyukireya seyanano yekukurukurirana.
Kusvika ikozvino, Trump yakaenda nezano reva mabhiriyoniire aya kuIran pamusoro peye Munyori weHurumende, Munyori weZviviri uye Sachigaro we Joint Chiefs of Staff. Hapana chimwe chezviitiko zvishanu zviri pamusoro apa chaiye mwedzi mishomanana yapfuura. Ivo vakava pachena - kunyange zvichida - nokuti Trump yakasarudza kuvaita saizvozvo. Kungofanana neGeorge Bush kupindira kweIraq, kurwisana kwaTrump naIrish ihondo yekusarudza, kwete hondo yezvinodiwa.
~~~~~~~~~
Trita Parsi ndiye nheyo uye mutungamiriri weNational Iranian American Council uye nyanzvi yehukama hweUnited States, Iranian mune dzimwe nyika, uye geopolitics yeMiddle East. Ndiye munyori we Kurasikirwa neMuvengi - Obama, Iran uye Kukunda kweDiplomacy; Rimwechete Rakaumbirwa Dhiza - Dhipatimendi raObama neIran; uye Kunyengedzera Kubatana: Zvakavanzika Zvakavanzika zveIsrael, Iran, neUnited States.
