Ndi Gareth Porter, May 5, 2020
kuchokera Grayzone
Purezidenti Donald Trump adapanga mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya ndi Iran ndikupitilizabe kuopseza nkhondo ndi Iran potengera zomwe Prime Minister wa Israeli a Benjamin Netanyahu akuti adatsimikiza kuti Iran idafunitsitsa kupanga zida za nyukiliya. Netanyahu sikuti anangolankhula za a Trump komanso ambiri mwa mabungwe ofalitsa komanso kuwapangitsa kuti adziwitse anthu zomwe adanenazo kuti zinali zachitetezo cha nyukiliya ku Iran.
Kumayambiriro kwa Epulo 2018, Netanyahu mwachidule Trump mwachinsinsi pa malo omwe akuyenera kuti asungidwe ku zida za nyukiliya ku Irani ndipo adasunga lonjezo lake losiya Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Mwezi wa Epulo 30, a Netanyahu adapereka nkhaniyi kwa anthu onse modabwitsa momwe adanenera kuti ntchito zaukazitape za Israel Mossad zidabera mbiri ya nyukiliya ya Iran ku Tehran. "Mudziwa kuti atsogoleri a Iran amakana mobwerezabwereza kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya ..." Netanyahu analengeza. "Chabwino, usikuuno, ndabwera kudzakuuzani chinthu chimodzi: Iran yanama. Nthawi yayikulu. ”
Komabe, kufufuzidwa kwa zolembedwa zamanyukiliya zaku Iran za The Grayzone kuwawululira kuti ndi chinthu chomwe chidayambitsa nkhondo yaku Israeli yomwe idathandizira kuyambitsa chiopsezo chachikulu cha nkhondo kuyambira pamene mkangano ndi Iran udayamba zaka makumi anayi zapitazo. Kufufuzaku kunapeza zambiri kuti nkhani ya Mossad yemwe anali masamba masamba 50,000 a mafayilo obisika ochokera ku Tehran ndiyotheka kuti inali nthano chabe komanso kuti zolembedwazi zinapangidwa ndi a Mossad.
Malinga ndi zomwe boma likuchita ku Israel, a Irani adatenga zikalata za nyukiliya m'malo osiyanasiyana ndikuwapititsa ku zomwe Netanyahu mwini adafotokoza kuti "nyumba yosungiramo madzi" kumwera kwa Tehran. Ngakhale kungoganiza kuti Iran inali ndi zikalata zachinsinsi zomwe zikuwonetsa kupangidwa kwa zida za nyukiliya, zonena kuti zikalata zachinsinsi zitha kusungidwa mosungira komanso malo osungidwa osadziwika ku Central Tehran ndizokayikitsa kwambiri chifukwa zikadakhala kuti zimakweza ma bwaloli pompopompo pankhani yovomerezeka.
Zovuta kwambiri zinali kufuna kwa mkulu wa Mossad kwa mtolankhani waku Israeli Ronen Bergman kuti Mossad samadziwa kokha m'malo osungira ma commandos ake kuti akapezeko zikalatazo koma ndendende kuti ndi safesi iti yomwe angalowe nayo ndi blowtorch. Mkuluyo adauza Bergman kuti gulu la Mossad lidatsogozedwa ndi chida chanzeru kuzinthu zochepa zosewerera munyumba yosungiramo omwe anali ndi omanga okhala ndi zikalata zofunika kwambiri. Netanyahu wotembereredwa pagulu kuti "ochepa kwambiri" aku Iran adadziwa komwe kwasungidwa; wogwira ntchito ku Mossad adauza Bergman "ndi anthu ochepa" omwe amadziwa.
Koma akulu awiri akale a CIA, onse omwe adagwirapo ntchito ngati wofufuza wamkulu ku Middle East, adatsutsa zomwe a Netanyahu sanakhulupirire poyankha funso lochokera ku The Grayzone.
Malinga ndi Paul Pillar, yemwe anali National Intelligence Officer kuderali kuyambira 2001 mpaka 2005, "Chuma chilichonse mkatikati mwa zida zachitetezo cha dziko la Irani chingakhale chamtengo wapatali pamaso pa Israeli, ndipo kukambirana kwa Israeli pakugwiritsa ntchito chidziwitso cha gwero mwina kungakhale koyenera. khalani okondera kuyambira kalekale kuteteza gwero. ” Nkhani ya ku Israeli yokhudza momwe azondi ake amapezera zolembedwazo "zikuwoneka ngati zamawonekedwe," anatero Pillar, makamaka poganizira zoyesayesa zenizeni za Israeli kuti apeze "zandale zandale" pazomwe akuti "zawululidwa" pagwero lodziwika bwino.
A Graham Fuller, wakale wakale wazaka 27 wa CIA yemwe amagwira ntchito ngati National Intelligence Officer ku Near East ndi South Asia komanso Wachiwiri kwa Wapampando wa National Intelligence Council, adawunikanso zomwezomwe aku Israel akuti anena. A Fuller anati: "A Israel akadakhala kuti ali ndi gwero labwino ku Tehran, sakanafuna kumuika pachiwopsezo." Fuller ananena kuti zomwe a Israel ananena kuti amadziwa bwino zomwe zimatha kuphweka ndi "zabodza, ndipo zinthu zonsezo mwina zitha kupangidwa."
Palibe umboni wotsimikiza
Netanyahu's Epulo 30 chiwonetsero chazithunzi adapereka zikalata zingapo zaku Iran zomwe zili ndi mavumbulutsidwe osonyeza kuti iye akuwaumiriza kuti Iran idanama kuti ikufuna kupanga zida za nyukiliya. Zothandizira zowonetsera zinaphatikizapo fayilo yomwe imanenedwa koyambirira kwa 2000 kapena isanafotokozedwe njira zingapo zakukwanitsira konza zomanga zida zisanu za nyukiliya pofika pakati pa 2003.
Chikalata china chomwe chachititsa chidwi chofalitsa nkhani chinali choti chinaimbidwa lipoti pazokambirana Pakati pa asayansi otsogolera aku Iran zakuchotsa chisankho chapakati pa 2003 ndi Unduna wa Zachitetezo ku Iran kuti alekanitse zida zanyukiliya zobisika zomwe zikupezeka m'malo obisalako.
Kumanzere kwanyimbo zomwe zikutulutsidwa mu "zolembedwazi za nyukiliya" izi zinali zosavuta kwa a Netanyahu: palibe chilichonse chokhudza iwo chomwe chikanapereka umboni kuti ndiowona. Mwachitsanzo, palibe amene anali ndi zikwangwani za bungwe loyenerera la Iran.
Tariq Rauf, yemwe anali mtsogoleri wa Verification and Security Policy Coordination Office ku International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) kuyambira 2001 mpaka 2011, adauza The Grayzone kuti zolemba izi zinali zofanana pa mafayilo aku Iran.
Ranif adafotokoza kuti, "Iran ndi njira yabwino kwambiri yoyendetsera zinthu. "Chifukwa chake, munthu angayembekezere pulogalamu yoyenera yosungitsa zomwe zikubwera, tsiku lomwe alandila, ofisala, dipatimenti yoyendetsa maofesala, mabungwe ena oyenerera, olemba kalata, ndi ena otero."
Koma monga Rauf adanenera, zolemba "za zida za nyukiliya" zomwe zinali lofalitsidwa ndi Washington Post analibe umboni wotere waboma la Iran. Komanso analibe zolemba zina zosonyeza kuti adapangidwa mothandizidwa ndi boma la Iran.
Zomwe zolembedwazi zimafanana ndi chizindikiro cha sitampu ya mphira chosungiramo zida zoonetsa manambala a "mbiri", "fayilo" ndi "chosakanizira" - monga zida zakuda zomwe Netanyahu adadziwonera makamera panthawi yake . Koma izi zikadatha kupangidwa ndi Mossad ndikusindikiza kwa zikalata pamodzi ndi manambala oyenera aku Persia.
Kutsimikizika kwaumboni pakukwaniritsidwa kwa zikalatazo kukadafuna kuti athe kupeza zolemba zoyambirira. Koma monga Netanyahu adanenera muwonetsero wake wa Epulo 30, 2018, "zida zoyambirira zaku Iran" zidasungidwa "pamalo otetezeka kwambiri" - kutanthauza kuti palibe amene angaloledwe kukhala nawo.
Kuletsa kulowa kwa akatswiri akunja
M'malo mwake, ngakhale alendo omwe anali achi Israeli kwambiri ku Tel Aviv aletsedwa kulandira zolemba zoyambirira. David Albright wa Institute for Science and International Security ndi Olli Heinonen wa Foundation for Defense of Democracies - onse omenyera ufulu wa mzere wakale wa Israeli pa mfundo zanyukiliya ku Irani - inanena mu Okutobala 2018 kuti anali atangopatsidwa ka “slide” komwe kamawonetsa zolemba kapena masamba a zolembedwazo.
Gulu la akatswiri asanu ndi mmodzi ochokera ku Harvard Kennedy School ku Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs atapita ku Israel mu Januware 2019 kuti akafotokozere mwachidule zomwe zidasungidwazo, nawonso adangopatsidwa mwachidule zolemba zomwe akuti ndizoyambirira. Pulofesa Matthew Bunn wa ku Harvard adakumbukira poyankhulana ndi wolemba uyu kuti gululi lawonetsedwa m'modzi mwa omanga omwe anali ndi zikalata zoyambirira zokhudzana ndi ubale wa Iran ndi IAEA ndipo "adachita pang'ono."
Koma adawonetsedwa kuti palibe zikalata pazogwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya ku Iran. Monga Bunn adavomereza, "Sitinali kuyesa kusanthula zolemba izi."
Nthawi zambiri, ingakhale ntchito ya boma la US ndi IAEA kuti zitsimikizire zolemba. Oddly, nthumwi ya Belfer Center idati boma la US ndi IAEA aliyense adalandira zolemba zonse zokha, osati mafayilo oyambirirawo. Ndipo Aisraeli sanathe kupereka mwachangu zolemba zenizeni: a IAEA sanalandire zolemba zathunthu mpaka Novembala 2019, malinga ndi a Bunn.
Pofika nthawi imeneyi, Netanyahu anali atangomaliza kale kuwononga mgwirizano wamanyukiliya ku Iran; iye ndi a director a Trump aukazitape woyang'anira CIA, Mike Pompeo, adalimbikitsa pulezidentiyo kuti agwirizane ndi Tehran.
Kubweranso kwachiwiri kwa zojambula zabodza
Zina mwa zikalata Netanyahu adaziwonera pazenera lake Epulo 30, 2018 chiwonetsero chazithunzi anali chojambula chojambula Galimoto yonyamula zida zankhondo yaku Iran ya Shahab-3, kuwonetsa zomwe zimayenera kuyimira zida za nyukiliya mkati.
Chithunzichi chinali chimodzi mwa zojambulajambula khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu zagalimoto ya Shahab-3. Izi zidapezeka mndandanda wa zikalata zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa kwa zaka zingapo pakati pa mabungwe achi Bush II ndi a Obama ndi kazitape waku Iran yemwe amagwira ntchito yaukazitape wa Germany BND. Kapena choncho nkhani yotsogolera ku Israeli idapita.
Mu 2013, komabe, mkulu wakale waofesi yakunja ya Germany wotchedwa Karsten Voigt adauza wolemba uyu kuti zolembazo zidaperekedwa kwa anzeru aku Germany ndi membala wa a Mujaheddin E-Khalq (MEK).
MEK ndi gulu lozunzidwa ku Irani lomwe lakhala likugwilizana ndi boma la Saddam Hussein ngati loya ku Iran pa nkhondo ya Iran-Iraq. Zinapitilira mgwirizano ndi Israeli Mossad kuyambira 1990s, ndikukhala ndi ubale wapamtima ndi Saudi Arabia komanso. Lero, akuluakulu ambiri aku US ali pantchito yolipira ya MEK, kukhala ngati othandizira chidwi pakusintha kwa maulamuliro ku Iran.
Voigt adakumbukira momwe akuluakulu a BND adamuchenjezera kuti asaganizire gwero la MEK kapena zinthu zomwe adapereka kuti ndizodalirika. Iwo anali ndi nkhawa kuti bungwe la a Bush likufuna kugwiritsa ntchito zikalata zodetsa nkhawa kuti zisaukire dziko la Iran, monga momwe zimapezera mwayi pa nkhani zazikuru zomwe zatoleredwa ndi woimira kumbuyo wa ku Iraq wotchedwa "Curveball" kuti athandize nkhondo yaku Iraq mu 2003.
Monga wolemba adanenedwa koyamba mu 2010, Kuwonekera kwa mawonekedwe a "dunce-cap" yagalimoto yobwereranso ya Shahab-3 mu zojambulazo inali chizindikiro chodziwikiratu kuti zolembedwazo zidapangidwa. Yemwe adalemba zithunzizi mu 2003 mwachidziwikire anali ndi chonamizira kuti Iran idalira Shahab-3 ngati mphamvu yake yayikulu yoteteza. Kupatula apo, Iran idalengeza pagulu mu 2001 kuti Shahab-3 ikupanga "kupanga wamba" ndipo mu 2003 kuti "ikugwira ntchito."
Koma zomwe boma la Iran limanenazi zinali nthano yofuna kupusitsa Israel, yomwe inali yowopseza kuwombera kwa ndege pazomenyera nkhondo ndi zida zaku Iran. M'malo mwake, Ministry of Defense ya Iran idadziwa kuti Shahab-3 ilibe magawo okwanira kufikira Israeli.
Malinga ndi Michael Elleman, wolemba kwambiri akaunti yotsimikizika ya dongosolo la chida cha Iran, chaka cha 2000, Unduna wa Zachitetezo ku Iran udayamba kupanga mtundu wapamwamba wa Shahab-3 wokhala ndi galimoto yabwino yosadzitamandira ngati botolo la "triconic baby" osati "dunce-cap" loyambirira.
Monga momwe Elleman adauzira wolemba, komabe, mabungwe anzeru zakunja sanadziwe za mfuti yatsopano komanso yosintha ya Shahab yomwe ili ndi mawonekedwe ena mpaka itayesedwa koyamba mu Ogasiti 2004. Mwa mabungwe omwe sanadziwe za kapangidwe katsopano kameneka anali Mossad wa Israeli. . Izi ndichifukwa chake zikalata zabodza zokonzanso Shahab-3 - zoyambirira zomwe zinali mu 2002, malinga ndi chikalata chosasindikiza chamkati cha IAEA - adawonetsa kapangidwe ka galimoto zomwe reentry idadula kale Iran.
Udindo wa MEK popereka gawo lalikulu la zikalata zanyukiliya zaku Iran ku BND komanso ubale wake wapamanja ndi Mossad sizimapereka mpata wokayikira kuti zikalata zomwe zidafotokozedwera ku Western intelligence 2004 zidapangidwa ndi Mossad.
Kwa a Mossad, MEK inali njira yabwino yotumizira atolankhani olakwika okhudza Iran zomwe sizimafuna kuti zichitike mwachindunji ku Israeli. Kupititsa patsogolo kudalirika kwa MEK pamaso pa atolankhani akunja ndi mabungwe azamisili, Mossad adadutsa maofesi a zida zanyukiliya a Natanz ku Iran ku MEK mchaka cha 2002. Pambuyo pake, idapereka chidziwitso cha MEK monga nambala ya pasipoti ndi nambala yafoni yakunyumba ya fizikiya yaku Iran pulofesa Mohsen Fakhrizadh, omwe dzina lawo limapezeka pazolemba zanyukiliya, malinga ndi olemba anzawo a buku logulitsa kwambiri ku Israeli pantchito zobisa za Mossad.
Pochotsa zojambula zofananira zomwe zikuwonetsa galimoto yolakwika yolowetsa zida zaku Iran - chinyengo chomwe adayika kale kuti apange mlandu woyimba mlandu Iran kuti ikubisa zida zanyukiliya - Prime Minister waku Israeli adawonetsa kuti ali ndi chidaliro kuti angathe kuchita hoodwink Washington ndi atolankhani aku Western.
Zachinyengo zambiri za a Netanyahu zakhala zikuyenda bwino kwambiri, ngakhale adadalira zinthu zopanda pake zomwe bungwe lililonse lazolimba liyenera kudziwa. Mwakugwiritsa ntchito maboma akunja komanso atolankhani, adatha kuyendetsa a Donald Trump ndi United States kuti achite nkhondo zomwe zadzetsa US ku chiwopsezo cha nkhondo ndi Iran.
Gareth Porter ndi mtolankhani wodziyimira pawokha wofufuza yemwe adalemba mfundo zachitetezo cha dziko kuyambira 2005 ndipo adalandila Mphotho ya Gellhorn ya Utolankhani mu 2012. Buku lake laposachedwa kwambiri ndi The CIA Insider's Guide to the Iran Crisis yolembedwa ndi John Kiriakou, yomwe yangofalitsidwa mu February.
