Chimachitika ndi Chiyani Ngati Mavuto a Zanyengo ndi Zachilengedwe Akhazikitsidwa Monga Chiwopsezo cha Dziko?

Chithunzi: iStock

Wolemba Liz Boulton, Mapale ndi Kukwiya, October 11, 2022

Kwa zaka 30, chiwopsezo chakusintha kwanyengo koopsa, komwe kungapangitse kuti dziko lapansi lisakhalepo zamoyo zambiri zamoyo, lakhala likuwonedwa ngati nkhani yasayansi ndi zachuma. Mwina chifukwa cha miyambo yakale, komanso chifukwa cha nkhawa zovomerezeka za kubwezeretsedwa, izi zangokhala nkhani zachiwembu.

Pamene asayansi amaphunzira za kuthekera kwa moyo wa mapulaneti kugwa; gawo lachitetezo, lomwe lili ndi udindo woteteza mayiko awo, anthu ndi madera awo, (ndipo amapatsidwa ndalama zochitira izi) amayang'ana kwina. Mayiko aku Western akhazikitsa vuto lalikulu lachitetezo tsopano ngati chiwonetsero chapakati pakati pa maulamuliro a demokalase ndi a autocracy. Mayiko omwe si akumadzulo akufuna kuchoka ku unipolar kupita kudziko la polar.

M'dera lino lazandale, monga mkulu wa US Center for Climate and Security John Conger Akufotokoza, kutentha kwa dziko kumaonedwa ngati chinthu chimodzi chokha pa zinthu zambiri zowopsa. Mu zake 2022 Strategic Concept NATO ikutsatiranso izi, pofotokoza kusintha kwanyengo ngati vuto lomwe limatchulapo zomaliza zachitetezo cha 14. Mafelemu awa akubwereza Ndi Sherri Goodman choyambirira "kutentha kwapadziko lonse lapansi monga chowopsezera chochulukitsa", chomwe chinayambitsidwa mu 2007 Ripoti la CNA.

Mu 2022, ichi ndi chizoloŵezi cha momwe chitetezo chimayendera. Anthu amakhalabe m'malo awo osungiramo ntchito ndikugwiritsa ntchito zida zazikulu komanso zomangira kuyambira nthawi ya pre-Anthropocene komanso pambuyo pa WW2. Dongosololi lingakhale lomasuka ndi anthu komanso mwanzeru, koma vuto ndiloti, silikugwiranso ntchito.

Njira yatsopano yotchedwa 'Plan E' imayika zovuta zanyengo ndi chilengedwe osati ngati 'chisonkhezero' pa chilengedwe chowopsa, kapena 'kuchulukitsa ziwopsezo' koma m'malo mwake, monga 'chiwopsezo chachikulu' kusungidwa. Kafukufukuyu adakhudza kupanga lingaliro latsopano lachiwopsezo - the hyperthreat lingaliro - kenako ndikuyika 'hyperthreat' ku kusanthula kwachiwopsezo chankhondo ndi njira yokonzekera mayankho. Zolinga za njira yachilendoyi, ndi njira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito zafotokozedwa mu 2022 Spring Journal of Advanced Military Studies. Kupangitsa kulingalira mozama za momwe kuwopseza kwatsopano kungawonekere, chiwonetsero chotsatira, kapena chithunzi chatsopano njira yayikulu, PLAN E, yapangidwanso.

Ngakhale zinali zowopsa komanso zosavomerezeka, lens yatsopanoyi idalola kuzindikira kwatsopano.

1. 1. Choyamba, idawulula kuti kuthekera kowona mawonekedwe owopsa a 21^st Century imasokonezedwa ndi malingaliro akale a filosofi ndi malingaliro adziko.
   2. Kachiwiri, idawunikira lingaliro lakuti chikhalidwe cha chiwawa, kupha ndi chiwonongeko chasintha kwambiri; momwemonso ali ndi chikhalidwe ndi mawonekedwe ozindikira zolinga zaudani.
   3. Chachitatu, zidawonekeratu kuti kubwera kwa hyperthreat kumakulitsa njira zamakono zopezera chitetezo. 20^th Njira yachitetezo chazaka zana idazungulira kuthandizira mphamvu zamaboma munthawi yamafakitale, zomwe zimatengera kutulutsa kwazinthu komanso kupezeka kwa 'mafuta opambana'. mu nkhondo. Monga Doug Stokes Akufotokoza, makamaka pambuyo pa zaka za m'ma 1970, pamene maunyolo a padziko lonse adakhala pachiopsezo cha kusokonezeka, panali mkangano wowonjezereka wapadziko lonse wogwiritsa ntchito zida zamphamvu, monga Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) ndi asilikali a US kuti "asunge dongosolo."

Chifukwa chake, pogwira ntchito ya "system's maintenance", mosadziwa mabungwe achitetezo amatha kugwira ntchito chifukwa cha hyperthreat (kuchulukitsa kutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha komanso kuwononga zachilengedwe). Pa nthawi yomweyo, pamene kutsata mwankhanza, "kukonza machitidwe" kumayambitsa mkwiyo ndipo kungayambitse "kumadzulo" kuonedwa ngati chiwopsezo choyenera ku mayiko ena. Kuphatikizidwa pamodzi, zotsatirazi zitha kutanthauza kuti magulu achitetezo akumayiko akumadzulo amawononga chitetezo chawo komanso cha ena mosazindikira. Izi zikutanthauza kuti kuwopseza kwathu sikukugwirizananso.

4. 4. Chachinayi, kusunga ndondomeko ya nyengo ndi chilengedwe mu silo imodzi, ndi ndondomeko ya chitetezo m'malo ena, zikutanthauza kuti, ngakhale kuti zokambirana za nyengo ya Paris Agreement zinali zofanana ndi nkhondo ya Iraq, nkhani ziwirizi sizinali zogwirizanitsidwa kawirikawiri pakuwunika chitetezo cha nyengo. Monga Jeff Colgan anapeza, mafuta anali dalaivala wamkulu wa mkangano umenewu, ndipo motero, modabwitsa, pogwiritsa ntchito lens latsopano, nkhondo ya Iraq ikhoza kuwonedwa ngati nkhondo yomwe inamenyedwa m'malo mwa mdani wathu watsopano - hyperthreat. Kusiyana kodabwitsa kumeneku sikungapitirire pakuwunika kwachitetezo chamtsogolo.
   5. Chachisanu, palibe mtundu wa ntchito - sayansi ya chilengedwe kapena chitetezo chazindikira kusagwirizana kwa anthu omwe akukonzekera 'kumenyana' ndi ziwopsezo zankhondo zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira nthawi imodzi. Kupyolera mu zofuna zake zofunikila pa mafuta oyaka; luso la uinjiniya wa anthu; zaukadaulo ndi zachuma, kukonzekera mwamphamvu za Nkhondo Yachitatu Yapadziko Lonse (WW3), (kapena nkhondo zenizeni zenizeni mu nthawi ya 2022 mpaka 2030), zitha kusokoneza ntchito yovuta yosinthira anthu kukhala njira zotulutsa mpweya, ndikumanga chochitika chachisanu ndi chimodzi kutha.
   6. Chachisanu ndi chimodzi, kulephera kulingalira za momwe anthu angawopsyezedwe ngati gawo la gulu lonse loyankha ku hyperthreat kumatsutsa anthu ambiri mwa luso lofufuza, njira, ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu omwe anthu adapanga kwa zaka zikwi zambiri kuti adziteteze ku chiopsezo choopsa komanso choopsa. Idathetsanso kuthekera kwa gawo lachitetezo ndi chitetezo, kukonzanso, ndikusintha chidwi chake komanso mphamvu yayikulu pamahatchi kuyankha kwa hyper.

Ngakhale kusintha kwanyengo koopsa kumanenedwa ngati "chiwopsezo chachikulu;" Chiwopsezo cha anthu sichinasinthe kwenikweni.

PLAN E imapereka njira ina: gawo lachitetezo limangotembenuza chidwi chake ndikuthandizira "kusamalira machitidwe" kutali ndi gawo lamafuta ndi zotsalira. Imathandizira ntchito yosiyana "yokonza machitidwe": kuteteza dongosolo la moyo wa mapulaneti. Pochita izi, ikugwirizananso ndi raison d'être wake wofunikira kuteteza anthu ndi madera ake - pankhondo yofunika kwambiri yomwe anthu adayidziwapo.