Wolemba Medea Benjamin ndi Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, January 25, 2023
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists yangotulutsa kumene 2023 Doomsday Clock mawu, akutcha imeneyi “nthaŵi yangozi imene sinachitikepo n’kale lonse.” Yapititsa patsogolo manja a wotchi mpaka masekondi 90 mpaka pakati pausiku, kutanthauza kuti dziko layandikira ku tsoka lapadziko lonse kuposa kale lonse, makamaka chifukwa mkangano wa ku Ukraine wawonjezera kwambiri chiopsezo cha nkhondo ya nyukiliya. Kuwunika kwasayansi uku kuyenera kudzutsa atsogoleri adziko lapansi kuti akufunika kubweretsa magulu omwe akukhudzidwa ndi nkhondo ya Ukraine pagome lamtendere.
Pakalipano, mkangano wokhudza zokambirana za mtendere kuti athetse mkanganowo wakhala akuzungulira kwambiri zomwe Ukraine ndi Russia ziyenera kukonzekera kubweretsa patebulo kuti athetse nkhondo ndi kubwezeretsa mtendere. Komabe, popeza kuti nkhondoyi siili pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine koma ndi gawo la "Nkhondo Yatsopano Yozizira" pakati pa Russia ndi United States, si Russia ndi Ukraine zokha zomwe ziyenera kuganizira zomwe angabweretse patebulo kuti athetse. . United States iyeneranso kuganizira zomwe ingachite kuti ithetse mkangano wake ndi Russia womwe unayambitsa nkhondoyi poyamba.
Mavuto a geopolitical omwe adayambitsa nkhondo ku Ukraine adayamba ndi kusweka kwa NATO amalonjeza kuti asakulitse ku Eastern Europe, ndipo zidakulitsidwa ndi chilengezo chake mu 2008 kuti Ukraine potsiriza Lowani nawo mgwirizanowu makamaka wotsutsana ndi Russia.
Kenako, mu 2014, wothandizidwa ndi US kuwombera motsutsana ndi boma losankhidwa la Ukraine linayambitsa kupasuka kwa Ukraine. 51% yokha ya anthu aku Ukraine omwe adafunsidwa adauza kafukufuku wa Gallup kuti adazindikira kuvomerezeka a boma pambuyo pa chiwembu, ndi akuluakulu ku Crimea komanso m'zigawo za Donetsk ndi Luhansk adavota kuti adzipatula ku Ukraine. Crimea inagwirizananso ndi Russia, ndipo boma latsopano la Ukraine linayambitsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni yolimbana ndi anthu odzitcha okha kuti “People’s Republics” a Donetsk ndi Luhansk.
Nkhondo yapachiŵeniŵeni inapha anthu pafupifupi 14,000, koma mgwirizano wa Minsk II mu 2015 unakhazikitsa malo oletsa kumenyana ndi malo otetezedwa, ndi 1,300 padziko lonse lapansi. OSCE oyang'anira kuyimitsa moto ndi ogwira ntchito. Mzere woyimitsa moto unachitika makamaka kwa zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri, ndi ovulala adakana kwambiri chaka ndi chaka. Koma boma la Ukraine silinathetse vuto lomwe linali landale popatsa Donetsk ndi Luhansk udindo wodzilamulira womwe adawalonjeza mu mgwirizano wa Minsk II.
Tsopano wakale Chancellor waku Germany Angela Merkel ndi Purezidenti waku France Francois Holland avomereza kuti atsogoleri aku Western adangovomereza mgwirizano wa Minsk II kuti agule nthawi, kuti athe kumanga gulu lankhondo la Ukraine kuti potsirizira pake abwezeretse Donetsk ndi Luhansk mokakamiza.
Mu Marichi 2022, mwezi umodzi pambuyo pa kuukira kwa Russia, zokambirana zothetsa nkhondo zidachitika ku Turkey. Russia ndi Ukraine anajambula "mgwirizano wosalowerera ndale" wa mfundo 15, zomwe Purezidenti Zelenskyy adawonetsa poyera ndi anafotokoza kwa anthu ake pawailesi yakanema yapadziko lonse lapansi pa Marichi 27. Dziko la Russia lidavomera kuti lichoke m'madera omwe idakhalapo kuyambira pomwe idawukira mu February posinthana ndi kudzipereka kwa Ukraine kuti asalowe nawo ku NATO kapena kukhala ndi magulu ankhondo akunja. Ndondomekoyi idaphatikizaponso malingaliro othetsera tsogolo la Crimea ndi Donbas.
Koma mu April, ogwirizana a Kumadzulo kwa Ukraine, United States ndi United Kingdom makamaka, anakana kuchirikiza mgwirizano wosalowerera ndale ndipo ananyengerera Ukraine kusiya zokambirana zake ndi Russia. Akuluakulu aku US ndi Britain adanena panthawiyo kuti adawona mwayi "press" ndi “fooka” Russia, ndi kuti iwo ankafuna kugwiritsa ntchito bwino mwayi umenewo.
Zomwe maboma aku US ndi Britain adasankha kuti awononge mgwirizano wosalowerera ndale ku Ukraine m'mwezi wachiwiri wankhondo wadzetsa mkangano wautali komanso wowononga ndi mazana masauzande ankhondo. ovulala. Palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ingagonjetse ina, ndipo kukwera kwatsopano kulikonse kumawonjezera ngozi ya "nkhondo yayikulu pakati pa NATO ndi Russia," monga Mlembi Wamkulu wa NATO Jens Stoltenberg posachedwapa. anachenjezedwa.
Atsogoleri a US ndi NATO tsopano Funsani kuti athandizire kubwereranso pagome lokambirana lomwe adakhazikitsa mu Epulo, ndi cholinga chomwechi kuti akwaniritse kuchotsedwa kwa Russia m'gawo lomwe adakhala kuyambira February. Amazindikira bwino kuti miyezi isanu ndi inayi yankhondo yosafunikira komanso yamagazi yalephera kuwongolera bwino zokambirana za Ukraine.
M'malo mongotumiza zida zambiri kuti ziwotche nkhondo yomwe singapambane pabwalo lankhondo, atsogoleri aku Western ali ndi udindo waukulu wothandizira kuyambitsanso zokambirana ndikuwonetsetsa kuti apambana nthawi ino. Mgwirizano wina waukazembe ngati womwe adaupanga mu Epulo ungakhale tsoka ku Ukraine ndi dziko lonse lapansi.
Ndiye kodi United States ingabweretse chiyani patebulo kuti ithandizire kupita kumtendere ku Ukraine ndikuchepetsanso zoopsa zake za Cold War ndi Russia?
Monga Crisis Missile Crisis pa nthawi ya Cold War yoyambirira, vutoli litha kukhala chothandizira kuti pakhale zokambirana kuti athetse kusokonekera kwa ubale wa US-Russia. M'malo moyika pachiwopsezo cha kuwonongedwa kwa nyukiliya pofuna "kufooketsa" Russia, United States ingagwiritse ntchito vutoli kuti atsegule nthawi yatsopano yolamulira zida za nyukiliya, mapangano oletsa zida komanso kukambirana.
Kwa zaka zambiri, Purezidenti Putin adadandaula za gulu lalikulu lankhondo la US ku Eastern ndi Central Europe. Koma pambuyo pakuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine, US idatero kukhazikika kukhalapo kwake asitikali aku Europe. Chawonjezera kutumizidwa kwathunthu Asitikali aku America ku Europe kuchokera 80,000 isanafike February 2022 mpaka pafupifupi 100,000. Yatumiza zombo zankhondo ku Spain, magulu ankhondo omenyera nkhondo ku United Kingdom, asitikali ku Romania ndi ku Baltic, ndi zida zoteteza ndege ku Germany ndi Italy.
Ngakhale kuukira kwa Russia kusanachitike, US idayamba kukulitsa kupezeka kwake pamalo oponya zida ku Romania zomwe Russia idatsutsa kuyambira pomwe idayamba kugwira ntchito ku 2016. Asitikali aku US adamanganso zomwe The New York Times wotchedwa "kuyika zida zankhondo zaku US zokhudzidwa kwambiri” ku Poland, pamtunda wa makilomita 100 okha kuchokera m’gawo la Russia. Maziko aku Poland ndi Romania ali ndi ma radar apamwamba kwambiri oti azitha kutsata mivi yankhanza ndi zoponya zoponya kuti ziwagwetse.
Anthu aku Russia akuda nkhawa kuti makhazikitsidwe awa atha kubwezeretsedwanso kuwotcha zida zowononga kapena zida zanyukiliya, ndipo ndizomwe zidachitika mu 1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Mgwirizano pakati pa US ndi Soviet Union zoletsedwa, mpaka Purezidenti Bush adachoka mu 2002.
Ngakhale Pentagon ikufotokoza malo awiriwa ngati chitetezo ndipo amadziyesa kuti sakulunjika ku Russia, Putin ali ndi anaumiriza kuti mazikowo ndi umboni wakuwopseza komwe kukubwera kwa NATO chakum'mawa.
Nazi njira zomwe US angaganizire kukhazikitsa patebulo kuti ayambe kukulitsa mikangano yomwe ikukulirakulira ndikuwonjezera mwayi wa mgwirizano wothetsa nkhondo ndi mtendere ku Ukraine:
- United States ndi mayiko ena akumadzulo atha kuthandizira kusalowerera ndale kwa Ukraine povomera kutenga nawo gawo pazitsimikizo zachitetezo zomwe Ukraine ndi Russia zidagwirizana mu Marichi, koma zomwe US ndi UK zidakana.
- US ndi ogwirizana nawo a NATO atha kudziwitsa anthu aku Russia posachedwa pazokambirana kuti ali okonzeka kuchotsa zilango ku Russia ngati gawo la mgwirizano wamtendere.
- A US akhoza kuvomereza kuchepetsa kwakukulu kwa asilikali a 100,000 omwe ali nawo tsopano ku Ulaya, ndikuchotsa zida zake ku Romania ndi Poland ndikupereka zidazo ku mayiko awo.
- United States ikhoza kudzipereka kugwira ntchito ndi Russia pa mgwirizano kuti ayambirenso kuchepetsa zida zawo zanyukiliya, ndikuyimitsa zomwe mayiko awiriwa akufuna kupanga zida zoopsa kwambiri. Atha kubwezeretsanso Pangano la Open Skies, pomwe United States idachoka mu 2020, kuti mbali zonse ziwiri zitsimikizire kuti ina ikuchotsa ndikugwetsa zida zomwe avomereza kuthetsa.
- United States ikhoza kuyambitsa zokambirana za kuchotsa zida zake za nyukiliya m'mayiko asanu a ku Ulaya komwe zili pano kutumizidwa: Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium ndi Turkey.
Ngati dziko la United States likufuna kuyika kusintha kwa ndondomekozi pokambirana ndi Russia, zidzakhala zosavuta kuti Russia ndi Ukraine zigwirizane ndi mgwirizano wothetsera nkhondo, ndikuthandizira kuonetsetsa kuti mtendere umene akukambirana ukhale wokhazikika komanso wokhalitsa. .
Kuchepetsa kufalikira kwa Cold War ndi Russia kungapatse Russia phindu lowoneka kuti liwonetse nzika zake pamene likuchoka ku Ukraine. Zitha kulolanso kuti United States ichepetse ndalama zomwe imagwiritsa ntchito pankhondo ndikupangitsa kuti mayiko aku Europe aziyang'anira chitetezo chawo, monga ambiri mwa iwo. anthu ndikufuna.
Kukambitsirana kwa US-Russia sikudzakhala kophweka, koma kudzipereka kwenikweni kuti athetse kusamvana kudzapanga njira yatsopano yomwe sitepe iliyonse ingatengedwe ndi chidaliro chachikulu pamene njira yokhazikitsa mtendere ikupanga mphamvu yakeyake.
Anthu ambiri padziko lapansi angapume mpumulo kuti aone kupita patsogolo kwa nkhondo ku Ukraine, ndikuwona United States ndi Russia zikugwira ntchito limodzi pofuna kuchepetsa kuopsa kwa nkhondo ndi chidani chawo. Izi zikuyenera kupititsa patsogolo mgwirizano wapadziko lonse pazovuta zina zazikulu zomwe dziko lapansi likukumana nazo m'zaka za zana lino-ndipo zitha kuyamba kubweza manja a Doomsday Clock popanga dziko kukhala malo otetezeka kwa tonsefe.
Medea Benjamin ndi Nicolas JS Davies ndi omwe adalemba Nkhondo ku Ukraine: Kumvetsetsa Mkangano Wopanda Nzeru, yopezeka ku OR Books mu Novembala 2022.
Medea Benjamin ndiye woyambitsa wa CODEPINK kwa Mtendere, ndi wolemba mabuku angapo, kuphatikizapo M'kati mwa Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Nicolas JS Davies ndi mtolankhani wodziyimira payekha, wofufuza ndi CODEPINK komanso wolemba wa Mwazi M'manja Mwathu: Kubowola Kwa America ndi Kuwonongeka kwa Iraq.
