Kazembe wa Trump waku South Korea asankha kutsutsa kuukira kumpoto. Chifukwa chake Trump adamutaya.

Poyamba State of the Union polankhula, Purezidenti Donald Trump adapereka nthawi yayitali kukambirana ndi North Korea. Adalongosola dzikolo monga momwe George W. Bush adafotokozera Iraq mu 2002: ngati boma lankhanza, lopanda nzeru lomwe zida zake zimawopseza dziko la America.

Koma ngakhale zinali zodetsa nkhawa kumva Trump akupanga mlandu wophimbidwa pang'ono wankhondo ina yodzitetezera, imeneyo sinali nkhani yovuta kwambiri yokhudza mfundo zaku North Korea kuti ituluke usiku watha.

Atangotsala pang'ono kulankhula za Trump, Washington Post Adanenanso kuti kusankha kwa Trump kukhala kazembe ku South Korea - a Victor Cha, m'modzi mwa akatswiri olemekezeka kwambiri ku North Korea ku America - akuchotsedwa. Chifukwa chomwe chidatchulidwa ndi Post chinali chodetsa nkhawa: Cha adatsutsa zomwe akuluakulu aboma anena kuti ayambe kumenyedwa pang'ono pamsonkhano wachinsinsi. Cha onse koma adatsimikizira izi yekha patangotha ​​​​maola angapo pambuyo pofalitsa nkhaniyo ndi op-ed mu pepala lomwelo kudzudzula lingaliro loukira North Korea.

Kutuluka kwa Cha kuda nkhawa kwambiri Boma la South Korea, yomwe idavomereza mwalamulo kusankha. Zinachititsanso mantha akatswiri a ku North Korea, omwe adawona ngati chizindikiro chodziwika bwino kuti nkhani ya nkhondoyi sinali nkhani chabe.

"Izi [zochotsa Cha monga wosankhidwa] zikusonyeza kuti akuluakulu akuganizira mozama ... kunyalanyazidwa," akutero Kingston Reif, mkulu wa ndondomeko yochepetsera zida ndi kuchepetsa ziwopsezo ku bungwe la Arms Control Association.

Steve Saideman, katswiri wa mfundo zakunja zaku US ku Carleton University, ananena mosapita m'mbali pa Twitter: "Nkhondo yatsopano yaku Korea tsopano mwina ndiyotheka kuposa 2018."

Chifukwa chiyani gawo la Victor Cha limapangitsa kuwoneka ngati nkhondo ikubwera

Cha ndi katswiri wotsogola ku North Korea. Katswiri wamaphunziro kwanthawi yayitali, adagwirapo ntchito muulamuliro wa George W. Bush kuyambira 2004 mpaka 2007 ngati director of the National Security Council for Asian Affairs ndipo pano ndi pulofesa ku Georgetown University.

Alinso pamapeto a hawkish wa akatswiri aku North Korea. Wavomereza kuchitapo kanthu mwamphamvu kuti ateteze ku pulogalamu yanyukiliya yaku North, monga kukhazikitsa chingwe chapamadzi kuzungulira North Korea kuti atseke zida zilizonse zanyukiliya zomwe zimayesa kugulitsa kwa zigawenga kapena maboma ena ankhanza.

Nkhwangwa waku North Korea yemwe amadziwa zambiri komanso kulemekezedwa kwambiri akuwoneka ngati chisankho chabwino kwa olamulira a Trump, chifukwa chake akuti kusankhidwa kwa Cha kukuwoneka kuti kudasokonekera chifukwa adasankhidwa. kwambiri kwa timu ya Trump.

Tsatanetsatane wa zomwe zidachitikazo, zomwe zidanenedwa ndi The Financial Times, kwenikweni nyundo mfundo iyi kunyumba:

Malinga ndi anthu awiri omwe amadziwa bwino zokambirana za Mr Cha ndi White House, adafunsidwa ndi akuluakulu a boma ngati anali wokonzeka kuthandizira kusamutsidwa kwa nzika za ku America ku South Korea - ntchito yomwe imadziwika kuti ntchito zothamangitsira anthu osamenyana - zomwe zingatheke. pafupifupi kukhazikitsidwa nkhondo isanayambe. Anthu awiriwa adati a Cha, omwe akuwoneka kuti ali mbali ya hawkish ku North Korea, adanena kuti akukayikira za mtundu uliwonse wa nkhondo.

Nkhaniyi imapangitsa kuti ziwoneke ngati olamulira a Trump akukonzekera kuukira North Korea - mpaka akuganizira mozama momwe angatetezere anthu ambiri aku America ku South. Cha adatsutsa lingaliro la kuukira kwa North Korea, zomwe zikuwoneka kuti zidamulepheretsa kulingalira.

Mfundo yakuti Cha adafalitsa op-ed pambuyo pake akudzudzula nkhondo ndi yofunikanso. Adadzudzula mwatsatanetsatane zomwe zimayambitsa "mphuno yamagazi" - kuwukira pang'ono kwa asitikali aku North Korea ndi zida zanyukiliya zomwe cholinga chake sichikukulitsa vutoli kunkhondo yonse, koma kuwonetsa Pyongyang kuti kuyesanso kupititsa patsogolo pulogalamu yake ya nyukiliya kukwaniritsidwa. ndi mphamvu. Mwachiwonekere, ndi mtundu wankhondo womwe gulu la Trump likutsamira - ndipo Cha akuganiza kuti ndizowopsa kwambiri.

"Ngati tikukhulupirira kuti Kim [Jong Un] sangasinthe popanda kumenyedwa koteroko, tingakhulupirirenso bwanji kuti kunyanyala kungamulepheretse kuyankha?" Cha analemba. "Ndipo ngati Kim sadziwikiratu, wopupuluma komanso wongoganiza mopanda nzeru, tingathe bwanji kuwongolera makwerero okwera, omwe amatengera kumvetsetsa kwanzeru kwa mdani ndi kuletsa?"

Mfundo yakuti Cha adachotsedwa pambuyo powonetsa kutsutsidwa kotereku mkati, akatswiri amati, ndi chizindikiro chodziwikiratu kuti olamulira akutenga lingaliro la nkhondo mozama kwambiri.

"Kuti a Victor Cha adakakamizika kuti alembetse ndi chizindikiro chowopsa kuti ngozi yakumenyedwa ndi yowopsa," akulemba Mira Rapp-Hooper, a. Katswiri waku North Korea ku Yale.

Ngakhale nkhondo siili pafupi, mkhalidwe wa Cha ukuvutitsa

Zithunzi za Adam Berry / Getty

N'kuthekanso kuti kuwopseza mphamvu uku ndikosavuta, komanso kuti kuchotsedwa kwa Cha ndi gawo la kayendetsedwe ka Trump.

"Purezidenti akuyesa kupereka chithunzithunzi chakuti nkhondo ndi yotheka kuti awopsyeze North Korea kuti azichita zinthu mosamala," anatero Jenny Town, wothandizira wamkulu wa bungwe la US-Korea Institute ku Johns Hopkins. "Munjira yotere, simungakhale ndi otsutsa, makamaka muulamuliro wanu, ngati mukufuna kuti chiwopsezocho chikhale chodalirika."

Koma ngati izi ndi zoona, ndipo openyerera ambiri ozindikira amaganiza kuti sichoncho, ndiye kutenga Cha pomuganizira akadali owopsa. Zizindikiro zambiri zomwe oyang'anira a Trump amatumiza kuti akufunitsitsa zankhondo, m'pamenenso amakhala ndi mwayi woyambitsa imodzi mwangozi.

"Vuto la njira yotereyi, ndithudi, ndiloti poyesa kukhazikitsa chiwopsezo chodalirika, North Korea ikhoza kuyamba kumukhulupirira - ndipo m'malo mochita mantha, idzawonjezeranso," Town akuwonjezera. "Funso ndilakuti, ndi nthawi yanji yomwe timapunthwa mwangozi munkhondo yosafunikira komanso yopewera?"

Kusowa kwa kazembe ku Seoul kumapangitsa kuti izi zitheke. Kazembe amagwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri polimbikitsa ogwirizana nawo komanso popereka malingaliro ogwirizana nawo ku Washington. Ndikosowa kwambiri kukhala ndi kazembe m'malo mwa dziko lomwe ndi lofunika kwambiri pa nthawi ino mu kayendetsedwe katsopano - pazifukwa zomveka.

"Potengera kusamvana komwe kuli pachilumbachi komanso kufunikira kwa mgwirizano wa US-Korea, ndizoyipa kuposa zolakwa zaukazembe kuti kulibe kazembe wa US ku Seoul," akutero Reif, katswiri wa Arms Control Association.

Pakachitika vuto pakati pa US ndi North Korea, Cha mwina akanakhala mawu ofunikira ochenjeza mkati mwa oyang'anira. Akadathanso kufotokozera bwino za Kumpoto kuchokera ku boma la South Korea kupita ku maboma apamwamba a US, komanso kuwonetsa kukayikira kwa boma la South Korea pakukula kwamtundu uliwonse wankhondo.

Kusankhidwa kwa Cha, mwachidule, kukanapereka chiwongolero chovuta pavuto lomwe silikuyenda bwino. Palibe mwayi wa izo tsopano.

"Kusiya kusankhidwa kwa kazembe kuti achite nawo mgwirizano waukulu pakati pamavuto akulu sikunachitikepo," akulemba motero Abraham Denmark, amene anatumikira monga wachiwiri kwa mlembi wothandizira ku East Asia mu ulamuliro wa Obama. "Mfundo yoti ndi munthu wodziwa zambiri komanso woyenerera ngati Victor Cha iyenera kuyimitsa aliyense."