Chokhachokha: Kuphatikizidwa ku United States ku Ukraine ku 2014 kunayambitsa nkhondo yatsopano ndi Russia, koma Pulezidenti Trump akhoza kubwezeretsa mikangano ndi njira yothetsera vuto la Ukraine, analemba Jonathan Marshall.
Ndi Jonathan Marshall, Nkhani za Consortium
Ngati Donald Trump akufuna kupanga chidziwitso chodziwikiratu pa ndondomeko yachilendo ya US kumayambiriro kwa utsogoleri wake, palibe malo abwino omwe angayambe kusiyana ndi kuthetsa nkhondo yachiwawa ku Ukraine yomwe ilipo adanenapo moyo wa 10,000.
Obama akulamulira anathandiza kupha nkhondo imeneyo poyesa kulowera Ukraine kuchoka ku dziko la Russia ndi ku chitetezo chakumadzulo ndi chuma. Pogwira ntchito limodzi ndi European Union, Washington inachititsa kuti ziwonetsero zowonongeka mumsewu zithetsa boma la Kiev mu February 2014. Moscow adayankha (kapena, malinga ndi malingaliro anu, akuyanjananso ndi) Chi Crimea chomwe chimalankhula Chirasha, chomwe chimakhalanso likulu la Moscow Black Fleet, ndipo akuthandizira pro-Russia kupatukana kumadera akummawa a Donetsk ndi Luhansk.
Kuchokera apo, mbali ziwirizi zakhala zikulimbana ndi mliri wamagazi. Kuwonjezera pa kupha zikwi zikwi za nkhondo, nkhondo ili kuwononga chuma cha Ukraine ndipo adalimbikitsa ziphuphu zowonongeka. Zolinga za US ndi EU zasokoneza chuma cha Russia ndipo zinayambitsa mgwirizano pakati pa Washington ndi Moscow m'madera ena. Kukweza mikangano pakati pa NATO ndi Russia kwakhala kwakukulu kwambiri nkhondo yomenyana pakati pa maboma awiri akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi.
Chiyembekezo chabwino cha Ukraine - ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa mgwirizano wa East-West - ndi Minsk Protocol, yolembedwa ndi Chiyukireniya, Russia, ndi maphwando a ku Ulaya mumzinda wa Belarus pa Sept. 5, 2014. Chigwirizanocho chinapereka kutha, kusinthana kwa akaidi, ndi chikonzero chokhazikitsa ndale chifukwa chopatsa madera a Donetsk ndi Luhansk "malo apadera."
Chigwirizano chimenecho chinaphwanyidwa pakati pa nkhondo mpaka atsopano atayina pangano la Minsk-2 pa Feb. 12, 2015. Zinapereka kusintha kwa malamulo, zisankho m'maboma awiri, ndi kubwezeretsa ulamuliro wa Chiyukireniya pamalire ake. Koma Kiev sanasunthirepo kanthu kuti adziwe kuti malo ake akuphatikizika, ndipo mbali ziwirizi zakhala zikuchitika kuyambira kale.
Mawu Final
Pulezidenti Obama ndi Putin anasinthanitsa zomwe zikanakhala zomaliza, zopondereza mawu pa mutu wa msonkhano wa Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ku Peru mwezi uno. Obama "adalimbikitsa Pulezidenti Putin kuti adzivomereze zofuna za Russia pamsonkhano wa Minsk," pamene woimira Russia ananena kuti amuna awiri "adandaula kuti sizingatheke kupita patsogolo ku Ukraine."
Monga momwe ndondomeko zakunja zakunja zikuyendera, komabe Chiyukireniya imbroglio ikhoza kupereka mwayi waukulu wotsuka zopindulitsa. Kuchita izi kumafuna mbali zonse ziwiri kuvomereza zolakwika zina ndikupeza njira zowonetsera kuti zisunge nkhope.
Mwamwayi, Pulezidenti wosankhidwa Trump wakhala akutsegulira njira yotereyi pofikira Putin panthawi yachisankho kuwonetseratu bwino kuti awononge Russia chifukwa cha kuwonjezereka kwa Crimea (yomwe idatsatira ndondomeko yovomerezeka mwachangu yomwe zotsatira zake zakhala zikusonyeza kuti 96 peresenti ya ovotera adafuna kuchoka ku Ukraine ndi kubwerera ku Russia).
Palinso zizindikiro zazing'ono zomwe zimapereka chiyembekezo. Chigamulo chochepa chogonjetsedwa chomwe chinasindikizidwa mu September adatsogoleredwa kumalo amodzi ndi asilikali a Chiyukireniya ndi pro-Russia akulekanitsa kuchokera kumudzi wawung'ono kum'mawa kwa Ukraine. Kuchotsedwa kwacho kunatsimikiziridwa ndi owona a bungwe la Organization for Security ndi Cooperation ku Ulaya (OSCE), phwando kuzilankhulo za Minsk. Pakalipano, Ukraine, Germany, France ndi Russia ali kugwira ntchito pamapangidwe atsopano kulimbikitsa kutha kwa moto.
Makhalidwe a Mtendere
Mu kuyankhulana kwa June 2015 ndi Charlie Rose, Putin anaika momveka bwino ndi zomveka popanga mgwirizano wa Minsk:
"Lero makamaka tikufunika kuti tigwirizane ndi mapangano onse omwe adachitika ku Minsk… Nthawi yomweyo, ndikufuna ndikulembereni. . . chidwi cha anzathu onse kuti sitingathe kuchita izi limodzi. Timamvanso chimodzimodzi, kubwerezedwa ngati mantra - kuti Russia iyenera kukopa kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Ukraine. Ife ndife. Komabe, ndizosatheka kuthetsa vutoli kudzera mwa zomwe timachita kumwera chakum'mawa kokha.
“Ziyenera kukhala ndi mphamvu kwa akuluakulu aboma ku Kiev, zomwe sizingatheke. Uwu ndi msewu womwe anzathu akumadzulo akuyenera kutenga - aku Europe ndi America. Tiyeni tigwire ntchito limodzi. … Tikukhulupirira kuti kuti tithetse vutoli tiyenera kukhazikitsa mapangano a Minsk, monga ndidanenera. Zinthu zakhazikitsidwe pandale ndizofunikira apa. Pali zingapo. . . .
"Loyamba ndikusintha kwamalamulo, ndipo mgwirizano wa Minsk ukunena momveka bwino: kupereka ufulu wodziyimira pawokha kapena, monga akunenera, kukhazikitsa mphamvu m'manja. . .
"Chinthu chachiwiri chomwe chiyenera kuchitidwa - lamuloli lidaperekedwa koyambirira pankhani yapadera ya. . . Luhansk ndi Donetsk, mayiko osadziwika, akuyenera kukhazikitsidwa. Idadutsa, koma osachitapo kanthu. Izi zimafunikira lingaliro la Supreme Rada - Nyumba Yamalamulo yaku Ukraine - yomwe imapezekanso m'mapangano a Minsk. . . .
“Chachitatu ndi lamulo lokhudza kukhululuka. Ndizosatheka kukhala ndi zokambirana zandale ndi anthu omwe akuwopsezedwa kuti azunzidwa. Ndipo pamapeto pake, akuyenera kukhazikitsa lamulo pazisankho zamatauni madera awa ndikukhala ndi zisankho zawo. Zonsezi zalembedwa mu mgwirizano wa Minsk. . . .
"Ndikubwereza, ndikofunikira tsopano kuti pakhale zokambirana zachindunji pakati pa Luhansk, Donetsk ndi Kiev - izi zikusoweka."
Tsogolo la Crimea
Pakhomo lirilonse lidzafunikanso kuyanjanitsa ku Crimea, zomwe Putin adalonjeza kuti sadzasiya.
Monga Ray McGovern, mtsogoleri wakale wa CIA wa ku Russia, wanena, kuwonjezereka kwa Crimea kunaphwanya pangano limene Russia anapanga ku 1994 - pamodzi ndi Great Britain ndi United States - "kulemekeza ufulu ndi ufulu ndi malire omwe alipo kale a Ukraine," monga chofunikira kwambiri ku Ukraine kusiya zida zake za nyukiliya. Inde, United States ndi EU zinaphwanya kale chigwirizano chomwechi pochirikiza boma ndi boma la chisankho.
McGovern adatchulanso zina "zowonjezerapo, kuphatikizapo mantha pakati pa anthu a ku Crimea chifukwa cha kuthamangitsidwa kosagwirizana ndi malamulo kwa pulezidenti wa Ukraine kungatanthauze kwa iwo, komanso ku Moscow komwe kulibe vuto la NATO kulanda malo akuluakulu a Russia, komanso madzi otentha okha, ku Sevastopol ku Crimea. . ”
Pochirikiza kulembedwa, akuluakulu a ku Russia ndi a Crimea ananenanso zachangu Referendum yomwe inachitikira ku Crimea mu March 2014, yomwe inachititsa kuti 96 peresenti yothandizira kuyanjananso ndi Russia, ubale kuyambira m'zaka za zana la khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu. Zotsatira zolemba za chi Crimea, yomwe inachitidwa ndi makampani a kumadzulo, yatsimikiziranso kuti ikugwirizana ndi referendum ya 2014 yobwerera ku Russia. Koma referendum inalibe owona dziko lonse ndipo sichivomerezedwa ndi United States ndi mayiko ena akumadzulo.
Kudzudzula cholembera mu mawu okweza za "ulamuliro wa malamulo" ndi kudzipereka kwa America ku mfundo zapadziko lonse, Purezidenti Obama adasiyanitsa Crimea ndi Kosovo, yomwe NATO inakakamizika kuchoka ku Serbia ku 1999.
Obama adati, "Kosovo inachoka ku Serbia pambuyo pa chiwonetsero cha bungwe la mayiko, koma mogwirizana ndi United Nations komanso oyandikana nawo a Kosovo. Palibe chilichonse chomwe chinayandikira ku Crimea. "
Kwenikweni, palibe chimodzi cha izo chinayandikira kuchitika ku Kosovo, mwina. Nkhani ya Obama inali nthano, koma zatsimikiziranso kuti mphamvu zoterezi zimaperekedwa ndi referenda wotchuka, monga awo ku Great Britain pa ufulu wa Scottish kapena Brexit.
Komabe, monga mbali yothetsera mavuto aakulu ku Ukraine, olemba mabaibulo a Minsk amavomereza kugwirizanitsa chigamulo china ku Crimea, poyang'aniridwa ndi mayiko onse kuti aone ngati akukhala pansi pa ulamuliro wa Russian kapena kubwerera ku Ukraine.
Kuti apeze Russia kugula, United States ndi mabungwe ake a ku Ulaya ayenera kuvomereza kukweza zilango ngati Moscow amakhala ndi referendum ndi zina za Minsk mogwirizana. Ayeneranso kuvomereza kuti asamangidwe ku Ukraine kupita ku NATO, tchimo loyambirira limene linafesa mbewu za mavuto pakati pa Russia ndi Kumadzulo. Russia, inenso, ingavomereze kuwononga malire ake ndi Ukraine.
Zosokoneza Kukhazikika
Pulezidenti Putin adalengeza kufuna kwawo kuleka njira zingapo, kuphatikizapo kuwombera mkulu wa antchito ake, Sergei Ivanov, ndi kulandira kukhalapo kwa owona zida zochokera ku OSCE kuyang'anira mgwirizano wa Minsk.
Koma zopinga zazikulu sizikulepheretse kupita patsogolo. Chimodzi ndi Purezidenti Petro Poroshenko akudumpha mu nkhope ya otsutsa ku Minsk mogwirizana ndi Chiyukireniya. Kiev iyenera kupatsidwa chisankho cholimba: ikani nokha, kapena kuti musamalekerere ngati mukufuna kupitiriza thandizo lachuma kuchokera ku United States ndi Western Europe. Obama akulamulira mwakachetechete analimbikitsa boma la Poroshenko kuti lilemekeze mgwirizano wa Minsk, koma silinayikepo mano pambuyo pake.
Chinthu china chachikulu chimene chimapangitsa kuti anthu azikhala ndi zida zankhanza kuchokera ku zida zankhondo zam'madera a kumadzulo kwa West, zomwe zimafuna kuti dziko la Ukraine lichite nkhondo ndi Russia. Zitsanzo zazikulu zikuphatikizapo bungwe la State Department lomwe limapanga malamulo ku Ukraine, Victoria Nuland; yemwe anali mkulu wa bungwe la NATO, Gen. Philip Breedlove, amene anakhalapo wathuwu chifukwa chopereka machenjezo okhudza nkhondo za ku Russia; Mtsogoleri wa Komiti Yoyang'anira Zida za Senate John McCain; ndi Stephen Hadley, Raytheon membala wa membala ndi mlangizi wakale wa chitetezo cha dziko kwa Purezidenti George W. Bush, yemwe mipando Orwellian-dzina lake United States Institute for Peace.
Koma Trump adzakhala ndi mphamvu yaikulu ngati mtsogoleri wamkulu kukana uphungu wawo ndi kukhazikitsa njira yatsopano kwa ndondomeko ya NATO ku Ukraine ndi Russia kawirikawiri. Iye ali ndi phindu lililonse potsutsa nkhondo ya ndale ndi Moscow.
Wothandizana naye ku Kremlin adzasintha kwambiri mwayi wake wopanga zochitika ku Middle East, kupeza njira yotulukira ku Afghanistan, ndi kulamulira China.
Miyezi ingapo yotsatira iyenera kutiuza ngati Trump ili ndi ufulu, malingaliro, ndi chidziwitso kuchita zabwino.
