Nkhondo ya Ukraine Ikuwoneka kuchokera ku Global South

Wolemba Krishen Mehta, Komiti yaku America ya mgwirizano wa US-Russia, February 23, 2023

Mu Okutobala 2022, pafupifupi miyezi isanu ndi itatu nkhondo itayambika ku Ukraine, University of Cambridge ku UK inagwirizanitsa kafukufuku amene anafunsa anthu a m’mayiko 137 za maganizo awo ponena za mayiko a Kumadzulo, Russia, ndi China. Zotsatira mu maphunziro ophatikizana ndi zamphamvu zokwanira kuti zifune chidwi chathu.

• Mwa anthu 6.3 biliyoni omwe amakhala kunja kwa Kumadzulo, 66% amamva bwino ndi Russia, ndipo 70% amamva bwino ndi China.

• 75% ya omwe anafunsidwa ku South Asia, 68% ya omwe anafunsidwa  mu Francophone Africa, ndipo 62% ya omwe anafunsidwa ku Southeast Asia akuwonetsa kuti ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza Russia.

• Malingaliro a anthu aku Russia akadali abwino ku Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, ndi Vietnam.

Zomwe zapezedwazi zadzetsa kudabwa komanso mkwiyo kumayiko akumadzulo. Ndizovuta kuti atsogoleri amalingaliro aku Western amvetsetse kuti magawo awiri mwa atatu a anthu padziko lapansi sakugwirizana ndi mayiko akumadzulo pankhondoyi. Komabe, ndikukhulupirira kuti pali zifukwa zisanu zomwe Global South sakutenga mbali ya Kumadzulo. Ndikukambirana zifukwa izi m'nkhani yochepa yomwe ili pansipa.

1. Dziko la Global South silikhulupirira kuti mayiko akumadzulo amamvetsetsa kapena kumvera chisoni mavuto ake.

Nduna ya Zachilendo ya ku India, S. Jaishankar, inafotokoza mwachidule zimenezi m’mafunso aposachedwapa kuti: “Ulaya ayenera kuchoka m’malingaliro akuti mavuto a ku Ulaya ndi mavuto a dziko, koma mavuto a dziko lapansi sindiwo a ku Ulaya. Mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene akukumana ndi mavuto ambiri, kuyambira chifukwa cha mliriwu, kukwera mtengo kwa ngongole, ndi vuto la nyengo lomwe likuwononga chilengedwe, mpaka paumphaŵi, njala, chilala, ndi kukwera mtengo kwa magetsi. Komabe a Kumadzulo sananene za kuopsa kwazinthu zambirizi, ngakhale akuumirira kuti Global South igwirizane nawo povomereza Russia.

Mliri wa Covid ndi chitsanzo chabwino. Ngakhale a Global South adachonderera mobwerezabwereza kuti agawane zanzeru pa katemera ndi cholinga chopulumutsa miyoyo, palibe dziko lakumadzulo lomwe lalola kutero. Africa idakali dziko lopanda katemera padziko lonse lapansi mpaka pano. Mayiko aku Africa ali ndi kuthekera kopanga katemerayu, koma popanda luntha lofunikira, amakhalabe odalira kutulutsa kunja.

Koma thandizo linachokera ku Russia, China, ndi India. Algeria idakhazikitsa pulogalamu yotemera mu Januware 2021 italandira katemera wake woyamba wa Sputnik V waku Russia. Egypt idayamba katemera atalandira katemera waku China wa Sinopharm pafupifupi nthawi yomweyo, pomwe South Africa idagula Mlingo wa AstraZeneca miliyoni kuchokera ku Serum Institute of India. Ku Argentina, Sputnik idakhala msana wa pulogalamu ya katemera wa dziko. Izi zonse zidachitika pomwe Kumadzulo kumagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zake kugula milingo mamiliyoni ambiri pasadakhale, ndiye nthawi zambiri kumawononga ikatha. Uthenga wopita ku Global South unali womveka - mliri m'maiko anu ndi vuto lanu, osati lathu.

2. Nkhani yokhudza mbiri yakale: ndani adayima pati nthawi ya utsamunda komanso pambuyo pa ufulu wodzilamulira?

Mayiko ambiri a ku Latin America, Africa, ndi Asia amaona nkhondo ya ku Ukraine m’njira yosiyana ndi ya Kumadzulo. Iwo akuwona maulamuliro awo akale atsamunda akusonkhanitsidwa kukhala mamembala a mgwirizano wa azungu. Mgwirizanowu - makamaka, mamembala a European Union ndi NATO kapena ogwirizana kwambiri ndi US kudera la Asia-Pacific - amapanga mayiko omwe adavomereza Russia. Mosiyana ndi zimenezo, maiko ambiri a ku Asia, ndi pafupifupi maiko onse a ku Middle East, Africa, ndi Latin America, ayesa kukhalabe paubwenzi ndi onse Russia ndi Kumadzulo, kukana zilango motsutsana ndi Russia. Kodi izi zingakhale chifukwa chakuti amakumbukira mbiri yawo kumapeto kwa ndondomeko za atsamunda akumadzulo, zowawa zomwe akukhala nazo koma zomwe Kumadzulo kwaiwala?

Nelson Mandela nthawi zambiri ankanena kuti ndi thandizo la Soviet Union, zonse zamakhalidwe komanso zakuthupi, zomwe zinathandiza kulimbikitsa anthu a ku South Africa kuti agwetse ulamuliro wa tsankho. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, dziko la Russia limaonedwabe bwino m’mayiko ambiri a ku Africa. Ndipo pamene mayiko ameneŵa analandira ufulu wodzilamulira, anali Soviet Union amene anawathandiza, ngakhale kuti anali ndi chuma chochepa. Damu la Aswan ku Egypt, lomwe linamalizidwa mu 1971, linapangidwa ndi Hydro Project Institute ya ku Moscow ndipo ndalama zambiri zimaperekedwa ndi Soviet Union. Bhilai Steel Plant, imodzi mwama projekiti akuluakulu oyamba ku India omwe adangodziyimira pawokha, idakhazikitsidwa ndi USSR mu 1959.

Mayiko enanso anapindula ndi thandizo la ndale ndi zachuma loperekedwa ndi dziko limene kale linali Soviet Union, kuphatikizapo Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, ndi Mozambique. Pa February 18, 2023, pa msonkhano wa African Union ku Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, nduna ya zakunja ya Uganda, Jeje Odongo, ananena kuti: “Tinalamulidwa ndi atsamunda ndipo tinakhululukira amene anatilamulira. Tsopano atsamunda akutipempha kuti tikhale adani a Russia, omwe sanatilamulirepo. Ndi chilungamo? Osati kwa ife. Adani awo ndi adani awo. Anzathu ndi anzathu.”

Moyenera kapena molakwa, dziko la Russia lamakono limawonedwa ndi maiko ambiri ku Global South kukhala woloŵa m’malo mwa dziko lomwe kale linali Soviet Union. Pokumbukira mwachidwi thandizo la USSR, tsopano amaona Russia m'njira yapadera komanso yabwino. Poganizira mbiri yowawa ya utsamunda, tingawaimbe mlandu?

3. Nkhondo ya ku Ukraine ikuwoneka ndi Global South makamaka ponena za tsogolo la Ulaya osati tsogolo la dziko lonse lapansi.

Mbiri ya Nkhondo Yozizira yaphunzitsa mayiko amene akutukuka kumene kuti kuloŵa m’mikangano yaulamuliro kumabweretsa mavuto aakulu koma kumabweretsa madalitso ochepa, ngati alipo. Zotsatira zake, amawona kuti nkhondo ya proxy ya Ukraine ndiyomwe imayang'ana tsogolo la chitetezo cha ku Europe kuposa tsogolo la dziko lonse lapansi. Malinga ndi dziko la Global South, nkhondo ya ku Ukraine ikuwoneka ngati yosokoneza mtengo kwambiri pazovuta zake zomwe zimakhala zovuta kwambiri. Izi zikuphatikizapo kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta, kukwera kwa zakudya, kukwera mtengo kwa ntchito za ngongole, ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu, zonse zomwe mayiko a kumadzulo kwa Russia akulangidwa nazo zakula kwambiri.

Kafukufuku waposachedwapa wofalitsidwa ndi bungwe la Nature Energy akuti anthu okwana 140 miliyoni akhoza kukanthidwa mu umphawi wadzaoneni chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi komwe kunaoneka m’chaka chathachi. Mitengo yamagetsi yokwera imakhudzanso mabilu amagetsi - imatsogoleranso kutsika kwamitengo yokwera pamakina ogulitsira komanso zinthu za ogula, kuphatikiza chakudya ndi zofunika zina. Kukwera kwamitengo kumeneku kumapweteka kwambiri mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene kuposa Kumadzulo.

Kumadzulo kungathe kulimbikitsa nkhondoyo "malinga ngati itenga." Iwo ali ndi ndalama komanso misika yayikulu kuti achite izi, ndipo ndithudi amakhalabe okhazikika kwambiri m'tsogolo la chitetezo cha ku Ulaya. Koma Global South ilibe mwayi wofanana, ndipo nkhondo ya tsogolo la chitetezo ku Ulaya ikhoza kuwononga chitetezo cha dziko lonse lapansi. Global South ikuchita mantha kuti Kumadzulo sikutsata zokambirana zomwe zingapangitse nkhondoyi kutha msanga, kuyambira ndi mwayi wosowa mu December 2021, pamene Russia inakonza mapangano okonzanso chitetezo ku Ulaya omwe akanatha kuletsa nkhondo koma anakanidwa ndi Kumadzulo. Zokambirana zamtendere za Epulo 2022 ku Istanbul zidakanidwanso ndi azungu mwa zina kuti "afooke" Russia. Tsopano, dziko lonse lapansi - koma makamaka mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene - akulipira mtengo wa kuwukira komwe atolankhani aku Western amakonda kutcha "chosavomerezeka" koma chomwe chikanatha kupewedwa, komanso chomwe Global South yakhala ikuwona ngati yakomweko osati mkangano wapadziko lonse.

4. Chuma cha dziko lapansi sichikulamulidwanso ndi Amereka kapena kutsogozedwa ndi Kumadzulo. Global South tsopano ili ndi njira zina.

Mayiko angapo ku Global South akuchulukirachulukira kuti tsogolo lawo likugwirizana ndi mayiko omwe salinso m'gawo la Kumadzulo. Kaya malingalirowa akuwonetsa malingaliro olondola a kusuntha kwa mphamvu kapena malingaliro olakalaka ndi funso lozama, kotero tiyeni tiwone ma metrics ena.

Gawo la US pazotulutsa padziko lonse lapansi zidatsika kuchoka pa 21% mu 1991 mpaka 15% mu 2021, pomwe gawo la China lidakwera kuchoka pa 4% mpaka 19% nthawi yomweyo. China ndiye bwenzi lalikulu kwambiri pazamalonda padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo GDP yake pakugula mphamvu yoposa ya US. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India, and South Africa) inali ndi GDP mu 2021 ya $42 trilioni, poyerekeza ndi $41 triliyoni mu G7 yotsogozedwa ndi US. Chiŵerengero chawo cha 3.2 biliyoni chikuposa kuŵirikiza nthaŵi 4.5 chiŵerengero cha anthu ophatikizidwa m’maiko a G7, chimene chili pa 700 miliyoni.

A BRICS sakuika zilango ku Russia kapena kupereka zida ku mbali yotsutsa. Russia ndi m'modzi mwa omwe amapereka mphamvu ndi chakudya ku Global South, pomwe China's Belt and Road Initiative ndiyomwe imathandizira kwambiri ntchito zandalama ndi zomangamanga. Pankhani ya ndalama, chakudya, mphamvu, ndi zomangamanga, Global South iyenera kudalira kwambiri China ndi Russia kuposa Kumadzulo. Dziko la Global South likuwonanso bungwe la Shanghai Cooperation Organisation likukulirakulira, maiko ambiri akufuna kulowa nawo BRICS, ndipo mayiko ena tsopano akugulitsa ndalama zomwe zimawachotsa ku dola, Yuro, kapena Kumadzulo. Pakadali pano, maiko ena ku Europe ali pachiwopsezo cha deindustrialization chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwamagetsi. Izi zikuwonetsa chiwopsezo chachuma Kumadzulo chomwe sichinawonekere nkhondo isanayambe. Popeza kuti mayiko amene akutukuka kumene ali ndi thayo la kuika zofuna za nzika zawo patsogolo, kodi n’zodabwitsa kuti akuona kuti tsogolo lawo likugwirizana kwambiri ndi mayiko akunja kwa Kumadzulo?

5. "Malamulo okhazikika padziko lonse lapansi" akutaya kudalirika komanso kuchepa.

"Malamulo okhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi" ndiye linga laufulu pambuyo pa Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse, koma mayiko ambiri ku Global South amawona kuti adapangidwa ndi azungu ndikukakamiza mayiko ena. Ochepa ngati mayiko omwe si a Kumadzulo adasainapo dongosololi. Kumwera sikutsutsana ndi dongosolo lokhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo, koma ndi zomwe zili mu malamulowa monga momwe azungu amalingalirira.

Koma wina ayeneranso kufunsa, kodi malamulo okhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi amagwiranso ntchito ku West?

Kwa zaka makumi ambiri tsopano, ambiri ku Global South awona Kumadzulo kukhala ndi njira yake ndi dziko popanda kukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kusewera ndi malamulo. Mayiko angapo adalandidwa mwakufuna kwawo, makamaka popanda chilolezo cha United Nations Security Council. Izi zikuphatikizapo Yugoslavia wakale, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, ndi Syria. Kodi maikowo anaukiridwa kapena kuwonongedwa pa “malamulo” otani, ndipo kodi nkhondozo zinali zosonkhezera kapena zosasonkhezeredwa? Julian Assange akuzunzika m'ndende ndipo Ed Snowden akadali ku ukapolo, chifukwa chokhala ndi kulimba mtima (kapena mwina kulimba mtima) kuwulula chowonadi kumbuyo kwa izi ndi zofananira.

Ngakhale masiku ano, zilango zoperekedwa m’maiko oposa 40 ndi a Kumadzulo zimadzetsa mavuto aakulu ndi kuvutika. Ndi pansi pa malamulo ati apadziko lonse lapansi kapena "ndondomeko yozikidwa pa malamulo" pomwe Azungu adagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zake zachuma kuti akhazikitse zilango izi? Chifukwa chiyani chuma cha Afghanistan chikadali chozizira m'mabanki aku Western pomwe dziko likukumana ndi njala ndi njala? Chifukwa chiyani golide waku Venezuela akadali akapolo ku UK pomwe anthu aku Venezuela akukhala moyo wocheperako? Ndipo ngati kuwulula kwa Sy Hersh kuli koona, ndi pansi pa 'dongosolo lokhazikitsidwa ndi malamulo' pomwe West adawononga mapaipi a Nord Stream?

Kusintha kwa paradigm kukuwoneka kuti kukuchitika. Tikuchoka kudziko lolamulidwa ndi Azungu kupita kudziko lamitundu yambiri. Nkhondo ku Ukraine yawonetsa kwambiri kusiyana kwa mayiko komwe kukuchititsa kusinthaku. Mwa zina chifukwa cha mbiri yake, komanso chifukwa cha zochitika zachuma zomwe zikuchitika, Global South ikuwona dziko lamitundu yambiri ngati zotsatira zabwino, zomwe mawu ake amatha kumveka.

Pulezidenti Kennedy anamaliza nkhani yake ya ku yunivesite ya ku America mu 1963 ndi mawu otsatirawa: “Tiyenera kuchita mbali yathu kuti tipange dziko lamtendere kumene ofooka ali otetezeka ndipo amphamvu ali olungama. Sitikhala opanda chochita pamaso pa ntchitoyo kapena opanda chiyembekezo chifukwa cha kupambana kwake. Podzidalira komanso mopanda mantha, tiyenera kuyesetsa kupeza njira yamtendere. " Njira imeneyi yopezera mtendere inali vuto lathu mu 1963, ndipo idakali yovuta kwa ife lero. Mawu amtendere, kuphatikiza a Global South, akuyenera kumveka.

Krishen Mehta ndi membala wa Board of the American Committee for US Russia Accord, ndi Senior Global Justice Fellow ku Yale University.