US ndi UK's Submarine Deal Crosss Nuclear Red Lines ndi Australia

By Prabir Purkayastha, World BEYOND War, Marichi 17, 2023

Mgwirizano waposachedwa wa Australia, US, ndi UK $ 368 biliyoni wogula zida za nyukiliya watchulidwa ndi Paul Keating, yemwe anali nduna yayikulu yaku Australia, ngati. “mchitidwe woipitsitsa m’mbiri yonse.” Ikukakamiza Australia kuti igule sitima zapamadzi zokhala ndi zida zanyukiliya zomwe zidzaperekedwe kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 2040. Izi zidzatengera mapangidwe atsopano a zida za nyukiliya zomwe zidzapangidwe ndi UK. Pakadali pano, kuyambira 2030s, "podikira chivomerezo kuchokera ku US Congress, United States ikufuna kugulitsa Australia sitima zapamadzi zitatu zaku Virginia, zomwe zitha kugulitsanso zina ziwiri ngati pangafunike ” (Kugwirizana kwa Trilateral Australia-UK-US pa Sitima Zapamadzi Zoyendetsedwa ndi Nyukiliya, Marichi 13, 2023; kutsindika kwanga). Malinga ndi tsatanetsatane, zikuwoneka kuti mgwirizanowu umapangitsa Australia kuti igule ku US zombo zisanu ndi zitatu zatsopano zanyukiliya, kuti ziperekedwe kuchokera ku 2040s mpaka kumapeto kwa 2050s. Ngati sitima zapamadzi za nyukiliya zinali zofunika kwambiri pachitetezo cha Australia, chomwe inaphwanya mgwirizano wake wapansi pamadzi woyendetsedwa ndi dizilo ndi France, mgwirizanowu ulibe mayankho odalirika.

Kwa iwo omwe akhala akutsatira nkhani za kufalikira kwa nyukiliya, mgwirizanowu ukukweza mbendera yofiira yosiyana. Ngati ukadaulo wa nyukiliya wamadzi am'madzi ndi zida za uranium (zolemera kwambiri) zimagawidwa ndi Australia, ndikuphwanya Pangano la Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) komwe Australia idasainira ngati mphamvu yosakhala ya nyukiliya. Ngakhale kuperekedwa kwa zida za nyukiliya zotere ndi US ndi UK kungapangitse kuphwanya NPT. Izi zili choncho ngakhale sitima zapamadzi zoterozo sizimanyamula zida za nyukiliya koma wamba monga momwe tafotokozera m’panganoli.

Nanga ndichifukwa chiyani Australia idakana mgwirizano wake ndi France, yomwe inali yogula sitima zapamadzi 12 za dizilo France pamtengo wa $67 biliyoni, gawo laling'ono la ndalama zake zokwana madola 368 biliyoni ndi US? Kodi zimapindula chiyani, ndipo US imapindula chiyani pokwiyitsa France, m'modzi mwa ogwirizana nawo a NATO?

Kuti timvetse, tiyenera kuona momwe US ​​akuyang'ana pa geostrategy, ndi momwe Maso Asanu-US, UK, Canada, Australia, ndi New Zealand-akugwirizana ndi chithunzi chachikulu ichi. Mwachiwonekere, US imakhulupirira kuti maziko a mgwirizano wa NATO ndi United States, United Kingdom, ndi Canada ku Atlantic ndi United States, United Kingdom, ndi Australia kwa Indo-Pacific. Ena onse ogwirizana nawo, ogwirizana ndi NATO ku Europe ndi Japan ndi South Korea ku East ndi South Asia, ali pafupi ndi maziko a Maso Asanu. Ichi ndichifukwa chake United States idalolera kukhumudwitsa France kuti ipange mgwirizano ndi Australia.

Kodi US ikupeza chiyani mumgwirizanowu? Pa lonjezo la zombo zisanu ndi zitatu za nyukiliya zomwe zidzaperekedwe ku Australia zaka ziwiri kapena makumi anayi pansi pamzerewu, US imapeza mwayi wopita ku Australia kuti igwiritsidwe ntchito ngati maziko othandizira zombo zake zankhondo, asilikali a ndege, komanso asilikali a US. The mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi White House ndi, "Kumayambiriro kwa 2027, United Kingdom ndi United States akukonzekera kukhazikitsa kukhalapo kozungulira kwa sitima yapamadzi ya ku UK Astute class komanso mpaka anayi a US Virginia class submarines ku HMAS. Kutsitsa pafupi ndi Perth, Western Australia.” Kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa mawu oti "kukhalapo kozungulira" ndikupereka Australia tsamba la mkuyu kuti silikupereka US malo ankhondo apanyanja, chifukwa izi zitha kuphwanya udindo wanthawi yayitali wa Australia wopanda maziko akunja pa nthaka yake. Mwachiwonekere, magulu onse othandizira omwe amafunikira pakusintha kotere ndi zomwe gulu lankhondo lakunja lili nalo, chifukwa chake azigwira ntchito ngati maziko aku US.

Kodi cholinga cha mgwirizano wa AUKUS ndi ndani? Izi zikuwonekera m'zolemba zonse pa nkhaniyi ndi zomwe atsogoleri onse a AUKUS adanena: ndi China. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, izi ndizomwe zili mu ndondomeko ya China ndi South China Sea ndi Taiwanese Strait monga zigawo zazikulu zomwe zimatsutsidwa ndi nyanja. Kuyika zombo zapamadzi zaku US kuphatikiza zida zake zanyukiliya zokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya kumapangitsa Australia kukhala dziko lotsogola pazolinga zaposachedwa za US zokhala ndi China. Kuphatikiza apo, zimapangitsa kuti mayiko ambiri akum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia asakhale ndi mpikisano woterewu wa US ndi China womwe ukuchitikira ku South China Sea.

Ngakhale kulimbikitsa kwa US kuti alembe Australia ngati dziko lakutsogolo motsutsana ndi China ndizomveka, zomwe ndizovuta kuzimvetsa Kupindula kwa Australia kuchokera kumayendedwe otere. China sikuti ndi yomwe imatumiza kunja kwambiri katundu waku Australia, komanso wogulitsa wamkulu kwambiri. Mwanjira ina, ngati Australia ikuda nkhawa ndi chitetezo cha malonda ake kudzera ku South China Sea kuchokera ku China, zambiri zamalondazi zili ndi China. Nanga bwanji China ingakhale wamisala mokwanira kuti iwononge malonda ake ndi Australia? Kwa US ndizomveka kupeza kontinenti yonse, Australia, kuti ikhale ndi mphamvu zake pafupi kwambiri ndi China kuposa 8,000-9,000 mailosi ku US Ngakhale ili kale ndi maziko ku Hawaii ndi Guam ku Pacific Ocean, Australia ndi Japan amapereka. anangula awiri, wina kumpoto ndi wina kumwera m'chigawo cha kum'mawa kwa Pacific Ocean. Masewerawa ndi masewera achikale osungira, omwe US ​​adasewera ndi NATO, Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), ndi mgwirizano wankhondo waku Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) pambuyo pa Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse.

Vuto lomwe US ​​ili nalo lero ndikuti ngakhale mayiko ngati India, omwe ali ndi vuto ndi China, sakulembetsa ndi US mumgwirizano wankhondo. Makamaka, monga US tsopano mu nkhondo zachuma ndi chiwerengero cha mayiko, osati Russia ndi China zokha, monga Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, ndi Somalia. Ngakhale kuti India anali wokonzeka kulowa nawo ku Quad-US, Australia, Japan, ndi India-ndikuchita nawo masewera olimbitsa thupi, adachoka ku Quad kukhala mgwirizano wankhondo. Izi zikufotokozera kukakamizidwa kwa Australia kuti agwirizane ndi US pankhondo, makamaka ku Southeast Asia.

Ikulepherabe kufotokoza zomwe zilimo ku Australia. Ngakhale sitima zapamadzi za nyukiliya zisanu za gulu la Virginia zomwe Australia atha kuzipeza ndizovomerezeka ndi US Congress. Amene amatsatira ndale US amadziwa kuti US panopa pangano sangathe; silinavomereze pangano limodzi lokhudza nkhani za kutentha kwa dziko kufika pa lamulo la nyanja m’zaka zaposachedwapa. Ena asanu ndi atatu ndi abwino zaka 20-40; amene akudziwa momwe dziko lingawonekere patali kwambiri.

Bwanji, ngati chitetezo cha panyanja chinali cholinga chake, Australia idasankha iffy nyukiliya mgwirizano wapansi pamadzi ndi US chifukwa cha kuwombera kotsimikizika kwa sitima zapamadzi zaku France? Izi ndi funso lomwe Malcolm Turnbull ndi a Paul Keating, omwe anali Prime Minister wakale a chipani cha Australian Labor Party, adafunsa. Ndizomveka kokha ngati timvetsetsa kuti Australia tsopano imadziwona ngati cog mu gudumu la US kuderali. Ndipo ndi masomphenya a mphamvu zapamadzi zaku US m'dera lomwe lero Australia akugawana. Masomphenyawa ndi oti maulamuliro a atsamunda ndi omwe kale anali atsamunda-G7-AUKUS-ayenera kukhala omwe amapanga malamulo a dongosolo ladziko lonse lapansi. Ndipo kumbuyo kwa zokambirana zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi nkhonya yotumizidwa ndi US, NATO, ndi AUKUS. Izi ndi zomwe mgwirizano wa nyukiliya wa ku Australia ukutanthauza.