Nthaŵi zonse ndakhala wokondwa kuthandizira pa zokambirana za mtendere, zomwe zakhala zimanyalanyazidwa kaŵirikaŵiri m’mikangano yapakati pa mayiko ndi mayiko. Koma zikuwonekeratu kuti msonkhano wapadziko lonse ku Syria umene unachitikira msonkhano wake woyamba ku Vienna pa October 30 ndi msonkhano wachinyengo womwe sungathe kupereka zokambirana zamtendere, komanso kuti olamulira a Obama adadziwa bwino kuyambira pachiyambi.
Ulamulirowo unkanena kuti dziko la Iran linaitanidwa kuti lichite nawo msonkhanowo, mosiyana ndi msonkhano wakale wa United Nations wothandizidwa ndi United Nations ku Syria mu January ndi February 2014. Msonkhano watsoka umenewo unali utachotsa Iran pakuumirira kwa United States ndi ma Sunni ake. ngakhale kuti mayiko angapo opanda mphamvu yopereka chilichonse kuti akhazikitse mtendere - komanso Vatican - anali m'gulu la anthu 40 omwe si a Syria omwe adaitanidwa.
Kutenga nawo gawo kwa Iran ku msonkhano wa Vienna ndikuyimira gawo labwino. Komabe, msonkhanowu udadziwika ndi zopusa kwambiri: palibe m'modzi mwa maphwando aku Syria omwe adaitanidwa. Zokambirana za 2014 osachepera zinali ndi oimira boma la Assad ndi ena otsutsa zida. Tanthauzo lodziwikiratu lachigamulochi ndikuti omvera akunja a maphwando a ku Syria - makamaka Russia, Iran ndi Saudi Arabia - akuyembekezeka kusunthira ku ndondomeko ya mgwirizano ndikugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zawo ndi makasitomala kukakamiza kuvomereza mgwirizanowo.
Vietnam model
Lingaliro lodumphira maphwando aku Syria kunkhondoyo pokhala ndi mphamvu zakunja kukambilana pangano lamtendere m'malo mwa makasitomala ndilomveka bwino. Mlandu wapamwamba kwambiri wamakonzedwe otere ndi kukambirana kwa US pa Pangano la Paris ndi North Vietnamese mu Januware 1973 kuti athetse nkhondo yaku US ku Vietnam. Kudalira kwathunthu kwa boma la Thieu mothandizidwa ndi US komanso kulemera kwa asitikali aku US ku Vietnam zidapangitsa kuti Thieu avomereze dongosololi.
Koma ziyenera kudziŵikanso kuti makonzedwewo sanathetse nkhondoyo. Ulamuliro wa Thieu sunali wofunitsitsa kutsata kuyimitsa moto kapena kuthetsa ndale, ndipo nkhondoyo idapitilira zaka zina ziwiri chigawenga chachikulu chaku North Vietnam chisanathe mu 1975.
Chofunikira kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito kwachitsanzo ku Nkhondo yaku Syria ndikusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa chidwi cha US pakukambirana pamutu wa kasitomala wake waku Vietnamese komanso zokonda zaku Iran ndi Russia pankhani ya boma la Syria. United States inali kukambirana kuti ichoke pankhondo yosankha yomwe idayambitsa, monga Iraq, pokhulupirira molakwika kuti mphamvu yake yayikulu idatsimikizira kuwongolera zinthu komanso momwe idakakamizika kutha chifukwa chazovuta zandale zapanyumba. Iran, kumbali ina, ikulimbana ndi nkhondo ku Syria yomwe imawona kuti ndi yofunika kwambiri pachitetezo chake. Ndipo zofuna za ndale ndi chitetezo ku Russia ku Syria sizingakhale zomveka bwino, koma zilibenso zolimbikitsa kuvomereza kuthetsa komwe kungawononge chigonjetso chauchigawenga ku Syria.
Kadamsana wa otsutsa 'wapakati'
Chiyembekezo chopereka magulu ankhondo a Anti-Assad m'malo okhalamo ndizovuta kwambiri. Ngati magulu otsutsa omwe amathandizidwa ndi US omwe akuyang'anizana ndi boma la Syria ndi ogwirizana nawo akunja ali ndi mphamvu zokwanira zowopseza boma likhoza kukhala cholinga chokambirana zamtendere. Boma la Obama layesa kupanga kuganiza kuti magulu ankhondo "odziletsa" - kutanthauza omwe ali okonzeka kugwira ntchito ndi United States - ndi omwe amatsutsa kwambiri boma la Assad. Zowona, komabe, magulu "odziletsa" amenewo adatengeka kapena agwirizana ndi a jihadists a al-Nusra Front ndi ogwirizana nawo.
Kusintha kwakukulu kumeneku kwa chikhalidwe cha zida zotsutsana ndi Assad kunaonekera koyamba mu September 2013. Apa ndi pamene magulu atatu akuluakulu achisilamu "odzisunga" adajowina mosayembekezeka ndi ogwirizana ndi al-Nusra Front motsutsana ndi Syrian National Coalition, yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ku Doha mu Novembala 2012 mokakamizidwa ndi United States ndi ogwirizana nawo a Gulf.
Kusintha kwa jihadist pankhondo yolimbana ndi boma la Assad kudakula pakati pa Novembara 2014 ndi Marichi 2015 pomwe Syrian Revolutionaries Front ndi Harakat al-Hazm magulu awiri, magulu awiri opanduka omwe amapeza zida kuchokera ku CIA kapena Saudis, adagwidwa ndipo makamaka adagwidwa ndi al-Nusra Front.
Kusintha kumeneku kuli ndi tanthauzo lodziwikiratu pa kuthekera kwa kutha kwa zokambirana. Pamsonkhano wa UN Lakhdar Brahimi ku Geneva II mu Januware 2014, magulu otsutsa okhawo omwe anali patebulopo anali omwe akuimiridwa ndi Syrian National Coalition yothandizidwa ndi US, yomwe palibe amene adayiwona mozama ngati ikuyimira chiwopsezo chankhondo ku boma. Osowa pamsonkhanowo ndi omwe amadzitcha okha Islamic State komanso al-Qaeda chilolezo ku Syria, al-Nusra Front ndi ogwirizana nawo, omwe adayimira chiwopsezo chotere.
Kudana kwa Nusra pazokambirana
Koma Asilamu a Islamic State kapena Asilamu otsogozedwa ndi Nusra-Front sanachite chidwi ndi pang'ono pamsonkhano wamtendere. Mtsogoleri wa gulu lankhondo la Islamic Front, lomwe limayendetsedwa ndi mnzake wapamtima wa al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, adalengeza kuti adzalingalira kutenga nawo mbali kwa gulu la zigawenga lililonse pazokambirana zamtendere ngati "chiwembu".
Chotani Boma la Obama latero ikufuna kuwona kutuluka ku msonkhano wa Vienna ndi "mapu amisewu" a kusintha kwa mphamvu. Boma lafotokoza momveka bwino kuti likufuna kusunga mabungwe a boma la Syria, kuphatikiza gulu lankhondo la Syria. Koma gulu la Islamic State ndi gulu lotsogozedwa ndi al-Qaeda ndi magulu achipembedzo achi Sunni omwe sadabise cholinga chawo cholowa m'malo mwa boma la Assad ndi dziko lachisilamu lomwe lilibe chotsalira cha zida zomwe zilipo kale.
Ulamuliro wa Assad mwachiwonekere ulibe cholimbikitsa, chifukwa chake, kuwonetsa kusinthasintha kulikonse pakufuna kwa Assad kuchoka ku Syria, pomwe ikudziwa kuti palibe kuthekera kwa kuyimitsa moto kapena kukhazikika ndi Islamic State ndi al-Nusra Front. Momwemonso, ngakhale aku Russia kapena aku Iran sangakakamize dzanja la Assad pankhaniyi kungokambirana ndi omwe ali ofooka kwambiri pakutsutsa zida.
Nkhani zabodza zaku US pa Syria
Opanga mfundo za olamulira a Obama akuwoneka kuti akutsimikiza kuti asalole zinthu zosasangalatsa kusokoneza nkhani zabodza ku Syria, ndikuti zili kwa Russia ndi Iran kuthana ndi vutoli mwa kuphwanya malamulo a boma la Assad. Secretary of State John Kerry adapereka malingaliro pokambirana ndi kanema wa Kazak TV patatha masiku angapo msonkhano wa Vienna utatha kuti "njira yothetsera nkhondo ndiyo kupempha Bambo Assad kuti athandize kusintha kwa boma latsopano". Russia idalephera kutero, ndipo m'malo mwake "alipo kuti angothandizira boma la Assad," adatero Kerry, ndikuwonjezera kuti "otsutsa sasiya kumenyana ndi Assad".
Ndizokayikitsa kuti Kerry amalakwitsa kufalitsa nkhani zandale zankhondo zaku Syria zomwe sizingachitike. Koma sikoyenera pandale kuvomereza zenizeni zimenezo. Izi zitha kuyitanitsa mafunso osafunikira okhudza chisankho cha olamulira mu 2011 kuti agwirizanitse mfundo zake ndi akazembe aku Syria ku Riyadh, Doha ndi Istanbul omwe adakonda kusintha kwaulamuliro ku Syria kotero kuti sanangonyalanyaza zomwe zidachitika ku Syria koma adaziwona ngati. chida chothandizira kuchotsa Assad.
Tsopano mtengo wa njira yowopsa ya ndale-zandale za Obama ndi msonkhano wamtendere womwe ukusokeretsa dziko lonse lapansi za kusowa kwa njira yothetsera nkhondoyi.
- Gareth Porter ndi mtolankhani wodziyimira pawokha wofufuza komanso wopambana Mphotho ya 2012 ya Gellhorn ya utolankhani. Iye ndi mlembi wa Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare.
