Wolemba Paul Holden, Ogasiti 18, 2020
kuchokera Daily Maverick
Dziko la South Africa likuyandikira kwambiri pachiwonetsero chachikulu: mu Okutobala 2020, dzikolo lidzapereka malipiro ake omaliza pa ngongole zomwe zatengedwa kuti zilipire zogulira sitima zapamadzi, ma corvettes, ndege za helikoputala ndi ndege zomenyera nkhondo komanso zophunzitsira zomwe zimadziwika kuti "Arms Deal".
Zogula izi, zomwe zinakhazikitsidwa mwalamulo pamene mapangano ogulira zinthu adasainidwa mu Disembala 1999, atanthauzira mozama ndikusintha momwe dziko la South Africa likuyendera pambuyo pa tsankho. Vuto lomwe lilipo pano la State Capture komanso mliri wa katangale womwe ukusokoneza ntchito zothandizira kuthana ndi Covid-19, zimachokera pakuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa mphamvu ya boma yothana ndi katangale kuopera kuti mphamvuzo zingavumbulutse kuwonongeka kwa Arms Deal.
Mtengo wandale umenewu ndi waukulu, koma pamapeto pake ndi wosawerengeka. Koma chomwe chili chowoneka bwino komanso choyenera kuchepetsedwa kukhala ziwerengero zolimba ndi mtengo wa Arms Deal mu zenizeni, zovuta, ndalama.
Pogwiritsa ntchito chidziwitso chabwino kwambiri chomwe chilipo, ndikuyerekeza kuti mtengo wa Arms Deal, ukasinthidwa pakukwera kwa inflation, ndi wofanana ndi R142-biliyoni mu 2020 rand. Kapena, tafotokoza mwanjira ina, ngati Mgwirizano wa Zida za Arms ungachitike lero, ndalama zonse zogulira zogulirazo ndi ngongole zomwe zimatengedwa kuti zithandizire, zikanakhala R142 biliyoni. Ndafotokozera ziwerengero zomwe ndagwiritsa ntchito kuti ndikwaniritse zomwe zili pansipa mu Gawo 2 kuti muwerenge mozama kwambiri (werengani: nerdy).
Chiwerengero chodetsa nkhawachi chikuposa ena mwa anthu omwe atuluka m'zabodza za State Capture. Mwachitsanzo, ndi pafupifupi kuwirikiza katatu mtengo wa R50-biliyoni m'maoda omwe aperekedwa ndi Transnet ndi opanga masitima apamtunda osiyanasiyana aku China, zomwe kampani yazigawenga ya Gupta idapezako 20% yamadzi.
Kodi m'malo mwake akanalipidwa chiyani?
Ndi chiyani chinanso chimene tikanalipira ngati titawononga ndalama zokwana 142 biliyoni tsopano pa zinthu zimene timafunikiradi (mosiyana ndi gulu la ndege zankhondo zosagwiritsidwa ntchito mocheperapo ndi zizindikiro za mphamvu zapanyanja)?
Choyamba, titha kubweza ngongole yophiphiritsa yomwe boma langotenga kumene ku International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ngongole ya $4.3 biliyoni ndi yofanana ndi R70 biliyoni. Ndalama zochokera ku Arms Deal zitha kubweza ngongoleyi kawiri; kapena, chofunika kwambiri, akanachotsa kufunika kwa ngongole poyamba.
Bajeti yaposachedwa yapereka ndalama zokwana R33.3 biliyoni za ndalama zothandizira National Student Financial Aid Scheme ya chaka cha 2020/2021. Dongosololi limapereka ngongole kwa ophunzira omwe ali ndi digiri yoyamba kuti alipirire maphunziro awo aku yunivesite. Dziko la South Africa likadapereka ndalama zokwana kanayi ngati litagwiritsa ntchito ndalama za Arms Deal m'malo mwake.
Bajeti yomweyi ikuwonetsa kuti boma lidakonza zogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zokwana R65 biliyoni pothandizira ndalama zothandizira ana. Pogwiritsa ntchito ndalama za Arms Deal, tikanalipira izi kuwirikiza kawiri, kapena, mowolowa manja, kuchulukitsa mtengo wonse wa ndalama zothandizira ana kwa chaka chimodzi.
Koma chiwerengero chomwe chili chochititsa chidwi kwambiri, makamaka mkati mwavuto la Covid-19 komanso kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi komwe kudzadzere, ndikuyerekeza kwaposachedwa kwa ndalama zomwe zingawononge chaka chilichonse kuti agwiritse ntchito ndalama zoyambira ndalama zomwe zingakweze. Afirika wa ku South Africa aliyense pakati pa 18 ndi 59 pamwamba pa umphaŵi weniweni wa R1,277 pamwezi. Peter Attard Montalto wa kampani yolosera zam'tsogolo za bizinesi ya Intellidex wanena kuti zingawononge R142-biliyoni pachaka kuti achite izi: mtengo weniweni wa Arms Deal mu 2020.
Tangoganizani izi: kwa chaka chathunthu, pakati pa mliri wapadziko lonse lapansi womwe udasokoneza chikhalidwe cha anthu aku South Africa, ku South Africa aliyense adachoka mu umphawi. Zotsatira zenizeni zanthawi yayitali pazachuma, zamalingaliro ndi ndale sizingachitike.
N’zoona kuti munthu wolimbikira anganene kuti kuyerekezera kumeneku n’kopanda chilungamo. The Arms Deal, pamapeto pake, idalipidwa kwa zaka zopitilira 20, osati ngati ndalama imodzi. Koma zomwe izi zimanyalanyaza ndikuti Arms Deal idathandizidwa kwambiri ndi ngongole zakunja zomwe zidalipira ndalama zambiri za Arms Deal. Ndalama zomwe zili pamwambazi, nazonso, zikanaperekedwa ndi ngongole zofananira pamtengo womwewo pazaka 20. Ndipo izi ndizopanda kusokoneza dziko la South Africa ndi zida zankhondo zomwe sizimafunikira kwenikweni komanso zomwe zimawononga ndalama zambiri kuzisamalira ndikuyendetsa.
Ndani anapanga ndalama?
Kutengera kuwerengetsera kwanga kwaposachedwa, South Africa idalipira R108.54-biliyoni mu 2020 rand kumakampani ankhondo aku Britain, Italy, Sweden ndi Germany omwe adatipatsa ndege zankhondo, sitima zapamadzi, ma corvettes ndi ma helikoputala. Ndalamayi idalipidwa pazaka 14 kuyambira 2000 mpaka 2014.
Koma zomwe nthawi zambiri zimayiwalika pokambitsirana za Arms Deal ndikuti sanali makampani a zida zankhondo ku Europe okha omwe adapeza ndalama zambiri pa mgwirizanowu, koma mabanki akulu aku Europe omwe adapereka ngongole ku boma la South Africa kuti alipire mgwirizanowo. Mabanki awa adaphatikizapo Barclays Bank yaku Britain (yomwe idathandizira ndalama zophunzitsira ndi ndege zomenyera nkhondo, zomwe zidapanga ngongole zazikulu kuposa zonse), Commerzbank yaku Germany (yomwe idathandizira ndalama za corvette ndi sitima zapamadzi), Societe Generale yaku France (yomwe idathandizira gulu lankhondo la corvette) ndi Medio credit ya Italy. Centrale (yomwe idathandizira ndalama za helikopita).
Zowonadi, kuwerengera kwanga kukuwonetsa kuti South Africa idalipira ndalama zopitilira R20-biliyoni mu 2020 rand mu chiwongola dzanja chokha kumabanki aku Europe pakati pa 2003 ndi 2020. South Africa idalipiranso R211.2-miliyoni (osasinthidwa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo) pakuwongolera, kudzipereka ndi zolipira zamabanki omwewo pakati pa 2000 ndi 2014.
Chodabwitsa n’chakuti, ena mwa mabanki amenewa sanachitepo kanthu pamene anapereka ngongolezi ku South Africa. Mwachitsanzo, ngongole za Barclays zinalembedwa ndi dipatimenti ya boma la Britain yotchedwa Export Credit Guarantee Department. Pansi pa dongosololi, boma la Britain lidalowererapo ndikulipira banki ya Barclays ngati dziko la South Africa litalephera.
Kubwereketsa banki sikunakhale kophweka.
Nkhani zina zoipa
Kufananitsa uku, komabe, kuyenera kukumbukira chinthu china chovuta: mtengo wogulira wa R142 biliyoni wa Arms Deal si mtengo wonse wa Arms Deal konse: izi ndi ndalama zomwe zawonongera boma la South Africa. kugula zida ndi kubweza ngongole zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito pogulira.
Boma likugwiritsabe ntchito ndalama zambiri posamalira zipangizozi pakapita nthawi. Izi zimadziwika kuti "mtengo wozungulira moyo" wa zida.
Mpaka pano, palibe kuwululidwa kwa ndalama zomwe zagwiritsidwa ntchito pokonza ndi ntchito zina pa zida za Arms Deal. Tikudziwa kuti ndalamazo zakhala zokwera kwambiri kotero kuti Air Force inatsimikizira mu 2016 kuti theka la ndege zankhondo za Gripen ndizomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito, pamene theka limasungidwa mu "zosungirako zozungulira", kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha maola owuluka omwe akugwiritsidwa ntchito. ndi SAAF.
Koma, kutengera zomwe zachitika padziko lonse lapansi, tikudziwa kuti ndalama zanthawi yayitali zamoyo zitha kukhala zokulirapo. Ku US, kuyerekezera kwatsatanetsatane kwaposachedwa kutengera mbiri yakale kukuwonetsa kuti ndalama zogwirira ntchito ndi zothandizira zida zazikuluzikulu zimachokera ku 88% mpaka 112% ya mtengo wogula. Pogwiritsira ntchito izi ku nkhani ya ku South Africa, ndi kugwiritsira ntchito malingaliro omwewa, South Africa idzawononga pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa Arms Deal pa moyo wake womwe ukuyembekezeka kwa zaka 40 ngati ikufuna kusunga zida kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito.
Komabe, poganizira kusowa kwa deta yolimba yochokera ku boma pa ndalama zokonzetsera, ndaganiza kuti ndisaphatikizepo ndalama zoyendetsera moyo wanga m'mawerengedwe anga. Koma dziwani kuti ziwerengero zomwe ndikukambirana pansipa sizikuyandikira mtengo wanthawi zonse wa Arms Deal kwa okhometsa msonkho waku South Africa.
Chifukwa chiyani kuyimba mlandu kwa Arms Deal kukadali kofunikira
Kutengera zaka makumi awiri za kafukufuku, kutayikira ndi kuimbidwa milandu, tikudziwa kuti makampani aku Europe omwe adagulitsa zida za ku South Africa zomwe sanafune, adalipira mabiliyoni a randi ndikubweza "ndalama zaukatswiri" kwa osewera olumikizidwa ndi ndale. Ndipo pamene Jacob Zuma tsopano akuyenera kukumana ndi nthawi yamilandu yokhudzana ndi zigawenga izi, ichi chikhale chiyambi chabe: milandu ina yambiri. ayenela kutsatira.
Sikuti izi ndi zomwe chilungamo chimafuna: ndi chifukwa izi zitha kukhala ndi vuto lalikulu lazachuma ku boma la South Africa. Kwenikweni, mapangano onse a Arms Deal adaphatikizanso ndime yoti makampani ankhondo sangachite katangale. Komanso, ngati makampaniwa atapezeka kuti aphwanya lamuloli poimba milandu, boma la South Africa likhoza kulipiritsa chindapusa cha 10%.
Chofunika kwambiri, makontrakitalawa anali amtengo wapatali mu madola aku US, mapaundi aku Britain, Krone ya Swedish ndi Euros, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti mtengo wawo wa randi udzakhala utatha kutsika ndi kusinthasintha kwa ndalama.
Pogwiritsa ntchito ziwerengero zanga za mtengo wonse wa mgwirizano, South Africa ikhoza kubweza R10-biliyoni mu 2020 ngati onse ogulitsa Arms Deal alipidwa ndalama zonse za 10% zololedwa m'makontrakitala. Izi sizoyenera kununkhiza, ndipo ndi gawo lochepa chabe la zomwe zingawononge boma kuti makampaniwa aweruze.
Gawo 2: Kuyerekeza mtengo wonse wa Arms Deal
Chifukwa chiyani sitikudziwa mtengo wathunthu wa Arms Deal ndi chitsimikizo cha 100%?
Zimalankhula momveka bwino kuti tikuyenera kulingalirabe mtengo wa Arms Deal, m'malo monena za chiwerengero cholimba ndi konkire. Izi zili choncho chifukwa, chiyambireni Chilengedwe cha Arms Deal, mtengo wake weniweni wakhala ukubisidwa mwachinsinsi.
Chinsinsi chokhudza mgwirizanowu chinathandizidwa ndi kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa Akaunti Yachitetezo Chapadera, yomwe idagwiritsidwa ntchito powerengera ndalama za Pangano la Arms mu bajeti za South Africa. Akaunti ya Special Defense Account idakhazikitsidwa panthawi ya tsankho ndi cholinga chofuna kukhazikitsa malire a bajeti omwe angagwiritsidwe ntchito kubisa kukula kwa zilango zomwe dzikolo silinaloledwa ndi mayiko.
Kubisa kotereku kunatanthauza kuti, mwachitsanzo, ndalama zonse zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa ogulitsa Arms Deal zidawululidwa koyamba mu 2008, pomwe zidalengezedwa mu Budget ya dziko koyamba. Pa nthawiyo, mabiliyoni ambiri a ndalama anali atalipidwa kale.
Komabe, ziwerengerozi sizinaphatikizepo mtengo wa ngongole zomwe zidatengedwa kuti zilipire ndalamazo (makamaka chiwongola dzanja choperekedwa ndi zolipiritsa zina zoyang'anira). Izi zikutanthawuza kuti, kwa zaka zambiri, njira yokhayo yowerengera mtengo wa mgwirizanowu inali kutenga ndalama zomwe zanenedwa ndikuwonjezera pa 49%, zomwe kafukufuku wa boma adanena kuti ndi ndalama zonse za ndalamazo.
Mu 2011, pamene ndinasindikiza nkhani yatsatanetsatane ya Arms Deal ndi mnzanga Hennie van Vuuren, izi ndi zomwe tinachita, kupanga ndalama zokwana R71-biliyoni panthawiyo (zosasinthidwa kukwera kwa inflation). Ndipo ngakhale izi zakhala zolondola ndendende, tsopano tili mumkhalidwe womwe tingayang'ane kupanga china chake cholondola kwambiri.
Kuwerengera mwatsatanetsatane komanso kwathunthu kwa mtengo wa Arms Deal kudawonekera poyera muumboni wa mkulu wa Treasury wanthawi yayitali komanso wolemekezeka, Andrew Donaldson. Donaldson adapereka umboniwu ku bungwe lotchedwa Seriti Commission of Inquiry, lomwe linali ndi ntchito yofufuza zolakwika pa Arms Deal. Monga zikudziwikiratu, zomwe bungwe la Seriti Commission lidapeza zidayikidwa pambali mu Ogasiti 2019 pomwe Wapampando Jaji Seriti ndi mnzake Commissioner Hendrick Musi adapezeka kuti alephera kufufuza mokwanira, mwachilungamo komanso momveka bwino pankhani ya Arms Deal.
Momwe umboni wa a Donaldson udachitikira ku komitiyi, zinali zongoyerekeza momwe bungweli silinagwire bwino ntchito yake. Izi zinali chifukwa, ngakhale zina zowululidwa zothandiza kwambiri, zomwe a Donaldson adapereka zinali zosamveka bwino zomwe bungweli lidalephera kuzindikira kapena kufunsa mafunso a Donaldson, ndikuzisiya zosamveka - ndipo mtengo wonse wa Arms Deal ukadali wosadziwika.
Kusamveka bwino mu accounting ya Arms Deal
Kuti timvetsetse kusamveka bwino m'mawu a Donaldson munthu ayenera kutenga njira yosasangalatsa pakugwira ntchito kwa Treasury ndi momwe ndalama zimayendera mu bajeti ya dziko. Pirirani nane.
The Arms Deal idathandizidwa ndi ndalama, makamaka, ndi ngongole zazikulu zotengedwa kumabanki akuluakulu apadziko lonse lapansi. Ngongolezi zidakhala m'miphika, yomwe dziko la South Africa limatha kutenga ndalama zolipirira ogulitsa zida. Kwenikweni, izi zikutanthauza kuti chaka chilichonse, South Africa imatenga ndalama kuchokera ku ngongole zomwe mabanki amapatsidwa (zotchedwa "drawdown" pa ngongole), ndikugwiritsa ntchito ndalamazi kulipira ndalama zazikulu (ndiko kuti, mtengo weniweni wogulira) kumakampani opanga zida.
Komabe, si ndalama zonse zomwe zidaperekedwa kumakampani a zida zankhondo zomwe zidatengedwa kuchokera ku ngongolezi, chifukwa South Africa idagwiritsanso ntchito ndalama mu bajeti yomwe idalipo kuti ipereke ndalama zapachaka. Ndalamazi zinaperekedwa ku bajeti ya dziko lonse ndipo zinakhala gawo la ndalama zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito. Izi zikuwonetsedwa pansipa:
Izi zikutanthauza kuti sitingadalire mtengo wonse wa ngongole ndi chiwongola dzanja chawo kuti tiwerengere mtengo wa Arms Deal, popeza mtengo wina wa mgwirizanowu sunaperekedwe ndi ngongole zazikulu, koma zidalipiridwa kuchokera ku South Africa. bajeti yanthawi zonse ya dziko.
Donaldson, mu umboni wake, ananena kuti ndalama zenizeni za randi za Arms Deal, kapena, m’mawu osavuta, ndalama zomwe zinaperekedwa mwachindunji ku makampani a zida zankhondo, zinali R46.666-biliyoni pakati pa 2000 ndi 2014, pamene malipiro omalizira anaperekedwa. Ananenanso kuti, pofika mu Marichi 2014, dziko la South Africa liyenera kubwezanso ndalama zokwana R12.1 biliyoni pa ngongolezo, kuwonjezera pa chiwongola dzanja china cha R2.6 biliyoni.
Kutengera izi poyang'ana, ndikuyendetsa ndi ziwerengerozo, zikuwoneka ngati njira yosavuta yowerengera mtengo wa Arms Deal ndikungowonjezera ndalama zomwe zidaperekedwa kumakampani ankhondo pakati pa 2000 ndi 2014 monga zikuwonekera mu bajeti ya dipatimenti ya chitetezo, ndi ndalama zomwe zikuyenera kubwezeredwa pa ngongolezo kuphatikiza chiwongola dzanja kuyambira 2014, motere:
Tikaphatikiza pamodzi motere, timafika pamtengo wa R61.501-biliyoni. Ndipo, ndithudi, ichi chinali ndendende chiwerengero chomwe chinanenedwa mu zofalitsa za ku South Africa panthawiyo, kulakwitsa kunapangitsa, mwa zina, ndi kulephera kwa Seriti Commission kulongosola umboni wa Donaldon.
Cholakwika chagona pa mfundo yakuti umboni wa Donaldson unaphatikizapo tebulo latsatanetsatane kumapeto kwa mawu ake omwe adalongosola kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zaperekedwa kuti athetse ndalama ndi chiwongoladzanja cha ngongole. Gome ili lidatsimikizira kuti, mpaka 2014, ndalama zokwana R10.1 biliyoni za chiwongola dzanja zidalipiridwa kupitilira kubweza ngongoleyo.
Zomveka, titha kunena kuti ndalamazi sizinalipidwe kuchokera ku bajeti ya Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo, pazifukwa ziwiri. Choyamba, ndalama zomwe zidaperekedwa ku Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo zidaperekedwa kumakampani ogulitsa zida, osati mabanki. Chachiwiri, monga Donaldson adatsimikiziranso, malipiro a ngongole ndi chiwongoladzanja amawerengedwa mu National Revenue Fund, osati ndalama zenizeni za dipatimenti.
Zomwe izi zikutanthawuza, mophweka, ndikuti tili ndi mtengo wina woti tiphatikize pamtengo wathu wa Arms Deal formula, yomwe ndi ndalama zomwe zaperekedwa pachiwongola dzanja pakati pa 2000 ndi 2014, zomwe zimatipatsa izi:
Pogwiritsa ntchito chiŵerengero ichi, tikufika pamtengo wokwanira R71.864-biliyoni:
Ndipo tsopano kusintha kwa inflation
Kukwera kwa mitengo ndikokwera mtengo wa katundu ndi ntchito pakapita nthawi mundalama inayake. Kapena, mophweka, mtanda wa mkate mu 1999 umakhala wotsika mtengo kwambiri m'ma randi kuposa momwe ukuchitira mu 2020.
Izi ndizoonanso pa Arms Deal. Kuti timvetsetse kuchuluka kwa ndalama za Arms Deal monga momwe tingamvetsetse masiku ano, tiyenera kufotokoza mtengo wa mgwirizanowo mumitengo ya 2020. Izi zili choncho chifukwa ndalama zokwana 2.9 biliyoni zomwe tidapereka kumakampani a zida zankhondo mchaka cha 2000/01 sizingafanane ndi ndalama zokwana 2.9 biliyoni zomwe zidaperekedwa pano, monganso ndalama zokwana 2.50 zomwe tidalipira buledi mu 1999. sindidzagula lofu wamtengo wapatali wa R10 mu 2020.
Kuti ndiwerengere mtengo wa Arms Deal mumtengo wa 2020, ndawerengera magawo atatu osiyanasiyana.
Choyamba, ndatenga ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kumakampani ankhondo chaka ndi chaka kuchokera mu bajeti ya dipatimenti ya chitetezo. Kenako ndasintha kuchuluka kwa chaka chilichonse pakutsika kwa mitengo, kuti ndikwere mitengo ya 2020, motere:
Chachiwiri, pa chiwongola dzanja chomwe chidalipiridwa kale, ndidachita zomwezo. Komabe, boma silinasindikizepo ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kuti ziwongoleredwe chaka chilichonse. Tikudziwa, komabe, kuchokera m'mawu a Donaldson, chaka chomwe boma lidayamba kubweza ngongole zina, ndipo tikudziwanso kuti ngongole idabwezeredwa pang'onopang'ono chaka chilichonse. Motero n’kutheka kuti chiwongoladzanjacho chinabwezeredwa chimodzimodzi. Choncho ndatenga chiwongoladzanja chomwe ndinalipira pa ngongole iliyonse, ndikuigawa ndi chiwerengero cha zaka pakati pa nthawi yomwe ngongoleyo inabwezeredwa ndi 2014 (tsiku la ndemanga ya Donaldson), ndikusinthitsa chaka chilichonse kutsika kwa mitengo.
Kuti tigwiritse ntchito chitsanzo, boma la South Africa linatenga ngongole zitatu ndi Barclays Bank kuti ilipire ndalama zogulira ndege za Hawk ndi Gripen kuchokera ku BAE Systems ndi SAAB. Ndemanga ya Donaldson ikutsimikizira kuti ngongoleyi idayikidwa mu "malipiro" mu 2005, komanso kuti ndalama zokwana 6 biliyoni zidalipiridwa pa ngongolezo pakati pa nthawiyo ndi 2014. ife mawerengedwe awa:
Pomaliza, ndachita kuwerengera kofanana kwa ndalama zomwe zikuyenera kubwezeredwa pa ngongole (zonse zazikulu ndi chiwongola dzanja) kuyambira 2014. Mawu a Donaldson adatsimikizira kuti ngongole zosiyanasiyana zidzalipidwa nthawi zosiyanasiyana. Ngongole za sitima zapamadzi, mwachitsanzo, zidzalipidwa pofika Julayi 2016, ma corvettes pofika Epulo 2014, ndi ngongole za Barclays Bank za ndege za Hawk ndi Gripen pofika Okutobala 2020. Adatsimikiziranso kuti ndalama zonse ziyenera kubwezedwa pangongole iliyonse. pakati pa 2014 ndi masiku amenewo.
Kuti ndigwirizane ndi kukwera kwa mitengo, ndatenga ndalama zomwe zinanenedwa kuti ndizotsala (zonse za ndalama zazikulu ndi zobweza chiwongoladzanja pa ngongolezo), ndikuzigawa mofanana ndi chaka mpaka tsiku lomaliza lolipira, ndiyeno ndikuzisintha chaka chilichonse kuti zitheke. Kuti tigwiritsenso ntchito chitsanzo cha Barclays Bank kachiwiri, timapeza ziwerengero izi:
Wowerenga mosamala akadawona chinthu chofunikira: kuyandikira kwa chaka cha 2020, m'pamenenso kukwera kwamitengo kumachepa. Ndizotheka, chifukwa chake, kuyerekeza kwanga ndikwambiri, chifukwa ndizotheka (ngakhale sizokayikitsa) kuti zina mwazolipira chiwongola dzanja zidapangidwa kuyandikira 2020 kuposa 2014.
Chotsutsa ichi ndi chakuti zomwe Donaldson adanena adapereka ndalama zomwe ziyenera kubwezeredwa mu ziwerengero za rand. Komabe, ngongolezo zidapangidwadi mu chisakanizo cha mapaundi aku Britain, madola aku US ndi krone yaku Sweden. Poganizira momwe ndalama za rand zakhala zikuphwanyira ndalama zonsezi kuyambira 2014, zikuoneka kuti ndalama za randi zomwe zinaperekedwa zinali zapamwamba kuposa zomwe ananena Donaldson kuti zidzakhala choncho pakati pa 2014 ndi 2020.
Ndi chenjezo ili lomwe latha, tsopano titha kuwonjezera ndalama zonse zomwe zasinthidwa pakukwera kwamitengo, kufika pamtengo wokwanira R142.864 biliyoni mumitengo ya 2020:
