Zaka zoposa 1986 zapitazo, mu October XNUMX, atsogoleri a United States ndi Soviet Union anakumana pamsonkhano wosaiwalika mumzinda wa Iceland, Reykjavik. Msonkhanowo unayambitsidwa ndi mtsogoleri wa Soviet panthaŵiyo Mikhail Gorbachev, amene ankakhulupirira kuti “kugwa kwa kukhulupirirana"Pakati pa mayiko awiriwa atha kuyimitsidwa ndikuyambiranso kukambirana ndi Purezidenti wa US Ronald Reagan pazovuta zazikulu, makamaka pankhani ya zida za nyukiliya.

Zaka makumi atatu, pamene atsogoleri a Russia ndi United States akukonzekera msonkhano wawo woyamba kuyambira chisankho cha 2016 US, msonkhano wa 1986 udakalipobe. (Gulu la Purezidenti Donald Trump latsutsa malipoti a atolankhani kuti msonkhanowo ukhoza kuchitikira ku Reykjavik.) Ngakhale kuti palibe mgwirizano umodzi womwe Gorbachev ndi Reagan adasaina, mbiri yakale ya msonkhano wawo inali yaikulu. Ngakhale kuti msonkhano wawo unalephereka, mtsogoleri wa boma Reagan adatcha "ufumu woipa” ndipo pulezidenti wa dongosolo lachikomyunizimu amene anali mdani wosasunthika wa dongosolo la Chikomyunizimu anatsegula njira yatsopano yogwirizana pakati pa mayiko amphamvu za nyukiliya.

The START I bwino

Ku Reykjavik, atsogoleri a maulamuliro awiriwa adafotokozera mwatsatanetsatane momwe angakhalire ndipo, potero, adatha kuchitapo kanthu modabwitsa pa nkhani za nyukiliya. Patangotha ​​chaka chimodzi, mu December 1987, United States ndi USSR zinasaina mgwirizano wochotsa zida zapakati ndi zazifupi. Mu 1991, adasaina pangano loyamba la Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I).

Zoyesayesa zomwe zidapangidwa polemba mapanganowa zinali zazikulu. Ndinagwira nawo ntchito yokonzekera malemba a mapanganowa pamagulu onse a zokambirana zotentha, zomwe zimatchedwa Small Five ndi Big Five - mwachidule kwa mabungwe osiyanasiyana a Soviet omwe ali ndi ntchito yokonza ndondomeko. KUYAMBA ndinatenga zaka zosachepera zisanu ndikugwira ntchito mwakhama. Tsamba lililonse lachikalata chachitalichi linali ndi mawu amtsinde ambirimbiri osonyeza maganizo otsutsana a mbali ziŵirizi. Mgwirizano unayenera kupezeka pa mfundo iliyonse. Mwachibadwa, kukanakhala kosatheka kufikira kulolerana kumeneku popanda chifuno cha ndale pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri.

Pamapeto pake, mgwirizano womwe unali usanachitikepo kale unagwirizanitsidwa ndi kusainidwa, chinthu chomwe chingathe kuwonedwa ngati chitsanzo cha ubale pakati pa adani awiri. Zinachokera ku lingaliro loyambirira la Gorbachev la kuchepetsa zida zankhondo ndi 50 peresenti: maguluwo adagwirizana kuti achepetse zida zawo zanyukiliya pafupifupi 12,000 aliyense kukhala 6,000.

Dongosolo lotsimikizira panganoli linali losintha. Zimadabwitsabe malingaliro. Zinakhudzanso zosintha pafupifupi zana limodzi za momwe zida zowonongera zidali, zowunikira zambiri pamalopo, komanso kusinthana kwa data patelemetry pakatha kukhazikitsidwa kulikonse kwa mzinga wa intercontinental ballistic (ICBM) kapena mizinga yowulutsa pansi pamadzi (SLBM). Kuwonekera kwamtunduwu m'gulu lachinsinsi sikunamveke pakati pa adani akale, kapena ngakhale ubale pakati pa ogwirizana kwambiri monga United States, United Kingdom, ndi France.

Palibe kukayika kuti popanda START I, sipakanakhala START New START, yomwe inasainidwa ndi pulezidenti wa US Barack Obama ndi pulezidenti wa Russia Dmitry Medvedev mu 2010 ku Prague. START Ndinakhala ngati maziko a New START ndipo ndinapereka zofunikira pa mgwirizano, ngakhale kuti chikalatacho chinkangoyang'ana maulendo khumi ndi asanu ndi atatu okha (ICBM bases, submarine bases, ndi air bases), zosintha makumi anayi ndi ziwiri, ndi ma telemetry asanu. kusinthana kwa data kwa ma ICBM ndi ma SLBM pachaka.

Malinga ndi kusinthanitsa kwaposachedwa kwa data pansi pa New START, Russia pakadali pano ili ndi ma ICBM otumizidwa 508, ma SLBM, ndi mabomba owopsa okhala ndi zida zankhondo za 1,796, ndipo United States ili ndi ma ICBM 681, ma SLBM, ndi mabomba owopsa okhala ndi zida zankhondo 1,367. Mu 2018, mbali ziwirizi zikuyenera kukhala zosaposa 700 zowombera mabomba ndi mabomba osapitirira 1,550. Panganoli likhala likugwira ntchito mpaka 2021.

The START I Legacy Ikuwononga

Komabe, ziwerengerozi sizikuwonetseratu bwino za ubale weniweni pakati pa Russia ndi United States.

Mavuto ndi kusowa kwa kayendetsedwe ka zida za nyukiliya sikungasiyanitsidwe ndi kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa ubale pakati pa Russia ndi Kumadzulo chifukwa cha zochitika ku Ukraine ndi Syria. Komabe, m'munda wa nyukiliya, vutoli linayamba ngakhale izi zisanachitike, pafupifupi 2011, ndipo sizinayambe zakhalapo zaka makumi asanu kuyambira pamene mayiko awiriwa anayamba kugwira ntchito limodzi pankhaniyi. M'mbuyomu, atangosaina pangano latsopano, okhudzidwawo akadayambitsa zokambirana zatsopano za njira zochepetsera zida. Komabe, kuyambira 2011, palibe zokambirana. Ndipo pakapita nthawi, ndipamenenso akuluakulu aboma amagwiritsa ntchito mawu anyukiliya polankhula pagulu.

Mu June 2013, ali ku Berlin, Obama adapempha Russia kuti isayine pangano latsopano lomwe likufuna kuchepetsa zida zamagulu ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu. Pansi pamalingaliro awa, zida zankhondo zaku Russia ndi US zitha kungokhala zida zankhondo za 1,000 ndi magalimoto 500 otumizidwa ndi zida zanyukiliya.

Lingaliro lina la Washington pakuchepetsanso zida zankhondo lidapangidwa mu Januware 2016. pepani atsogoleri a mayiko awiriwa ndi odziwika bwino ndale ndi asayansi ochokera ku United States, Russia, ndi Europe, kuphatikizapo wakale US Senator Sam Nunn, wakale US ndi UK chitetezo mitu William Perry ndi Ambuye Des Browne, academician Nikolay Laverov, kazembe wakale Russian ku United States Vladimir Lukin. , kazembe wa dziko la Sweden Hans Blix, yemwe kale anali kazembe wa dziko la Sweden ku United States Rolf Ekéus, katswiri wa sayansi ya sayansi Roald Sagdeev, mlangizi Susan Eisenhower, ndi ena angapo. Pempholi linakonzedwa pamsonkhano wapadziko lonse wa International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe and Nuclear Threat Initiative ku Washington kumayambiriro kwa December 2015 ndipo inaperekedwa mwamsanga kwa atsogoleri akuluakulu a mayiko awiriwa.

Lingaliro limeneli linadzutsa kuyankha mwaukali ku Moscow. Boma la Russia linatchula zifukwa zingapo zimene linaona kuti kukambirana ndi United States n’kosatheka. Iwo anaphatikizapo, choyamba, kufunika kopanga mapangano a mayiko ambiri ndi mayiko ena a nyukiliya; chachiwiri, kupitirizabe kutumizidwa kwa zida zankhondo za ku Ulaya ndi za US padziko lonse; chachitatu, kukhalapo kwa chiwopsezo chomwe chingathe kumenyedwa ndi zida zankhondo zodziwika bwino kwambiri zolimbana ndi zida zanyukiliya zaku Russia; ndipo chachinayi, chiwopsezo cha nkhondo ya mlengalenga. Pomaliza, mayiko akumadzulo, motsogozedwa ndi United States, adayimbidwa mlandu wokakamiza ku Russia kuti achitepo kanthu chifukwa cha zomwe zikuchitika ku Ukraine.

Kutsatira kulepheretsa uku, lingaliro latsopano linaperekedwa ndi United States kuti awonjezere START New kwa zaka zisanu, kusuntha komwe kungatanthauzidwe ngati ndondomeko yosunga zobwezeretsera ngati palibe mgwirizano watsopano womwe unavomerezedwa. Izi zikuphatikizidwa m'mawu a START Yatsopano. Kuwonjeza ndi koyenera kwambiri malinga ndi momwe zinthu zilili.

Mtsutso waukulu pakuwonjezedwa ndikuti kusowa kwa mgwirizano kumachotsa START I kuchokera pamalamulo, zomwe zalola maphwando kuwongolera modalirika kukhazikitsa mapangano kwazaka zambiri. Dongosololi limaphatikizapo kuwongolera zida zankhondo zamaboma, mtundu ndi kapangidwe ka zidazo, mawonekedwe a malo oponya mizinga, kuchuluka kwa magalimoto onyamula katundu omwe atumizidwa ndi zida zankhondo zomwe zidalipo, komanso kuchuluka kwa magalimoto osagwiritsidwa ntchito. Malamulowa amalolanso maphwando kukhazikitsa ndondomeko yanthawi yochepa.

Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, pakhala kuyenderana kopitilira khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu pachaka kuyambira chaka cha 2011 pazigawo zilizonse zamagulu a nyukiliya, panyanja, komanso pamlengalenga ndi zidziwitso makumi anayi ndi ziwiri zamtundu wa mphamvu zawo zanyukiliya. Kupanda chidziwitso chokhudza magulu ankhondo a mbali ina nthawi zambiri kumabweretsa kuchulukirachulukira kwa mphamvu zochulukirapo komanso zowoneka bwino za mdani wake, komanso kusankha kukulitsa luso lake kuti apange kuthekera koyenera kuyankha. Njirayi imatsogolera ku mpikisano wa zida zosalamulirika. Zimakhala zowopsa makamaka zikakhudza zida za nyukiliya, chifukwa zimasokoneza kukhazikika kwadongosolo monga momwe zimamvekera poyamba. Ichi ndichifukwa chake kuli koyenera kukulitsa START Yatsopano kwa zaka zina zisanu mpaka 2026.

Kutsiliza

Komabe, zingakhale bwino kusaina pangano latsopano. Izi zitha kulola maphwando kuti azikhala okhazikika pomwe akugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zochepa kuposa momwe zingakhudzire zida zomwe zidafotokozedwa ndi New START. Dongosololi lingakhale lopindulitsa kwambiri ku Russia chifukwa mgwirizano wotsatira womwe udasainidwa, monga START I ndi pangano lomwe lilipo pano, ungangotanthauza kuchepetsa mphamvu zanyukiliya zaku US ndikulola Russia kuti ichepetse mtengo wosunga mgwirizano womwe ulipo. pakupanga ndikusintha mitundu yowonjezereka ya zida zoponya.

Zili kwa atsogoleri aku Russia ndi United States kuti achite izi zotheka, zofunikira, komanso zoyenera. Msonkhano wa Reykjavik wa zaka makumi atatu zapitazo ukuwonetsa zomwe zingachitike atsogoleri awiri, omwe mayiko awo akuti ndi adani osatheka, atenga udindo ndikuchitapo kanthu kuti alimbikitse bata ndi chitetezo padziko lonse lapansi.

Zosankha zamtunduwu zitha kutengedwa ndi mtundu wa atsogoleri abwino kwambiri omwe, mwachisoni, akusoŵeka m'dziko lamakonoli. Koma, kuti tifotokoze mwachidule katswiri wa zamaganizo wa ku Austria Wilhelm Stekel, mtsogoleri yemwe atayima pa mapewa a chimphona amatha kuona zambiri kuposa chimphonacho. Sayenera kutero, koma akanatha. Cholinga chathu chiyenera kukhala kuonetsetsa kuti atsogoleri amakono omwe amakhala pamapewa a zimphona amasamala kuyang'ana patali.