Nuclear Deterrence ndi Nthano. Ndipo Lethal Mmodzi pa Izo.

M'kalasi yake Chisinthiko cha Nuclear Strategy (1989), Lawrence Freedman, mtsogoleri wa akatswiri a mbiri yakale a ku Britain ndi akatswiri olemba mbiri, adamaliza kunena kuti: 'Emperor Deterrence sangakhale ndi zovala, koma akadali Emperor.' Ngakhale ali wamaliseche, mfumuyi ikupitirizabe kunyoza, kulandira malire sikuyenera, pangozi dziko lonse lapansi. Kukanika kwa nyukiliya ndi lingaliro lomwe linakhala lingaliro lopha, lomwe limakhalabe lothandiza ngakhale kuti lakhala likudziwika kwambiri.

Choncho, kuyimika kwa nyukiliya kunayambika, zooneka ngati zomveka bwino zomwe mtendere ndi bata zikanakhalapo chifukwa choopsezedwa chiwonongeko chotsimikizika (MAD, moyenera mokwanira).

Winston Churchill anafotokoza izo mu 1955 ndi mphamvu zamphamvu: 'Kutetezeka kudzakhala mwana wolimba wa mantha, ndipo adzapulumuka m'bale wamphongo wa chiwonongeko.'

Chofunika kwambiri, kuyimitsa sikunangokhala njira yokhayokha, koma chifukwa chomwe maboma amachirikiza zida za nyukiliya. Boma lirilonse lomwe tsopano lili ndi zida za nyukiliya likunena kuti likuletsa kuzunzidwa chifukwa choopseza chilango choopsa.

Ngakhale kufufuza mwachidule, komabe, amasonyeza kuti mfundo yotsutsana siikutanthauza kuti mbiri yake imasonyeza. Mu buku lake Ambassadors(1903), Henry James adalongosola kukongola kwake ngati 'chokongoletsera ndi cholimba', nthawi yomweyo akuwomba ndi kunjenjemera, ponena kuti 'zomwe zimawoneka kuti zonsezi zikuoneka kuti zikuzama kwambiri.' Anthu akhala akuwongolerana ndi mawonekedwe onyezimira a chitetezo, ndi lonjezo lake la mphamvu, chitetezo ndi chitetezo. Koma zomwe zakhala zikuyendera bwino kwambiri zimapangika ndi chisangalalo chodabwitsa pamene zikuyang'aniridwa mozama.

Tiyeni tiyambe kuganizira mozama za mfundo zotsutsa: kuti zasintha.

Otsutsana ndi nyukiliya kukaniza kunena kuti tiyenera kuyamika chifukwa chakuti nkhondo yachitatu yapadziko lonse yatha, ngakhale pamene mikangano pakati pa maulamuliro awiri - US ndi USSR - inatha.

Otsatira ena amachitanso kuti kudziletsa kukukhazikitsa maziko a Soviet Union komanso kugonjetsedwa kwa chikomyunizimu. Pofotokoza izi, mphamvu ya nyukiliya ya West West inalepheretsa USSR kuti ifike kumadzulo kwa Ulaya, ndipo inapereka dziko kuopsezedwa ndi chizunzo cha Chikomyunizimu.

Komabe, pali zifukwa zomveka zomwe zikusonyeza kuti US ndi omwe kale anali Soviet Union anapewa nkhondo yapadziko lonse chifukwa cha zifukwa zingapo zotheka, makamaka chifukwa palibe mbali yomwe inkafuna kupita ku nkhondo. Inde, US ndi Russia sanamenyepo nkhondo nkhondo isanayambe. Kuimba zida za nyukiliya chifukwa chake Cold War sinathenso ndikumangonena kuti galimoto yosungira, popanda injini kapena magudumu, sizinathamangitse maere chifukwa chakuti palibe amene anatembenuza fungulo. Kulankhulana momveka bwino, palibe njira yosonyezera kuti zida za nyukiliya zimapangitsa mtendere pa Cold War, kapena kuti akuchita tsopano.

Mwinamwake mtendere unali pakati pa mphamvu ziwiri zokha chifukwa chakuti analibe mikangano yomwe imayenera kumenyana nkhondo yoopsa kwambiri, ngakhale yachilendo.

Mwachitsanzo, palibe umboni wakuti atsogoleri a Soviet ankaganiza kuti ayesetse kugonjetsa kumadzulo kwa Ulaya, mochulukira kuti amaletsedwa ndi zida za nyukiliya za West. Thumb zifukwa - makamaka zoipa - zikhoza kukhala ndalama za pundits, koma n'zosatheka kutsimikizira, ndipo sizipereka malo olimba kuti ayese zenizeni zenizeni, ndikugwiritsanso ntchito chifukwa chake osati zinachitika.

Mwachidule, ngati galu sagwedeze usiku, kodi tinganene motsimikiza kuti palibe amene amayenda panyumba? Okondeka okondana ali ngati mayi yemwe amakhetsa mafuta onunkhira pa udzu m'mawa uliwonse. Mnansi wina wosokonezeka atafunsa za khalidwe losayembekezereka, iye anayankha kuti: 'Ndimachita zimenezi kuti njovu zisachoke.' Wokondedwayo adatsutsa kuti: 'Koma palibe njovu zilizonse mkati mwa 10,000 mailosi apa,' ndipo wopopera mankhwalawo anayankha kuti: 'Iwe ukuwona, zikugwira ntchito!'

Sitiyenera kuyamikira atsogoleri athu, kapena kulepheretsa chiphunzitso, makamaka zida za nyukiliya, kuti mukhalebe mtendere.

Chimene tinganene ndi chakuti, monga mmawa uno, iwo omwe ali ndi mphamvu zowononga moyo sanachitepo. Koma izi sizomwe zimatonthoza, ndipo mbiri sizotsitsimula. Kutalika kwa 'nyukiliya mtendere', kuyambira pa nkhondo yachiwiri yapadziko lonse mpaka kumapeto kwa Cold War, kunatha zaka zoposa makumi asanu. Zaka zoposa 20 zaka zinasiyanitsa Nkhondo Yoyamba ndi Yachiwiri Yadziko Lonse; izi zisanachitike, panali zaka zoposa 40 za mtendere pakati pa mapeto a nkhondo ya Franco-Prussia (1871) ndi First World War (1914), ndi zaka 55 pakati pa nkhondo ya Franco-Prussia ndi Napoleon kugonjetsedwa ku Waterloo (1815) ).

Ngakhalenso ku Ulaya yolimbana ndi nkhondo, zaka zambiri za mtendere sizikhala zosavuta. Nthawi iliyonse, pamene mtendere unatha ndipo nkhondo yotsatira inayamba, nkhondoyo inagwiritsa ntchito zida zomwe zinalipo panthawiyo - zomwe, chifukwa chachikulu, zikhoza kukhala zida za nyukiliya. Njira yokhayo yotsimikizira kuti zida za nyukiliya sizigwiritsidwa ntchito ndikuonetsetsa kuti palibe zida zoterezi. Palibe chifukwa choganiza kuti kupezeka kwa zida za nyukiliya kungalepheretse kugwiritsa ntchito. Choyamba choonetsetsa kuti anthu asatuluke kuwonongeka kwa nyukiliya kungakhale kusonyeza kuti Emperor Deterrence alibe zovala - zomwe zikanatsegula mwayi wotsutsa chinyengocho ndi china choyenera.

N'zotheka kuti mtendere wa pambuyo pa 1945 US-Soviet unabwera 'mwa mphamvu', koma izi sizikutanthauza kuti zida za nyukiliya zisawonongeke. Ndizosatsutsika kuti kupezeka kwa zida za nyukiliya kumakhala ndi chidwi chokwaniritsa zochitika zapakati pa mphindi zochepa kumapanga mbali zonse ziwiri.

Vuto la Misisi Lotchedwa 1962 - pamene, ndi nkhani zonse, dziko linayandikira nkhondo ya nyukiliya kusiyana ndi nthawi ina iliyonse - si umboni wotsutsa kuti: vutoli linachitika chifukwa cha zida za nyukiliya. N'zosakayikitsa kuti tapulumuka nkhondo ya nyukiliya osati chifukwa choletsedwa koma ngakhale zili choncho.

Ngakhale pamene pali mbali imodzi yokha, zida za nyukiliya sizinasokoneze mitundu ina ya nkhondo. Zonsezi zinayambika ku China, Cuba, Iran ndi Nicaragua ngakhale kuti maboma a nyukiliya a United States adathandizira maboma omwe agonjetsedwa. Mofananamo, US anagonjetsa nkhondo ya Vietnam, monga momwe Soviet Union inatayira ku Afghanistan, ngakhale mayiko onsewa omwe alibe zida za nyukiliya, komanso zida zowonjezera komanso zabwino kuposa adani awo. Ngakhale zida za nyukiliya sizinathandize Russia kupambana nkhondo ya a Chechen ku 1994-96, kapena ku 1999-2000, pamene zida za Russia zowononga zidawononge dziko la Chechen Republic.

Zida za nyukiliya sizinathandize US kuti akwaniritse zolinga zake ku Iraq kapena Afghanistan, zomwe zakhala zovuta kwambiri kuwonongeka kwa dziko ndi zida za nyukiliya zapamwamba kwambiri padziko lapansi. Komanso, ngakhale kuti zida za nyukiliya, nyuzipepala za ku United States zikuopabebe zigawenga zapakhomo, zomwe zingakhale zopangidwa ndi zida za nyukiliya kuposa zomwe zimawaletsa.

Mwachidule, sizomveka kunena kuti zida za nyukiliya zasokoneza aliyense nkhondo yamtundu wanji, kapena kuti adzachita zimenezi m'tsogolomu. Panthawi ya Cold War, mbali iliyonse inkachita nkhondo zowonongeka: Mwachitsanzo, Soviets ku Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), ndi Afghanistan (1979-89); A Russia ku Chechnya (1994-96; 1999-2009), Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014-alipo), komanso Syria (2015-alipo); ndi US ku Korea (1950-53), Vietnam (1955-75), Lebanon (1982), Grenada (1983), Panama (1989-90), Persian Gulf (1990-91), Yugoslavia yakale (1991- 99), Afghanistan (2001-alipo), ndi Iraq (2003-alipo), kutchula milandu ingapo chabe.

Ngakhalenso zida zawo sizilepheretsa kuukira zida za nyukiliya ndi otsutsa omwe sali nyukiliya. Mu 1950, dziko la China linayima zaka 14 kuyambira pakukhazikitsa ndi kutumiza zida zake za nyukiliya, pamene US anali ndi zida zankhondo zamatomu. Komabe, momwe mafunde a nkhondo ya Korea anali kusintha mofulumira motsutsana ndi kumpoto, zida za nyukiliya za ku America sizinalepheretse China kutumiza asilikali oposa 300,000 pamtsinje wa Yalu, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti chigawo cha Korea chigawikane mpaka lero, ndipo zinayambitsa chimodzi mwa zovuta zowonongeka kwambiri padziko lonse.

Mu 1956, asilikali a nyukiliya ku United Kingdom adachenjeza Aigupto omwe si a nyukiliya kuti asayese kupanga Suez Canal. Zopanda phindu: UK, France ndi Israeli adatha kuponya Sinai ndi mphamvu zowonongeka. Ku 1982, Argentina anagonjetsa zilumba za Falkland ku British, ngakhale kuti UK anali ndi zida za nyukiliya ndi Argentina.

Pambuyo pa nkhondo yomwe inatsogoleredwa ndi US ku 1991, dziko la Iraq lomwe linali ndi zida zankhanza sizinapewe kuyika zida za Scud ku Israeli, zomwe sizinabwezere, ngakhale kuti zikanatha kugwiritsira ntchito zida za nyukiliya kuti ziwononge Baghdad. N'zovuta kuganiza kuti kuchita zimenezi kungapindulitse aliyense. Mwachiwonekere, zida za nyukiliya za ku America sizinalepheretse zigawenga za ku United States za 11 September 2001, monga momwe zida zankhondo za nyukiliya za ku UK ndi France sizilepheretsa kugawidwa kwa zigawenga m'mayiko amenewo.

Zovuta, mwachidule, siziletsa.

Chitsanzochi ndi chakuya komanso chapadziko lonse. Nkhondo zogwiritsa ntchito nyukiliya ku France sizingatheke kulamulira dziko la National Liberation Front lomwe silili nyukiliya. Zida za nyukiliya za ku America sizinalepheretse North Korea kuchotsa chotengera cha US intelligence-gathering, USS Pueblo, mu 1968. Ngakhale lero, ngalawayo imakhalabe ku North Korea manja.

Nukes za US sizinawathandize China kuti Vietnam iwononge dziko la Cambodia mu 1979. Ngakhale zida za nyukiliya za ku United States sizinayime asilikali a Iran Otsutsana ndi Zolinga kuwatenga olamulira a ku United States ndi kuwatenga kuti azigwira nawo nkhondo (1979-81), monga momwe mantha a zida za nyukiliya za ku United States sanapatse mphamvu anthu a US ndi ogwirizana nawo kuti akakamize Iraq kuchoka ku Kuwait popanda kulimbana 1990.

In Zida za nyukiliya ndi zokakamiza (2017), asayansi a ndale Todd Sechser ndi Matthew Fuhrmann adafufuza zochitika za 348 zomwe zikuchitika pakati pa 1919 ndi 1995. Iwo ankafufuza kufufuza kuti awone ngati zida zankhondo za nyukiliya zinkakhala zopambana kuposa mayiko ochiritsira popondereza adani awo panthawi ya mikangano. Iwo sanali.

Sizinthu zokhazokha, koma zida za nyukiliya sizinalimbikitse iwo omwe ali nawo kuti apitirize kufunafuna; ngati chili chonse, mayiko oterewa anali ochepa Zochepa kupambana popeza njira yawo. Nthawi zina, kusanthulako kumakhala kochititsa manyazi. Choncho, pakati pa zochepa chabe zomwe ziopsezo zochokera ku dziko la nkhondo zankhondo za nyukiliya zinalembedwa ngati kulimbikitsana ndi mdani wake anali ku United States, ku 1961, kuti dziko la Dominican Republic lichite chisankho cha demokarasi potsatira kuphedwa kwa wolamulira wankhanza Rafael Trujillo, komanso ku America, ku 1994, pambuyo pa kuwombera nkhondo kwa Haiti, kuti maiko a Haiti am'bwezeretse Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Mu 1974-75, nyukiliya ya China inakakamiza dziko la Portugal kuti lisapereke chigamulo chake kwa Macau. Zitsanzo izi zidaphatikizidwa chifukwa olembawo ankafufuza moona mtima milandu yonse imene dziko la zida za nyukiliya linayendetsedwa m'malo mwa nyukiliya. Koma palibe woganizira kwambiri amene anganene kuti kulandidwa kwa Portugal kapena Dominican Republic ku zida za nyukiliya ku China kapena ku US.

Zonsezi zikuwonetsanso kuti kupeza zida za nyukiliya ndi Iran kapena North Korea sizingatheke kuti maikowa azikakamiza ena, kaya 'zolinga zawo' zili ndi zida zankhondo zakuda kapena nyukiliya.

Ndizomveka kunena kuti kuwononga kwa nyukiliya sikulepheretse, ndipo sikunapereke mphamvu zokhutiritsa - koma zoopsa zake zowonjezereka zimakhala zowonjezereka kwambiri.

Choyamba, kudana ndi zida za nyukiliya sikungatheke. Msilikali wokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya sangakubweretsere wakuba: 'Lekani m'dzina la lamulo, kapena ndidzatiponyera!' Mofananamo, panthawi ya Cold War, akuluakulu a NATO anadandaula kuti midzi ya West Germany inali yosiyana kwambiri ndi zigawo ziwiri - zomwe zinatanthawuza kuti kuteteza Ulaya ndi zida za nyukiliya kudzaipasula, kotero kuti chigamulo chakuti Red Army chidzasokonezedwa ndi njira za nyukiliya chinali kwenikweni zodabwitsa. Chotsatira chake chinali kukonza zida zazing'ono, zolondola zenizeni zomwe zingakhale zogwiritsidwa ntchito, motero, omwe ntchito yawo muvuto ingakhale yodalirika. Koma amagwiritsa ntchito zida zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito, ndipo motero zimakhala zowonjezereka ngati zotsutsa, ndizofunikira kwambiri kugwiritsidwa ntchito.

Chachiwiri, kudziletsa kumafuna kuti zida zonsezi zikhale zovuta kuti zitha kuchitapo kanthu, kapena kuti chiwonongeko choterechi chidzalephereka ngati munthu yemwe ali ndi chiopsezo angapitirize kukhala ndi 'mphamvu yachiwiri' yobwezeretsa, chokwanira kupeŵa nkhondo yoyambayo. Komabe, patapita nthawi, zida za nyukiliya zakhala zowonjezereka bwino, ndikukweza nkhaŵa za chiopsezo cha zidazi kuti zitheke. Mwachidule, mayiko a nyukiliya akutha kuwononga zida za nyukiliya kuti ziwonongeke. M'njira yowonongeka yotsutsa mfundo, izi zimatchedwa kutetezeka kwachinyengo, ndi 'chiopsezo' kutanthauza zida za nyukiliya, osati anthu ake. Zotsatira zabwino kwambiri za zida zankhondo za nyukiliya yomwe ili ndipamwamba kwambiri komanso 'kutetezedwa kwa' counterforce 'ndizochititsa kuti pakhale chiwopsezo choyamba, komanso kuonjezera ngozi yakuti munthu amene akumuvutitsa, poopa chochitika choterocho, akhoza kuyesedwa ndi kukantha kwake koyamba. Zotsatira zake - zomwe mbali iliyonse imazindikira kuti zingakhale zopindulitsa poyambitsa - ndizoopsa.

Chachitatu, ziphunzitso zotsutsa zimakhala zogwirizana kwambiri ndi gawo la osankha zochita. Iwo amaganiza kuti iwo ali ndi zala zawo pa zida za nyukiliya ndi ochita masewera olimbitsa thupi amenenso adzakhalanso bata ndi osadziwa bwino panthawi yomwe akuvutika kwambiri. Zimanenanso kuti atsogoleli azidzasunga mphamvu zawo nthawi zonse, komanso kuti nthawi zonse adzasunga maganizo awo, posankha zochita pokhapokha ngati akuganiza kuti ndalamazo ndizofunika kwambiri. Zolemba zotsutsana zikutsindika mwachidule kuti mbali iliyonse idzawopseza mathalauzawo ndi zotsatira zake zowopsya, zosaganizirika, ndipo zidzatha kuchita bwino ndi zolinga zenizeni komanso zenizeni. Pafupifupi chirichonse chomwe chimadziwika pa maganizo a anthu chimasonyeza kuti izi ndi zopanda pake.

In Mwanawankhosa Wakuda ndi Gulu Falcon: Ulendo Kupyolera Yugoslavia (1941), Rebecca West adanena kuti: 'Ndife gawo limodzi la ife lokha: gawo limodzi la ife limakonda zokondweretsa ndi tsiku lachimwemwe chochuluka, limafuna kukhala ndi moyo wathu wa 90 ndi kufa mwamtendere ...' Sichifuna nzeru ya arcane kudziwa anthu nthawi zambiri amatengera zolakwika, kupsa mtima, kukhumudwa, kupusa, kusamvera, kubwezera, kunyada komanso / kapena kutsimikiza mtima. Komanso, nthawi zina - monga pamene mbali iliyonse yatsimikiziranso kuti nkhondo sichitha kukanika, kapena pamene zovuta kuti tipewe kutaya nkhope zimakhala zovuta kwambiri - zosayenerera, kuphatikizapo wakupha, zingawoneke zoyenera, ngakhale zosapeweka.

Atalamula kuti apite ku Pearl Harbor, mtumiki wa chitetezo ku Japan ananena kuti: 'Nthawi zina m'pofunika kutseka maso ndi kudumpha papulatifomu ku kachisi wa Kiyomizu [malo odziwika odzipha].' Pa Nkhondo Yoyamba Padziko Lonse, Kaiser Wilhelm Wachiwiri wa ku Germany analemba m'mbali mwa chigamulo cha boma kuti: 'Ngakhale titawonongedwa, England ndithu idzataya India.'

Ali m'mabwalo ake, kumapeto kwa nkhondo yachiwiri yapadziko lonse, Adolf Hitler adalamula zomwe adayembekeza kuti chiwonongeko chonse cha Germany, chifukwa adamva kuti a Germany adamulephera.

Talingaliraninso, pulezidenti waku United States yemwe amasonyeza zizindikiro za matenda a maganizo, ndipo mawu ake ndi ma tweets amawopsyeza mofanana ndi maganizo a maganizo a maganizo kapena psychosis weniweni. Atsogoleri a dziko - nyukiliya-zida zankhondo kapena ayi - sagwidwa ndi matenda a maganizo. Komabe, kulepheretsa chiphunzitsochi kumangoganiza mosiyana.

Pomaliza, palibe njira yoti atsogoleri a usilikali kapena asilikali azidziŵa kuti dziko lawo likupeza mphamvu zotani zowonjezera nyukiliya kuti akwaniritse chofunikira chokhala ndi 'kulepheretsa'. Mwachitsanzo, ngati mbali imodzi ikufuna kuthetseratu pangozi, sizingatheke, mosasamala kanthu za kubwezeretsedwa. Kapenanso, ngati mbali imodzi ikutsimikiziridwa ndi udani wosasunthika wa wina, kapena kuti kusaganizira kwake ku imfa, palibe zida zambiri zomwe zingatheke. Sizinali zokhazokha, koma pokhapokha ngati zida zowonjezera zimapanga ndalama zothandizira makampani odzitetezera, ndipo pokhapokha ngati akupanga, kupanga ndi kutumiza "mibadwo" yatsopano ya zinthu zakutsirizira kupita patsogolo, choonadi chotsutsa chiphunzitsocho chidzabisika. Ngakhale mlengalenga si malire; Asilikali akufuna kuyika zida kunja.

Monga zida za nyukiliya zimagwiritsanso ntchito zophiphiritsira, zosowa za maganizo, powonetsa chitukuko cha fuko la mtundu wa dziko ndipo potero kumatsimikizira kuti ndizofunikira kwa atsogoleri omwe sakhala otetezeka ndi mayiko, ndiye kuti, palibe njira yowongoka yokha (kapena kutsekula pazomwe) kukula kwa zida za munthu. Nthawi zina, zowonjezereka zowonjezereka zikutsutsana ndi lamulo lochepetsa kubwerera, kapena ngati Winston Churchill adanena, iwo amangopanga 'kupunthwa kwachinyengo'.

Kuonjezerapo, kudziletsa kumayendedwe ndi oxymoron. Akatswiri a zaumulungu amadziwa kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya silingagwirizane ndi zomwe zimatchedwa 'nkhondo chabe'. Mu 1966, Bungwe lachiŵiri la Vatican Council linamaliza kuti: 'Chilichonse cholimbana ndi nkhondo pakuphwanyidwa kwa mizinda yonse kapena m'madera ambiri pamodzi ndi anthu awo ndizophwanya Mulungu ndi munthu mwiniwake. Zimayenera kukhala mosaganizira komanso osatsutsa chilango. ' Ndipo mu kalata ya abusa ku 1983, mabishopu a ku US Katolika adanenanso kuti: 'Chigamulochi, pakuweruza kwathu, chikugwiritsanso ntchito kubwezeretsa zida zomwe zimapha mizinda ya adani pambuyo pathu. Anapitirizabe, ngati chinachake chilakolako chochita, ndiye kuti ndizochiwerewere. Mu uthenga ku msonkhano wa 2014 Vienna wonena za ubwino wa zida za nyukiliya, Papa Francis adanena kuti: 'Kuteteza kwa nyukiliya ndi kuopseza kuti chiwonongeko chotsimikizirika sichingakhale maziko a chikhalidwe cha ubale ndi mtendere pakati pa anthu ndi mayiko.'

United Methodist Council of Bishops amapita patsogolo kuposa anzawo a Katolika, potsirizira mu 1986 kuti: 'Deterrence sayenera kulandira dalitso la mipingo, ngakhale ngati kalata yochepa yokonza zida za nyukiliya.' Mu Nkhondo Yachilungamo (1968), Paul Luthers, yemwe anali ndi chiphunzitso cha Chipulotesitanti, adapempha owerenga ake kuti aganizire kuti ngozi zapamsewu mumzinda wina mwadzidzidzi zinasanduka zero, pambuyo pake zinapezeka kuti aliyense anafunikila kukamenya mwana wakhanda kwa galimoto iliyonse.

Mwina chinthu choopsa kwambiri pa zowononga nyukiliya ndi njira zambiri zolephereka. Mosiyana ndi zomwe anthu ambiri amaganiza, mwina ndizo 'kutuluka kwa buluu' (BOOB). Pakalipano, pali zoopsa zazikulu zogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi nkhondo yowonjezereka, yogwiritsidwa ntchito mwangozi kapena kosagwiritsidwe ntchito, kusagwiritsa ntchito bwino (ngakhale kungatsutsane kuti aliyense kugwiritsira ntchito zida za nyukiliya sikungakhale zopanda nzeru) kapena zizindikiro zabodza, zomwe zachitika mochititsa mantha nthawi zonse, ndipo zingayambitse 'kubwezera' motsutsana ndi chiwonongeko chomwe sichidachitike. Pakhala pali ngozi zambiri zowonongeka - kuwombera mwangozi, kuwombera, kuba kapena kutayika kwa zida za nyukiliya - komanso nthawi yomwe zochitika ngati gulu la atsekwe, mapaipi a mpweya wa mpweya kapena zolakwika zamakompyuta zamasuliridwa ngati kuwombera misala koopsa.

Zomwe tafotokozazi zikufotokozera zina mwa zolephera ndi zoopsa zomwe zimachitika chifukwa choletsedwa, chiphunzitso chogwiritsira ntchito nuclear hardware, software, deployments, accumulation and acccalation. Kusintha malingaliro - kutsutsana pa zaumulungu - zoletsera sizidzakhala zophweka, koma sizinakhalenso ndi zoopsa za kuwonongeka kwa dziko lonse lapansi. Monga ndakatulo TS Eliot kamodzi adalemba, pokhapokha mutakhala pamwamba pa mutu wanu, mumadziwa bwanji kuti ndinu wamtali bwanji? Ndipo zikafika ku zowonongeka kwa nyukiliya, tonse tiri pamutu mwathu.