Zida Zanyukiliya Izi Zikuika Pangozi Dziko Lapansi

Panthawi yomwe mikangano ikukula pakati pa mphamvu za nyukiliya - Russia ndi NATO ku Ulaya, ndi US, North Korea, ndi China ku Asia - Washington yasintha mwakachetechete zida zake za nyukiliya kuti apange, malinga ndi asayansi atatu otsogola aku America, "ndendende zomwe tingayembekezere kuwona, ngati dziko lokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya likukonzekera kukhala ndi mphamvu zomenyera nkhondo ndi kupambana nkhondo yanyukiliya mwa kuchotsa zida za adani ndikumenya koyamba modzidzimutsa. "

Kulemba mu Bulletin ya Atomic Asayansi, Hans Kristensen, mkulu wa Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists, Matthew McKinzie wa National Resources Defense Council, komanso katswiri wa sayansi ya zida zankhondo Theodore Postol akumaliza kuti "Pansi pa chophimba cha pulogalamu yovomerezeka ya nkhondo yowonjezera moyo. , "gulu lankhondo la US lakulitsa kwambiri "mphamvu yophera" zida zake kotero kuti "tsopano "zikhoza kuwononga nkhokwe zonse za ICBM zaku Russia."

Kukwezaku - gawo la kayendetsedwe ka Obama ka $ 1 thililiyoni zankhondo zanyukiliya zaku America - kulola Washington kuwononga zida zanyukiliya zaku Russia zomwe zili pamtunda, ndikusungabe 80 peresenti ya zida zankhondo zaku US. Ngati Russia idasankha kubwezera, idzakhala phulusa.

Kulephera Kulingalira

Kukambitsirana kulikonse kokhudza nkhondo ya nyukiliya kumakumana ndi mavuto akulu angapo.

Choyamba, n’zovuta kulingalira kapena kumvetsa tanthauzo la moyo weniweniwo. Takhala ndi mkangano umodzi wokha wokhudzana ndi zida za nyukiliya - kuwonongedwa kwa Hiroshima ndi Nagasaki mu 1945 - ndipo kukumbukira zochitikazo kwatha zaka zambiri. Mulimonse mmene zinalili, mabomba aŵiri amene anaphwasula mizinda ya Japan imeneyo sakufanana kwenikweni ndi mphamvu yakupha ya zida zamakono zanyukiliya.

Bomba la Hiroshima linaphulika ndi mphamvu ya 15 kilotons, kapena kt. Bomba la Nagasaki linali lamphamvu kwambiri, pafupifupi 18 kt. Pakati pawo, anapha anthu oposa 215,000. Mosiyana ndi izi, chida chodziwika bwino cha nyukiliya mu zida zankhondo zaku US masiku ano, W76, chili ndi mphamvu yophulika ya 100 kt. Chotsatira chodziwika bwino, W88, chimanyamula nkhonya ya 475-kt.

Vuto lina ndi loti anthu ambiri amaganiza kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ndi yosatheka chifukwa mbali zonse ziwiri zidzawonongedwa. Ili ndilo lingaliro la ndondomeko ya Mutually Assured Destruction, yomwe imatchedwa "MAD."

Koma MAD si chiphunzitso chankhondo cha US. Kuukira "koyamba" kwakhala kofunikira pakukonzekera asitikali aku US, mpaka posachedwa. Komabe, panalibe chitsimikiziro chakuti kuukira koteroko kungapundutse wotsutsa kotero kuti sangathe - kapena wosafuna, atapatsidwa zotsatira za chiwonongeko chonse - kubwezera.

Njira yomenyera nkhondo koyamba - yomwe nthawi zina imatchedwa "kulimbana ndi mphamvu" - sikuwononga malo omwe adani akukhala, koma kuthetsa zida za nyukiliya za mbali zina, kapena zambiri. Ma anti-missile amatha kuletsa kubwezera kofooka.

Kupambana kwaukadaulo komwe kumapangitsa izi kukhala zotheka ndi chinthu chotchedwa "super-fuze", chomwe chimalola kuyatsa kolondola kwa mutu wankhondo. Ngati cholinga chake n’kuphulitsa mzinda, kulondola kumeneku n’kosafunika kwenikweni. Koma kutulutsa silo yolimbitsa thupi kumafuna chida chankhondo kuti chigwiritse ntchito mphamvu zosachepera mapaundi 10,000 pa mainchesi lalikulu pa chandamale.

Kufikira pulogalamu yamakono ya 2009, njira yokhayo yochitira izi inali kugwiritsa ntchito zamphamvu kwambiri - koma zochepa pamawerengero - W88 warhead. Wokhala ndi super-fuze, komabe, W76 yaying'ono tsopano ikhoza kugwira ntchitoyi, kumasula W88 pazolinga zina.

Mwachizoloŵezi, mizinga yochokera pamtunda ndi yolondola kwambiri kuposa mivi yochokera kunyanja, koma zoyambazo zimakhala zosatetezeka ku nkhondo yoyamba kusiyana ndi yotsirizirayi, chifukwa sitima zapamadzi zimabisala bwino. Super-fuze yatsopanoyo sikuwonjezera kulondola kwa mivi yapamadzi ya pansi pamadzi ya Trident II, koma imapanga izi ndikulondola komwe chidacho chimawombera. “Pankhani ya zida zankhondo za 100-kt Trident II,” akulemba asayansi atatuwo, “mphamvu yopha mphamvu ya nyukiliya imene ikugwiritsiridwa ntchito imaŵirikiza katatu.”

Super-fuze isanatumizidwe, ndi 20 peresenti yokha ya ma subs aku US omwe anali ndi kuthekera kowononga ma silo opangidwanso. Masiku ano, onse ali ndi mphamvu zimenezo.

Mivi ya Trident II nthawi zambiri imanyamula zida zinayi mpaka zisanu, koma zimatha kukulitsa mpaka zisanu ndi zitatu. Ngakhale kuti chidachi chimatha kunyamula zida zankhondo za 12, kasinthidwe kameneka kakanaswa mapangano apano a nyukiliya. Sitima zapamadzi zaku US pakadali pano zikutumiza pafupifupi zida zankhondo za 890, pomwe 506 ndi ma W76 ndi 384 ndi ma W88.

Ma ICBM okhala pamtunda ndi Minuteman III, iliyonse ili ndi zida zitatu - 400 yonse - kuyambira 300 kt mpaka 500 kt iliyonse. Palinso mabomba oponya mabomba a nyukiliya okhala ndi mpweya ndi nyanja. Mivi ya Tomahawk yomwe yagunda posachedwa ku Syria ikhoza kukonzedwa kuti ikhale ndi zida zanyukiliya.

The Technology Gap

Super-fuze imawonjezeranso kuthekera kwa nkhondo yanyukiliya mwangozi.

Pakadali pano, dziko lapansi latha kupewa nkhondo ya nyukiliya, ngakhale kuti mu 1962 mkangano wa zida za nyukiliya waku Cuba unayandikira kwambiri. Pakhalanso angapo zochitika zoopsa pamene asilikali a US ndi Soviet anapita kutcheru chifukwa cha zithunzi zolakwika za radar kapena tepi yoyesera yomwe wina ankaganiza kuti inali yeniyeni. Ngakhale asitikali akuchepetsa zochitika izi, Secretary of Defense wakale William Perry akunena kuti ndi mwayi kuti tapewa kusinthana kwa zida za nyukiliya - komanso kuti kuthekera kwa nkhondo ya nyukiliya ndi yaikulu lero kuposa momwe zinalili pa nthawi ya Cold War.

Mwa zina, izi ndichifukwa cha kusiyana kwaukadaulo pakati pa US ndi Russia.

Mu Januwale 1995, radar yaku Russia yochenjeza koyambirira ku Kola Peninsula inanyamula roketi kuchokera pachilumba cha Norway chomwe chimawoneka ngati chikulunjika ku Russia. M'malo mwake, roketiyo idalunjika ku North Pole, koma radar yaku Russia idayiyika ngati mzinga wa Trident II ukubwera kuchokera ku North Atlantic. Zochitikazo zinali zomveka. Pomwe ziwopsezo zina zoyambilira zikuganiza zoponya mivi yochulukirapo, ena amayitanitsa kuti aphulitse mutu waukulu wankhondo pamalo omwe ali pamtunda wamakilomita pafupifupi 800. Kuthamanga kwakukulu kwa ma radiation a electromagnetic komwe kuphulika koteroko kumatulutsa kungasokoneze kapena kulepheretsa makina a radar pamalo ambiri. Izi zikanatsatiridwa ndi sitalaka yoyamba.

Panthaŵiyo, mitu yodekha inali mphamvu ndipo anthu a ku Russia anasiya tcheru, koma kwa mphindi zingapo wotchi ya tsiku lachiwonongeko inayandikira kwambiri pakati pa usiku.

Malinga ndi Bulletin ya Atomic Asayansi, vuto la m’chaka cha 1995 likusonyeza kuti dziko la Russia lilibe “dongosolo lodalirika komanso logwira ntchito padziko lonse lapansi lochenjeza anthu za mlengalenga.” M'malo mwake, Moscow yayang'ana kwambiri kumanga machitidwe oyambira pansi omwe amapatsa anthu aku Russia nthawi yochepa yochenjeza kuposa momwe amachitira pa satelayiti. Zomwe zikutanthauza ndikuti ngakhale US ikanakhala ndi nthawi ya 30 yochenjeza kuti ifufuze ngati kuukira kukuchitikadi, aku Russia adzakhala ndi mphindi 15 kapena zochepa.

Malinga ndi magaziniyo, zimenezo mwina zingatanthauze kuti “atsogoleri a dziko la Russia sakanachitira mwina koma kugawiratu akuluakulu oyendetsa zida za nyukiliya kuti azigwira ntchito zotsika,” zomwe sizingakhale zokomera dziko lililonse.

Kapena, kwenikweni, dziko.

A kafukufuku anapeza kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya pakati pa India ndi Pakistan pogwiritsa ntchito zida za Hiroshima idzapanga nyengo yozizira ya nyukiliya yomwe ingapangitse kuti kulima tirigu ku Russia ndi Canada kusakhale kovuta komanso kuchepetsa mvula ya ku Asia Monsoon ndi 10 peresenti. Chotsatira chake chikanakhala kuti anthu 100 miliyoni afa ndi njala. Tangoganizani zomwe zingachitike ngati zidazo zikadakhala zazikulu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi Russia, China, kapena US

Kwa anthu aku Russia, kukweza zida zoponya zapanyanja zaku US ndi super-fuze kungakhale chitukuko chowopsa. Mwa "kusintha mphamvu zoyendetsa sitima zapamadzi zomwe zimatha kupita kumalo oponya mizinga pafupi kwambiri ndi zomwe akufuna kuposa mizinga yochokera pamtunda," asayansi atatuwa amaliza, "gulu lankhondo la US lakwanitsa kuchita chiwopsezo choyamba chodzidzimutsa motsutsana ndi ICBM yaku Russia. silo."

Sitima yapamadzi ya US Ohio class ili ndi zida 24 za Trident II, zonyamula zida zankhondo zokwana 192. Miviyo imatha kuwulutsidwa pasanathe mphindi imodzi.

Anthu aku Russia ndi aku China alinso ndi sitima zapamadzi zoponya mizinga, koma osati zambiri, ndipo zina zatsala pang'ono kutha. US yabzalanso nyanja ndi nyanja zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi ma sensa kuti azitsatira zomwe zalembedwazo. Mulimonsemo, kodi aku Russia kapena aku China angabwezere ngati atadziwa kuti US ikadasungabe zida zake zambiri zanyukiliya? Poyang'anizana ndi kusankha kudzipha dziko kapena kusunga moto wawo, iwo akhoza kusankha woyamba.

Chinthu china mu pulogalamu yamakonoyi yomwe ili ndi vuto la Russia ndi China ndi chisankho cha olamulira a Obama kuti akhazikitse machitidwe oletsa mizinga ku Ulaya ndi Asia, ndi kuyika machitidwe otetezera zombo za Aegis kuchokera kumphepete mwa nyanja ya Pacific ndi Atlantic. Malinga ndi momwe aku Moscow - komanso a Beijing - olumikizirawo alipo kuti atenge mivi yochepa yomwe kugunda koyamba kungaphonye.

M'malo mwake, machitidwe a antimissile ndi abwino kwambiri. Akachoka pa matabwa ojambulira, mphamvu zawo zakupha zimatsika kwambiri. Zowonadi, ambiri aiwo sangathe kugunda mbali yayikulu ya nkhokwe. Koma si mwayi womwe aku China ndi aku Russia angakwanitse kutenga.

Polankhula pa Msonkhano Wapadziko Lonse wa St. Petersburg mu June 2016, Pulezidenti wa ku Russia, Valdimir Putin, adanena kuti zida za antimissile za US ku Poland ndi Romania sizinali za Iran, koma ku Russia ndi China. "Chiwopsezo cha Iran kulibe, koma zida zodzitetezera ku mizinga zikupitilizabe." Ananenanso kuti, "chitetezo cha mizinga ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zonse zankhondo zowononga."

Kutsegula Mgwirizano wa Arms

Choopsa apa ndi chakuti mapangano a zida ayamba kusokonekera ngati mayiko atsimikiza kuti ali pachiwopsezo mwadzidzidzi. Kwa anthu aku Russia ndi aku China, njira yosavuta yothetsera kupambana kwa America ndikumanga zida zambiri zankhondo ndi zida zankhondo, ndipo mapangano adzathetsedwa.

Chombo chatsopano cha Russian cruise cruise chitha kusokoneza mgwirizano wa Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, koma ndi kuyankha kwachilengedwe ku zomwe, malinga ndi momwe Moscow akuwonera, kupita patsogolo kwaumisiri kowopsa kwa US Kukadakhala kuti olamulira a Obama adasintha chigamulo cha 2002 cha George W. Bush. Oyang'anira kuti achoke ku Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, ulendo watsopanowu mwina sunayendepo.

Pali njira zingapo zomwe US ​​ndi Russia angachite kuti achepetse kusamvana komwe kulipo. Choyamba, kuchotsa zida za nyukiliya pamalo awo owombera tsitsi kungachepetse mwayi wankhondo wanyukiliya mwangozi. Izo zikhoza kutsatiridwa ndi lonjezo la "Osagwiritsa ntchito koyamba" za zida za nyukiliya.

Ngati izi sizichitika, ndiye kuti izi zitha kupangitsa kuti pakhale kufulumira mpikisano wa zida za nyukiliya. “Sindikudziwa mmene zonsezi zidzathere,” Putin anauza nthumwi za ku St. "Chomwe ndikudziwa ndichakuti tifunika kudziteteza."

Wolemba nkhani wa Foreign Policy In Focus Conn Hallinan atha kuwerengedwa pa www.dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com ndi www.middleempireseries.wordpress.com. Kusindikizidwanso ndi chilolezo chochokera Ndondomeko Zakunja Mukuyang'ana.