North Korea: Ndalama za Nkhondo, Zowerengedwa

A Donald Trump akuganiza za nkhondo zomwe zingafanane ndi chilichonse chomwe otsogolera ake adaganizapo.

Wagwetsa amayi a bomba onse ku Afghanistan, ndipo akuganizira za amayi a nkhondo zonse ku Middle East. Akugwira nkhondo yowononga Saudi Arabia ku Yemen. Ambiri ma evangeli alandila chilengezo chake chakuzindikira kwa US kuti Yerusalemu ndiye likulu la Israeli ngati chizindikiro choti kutha kwa masiku kuli pafupi. Mikangano ndi Iran yatsala pang'ono kutenthedwa koyambirira kwa chaka chamawa pomwe a Trump, posagwirizana ndi msonkhano uliwonse, asankhe ngati kukwaniritsa lonjezo lake kuphwanya mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya womwe oyang'anira Obama adagwira ntchito molimbika kuti athe kukambirana ndipo gulu lamtendere lidathandizidwa ndi thandizo lalikulu.

Koma palibe nkhondo yomwe yapeza zodziwikiratu zomwe zikuwoneka ngati kusamvana ndi North Korea. Kuno ku Washington, ma pundits ndi opanga mfundo akukamba za "windo la miyezi itatu" momwe olamulira a Trump angaimitsire North Korea kupeza kuthekera kochita mizinda ya US ndi zida za nyukiliya.

Ndiye kuti akuti amabwera kuchokera ku CIA, ngakhale mthenga ndiye wodalirika John Bolton, yemwe anali wowombera moto wakale wa kazembe wa United States ku UN. Bolton wagwiritsa ntchito kuyerekezera kumeneku kuti apange mlandu wodana ndi North Korea, lingaliro lomwe Trump alinso nalo akuti ozindikira kwambiri.

North Korea, yawalengezanso kuti nkhondo ndi "mfundo yokhazikika." Pambuyo pazomwe achitetezo aposachedwa kwambiri aku US-South Korea m'derali, mneneri ku Unduna wa Zakunja ku Pyongyang anati, "Funso lomwe latsala ndi lakuti: Kodi nkhondo idzayamba liti?"

Izi zikuwonetsa kulepheretsa kusamvana ndi North Korea pamndandanda wofunikira kwambiri wamabungwe onse apadziko lonse lapansi, akazembe ochita nawo ntchito, komanso nzika zokhudzidwa.

Chenjezo lokhudza ndalama zankhondo sizingathandize anthu omwe akufuna Kim Jong Un ndi boma lake kutengera zotsatira (ndi pafupifupi theka la Republican kale thandizani kumenyera koyeserera). Koma kuyerekezera koyambirira kwa kuchuluka kwa chuma, zachuma, komanso chilengedwe pamkhondo kuyenera kupangitsa kuti anthu okwanira aziganiza kawiri, kulimbikitsa kulimbana ndi magulu ankhondo ndi mbali zonse, ndikuthandizira kuyesa kwa malamulo kuti aletse a Trump kuyambitsa mchitidwe wokonzekera popanda kuvomerezedwa ndi msonkhano.

Kuyerekeza koteroko zakusiyana kothekera kungagwiritsenso ntchito ngati njira zitatu - nkhondo, chilungamo pazachuma, ndi chilengedwe - kubwera palimodzi motsutsana ndi zomwe zingabwezeretse zomwe tayambitsa, ndi dziko lonse, ku mibadwo ikubwerayi. .

Sikoyamba koyamba kuti United States ipange zodabwitsa kwambiri. Kodi mtengo wa nkhondo yomaliza ungatithandize kupewa yotsatira?

Kodi Mukuyenera Kubwereza?

Akadakhala kuti Amereka akadadziwa ndalama zomwe azigwiritsa ntchito pomenya nkhondo ya Iraq, mwina sibwenzi atatsogolera gulu lankhondo la Bush kupita kunkhondo. Mwina Congress ikadalimbana nawo kwambiri.

Zowukira ananeneratu kuti nkhondoyi ikhoza kukhala “keke.” Sizinali. Pafupifupi nzika za 25,000 zaku Iraq zidamwalira chifukwa chakuwukira koyamba komanso za magulu ankhondo a 2,000 adafera mu 2005. Koma chimenecho chinali chiyambi chabe. Wolemba 2013, nzika zina za 100,000 zaku Iraq zidamwalira chifukwa cha ziwawa zomwe zikupitilira, malinga Kuyerekezera kosungika kwa Chiwerengero cha Thupi la Iraq, pamodzi ndi gulu lina la mgwirizano wa 2,800 (makamaka aku America).

Kenako panali ndalama zachuma. Asanalowe ku Iraq, oyang'anira Bush zanenedwa kuti nkhondoyi ingotengera $ 50 biliyoni. Uku kunali kulakalaka kwabwino. Zowerengera zenizeni zimadza pambuyo pake.

Atsikana anzanga ku Institute for Policy Studies akuyembekezeredwa mu 2005 kuti bilu ya nkhondo ya ku Iraq ibwera kumapeto kwa $ 700 biliyoni. M'buku lawo la 2008 Nkhondo Zitatu Zidole zitatu, Joseph Stiglitz ndi Linda Bilmes adawerengera zapamwamba kwambiri, zomwe pambuyo pake adasinthiranso mokulira kumka ku $ 5 trillion.

Thupi limawerengeredwa komanso kuwerengera molondola kwachuma kunakhudza kwambiri momwe anthu aku America amawonera Nkhondo ya Iraq. Kuthandizira pagulu pankhondoyo kunali mozungulira 70 peresenti pa nthawi yakuukira kwa 2003. Mu 2002, the kusamvana kwamsonkhano kuvomereza gulu lankhondo motsutsana ndi Iraq kudapitilira Nyumba 296 ku 133 ndi Senate 77-23.

Mwa 2008, komabe, ovota aku America adathandizira kutsimikiza mtima kwa Barack Obama mwa gawo chifukwa chokana kutsutsa. Ambiri mwa anthuwa omwe adathandizira kunkhondo - a ambiri a Seneti, omwe kale anali oyang'anira Francis Fukuyama - anali kunena kuti ngati akadziwa mu 2003 zomwe aphunzira za nkhondoyi, akadakhala mbali ina.

Mu 2016, sianthu ochepa omwe adathandizira a Donald Trump chifukwa chodzikayikira pazokhudza apolisi aku US posachedwapa. Monga purezidenti waku Republican, a Trump adalengeza kuti nkhondo ya Iraq ndi yolakwika ndipo ngakhale kunamizira kuti sanathandizirepo kuwukira. Inali gawo la kuyesayesa kudzipatula pakati pa zigawenga mgulu lake ndi "globalists" ku Democratic Party. Ena owerenga ngakhale anathandizira Lipenga loti "olimbana ndi nkhondo".

Lipenga tsopano likupanga kuti zikhale zosiyana. Akuwonjezera kukhudzidwa kwa US ku Syria, kukwera ku Afghanistan, ndi kukulitsa kugwiritsa ntchito ma drones mu "nkhondo yoopsa."

Koma kulimbana komwe kukubwera ndi North Korea ndikosiyana kwakukulu. Ndalama zomwe akuyembekezeredwa ndizokwera kwambiri kotero kuti kunja kwa a Donald Trump iyemwini, otsimikiza mtima kwambiri otsatira ake a hawjan, komanso othandizira ena ochulukirapo akunja monga Shinzo Abe waku Japan, nkhondo ikadali njira yosasangalatsa. Ndipo komabe, onse North Korea ndi United States ali pa kugunda, yolimbikitsidwa ndi mfundo zokwezeka komanso kutengera zolakwika za kusamveka bwino.

Mwa kuwonetsetsa kuti ndalama zomwe zingachitike pomenya nkhondo ndi North Korea zikudziwika, komabe, ndizotheka kukakamiza boma la US kuti libwerenso.

Kuwonongeka Kwa Anthu

Kusinthana kwa zida za nyukiliya pakati pa United States ndi North Korea kungathetse mavuto onse chifukwa cha miyoyo yomwe yatayika, zachuma zidasokonekera, ndipo chilengedwe chawonongeka.

Mwa iye chochitika chapakatikati in The Washington Post, katswiri wazida zankhondo Jeffrey Lewis akuganiza kuti, ataphulitsa zida zankhondo ku US, North Korea ikhazikitsa zida zanyukiliya khumi ndi ziwiri ku United States. Ngakhale panali zida zodzitetezera zolakwika, koma kuukirabe kumatha kupha anthu miliyoni ku New York kokha ndi 300,000 ina kuzungulira Washington, DC. Lewis akuti:

Pentagon sidzayesa konse kuyesetsa kuchulukitsa anthu ochuluka omwe anaphedwa ku North Korea chifukwa cha nkhondo yayikulu yayikulu. Koma pamapeto, akuluakulu adaganiza kuti, pafupifupi mamiliyoni aku 2 aku America, South Korea, ndi Japan adamwalira pankhondo yanyukiliya ya 2019.

Ngati North Korea itagwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya pafupi ndi kwawo, chiwerengero cha anthu ophedwa chikhoza kukhala chokwera kwambiri: kufa kwa miliyoni awiri ku Seoul ndi Tokyo kokha, malinga kuyerekezera kwatsatanetsatane ku 38North.

Mtengo waumunthu wotsutsana ndi North Korea ungakhale wodabwitsa ngakhale zida za nyukiliya sizilowa chithunzi ndipo dziko la US silingachitike. Kubwerera ku 1994, pamene Bill Clinton anali kuganiza zokomera North Korea, wamkulu wa magulu ankhondo aku US ku South Korea adauza Purezidenti kuti zotsatira zake zitha kukhala zakufa miliyoni miliyoni kuzungulira peninsula yaku Korea.

Lero, Pentagon ziwerengero kuti anthu a 20,000 adzafa tsiku lililonse pamsonkhano wachilendo. Izi zimatengera kuti anthu miliyoni a 25 miliyoni amakhala ku Seoul, komwe kuli mtunda wautali kwambiri wa North Korea. 1,000 wa amangopezeka kumpoto kwa Dera Losungidwa ndi Demilitar.

Zovulala sizingakhale zaku Korea zokha. Palinso magulu ankhondo a 38,000 US omwe ali ku South Korea, kuphatikiza wina wa 100,000 aku America akukhala mdziko muno. Chifukwa chake, nkhondo yokhala ku peninsula yaku Korea ingafanane ndi kuyika pachiwopsezo kuchuluka kwa Achimereka okhala mumzinda womwe ukulu wa Syracuse kapena Waco.

Ndipo kuwerengera uku kwa Pentagon ndiwosamala. Kuneneratu kofala kuposa 100,000 atamwalira m'maola oyamba a 48. Ngakhale chiwerengero chomalizachi sichikupangitsa kuti mankhwala azankhondo azichitika, pomwe ovulala amatha kukwera mamiliyoni ambiri (ngakhale anthu ena akuganiza mopitilira muyeso, palibe umboni kuti North Korea idapanganso zida zachilengedwe).

Pankhondo zonse zoterezi, nzika zaku North Korea zitha kufa zochuluka, monganso kuchuluka kwa nzika zaku Iraq ndi Afghanistan zidamwalira pankhondo ziwirizi. Mu Kalata idapemphedwa a Reps. Ted Lieu (D-CA) ndi Ruben Gallego (DA), a Joint Chiefs of Staff adawonekeratu kuti kuwononga dziko kuyenera kupeza ndikuwononga malo onse anyukiliya. Izi zitha kuwonjezera kuchuluka kwa ovulala aku US komanso North Korea.

Pansi pamzere: Ngakhale nkhondo yokhala ndi zida wamba komanso kudera lachi Korea, ikhoza kuchititsa kuti anthu masauzande ambiri afe ndipo ambiri mwa omwe angathe kufa ali pafupi miliyoni.

Mtengo Wazachuma

Ndizovuta kwambiri kuyerekezera mtengo wachuma womwe ungachitike pamtunda wa Korea. Ndiponso, nkhondo iliyonse yokhudzana ndi zida za nyukiliya ingawononge zachuma kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, tiyeni tigwiritse ntchito zowerengera zowonjezereka zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi nkhondo yanthawi zonse yomwe ili yoletsedwa ku Korea kokha.

Kulingalira kulikonse kuyenera kulingalira za kutukuka kwachuma cha anthu aku South Korea. Malinga ndikuyerekezera kwa GDP kwa 2017, South Korea ndi Chuma chachikulu cha 12th padziko lapansi, kuseri kwa Russia. Komanso kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa Asia ndiye gawo lachuma kwambiri padziko lapansi. Nkhondo yachigawo cha Korea ingasokonekere chuma cha China, Japan, ndi Taiwan. Chuma cha padziko lonse lapansi chikhoza kusokonekera kwambiri.

Analemba Anthony Fensom in Chidwi cha Dziko:

Kugwa kwa 50 peresenti mu GDP ya ku South Korea kungathe kutsitsa GDP yapadziko lonse, pomwe zingakhale kusokonekera kwakukulu pakuyenda kwamalonda.

South Korea ndi yolumikizidwa kwambiri kumagulu am'deralo komanso padziko lonse lapansi, omwe akhoza kusokonezeka kwambiri ndi mikangano iliyonse. Capital Economics imawona Vietnam ngati yomwe ikukhudzidwa kwambiri, popeza imachokera kuzungulira 20 peresenti ya katundu wake wapakatikati wochokera ku South Korea, koma China imachokera ku 10 peresenti, pomwe ena oyandikana nawo ena ku Asia angakhudzidwe.

Komanso lingalirani ndalama zowonjezera zotha kuthawa kwawo. Germany yokha idawononga $ Biliyoni 20 pothawira kwawo ku 2016. Kusefukira kochokera ku North Korea, dziko lomwe lili ochulukirapo kuposa Syria kudali ku 2011, litha kukhala lofanananso ndi mamiliyoni ngati nkhondo yapachiweniweni itabuka, nkhondo itayamba, kapena boma litagwa. China ndi kumanga kale malo othawa kwawo m'malire ake ndi North Korea - zingachitike. Onse ku China ndi South Korea adavutikapo kuyang'anira chosungira monga momwe ziliri - ndipo ndizokhazokha 30,000 kumwera ndi china chofanana ku China.

Tsopano tiyeni tiwone mitengo yake yeniyeni ku United States. Mtengo wa magwiridwe ankhondo ku Iraq - Operation Iraqi Ufulu ndi Opaleshoni New Dawn - anali $ 815 biliyoni kuchokera ku 2003 ngakhale 2015, zomwe zimaphatikizapo ntchito zankhondo, kumanganso, kuphunzitsa, thandizo lakunja, ndi phindu laumoyo wa akatswiri.

Pankhani ya zochitika zankhondo, United States yatsutsa, papepala, gulu lankhondo laku North Korea katatu zomwe Saddam Hussein adalemba mu 2003. Apanso, papepala, North Korea ilinso ndi zida zodabwitsa kwambiri. Asitikali, komabe, akuperewera, pali mafuta ochepa kwa omwe amaphulitsa ndi akasinja, ndipo machitidwe ambiri alibe. Pyongyang adayesa kuthamangitsa gawo la zida za nyukiliya chifukwa padakali pachiwopsezo chotere polimbana ndi zida wamba poyerekeza ndi South Korea (osatchula magulu ankhondo aku US ku Pacific). Chifukwa chake ndizotheka kuti kumenyedwa koyamba kumatha kubweretsanso zomwezo monga salvo yoyamba mu Nkhondo ya Iraq.

Koma ngakhale ulamulilo wankhanza wa Kim Jong Un uli, anthu sangalandire asirikali aku America ndi manja otseguka. An obwebweta kufananizira zomwe zidachitika nkhondo ya ku Iraq ikadzayamba, zomwe zikadapangitsa kuti United States iwonongeke kwambiri ndi moyo komanso ndalama.

Koma ngakhale pakalibe inshuwaransi, mtengo wa ntchito yankhondo uchepa poyerekeza ndi mtengo womanganso. Ndalama zomanganso dziko la South Korea, lomwe ndi dziko lotukuka kwambiri, lingakhale lalitali kwambiri kuposa ku Iraq kapena ku Afghanistan. United States idawononga pafupifupi $ 60 biliyoni poyambirira kumanganso nkhondo ku Iraq (ambiri aiwo anangowononga kudzera muchinyengo), komanso lamulo lomasula dzikolo ku Islamic State likuyenda pafupi ndi $ 150 biliyoni.

Onjezani kuti ndalama zowonongera dziko la North Korea, zomwe zimawonongetsa ndalama zambiri osachepera $ 1 thililiyoni (mtengo wolumikizanitsidwa) koma zingatero baluni mpaka $ 3 trillion pambuyo pa nkhondo yowononga. Nthawi zambiri, dziko la South Korea liziyembekezeredwa kuti lipereke ndalama izi, koma sizingachitike ngati dziko lonselo litawonongedwa ndi nkhondo.

Kuwonongera gawo lankhondo komanso kumanganso nkhondo zitatha. Mtengo wautali - ndalama zomwe zikadagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga zomangamanga, maphunziro, chisamaliro chaumoyo - zingakhale zinanso. Nkhondoyo ikanapangitsa kuti America iwongenso.

Pansi pamzere: Ngakhale nkhondo yocheperako ndi North Korea ikadawononga United States kopitilira $ 1 thililiyoni molingana ndi ntchito yankhondo ndi kumangidwanso, komanso mwanjira zina chifukwa cha zovuta zachuma padziko lonse lapansi.

Mtengo Wachilengedwe

Pankhani yokhudza zachilengedwe, nkhondo yankhondo ingakhale yoopsa. Ngakhale kusinthitsa kwakanthawi kanyukiliya kungayambitse dontho lofunika mu kutentha kwapadziko lonse - chifukwa cha zinyalala ndi mwaye womwe umaponyedwa mumlengalenga womwe umatchinga dzuwa - womwe ungachititse kupanga padziko lonse lapansi chakudya kukhala pamavuto.

Ngati United States itayesa kutenga zida zanyukiliya ku North Korea ndi malo, makamaka omwe atayikidwa pansi, idzayesedwa kwambiri kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya poyamba. "Kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya ku North Korea kuli ndi malire, komanso zida wamba." Akufotokoza Sam Gardiner adapuma pantchito. M'malo mwake, olamulira a Trump atembenukira ku zida za "kupha anthu osaka" omwe amawombera kunkhondo zanyukiliya pafupi ndi peninsula ya Korea.

Ngakhale North Korea ikulephera kubwezera, zankhondo zoyeserera izi zili ndi chiwopsezo chawo chovulaza anthu ambiri. Kutulutsidwa kwa ma radiation - kapena othandizira owopsa, pakachitika chiwopsezo pazosungiramo zida zamankhwala - kumatha kupha anthu mamiliyoni ambiri ndikupereka matikiti akuluakulu amtunda osakhazikika malinga ndi zinthu zingapo (zokolola, kuphulika kwakukulu, nyengo nyengo). malinga ku Union of Concerned Scientists.

Ngakhale nkhondo yanthawi zonse yomenyedwera dera la Korea ingawononge chilengedwe. Kuukira kwapadziko lonse lapansi ku North Korea, ndikutsatira kumenya kubwezera ku South Korea, kumatha kuwononga magawo akuluakulu a gawo kuzungulira mphamvu ndi maofesi amakankhwala ndi kuwononga chilengedwe chosalimba (monga Bio-Various Demilitarised Zone). Kugwiritsa ntchito zida za uranium zomwe zatha ndi United States, monga zidachitikira ku 2003, zitha kuwononga chilengedwe komanso thanzi.

Pansi pamzere: Nkhondo iliyonse ku chilumba cha Korea ikhoza kusokoneza chilengedwe, koma kuyesa kuthana ndi nyukiliya ya North Korea kungakhale koopsa.

Kupewa Nkhondo

Pangakhale mitengo inanso yankhondo yolumikizidwa ndi kuukira ku North Korea. Chifukwa chotsutsana ndi nkhondo ya Purezidenti waku South Korea, a Moon Jae-in, United States idzaletsa mgwirizano wake ndi dzikolo mpaka pakutha. Boma la a Trump likukhudza malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi komanso mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi ngati United Nations. Ikulimbikitsanso mayiko ena kuti akhazikitse zokambirana m'malo mwake ndikutsata "njira" zankhondo m'magawo awo adziko lapansi.

Ngakhale boma lisanatenge udindo, mitengo yankhondo padziko lonse lapansi inali yokwera mosavomerezeka. Malinga ndi Institute for Economics and Peace, dziko limagwiritsa ntchito $ 13 trillion pachaka pamikangano, yomwe imagwira ntchito pafupifupi 13 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse.

United States ikamenya nkhondo ndi North Korea, iponya mawerengero onse pazenera. Sipanakhalepo nkhondo pakati pa mphamvu za zida za nyukiliya. Sipanakhale nkhondo yankhondo konseko m'dera lotukuka kwazaka zambiri. Mtengo wa anthu, zachuma, komanso chilengedwe udzakhala wodabwitsa.

Nkhondo iyi siitha.

Utsogoleri waku North Korea ukudziwa kuti, chifukwa amayang'anizana ndi mphamvu zambiri, mikangano iliyonse imakhala yodzipha. Pentagon imazindikiranso kuti, chifukwa chiopsezo chazovuta zankhondo zaku US ndi allies aku US ndizokwera kwambiri, nkhondo siyili pachiwonetsero cha dziko la US. Secretary of Defense James Mattis amavomereza kuti nkhondo ndi North Korea sichingakhale njira yopanda pake ndipo zingakhale "zoopsa."

Ngakhale oyang'anira a Trump kuwunikira kwanu mwanzeru Vuto laku North Korea silinaphatikizepo kulowererapo kwa asirikali kapena kusintha kwa maulamuliro monga malingaliro motsatana ndi kukakamizidwa kwakukulu ndi kuchita zandale. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson ali posachedwapa akuti kuti Washington ndiwokonzeka kukambirana ndi Pyongyang "popanda mapangidwe," kusintha kofunikira pakukambirana njira.

Mwina panthawi ino ya tchuthi, a Donald Trump adzachezeredwa ndi mizukwa ya Khrisimasi Yakale komanso Tsogolo la Khrisimasi. Mzukwa kuyambira kale uzimukumbukiranso za mavuto omwe angapewe nkhondo ya Iraq. Mzukwa kuchokera kutsogolo udzamuwonetsa malo owonongeka a peninsula yaku Korea, manda akulu a anthu akufa, chuma chosakaza cha US, komanso chilengedwe padziko lapansi.

Ponena za mzimu wa Khrisimasi Present, mzukwa yemwe amakhala ndi chisangalalo chopanda kanthu komanso choyipa ndipo akuimira mtendere padziko lapansi, ndife mzimu. Zikuyenera kukhala pamtendere, chilungamo pazachuma, komanso kayendetsedwe ka chilengedwe kuti timvekere, kukumbutsa purezidenti wa US ndi othandizira ake a hawjan za zovuta zamtsogolo, kukakamira mayankho pazokambirana, komanso kuponyera mchenga m'miyeso ya makina ankhondo.

Tinayesa ndikulephera kuletsa Nkhondo ya Iraq. Tidakali ndi mwayi woletsa nkhondo yachiwiri yaku Korea.