Wolemba Richard E. Rubenstein, Kudutsa Media Service, September 5, 2022
Kuyamba kwa nkhondo yaku Russia-Ukraine mu February 2022 kunawonetsa kusintha komwe kukuchitika kale kunthawi yatsopano komanso yowopsa ya mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi. Nkhondo yokhayo inali makamaka ya Kumadzulo, yosangalatsa kwambiri kwa maphwando apafupi komanso ogulitsa aku Ukraine aku Europe ndi North America. Koma zidayamba chifukwa cha ubale womwe ukusokonekera kwambiri pakati pa United States, yomwe ikupitilizabe kulamulira dziko lonse lapansi, ndi adani ake akale a Cold War, Russia ndi China. Zotsatira zake, mkangano wachigawo womwe ukanathetsedwa mwina ndi zokambirana zanthawi zonse kapena zokambilana zothetsa mavuto pakati pa maphwando omwe angotsala pang'ono kutha, zidakhala zosatha, popanda mayankho achangu.
Kwa kanthawi, kulimbana pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine kunalimbitsa ubale pakati pa United States ndi Europe, ndikulimbitsa gawo lalikulu la US mu "mgwirizano" umenewo. Ngakhale kuti zipani zomwe ena adazitcha "Nkhondo Yatsopano Yamawu" zidawonjezera ndalama zawo zankhondo ndi chidwi chamalingaliro, ena ofuna udindo Wamphamvu Yaikulu monga Turkey, India, Iran, ndi Japan adayesetsa kuti apindule kwakanthawi. Panthawiyi, nkhondo ya ku Ukraine inayamba kuganiza kuti ndi "mkangano wozizira," ndi Russia ikugonjetsa madera ambiri a Donbas, olankhula Chirasha, pamene US inatsanulira mabiliyoni a madola pa zida zapamwamba, nzeru, ndi maphunziro. ku nyumba yankhondo ya boma la Kiev.
Nthawi zambiri zimachitika, kutulukira kwa mitundu yatsopano ya mikangano kudadabwitsa openda, zida zawo zofotokozera zidapangidwa kuti zifotokozere njira zomenyera zakale. Chotsatira chake, malo osinthikawo sanamvetsetsedwe bwino ndipo zoyesayesa zothetsa mikangano zinalibe. Pankhani ya nkhondo ya ku Ukraine, mwachitsanzo, nzeru zachizoloŵezi zinali kuti "mkangano wopweteka," popanda chipani chilichonse chomwe chingathe kupambana koma mbali iliyonse ikuvutika kwambiri, imapangitsa kuti mkanganowu ukhale "wokonzeka kuthetsa" kudzera. kukambirana. (onani I. William Zartman, Kukhwimitsa Njira Zolimbikitsa). Koma panali mavuto awiri pakupanga uku:
- Mitundu yatsopano yankhondo yocheperako yokhala ndi kuletsa kugwiritsiridwa ntchito kwa zida zamakono, pamene kupha kapena kuvulaza zikwi ndi kuwononga kwambiri katundu ndi chilengedwe, kunachepetsabe kuvutika kumene kukanayembekezeredwa m’nkhondo yapakati pa anansi. Pamene dera la Donbas linaphulika, ogula adadya ku Kiev. Ngakhale kuti kuphedwa kwa Russia kunkawonjezeka ndipo mayiko a Kumadzulo adaika chilango ku boma la Putin, nzika za RFSR zinali ndi moyo wamtendere komanso wotukuka.
Komanso, mosiyana ndi mabodza aku Western, kupatulapo zochepa zomvetsa chisoni Russia sanachite ziwopsezo zazikulu mopanda tsankho kwa anthu wamba ku Ukraine, komanso a ku Ukraine sanayambitse ziwonetsero zambiri kunja kwa Donbas. Kudziletsa kwapang'onopang'ono kumeneku kumbali zonse ziwiri (kuti musachepetse zoopsa zomwe zachitika chifukwa cha kufa kosafunikira kwa masauzande ambiri) zikuwoneka kuti zachepetsa "kupweteka" kwakukulu komwe kumafunikira kuti pakhale "mkangano wovulazana." Kusuntha kumeneku kuzomwe zingatchedwe "nkhondo yapang'onopang'ono" kungawoneke ngati gawo la kusintha kwa asilikali komwe kunayamba ku US pambuyo pa nkhondo ya Vietnam ndi kulowetsa asilikali olembedwa ndi "odzipereka" ndikulowa m'malo mwa asilikali apansi ndi luso lapamwamba. zida zamlengalenga, zankhondo, ndi zida zapamadzi. Chodabwitsa n’chakuti, kuchepetsa kuzunzika kosapiririka kochititsidwa ndi nkhondo kwatsegula chitseko cha nkhondo zapang’ono monga chinthu chopiririka, chothekera chokhazikika cha mfundo zakunja za Mphamvu Yaikulu.
- Kulimbana kwanuko ku Ukraine kudasokoneza ndikutsitsimutsanso mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi, makamaka pamene United States idaganiza zovomereza chifukwa chotsutsana ndi Russia ndikutsanulira mabiliyoni a madola mu zida zapamwamba ndi zanzeru m'nkhokwe za boma la Kiev. Chifukwa chomwe chidanenedwa chankhondoyi, malinga ndi akuluakulu a boma la Biden, chinali "kufooketsa" Russia ngati mpikisano wapadziko lonse lapansi ndikuchenjeza China kuti US ingakane chilichonse chaku China chotsutsana ndi Taiwan kapena zolinga zina zaku Asia zomwe amaziona ngati zankhanza. Chotsatira chake chinali cholimbikitsa mtsogoleri wa Chiyukireniya, Zelensky, kunena kuti dziko lake silingagwirizane ndi Russia pa nkhani zotsutsana (ngakhale pa nkhani ya Crimea), ndikuti cholinga cha dziko lake chinali "chipambano." Munthu samadziwa, ndithudi, pamene mtsogoleri amene amalalikira chipambano pa mtengo uliwonse adzasankha kuti dziko lake lalipira mokwanira ndi kuti ndi nthawi yoti tikambirane za kuchepetsa kutayika ndi kukulitsa phindu. Komabe, polemba izi, a Putin kapena a Zelensky sanafune kunena mawu okhudza kuthetsa mkangano womwe ukuwoneka kuti sutha.
Kuperewera kwachinthu kwachiŵiri kumeneku kwachititsa kuti pakhale mtendere wochuluka kuposa kusamvetsetsana kwa nkhondo zapang'ono. Ngakhale ochirikiza a Western hegemony amapeza njira zolungamitsira thandizo lankhondo la US ndi Europe la "demokalase" motsutsana ndi "autocracies" ndi malingaliro aku Russia monga Alexander Dugin amalota za Great Russia yotsitsimutsidwa, akatswiri ambiri amaphunziro amtendere ndi mikangano amakhalabe odzipereka pakuwunika kudziwika- Kulimbana kwamagulu monga njira yomvetsetsa mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso kusamvana kwapakati. Akatswiri ena amtendere apeza magwero atsopano a mikangano monga kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe, mavuto azachipatala padziko lonse, ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, koma ambiri akupitirizabe kunyalanyaza vuto la ufumu ndi kutuluka kwa mikangano yatsopano pakati pa omwe angakhale hegemons. (Chosiyana kwambiri ndi kusaonera patali uku ndi ntchito ya Johan Galtung, yemwe buku lake la 2009, Kugwa kwa Ufumu wa US - Ndipo Ndiye Chiyani? TRANSCEND University Press, tsopano zikuwoneka ngati ulosi.)
Kusayang'ana kwakukulu kwa imperialism ndi kusinthasintha kwake kuli ndi zifukwa zochokera m'mbiri ya maphunziro a mikangano, koma miyeso yake ya ndale iyenera kudziwika ngati tikuyembekeza kuthana ndi zofooka zoonekeratu za kayendetsedwe ka mtendere tikakumana ndi mikangano monga Russia vs. Ukraine. ndi NATO kapena US ndi ogwirizana nawo motsutsana ndi China. Makamaka Kumadzulo, kugawanika kwa ndale zamakono kumapangitsa kuti pakhale zikhalidwe ziwiri zazikulu: anthu omwe ali ndi malingaliro abwino omwe malingaliro awo ndi a ethno-nationalist ndi isolationist, ndi centrism otsamira kumanzere omwe malingaliro ake ndi cosmopolitan ndi globalist. Palibe chizoloŵezi chomwe chimamvetsetsa mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi yomwe ikubwera kapena kukhala ndi chidwi chofuna kukhazikitsa mtendere wapadziko lonse lapansi. Ufulu umalimbikitsa kupeŵa nkhondo zosafunikira, koma utundu wake umatsutsa kudzipatula; motero, atsogoleri a mapiko amanja amalalikira kukonzekera kwakukulu kwa usilikali ndikulimbikitsa "chitetezo" motsutsana ndi adani achikhalidwe. Kumanzere ndi imperialist mwachidziwitso kapena mosadziwa, malingaliro omwe amawafotokozera pogwiritsa ntchito chilankhulo cha "utsogoleri" ndi "udindo" wapadziko lonse lapansi komanso pansi pa ma rubriki a "mtendere kudzera mumphamvu" ndi "udindo woteteza."
Otsatira ambiri a Democratic Party ku US amalephera kuzindikira kuti Boma la Biden lomwe lilipo pano ndi lomenyera ufulu wachifumu waku America ndipo limathandizira kukonzekera nkhondo ku China ndi Russia; kapena akumvetsa izi, koma amawona ngati nkhani yaying'ono poyerekeza ndi chiwopsezo cha neo-fascism yapakhomo ndi la Donald Trump. Momwemonso, ambiri othandizira maphwando akumanzere ndi kumanzere ku Europe amalephera kumvetsetsa kuti NATO pakadali pano ndi nthambi ya zida zankhondo zaku US komanso mwina kukhazikitsidwa kwankhondo ndi mafakitale ku ufumu watsopano waku Europe. Kapenanso amakayikira izi koma amawona kukwera ndikukula kwa NATO kudzera m'magalasi audani ndi kukayikira kwa anthu aku Russia komanso kuopa kusuntha kwa anthu abwino monga a Viktor Orban ndi Marine Le Pen. Mulimonse momwe zingakhalire, chotulukapo chake nchakuti ochirikiza mtendere wapadziko lonse amakonda kukhala olekanitsidwa ndi madera a m’dziko limene angagwirizane nawo.
Kudzipatula kumeneku kwakhala kodziwika makamaka pankhani ya kayendetsedwe ka mtendere kudzera muzokambirana ku Ukraine, zomwe sizinapezeke kwenikweni m'dziko lililonse lakumadzulo. Zowonadi, olimbikitsa amphamvu kwambiri pazokambirana zamtendere, kupatula akuluakulu a United Nations, amakhala okhudzana ndi mayiko aku Middle East ndi Asia monga Turkey, India, ndi China. Chifukwa chake, kuchokera kumayiko akumadzulo, funso lomwe limakwiyitsa kwambiri komanso lomwe likufunika kuyankhidwa ndi momwe mungagonjetsere kudzipatula kwa magulu amtendere.
Mayankho awiri amadziwonetsera okha, koma lililonse limabweretsa mavuto omwe amabweretsa kufunikira kokambirananso:
Yankho loyamba: kukhazikitsa mgwirizano pakati pa omenyera mtendere akumanzere ndi kumanja. Omenyera ufulu wankhondo ndi asosholisti atha kulumikizana ndi odzipatula okha komanso omasuka kuti apange mgwirizano wamagulu olimbana ndi nkhondo zakunja. M'malo mwake, mgwirizano wamtunduwu nthawi zina umakhalapo pompopompo, monga ku United States panthawi yomwe idawukira Iraq mu 2003. Chovuta, ndithudi, n'chakuti izi ndi zomwe Marxists amachitcha "malo ovunda" - bungwe la ndale lomwe, chifukwa limapeza zifukwa zodziwika pa nkhani imodzi yokha, liyenera kusweka pamene nkhani zina zakhala zikudziwika. Kuphatikiza apo, ngati ntchito yodana ndi nkhondo ikutanthauza kuzula zimayambitsa za nkhondo komanso kutsutsana ndi magulu ena ankhondo omwe alipo, zomwe zili mu "bloc bloc" sizingagwirizane za momwe angadziwire ndi kuchotsa zomwe zimayambitsa.
Yankho lachiwiri: sinthani chipani chomenyera ufulu wakumanzere kuti chikhale cholimbikitsa mtendere wodana ndi ufumu, kapena kugawaniza zomwe zatsala kukhala zigawo zolimbikitsa nkhondo komanso zotsutsana ndi nkhondo ndikugwira ntchito kuti ateteze ukulu wake. Cholepheretsa kuchita izi sikungoopa kutengeka kwa mapiko amanja komwe tatchulidwa pamwambapa koma kufooka kwa msasa wamtendere. mkati mapiko akumanzere. Ku US, ambiri "opita patsogolo" (kuphatikiza omwe adadzozedwa okha a Democratic Socialists) akhala chete pankhondo yaku Ukraine, mwina chifukwa choopa kudzipatula pazinthu zapakhomo kapena chifukwa chovomereza zomveka zomenyera nkhondo yolimbana ndi "nkhanza zaku Russia. .” Izi zikuwonetsa kufunikira kosiyana ndi omanga maufumu ndi kumanga mabungwe odana ndi capitalist odzipereka kuthetsa imperialism ndikupanga mtendere padziko lonse lapansi. Izi is njira yothetsera vutoli, makamaka mwachidziwitso, koma ngati anthu angasonkhanitsidwe mu ziwerengero zokwanira kuti akhazikitse panthawi ya "nkhondo yapang'onopang'ono" ndizokayikitsa.
Izi zikusonyeza kugwirizana pakati pa mitundu iwiri yomwe ikubwera ya mikangano yachiwawa yomwe takambirana kale. Nkhondo zamtundu wamtunduwu zomwe zikumenyedwa ku Ukraine zitha kusokoneza mikangano yapakati pa mafumu ngati apakati pa mgwirizano wa US / Europe ndi Russia. Izi zikachitika amakhala mikangano "yozizira" yomwe imatha kukulirakulira kwambiri - ndiko kuti, kupita kunkhondo yathunthu - ngati mbali iliyonse ikukumana ndi kugonjetsedwa koopsa, kapena ngati mikangano yapakati pa mafumu ikukulirakulira. Mikangano yapakati pa mafumu ingathe kuganiziridwa mwina ngati kutsitsimula kwa Cold War yotheka kutha, kumlingo wina, ndi njira zolepheretsa zomwe zidachitika kale, kapena ngati kulimbana kwatsopano komwe kumayambitsa zoopsa zatsopano, kuphatikiza zokulirapo. ngozi yakuti zida za nyukiliya (kuyambira ndi zida zotsika mtengo) zidzagwiritsidwa ntchito mwina ndi magulu akuluakulu kapena ogwirizana nawo. Lingaliro langa lomwe, lomwe lidzakambidwe m'nkhani yamtsogolo, ndikuti likuyimira kulimbana kwatsopano komwe kumawonjezera kwambiri ngozi yankhondo yanyukiliya yamphamvu.
Lingaliro laposachedwa lomwe munthu angatenge kuchokera ku izi ndikuti pakufunika kufunikira kwa akatswiri amtendere kuzindikira mitundu yomwe ikubwera ya mikangano yapadziko lonse lapansi, kusanthula mikangano yatsopano, ndikupeza mfundo zothandiza kuchokera pakuwunikaku. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, olimbikitsa mtendere ayenera kuzindikira mwamsanga zomwe zimayambitsa kufooka kwawo ndi kudzipatula komanso kukonza njira zowonjezera chikoka chawo pakati pa anthu komanso ochita zisankho omwe angatheke. Muzoyesayesa izi zokambirana zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi zochita zake zidzakhala zofunika kwambiri, popeza dziko lonse lapansi potsiriza, ndipo moyenerera, likuchoka m'manja mwa Kumadzulo.
