Nthano ya Chitetezo cha Mizinga

Fkapena pafupifupi a m'zaka za zana lino, maboma ndi magulu awo ankhondo apempha thandizo kwa asayansi ndi mainjiniya kuti apange zida, kupanga zida zodzitetezera, ndikulangiza pakugwiritsa ntchito ndi kutumiza.

Tsoka ilo, zenizeni zasayansi ndiukadaulo sizigwirizana nthawi zonse ndi mfundo zomwe andale ndi akuluakulu amawakonda. Kalelo mu 1950s, akuluakulu ena a US ankakonda kulengeza kuti asayansi ayenera kukhala "pampopi, osati pamwamba": mwa kuyankhula kwina, okonzeka kupereka uphungu wothandiza pakafunika, koma osapereka malangizo omwe amatsutsana ndi mzere wovomerezeka. Maganizo amenewa akupitirizabe mpaka pano, koma asayansi akaniratu kuchita nawo zimenezi.

M'modzi mwa atsogoleri odziwika bwino okana izi ndi Theodore "Ted" Postol, pulofesa wotuluka pa sayansi, ukadaulo, ndi mfundo zachitetezo cha dziko ku MIT. Wophunzitsidwa ngati katswiri wa sayansi ya zakuthambo komanso mainjiniya a nyukiliya, Postol wakhala akugwira ntchito yokhazikika mwatsatanetsatane zaukadaulo wankhondo ndi chitetezo. Anagwira ntchito ku Congress mu Office of Technology Assessment yomwe tsopano yatha, kenako ku Pentagon monga mlangizi wa Chief of Naval Operations asanalowe nawo maphunziro, poyamba ku yunivesite ya Stanford ndikubwerera ku alma mater, MIT.

Nthawi zonse, wakhala wotsutsa mosapita m’mbali Malingaliro osatheka, malingaliro osatheka, ndi malingaliro olephera aukadaulo, kuphatikiza dongosolo la Ronald Reagan la "Star Wars", mizinga yodziwika bwino ya Patriot pankhondo yoyamba ya Gulf War, komanso malingaliro aposachedwa achitetezo a missile a intercontinental oyesedwa ndi US kudzinyenga, kunamizira, kafukufuku wolakwika, ndi chinyengo chenicheni chochokera ku Pentagon, ma laboratories amaphunziro ndi apadera, ndi Congress.

Titakumana naye, tidapeza kuti, m'malo mopuma pantchito ali ndi zaka 70, akukonzekera kupita ku Germany kukakambirana ndi Unduna wa Zakunja waku Germany pa ubale wa European-Russian. Ntchito yake ikuchitira chitsanzo chowonadi chamuyaya kuti ngati china chake chikuwoneka bwino kwambiri kuti chitha kukhala chowona, nthawi zambiri chimakhala. Mukusinthana pansipa, mayankho ake adasinthidwa kuti azikhala motalika komanso momveka bwino.

Zoyipa - US yakhala ikuyesetsa mtundu wina wachitetezo motsutsana ndi zida zoponyera zida kuyambira Sputnik ku 1957. Monga wotsutsa lingaliroli, kodi mungafotokoze chifukwa chake chitetezo chothandiza kwambiri polimbana ndi mizinga yomwe ikubwera sikutheka kwenikweni mwaukadaulo?

Ted Postol - Pankhani ya chitetezo cha mizinga yamtundu wa United States ikumanga, zinthu zonse zomwe zingawonedwe ndi zolumikizira zingawoneke ngati nsonga za kuwala. Pokhapokha ngati cholumikizira chili ndi chidziwitso choyambirira, monga nsonga zina zowala kukhala ndi kuwala kodziwika bwino poyerekeza ndi zina, ilibe njira yodziwira zomwe ikuyang'ana ndipo zotsatira zake, zomwe zikuyenera kukhalamo.

Lingaliro lolakwika lodziwika bwino ndilakuti, ngati njira zotsutsanazi zitheka, zida zankhondo ndi zonyenga ziyenera kuwoneka zofanana. Zomwe zimafunikira ndikuti zinthu zonse ziziwoneka mosiyana komanso kuti palibe chidziwitso chazomwe mungayembekezere. Chotsatira chake, mdani akhoza kusintha mawonekedwe a mutu wa nkhondo (mwachitsanzo mwa kutulutsa buluni mozungulira) ndikusintha maonekedwe ake kuti akhale kutali. Ngati mdani amatha kupanga ma ICBM ndi zida za nyukiliya, mdaniyo ali ndi luso lopanga ndi kutumiza mabuloni, komanso kuchita zinthu zosavuta kuti asinthe maonekedwe a zida zankhondo. Ukadaulo wogwiritsa ntchito zoyeserera zotere ndiwofatsa kwambiri pomwe ukadaulo wothana nawo kulibe - palibe sayansi yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi akatswiri omwe angalole chitetezo kudziwa chomwe chikuwona.

Kotero kutsutsa kwanga ku chitetezo cha mizinga yapamwamba yomwe ikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi United States ndi yosavuta - alibe mwayi wotsutsana ndi mdani aliyense amene ali ndi chidziwitso chochepa pa zomwe akuchita.

UD - Kodi dongosolo la zisudzo la NATO lili pati? Obama adaletsa ntchito imodzi yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ndi Purezidenti George W. Bush, koma mukuganiza kuti ikuyenera kutsatiridwa mwamphamvu ndi oyang'anira atsopano ku Washington?

TP - Chitetezo cha missile chamakono cha NATO chiri chamoyo ndipo chili bwino. Chitetezo cha missilechi chimamangidwa mozungulira mzinga wosinthidwa kuchokera kumlengalenga kupita kumlengalenga womwe umadziwika kuti Standard Missile-3 (SM-3). Lingaliro loyambirira linali loyambitsa ma interceptors kuchokera Aegis cruisers ndikugwiritsa ntchito ma radar a Aegis kuzindikira zida zoponya ndi zida zankhondo ndikuwongolera zolumikizira. Komabe, zikuwoneka kuti ma radar a Aegis sakanatha kuzindikira ndikutsata mizinga ya ballistic pautali wokwanira kuti alole nthawi yoti cholumikiziracho chiwuluke ndikuchita chandamale.

Funso labwino kufunsa ndilakuti a US akanasankha bwanji kupanga ndikugwiritsa ntchito kachitidwe kotere koma osadziwa kuti zinali choncho. Kufotokozera kumodzi ndikuti kusankhidwa kwa zida zoteteza zida kumangoyang'aniridwa ndi ndale ndipo motero, palibe amene adachitapo kanthu popanga zisankho adasanthula, kapena kusamala kuti adziwe ngati lingalirolo lidamveka. Ngati mukuwona kuti izi ndi zonyansa, ndikuvomereza kwathunthu.

Vuto la ndale ndi chitetezo cha missile cha Aegis ndiloti chiwerengero cha interceptors chomwe chingathe kutumizidwa ndi United States chidzakula kwambiri pofika chaka cha 2030 mpaka 2040. Ikhoza kufika pakatikati pa dziko la United States ndikupanga kusokoneza zida zankhondo zomwe zikubwera zomwe zatsatiridwa ndi ma radar aku US ochenjeza.

Izi zimapanga kuwoneka kuti United States ikhoza kuteteza dziko la United States ku mazana ambiri ankhondo zaku China kapena Russia. Ndilo cholepheretsa kuchepetsa zida zamtsogolo chifukwa anthu aku Russia sakufuna kuchepetsa kukula kwa magulu awo ankhondo mpaka pomwe nthawi ina atha kutengeka ndi zida zambiri zaku US.

Chowonadi ndi chakuti chitetezo chidzakhala ndi mphamvu zochepa kapena palibe. Ma radar ochenjeza oyambilira alibe kuthekera kosiyanitsa pakati pa zida zankhondo ndi zonyenga (ma radar awa ndi otsika kwambiri) ndipo ma interceptors a SM-3 sangathe kudziwa kuti ndi zolinga ziti zomwe angakumane nazo ndi mutu wankhondo. Komabe, kuwoneka kuti United States ikuyesetsa kuti ikhale ndi mphamvu yodziteteza ndi mazana a olandirira kukweza zopinga zazikulu komanso zovuta kwambiri pakuyesa mtsogolo pakuchepetsa zida.

United States ili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu kowononga zigawo zazikulu za asitikali aku Russia pakumenya koyamba. Ngakhale kuti kuchita koteroko kungakhaledi kudzipha, okonzekera zankhondo kumbali zonse (Russia ndi America) achita izi mozama muzaka zonse za Cold War. Zikuwonekeratu bwino kuchokera ku zomwe Vladimir Putin adanena kuti sakukana kuti dziko la United States lingayesetse kuwononga Russia pa zida za nyukiliya. Chifukwa chake, ngakhale kuti palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ili ndi mwayi wopulumuka tsoka lomwe liripo ngati zida zigwiritsidwa ntchito mwanjira imeneyi, kuthekera kumatengedwa mozama ndipo kumakhudza kwambiri ndale.

UD - Mu 1995, roketi yofufuza yaku Norway pafupifupi idayambitsa Nkhondo Yachitatu Yapadziko Lonse pomwe aku Russia poyambirira adaganiza kuti ndi kuukira kwa US. Kusanthula kwanu kunawonetsa momwe chochitikacho chidavumbulutsira zolakwika zowonekera pamachenjezo aku Russia ndi machitidwe achitetezo. Kodi pakhala kusintha kulikonse pakuchenjeza koyambirira kwa Russia?

TP - Anthu aku Russia akuchita nawo ntchito yofunika kwambiri kuti apange njira yochenjezera anthu polimbana ndi kuukira modzidzimutsa kwa US. Dongosolo lomwe akumanga likutengera kugwiritsa ntchito ma radar oyambira pansi pamapangidwe osiyanasiyana omwe ali ndi mafani osakasaka komanso umisiri wosiyanasiyana waukadaulo. Ndizodziwikiratu kuti iyi ndi njira yochepetsera mwayi wokhala ndi chenjezo labodza pomwe ndikuyesera kupereka kuperewera kwakukulu kuti zitsimikizire chenjezo lachiwembu.

Posachedwapa, mkati mwa chaka chatha, anthu aku Russia adatha kupeza ma degree a 360 radar polimbana ndi kuukira kwa zida za nyukiliya. Pamene wina ayang'ana zolemba zawo pa machitidwe ochenjeza oyambirira, zikuwonekeratu bwino kuchokera ku mawu awo kuti ichi chakhala cholinga chomwe akhala akuyesera kukwaniritsa kwa zaka zambiri - kuyambira nthawi ya Soviet Union.

Anthu a ku Russia akuwonekanso kuti akugwiritsa ntchito gulu latsopano la ma radar omwe akuwoneka kuti alibe chochita ndi chitetezo cha ndege, monga momwe zalembedwera m'mabuku achi Russia. Ngati wina ayang'ana malo ndi maonekedwe a ma radar omwe ali pamwambawa, zikuwonekeratu kuti cholinga chake ndi kupereka chenjezo la nkhondo ya ballistic missile ku North Atlantic ndi Gulf of Alaska.

Vuto ndilakuti ma radar awa ndi osavuta kupanikizana ndipo sangadalire kuti akhale odalirika kwambiri m'malo ovuta. Zizindikiro zonse masiku ano zikuwonetsa kuti anthu aku Russia alibe ukadaulo wopanga makina ochenjeza oyambira padziko lonse lapansi. Iwo ali ndi mphamvu zochepa zopangira machitidwe omwe amayang'ana madera ang'onoang'ono a dziko lapansi, koma palibe pafupi ndi kufalikira kwa dziko lonse lapansi.

UD - Ndi zowopsa zotani zomwe mphamvu ya nyukiliya yaying'ono yokhala ndi zida zochepa zophonya monga North Korea ikhoza kulepheretsa kulumikizana kwapadziko lonse lapansi ndi nyukiliya yoyendetsedwa ndi electromagnetic pulse nyukiliya, ngakhale kudera lawo? Kodi pali chodzitetezera ku kuukira koteroko?

TP - Kuwonongeka kwakukulu kungathe kuchitidwa ku ma satellite otsika, ena nthawi yomweyo ndipo ena m'tsogolomu. Komabe, kuphulika kumodzi kokha kopanda phindu la nyukiliya sikungawononge mauthenga onse.

Kulingalira kwanga ndekha ndikuti chowopsa chachikulu chochokera ku North Korea ndikuti atha kugwa mkangano wanyukiliya ndi Kumadzulo. Utsogoleri waku North Korea si wamisala. M'malo mwake ndi utsogoleri womwe umakhulupirira kuti uyenera kuwoneka wosadziwikiratu komanso wankhanza kuti South Korea ndi United States zisamayende bwino ngati njira imodzi yopewera nkhondo za South ndi US.

Zotsatira zake, anthu aku North Korea amachita mwadala zinthu zomwe zimapanga mawonekedwe osasamala - zomwe ndi njira yosasamala yokha. Choopsa chachikulu ndichakuti angodutsa pamzere mosazindikira ndikuyambitsa kuyankha kwankhondo kuchokera Kumadzulo kapena Kumwera. Izi zikayamba palibe amene angadziwe kuti zithera kuti kapena momwe zidzathera. Mwinamwake chotsatira chokha chapafupi ndi chakuti North Korea idzawonongedwa ndikusiya kukhalapo ngati mtundu. Komabe, palibe amene anganeneretu kuti zida za nyukiliya sizidzagwiritsidwa ntchito, ndipo zomwe China ikuchita pokhala ndi asilikali a US ndi South Korea mwachindunji kumalire ake zingakhale ndi zotsatira zosayembekezereka.

Chifukwa chake North Korea ndivuto lalikulu kwambiri.

UD - Anthu ambiri, kuphatikiza omwe kale anali mamembala achitetezo monga Henry Kissinger, William Perry, ndi Sam Nunn, akufuna kuti zida zanyukiliya zithetsedwe padziko lapansi. Kodi mukuganiza kuti ichi ndi cholinga chomveka komanso chotheka?

TP - Ndine wothandizira wachangu wa "masomphenya" a dziko lopanda zida za nyukiliya.

Ine pandekha ndikuganiza kuti zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri kukhala ndi dziko lopanda zida za nyukiliya pokhapokha ngati ndale zapadziko lonse zitasinthidwa kotheratu kuchokera momwe zilili lerolino. Komabe, uku sikutsutsa zolinga zamasomphenya zomwe Shultz, Perry, Nunn ndi Kissinger.

Pakalipano, United States ndi Russia zikuchita zinthu zosonyeza kuti palibe mbali yomwe ili yokonzeka kuchitapo kanthu kuti akwaniritse masomphenyawo. Lingaliro langa lomwe, lomwe silili lotchuka m'malo andale amasiku ano, ndikuti United States ndi dziko lomwe limatsogolera pankhaniyi.

Dziko la United States lili mkati momanga zida zazikulu za nyukiliya zomwe zikuwoneka kuti cholinga chake ndi kukhala ndi mphamvu zolimbana ndi kupambana nkhondo zanyukiliya. Mfundo yakuti lingaliro la kumenyana ndi kupambana nkhondo ya nyukiliya likusudzulana kotheratu ndi zenizeni za zotsatira za zida za nyukiliya silinalepheretse United States kupita patsogolo ngati kuti cholinga choterocho n'chotheka.

Chifukwa cha khalidweli, ziyenera kuyembekezera kuti anthu a ku Russia adzachita mantha kuti aphedwe, komanso kuti a ku China nawonso adzakhala pafupi nawo. Ndikukhulupirira kuti zinthuzi ndizowopsa kwambiri ndipo zikuchulukirachulukira.

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Mark Wolverton, 2016-17 Knight Science Journalism Fellow ku MIT, ndi wolemba sayansi, wolemba, komanso wolemba masewero omwe nkhani zake zawonekera mu Wired, Scientific American, Popular Science, Air & Space Smithsonian, ndi American Heritage, pakati pa mabuku ena. Buku lake laposachedwa kwambiri ndi "A Life in Twilight: The Final Years of J. Robert Oppenheimer."

Undark ndi magazini ya digito yopanda phindu, yodziyimira pawokha yomwe imayang'ana mayendedwe asayansi ndi anthu. Imasindikizidwa ndi ndalama zambiri kuchokera ku John S. ndi James L. Knight Foundation, kudzera mu pulogalamu yake ya Knight Science Journalism Fsoci ku Cambridge, Massachusetts.