Berlin Bulletin No. 134, September 25 2017
Wolemba Victor Grossman
Chotsatira chachikulu cha zisankho zaku Germany sikuti Angela Merkel ndi zipani zake ziwiri, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) ndi Bavarian CSU (Christian Social Union), adatha kukhala patsogolo ndi mavoti ambiri, koma kuti adachita chidwi kwambiri. kutayika kwakukulu kuyambira pomwe adakhazikitsidwa.
Chotsatira chachiwiri chachikulu ndichakuti a Social Democrats (SPD) nawonso adasokonekera, komanso ndi zotsatira zoyipa kwambiri kuyambira nkhondo. Ndipo popeza atatuwa adakwatirana m'boma la mgwirizano kwa zaka zinayi zapitazi, kusokoneza kwawo kunawonetsa kuti ovota ambiri sanali nzika zokondwa, zokhuta zomwe nthawi zambiri zimajambulidwa ndi Merkel, koma ali ndi nkhawa. , wosokonezeka ndi wokwiya. Anakwiya kwambiri moti anakana magulu akuluakulu a Bungwe Lolamulira, omwe ankaimira ndi kuteteza mmene zinthu zinalili panopa.
Nkhani yachitatu yofunika kwambiri, yodetsa nkhawa kwambiri, ndi yoti m'modzi mwa asanu ndi atatu mwa ovota, pafupifupi 13 peresenti, adatulutsa mkwiyo wawo m'njira yowopsa kwambiri - ku chipani chachinyamata cha Alternative for Germany (AfD), chomwe atsogoleri ake amagawikana momasuka pakati kumanja. osankhana mitundu komanso osankhana bwino kwambiri. Ndi nduna pafupifupi 80 mu Bundestag yatsopano - kupambana kwawo koyamba mdziko lonse - atolankhani akuyenera kuwapatsa malo ochulukirapo kuposa kale kuti alankhule uthenga wawo wapoizoni (ndipo atolankhani ambiri akhala akuwolowa manja ndi iwo mpaka pano).
Ngoziyi ndiyowopsa kwambiri ku Saxony, dziko lamphamvu kwambiri ku East Germany, lomwe lidalamulidwa kuyambira pomwe gulu la CDU lidagwirizana. AfD idakankhira pamalo oyamba ndi 27%, kumenya CDU mocheperako ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi, kupambana kwawo koyamba kotereku m'boma lililonse (Kumanzere kunapeza 16.1, SPD 10.5% yokha ku Saxony). Chithunzicho chinali chofanana kwambiri m'madera ambiri apansi-pa-zidendene, tsankho la East Germany komanso mu malo omwe kale anali a Social Democratic, dera la Rhineland-Ruhr ku West Germany, kumene ogwira ntchito ambiri komanso osagwira ntchito ankayang'ana adani awo. momwe zidalili - ndikusankha AfD. Amuna kulikonse kuposa akazi.
Nkovuta kunyalanyaza mabuku a mbiri yakale. Mu 1928 chipani cha Nazi chinangopeza 2.6% yokha, mu 1930 izi zidakula kufika pa 18.3%. Pofika m'chaka cha 1932 - pamlingo waukulu chifukwa cha Kupsinjika maganizo - anali atakhala chipani champhamvu kwambiri choposa 30%. Dziko lapansi likudziwa zomwe zinachitika m'chaka chotsatira. Zochitika zimatha kuyenda mwachangu.
Anazi anamanga pa kusakhutira, mkwiyo ndi kudana ndi Ayuda, kutsogolera mkwiyo wa anthu Ayuda m'malo kwenikweni Krupps olakwa kapena Deutsche Bank mamiliyoni ambiri. Mofananamonso, AfD tsopano ikuwongolera mkwiyo wa anthu, nthawi ino osati kawirikawiri kwa Ayuda koma makamaka kwa Asilamu, "Islamists", othawa kwawo. Adakhazikika pa "anthu ena" awa omwe akuti amanyansidwa chifukwa cha "anthu abwino aku Germany" ogwira ntchito, ndipo amadzudzula Angela Merkel ndi anzawo amgwirizano, a Social democrats - ngakhale onse awiri abwerera mwachangu pafunsoli. kupita ku ziletso zochulukirachulukira ndi kuthamangitsidwa. Koma osafulumira mokwanira kwa AfD, omwe amagwiritsa ntchito njira zomwezo monga zaka zapitazo, mpaka pano akuchita bwino kwambiri. Ovota opitilira miliyoni miliyoni a CDU komanso pafupifupi theka la miliyoni la SPD ovota adasintha Lamlungu povotera AfD.
Pali kufanana kwina kulikonse ku Europe, komanso pafupifupi pafupifupi kontinenti iliyonse. Olakwa osankhidwa Ku USA ndi chikhalidwe cha African-America, koma kenako Latinos ndipo tsopano - monga ku Ulaya - Asilamu, "Islamists", othawa kwawo. Kuyesera kuthana ndi machenjerero otere ndi ziwonetsero zotsutsa komanso kudana ndi anthu aku Russia, aku North Korea kapena aku Iran zimangowonjezera vutoli - komanso zoopsa kwambiri, pomwe mayiko omwe ali ndi zida zazikulu zankhondo ndi zida za atomiki akukhudzidwa. Koma kufananako n’koopsa! Ndipo ku Europe Germany, mu zida zonse kupatula zida za atomiki, ndiye dziko lamphamvu kwambiri.
Kodi panalibenso njira zina zabwinoko kuposa AfD kwa otsutsa "kukhalabe maphunziro"? A Free Democrats, gulu laulemu lokhala ndi maubwenzi pafupifupi mabizinesi akuluakulu, adatha kubwereranso mwamphamvu pakugwa kowopsa, ndi 10.7 peresenti yokhutiritsa, koma osati chifukwa cha mawu awo opanda tanthauzo komanso mtsogoleri wanzeru, wopanda mfundo, koma chifukwa sanakhale nawo mbali ya bungwe lolamulira.
Ngakhalenso a Greens ndi DIE LINKE (Kumanzere). Mosiyana ndi zipani ziwiri zazikuluzikulu, onse awiri adakweza mavoti awo kuposa a 2013 - koma ndi 0.5% yokha ya Greens ndi 0.6 % ya Kumanzere, kuposa kutayika, koma zonse zokhumudwitsa kwambiri. A Greens, ndi chikhalidwe chawo chochulukirachulukira, aluntha komanso ukatswiri, sanapume kwambiri ndi Kukhazikitsidwa.
Kumanzere, ngakhale kusamalidwa koyipa kwapawayilesi, kumayenera kukhala ndi mwayi waukulu. Idatsutsana ndi mgwirizano wadziko womwe sunasangalale ndipo idalimbana pazovuta zambiri: kuchotsedwa kwa asitikali aku Germany ku mikangano, opanda zida kupita kumalo omenyera nkhondo (kapena kulikonse), malipiro ocheperako, penshoni zam'mbuyomu komanso zaumunthu, misonkho yeniyeni ya mamiliyoni ndi mabiliyoni omwe amalanda. Germany ndi dziko.
Idamenya ndewu zabwino ndipo, potero, idakankhira magulu ena kuti atukuke, chifukwa choopa kupindula Kumanzere. Koma idalumikizananso ndi maboma amgwirizano m'maboma awiri a East Germany ndi Berlin (ngakhale mutu umodzi wawo, ku Thuringia). Zinayesetsa zolimba ngati zinakanika kujowina ena awiri. M'zochitika zonsezi, idakwaniritsa zofuna zake, kupeŵa kugwedeza bwato, ngakhale mopambanitsa, chifukwa izi zingalepheretse chiyembekezo cha ulemu ndi kuchoka pakona "yosamvera" yomwe nthawi zambiri imapatsidwa. Sizinapezekenso njira yotalikirana ndi ndewu zapakamwa ndikupita mumsewu, mokweza komanso mwaukali kuchirikiza omenyera nkhondo ndi anthu omwe akuwopseza kuti achotsedwa ntchito, kapena kuthamangitsidwa ndi olemera olemera, mwa kuyankhula kwina, kuchita nawo zovuta zenizeni pazovuta zonse zomwe zidalipo, ngakhale kusweka. amalamulira mobwerezabwereza, osati ndi mawu osintha zinthu zakuthengo kapena mazenera osweka ndi zinyalala zopsereza koma ndi kukana kotchuka kokulirakulira pamene akupereka malingaliro odalirika amtsogolo, pafupi ndi kutali. Kumene izi zinali kusowa, makamaka kum'maŵa kwa Germany, anthu okwiya kapena odandaula adaziwonanso, monga gawo la Kukhazikitsidwa ndi Kuteteza chikhalidwe. Nthawi zina, m'malo am'deralo, ngakhale maboma, magolovesiwa amakhala bwino kwambiri. Pafupifupi kusowa kwathunthu kwa anthu ogwira ntchito kunatengapo gawo. Pulogalamu yotereyi ingawoneke ngati yankho lokhalo lokhalo lokhalo la anthu omwe akuwopseza osankhana mitundu komanso a fascists. Chifukwa chake, idatsutsa kudana ndi anthu osamukira kumayiko ena ngakhale kuti izi zidawononga ovota omwe adachita ziwonetsero kamodzi; 400,000 adachoka kumanzere kupita ku AfD.
Chitonthozo chimodzi; ku Berlin, komwe kuli m'boma la mgwirizano wapakati, Kumanzere adachita bwino, makamaka ku East Berlin, ndikusankhanso anthu anayi mwachindunji ndikubwera pafupi kuposa kale lonse m'maboma ena awiri, pamene magulu ankhondo Kumanzere ku West Berlin adapeza zambiri kuposa zakale. Zolinga za East Berlin.
Padziko lonse, zinthu zazikuluzikulu zitha kuchitika posachedwa. Popeza SPD ikukana kukonzanso mgwirizano wake wosasangalala ndi chipani cha Merkel, adzakakamizika, kuti apeze mipando yambiri ku Bundestag, kuti agwirizane ndi mabizinesi akuluakulu a FDP ndi omwe adang'ambika, a Greens. Onse awiri sakondana ndi mtima wonse, pomwe a Greens audzu ambiri amatsutsa mgwirizano ndi Merkel kapena FDP yolondola. Kodi atatuwo angagwirizane ndi kupanga chotchedwa “mgwirizano wa Jamaica”- kutengera mitundu ya mbendera ya dzikolo, yakuda (CDU-CSU), yachikasu (FDP) ndi Yobiriwira? Ngati sichoncho, ndiye chiyani? Popeza palibe amene angagwirizane ndi AfD yakutali-kumanja - osati, mulimonse - palibe yankho lomwe likuwonekera, kapena mwinamwake kotheka.
Funso lalikulu, koposa zonse, ndi lomveka bwino; kodi zingatheke kukankhira m'mbuyo zoopsa za phwando lodzaza ndi zochitika zakale zowopsya komanso zodzaza ndi anthu omwe amasirira, omwe nthawi zonse amafuna kubadwanso, ndipo ali okonzeka kugwiritsa ntchito njira iliyonse kuti akwaniritse maloto awo oipa. Ndipo kodi, monga mbali ya kugonja kwa ngozi imeneyi, ngozi zimene zikubwera ku mtendere wa dziko lapansi zingachotsedwe?
