Wolemba Kent D. Shifferd, Epulo 9, 2018.
Pali mwayi woti US idzaukira Iran kapena North Korea kapena onse mu Meyi kapena June. Ulamuliro wakhala ukukulitsa mawu ake ankhondo. Kusankhidwa kwa amphawi oopsa John Bolton ndi Mike Pompeo kukhala National Security Advisor ndi Secretary of State, zikuwonetsa kulowera kunkhondo. Bolton adanena kale kuti akufuna kumenyedwa koyambirira motsutsana ndi North Korea. Tikaphatikizana ndi malingaliro a Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti Mike Pence, wina wankhanza wotsutsa Asilamu, komanso mawu odziwika bwino a Purezidenti Trump komanso kusakhazikika kwakukulu, tili pachiwopsezo.
Ngakhale kuti sitingathe kuneneratu zam’tsogolo, n’kwanzeru nthawi zonse kuyang’ana zam’tsogolo mopanda chisoni, n’kufunsa kuti: “Ngati tichita izi, zotsatira zake zingakhale zotani? Ndilo mfundo yoyesedwa yokonzekera mwadzidzidzi.
Pakachitika nkhondo imodzi kapena zonse ziwirizi, ndi zochitika ziti zomwe zikungochitika zokha? Kodi dziko lonse lapansi lidzatani? Kodi zotsatira za chilengedwe zidzakhala zotani, zomwe zidzakhudze chuma cha US ndi padziko lonse lapansi? Kodi mabizinesi apadziko lonse lapansi achita chiyani? Dziwani kuti kumenyedwa konseku kungakhale kuphwanya malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi komanso Charter ya UN yomwe imaletsa nkhanza. Izi, komabe, sizingalepheretse gulu lankhondo. Bolton amangonyoza UN ndipo amakhulupirira kuti US idzatengedwa ngati omasula, kulakwitsa komwe adapanga polimbikitsa nkhondo ya Iraq.
Kuukira ku North Korea
Kuukira North Korea kungakhale tsoka lalikulu ngati lingathe kuwononga kwambiri ogwirizana athu, South Korea ndi Japan, komanso mwina ku US komweko.
Ngakhale pali zokambirana za msonkhano pakati pa Bambo Trump ndi Kim Jong Un, ndipo Un adagwiritsa ntchito mawu akuti "denuclearization", sizingachitike. Mulimonse mmene zingakhalire, n'zosatheka kufotokoza zotsatira za zokambirana za amuna aŵiri okangana kwambiri. Ngakhale zitakhala bwino kwambiri, mtengo womwe Kim angafune kuti asiye zida zake zanyukiliya ukhoza kukhala wochuluka kuposa momwe US angalolere kulipira. Kukambitsirana kolephera kungapereke mwayi woukira.
Chowiringula:
US ikunena kuti North Korea ili ndi pulogalamu ya zida za nyukiliya "yopanda pake" ndipo motero ikuwopseza mtendere wapadziko lonse. Zomwe zimapangitsa zida za nyukiliya za US, France, Great Britain, Israel, Pakistan ndi India kukhala zovomerezeka, ndipo North Korea siziri choncho, ndizodabwitsa. A US akuti North Korea ikhoza kuwagwiritsa ntchito, koma US ndi dziko lokhalo lomwe lakhala likugwiritsa ntchito ndipo lawopseza kuti liwagwiritsa ntchito nthawi zambiri m'mbuyomu. Ndipotu palibe zida za nyukiliya zomwe zili zovomerezeka. United Nations idaletsa zida zonse za nyukiliya chaka chatha, koma US, France ndi Great Britain adakana mwachipongwe zomwe mayiko a 122 omwe amathandizira chiletsochi.
Kim Jong Un sadzasiya zida zake za nyukiliya pokhapokha wina aliyense atatero. Akudziwa kuti ndizomwe zimalepheretsa zomwe zidachitika kwa Saddam Hussein ndi Muammar Gaddafi pomwe adasiya zawo. Angachite bwino kumenya nkhondo kusiyana n’kungopachikidwa kapena kuwomberedwa m’dzenje.
Zochitika Zankhondo ndi Zotsatira: Nkhondoyo idzayamba ndi kuwukira kwakukulu kwa mpweya kuti kunyoze chitetezo cha kumpoto. Akatswiri ambiri amati izi zingatenge mlungu umodzi kapena kuposerapo. Pakadali pano kumpoto, komwe kuli ndi zida zankhondo zazitali zazitali m'malo olimba kumalire ndi South Korea komanso kutali kwambiri ndi Seoul, kungawononge mzindawu ndikupangitsa kuti anthu pafupifupi 500,000 afa. Kumpoto, komwe kuli ndi gulu lalikulu lankhondo lamakono, lophunzitsidwa bwino lingathenso kuukira Kumwera, kugonjetsa asilikali ochepa chabe a US kumeneko. Panthawi imodzimodziyo kumpoto kukanatha kuwopseza zodalirika ku rocket Japan ndi katundu wa US ku Pacific, njira yomwe ikuwonetseratu. Kuukira koteroko kungakhale nyukiliya.
Chitetezo cha kumpoto chikawonongedwa, US idzaukira zida zawo za nyukiliya. Izi zili m'malo olimba ndipo zingafune mabomba a nyukiliya. Komanso, aku North Korea atha kukwaniritsa lonjezo lawo loti adzawukire West Coast ya US ndi zida zanyukiliya pa ICBM. Chinthu chomwe US adachitcha kuti chifukwa cha nkhondo, kuopsa kwa nkhondo ya nyukiliya, chikadapangidwa ndi zochita za US.
Ngati cholinga chenicheni cha US ndikusintha maboma, iyenera kuwukira ndi gulu lalikulu lankhondo. Izi zidayesedwapo kale ndipo zidalephera kwambiri. North Korea ndi dziko lamapiri kumene gawo silitengedwa mosavuta koma limatetezedwa mosavuta. Kawirikawiri, kuukira koteroko kungapangitse chiwonongeko chonse cha peninsula monga momwe chinachitira nthawi yapitayi. Mwachiwonekere a US angatenge nawo mbali mu nkhondo yayitali m'dziko lokhala ndi mpweya. Ngati US pomaliza idaganiza kuti ilibe m'mimba chifukwa cha izi, Kumpoto kungatengere chilumba chonsecho - mgwirizano waku Korea pansi pa Kim Jong Un.
Zaposachedwa ku US Kuthekera kwakukulu kwa mantha ndi kutuluka kwa anthu ambiri kuchokera kumizinda ya Pacific Northwest chifukwa cha mantha a zida za nyukiliya. Izi zitha kukhala ndi zotulukapo zazikulu zachuma zomwe ziyenera kufufuzidwa posachedwa.
Nthawi yomweyo kutchuka kwa Purezidenti kukakwera mwachangu kwakanthawi, mpaka nkhondo yayitali komanso yosagonjetseka itatha. Potsirizira pake gulu lankhondo lidzavoteredwa kuchoka paudindo, kusiya boma lolowa m'malo kuti liyeretse chisokonezocho, mwinamwake mwa kukonza zida zofanana ndi zomwe zilipo tsopano.
Zotsatira za Diplomatic Mayiko ambiri padziko lapansi angatsutse zankhanza ngati kuphwanya mgwirizano wankhondo waku Korea ndi Charter ya UN. Zingatanthauzedi kutha kwa United Nations monga mphamvu yogwira mtima ya mtendere, kutibwezeranso ku chipwirikiti chapadziko lonse cha Nkhondo Yoyamba isanayambe. Ngati nkhondoyo idapita ku nyukiliya, monga momwe zikuyembekezeredwa, kutsutsidwa kwa US kudzakhala kwapadziko lonse lapansi ndipo tidzakhala otalikirana padziko lapansi, kutaya chikhulupiriro chonse monga osunga mapangano, ndi chikoka chonse - dziko lonyozedwa padziko lonse lapansi, lankhanza padziko lonse lapansi. NATO idzaphwanyidwa.
Kodi China ikanathandizanso Kumpoto monga idachitira pankhondo yaku Korea? Awonetsa momveka bwino kuti sakufuna kuwona Korea ikugwirizana motsogozedwa ndi US kapena pansi pa North. Amafuna kuti zinthu zikhale bwanji. Anthu aku Russia angatengerepo mwayi pazosokoneza zaku America mwanjira ina zowononga zofuna za US ndi mtendere wapadziko lonse lapansi, mwina kuwukira mayiko a Baltic ndikuyambitsa nkhondo yaku US-Russian, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti Nkhondo Yachitatu Yapadziko Lonse. Mayiko ena angalimbikitsidwe chimodzimodzi.
Zotsatira Zachuma ndi Zachilengedwe: Popeza kuti South Korea, Japan, ndi mizinda ya West Coast ya US ikuphatikizidwa kwambiri ndi chuma cha padziko lonse, zotsatira za malonda a padziko lonse zingakhale zovuta kwambiri, zomwe zidzagwetse dziko lonse mu Kupsinjika maganizo. Ndipo ngati nkhondo ikupita ku nyukiliya, kubetcherana konse kwachuma chapadziko lonse kwatha. Mphamvu za zida za nyukiliya zokwana khumi ndi ziwiri zomwe zaphulitsa ndikuyatsa moto m'mizinda ndi nkhalango zozungulira zitha kusintha kwakanthawi kutentha kwa dziko lapansi pomwe nyengo yozizira ya nyukiliya imayamba. Zitsanzo za izi zimaneneratu kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa mbewu ndi ng'ombe ndi kuchepa kwa chakudya zomwe zimabweretsa kukwera. mitengo ya tirigu yomwe ingapangitse mayiko ambiri osauka kukhala chipwirikiti chosintha zinthu monga zidachitika pamene chilala chinayambitsa zochitika zomwezo zomwe zinathandizira kuchepetsa Arab Spring. Zoonadi, thanzi ndi chilengedwe cha nkhondo ya nyukiliya yowonjezereka ingakhale yowononga.
Kuukira Iran
Chowiringula: US ndi gawo la mgwirizano wamayiko osiyanasiyana kuphatikiza Russia, UK, France, Germany, ndi China, pomwe Iran idavomera kuthetsa pulogalamu yake ya zida za nyukiliya. Purezidenti Trump adati "adzawonetsa" Iran mu Meyi, akutsutsa kuti sakusunga mgwirizano. Palibe m'magulu ena omwe amakhulupirira kuti ndi choncho.
Zochitika Zankhondo: Kuwukira kungayambike ndi kuwukira kwa ndege pogwiritsa ntchito mizinga ya Cruise ndi mabomba omenyera nkhondo omwe cholinga chake ndi kunyozetsa chitetezo cha ndege cha Iran. Izi zikachitika, aphulitsa zida zanyukiliya za Iran.
Zotsatira Zankhondo: Ndizotheka kwambiri kuti chitetezo cha mpweya chiwonongeke mokwanira kuti gawo lachiwiri lichitike. Komabe, zida zambiri za nyukiliya ku Iran zili mobisa ndipo sizingawonongeke ndi bomba wamba. Anthu ambiri adzafa. Sizingatheke, ngakhale kuti sizingatheke, kuti US idzagwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya monga momwe adawopseza kale kuti achite mu ndondomeko yamakono ya chitetezo cha US, koma ndizotheka ndipo akhoza kumasula ma radiation a atomiki mumlengalenga ndikupangitsa kuti anthu afe mwamsanga kuchokera ku radiation ndi chiwerengero chosadziwika cha khansa pansi pamzerewu.
Kuukira kungayambitse nkhondo yokulirapo ku Middle East. Saudi Arabia ikuwona Iran ngati mdani wake wamkulu m'derali ndipo idzagwiritsa ntchito mwayi uliwonse kuti ichepetse mphamvu ndi chikoka cha Iran. Hezbollah, gulu la zigawenga lomwe likugwirizana ndi Iran ndipo likulu lake ku Lebanon, likhoza kuwukira Israeli ngati chosokoneza ngati Israeli alowa nawo kuphulitsa ku US. Israel idaphulitsa bomba ku Iraq nyukiliya m'mbuyomu. Turkey idaukira kale asitikali aku Kurd ku Syria ndipo atha kukulitsa mikanganoyo. Pakadali pano, Turkey ndi Greece zikuchita malonda akuchulukirachulukira, zonena zankhondo zawozawo. A US sangathe kukopa Turkey. Nkhondo pakati pa awiriwa idzaphwanya NATO.
Zokhudza Ndale ku Iran Kuwukira kudzathetsa kusagwirizana ku Iran ndikulimbitsa mgwirizano kwambiri pamene anthu onyadawa akugwirizana poteteza dziko lawo ndi chitukuko chawo chakale. Palibe mwayi kuti US ingawoneke ngati omasula. Iran ikasiya kudalira mapangano oletsa malire ndipo iyambiranso pulogalamu yake ya zida za nyukiliya ndikupanga zotsatira zomwe pangano limapewa.
Njira Yotheka I Pambuyo pophulitsa bomba, a US adzanena kuti apambana ndikuthetsa nkhondoyo.
Njira Yotheka II A US azindikira kuti sangathe kukwaniritsa cholinga chake popanda kuwongolera boma la Iran ndipo ayesa kusintha boma. Chifukwa chake adzakwera kuwukira komwe kumatsagana ndi kuphulitsa mabomba koopsa monga mu Nkhondo yaku Iraq. Iran ili ndi gulu lankhondo lamakono ndipo ngakhale silingapambane, kuligonjetsa kungakhale kokwera mtengo kwambiri. Anthu masauzande ambiri adzatayika limodzi ndi kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa zomangamanga ndi katundu. Zoyesa zakale zosintha maulamuliro ku Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya ndi Somalia zalephera mochititsa chidwi, kusiya chipwirikiti kapena maboma odana ndi US.
Zotsatira Padziko Lachisilamu: Nkhondo idzabweretsa ma jihadis onse ku Iran kuti amenyane ndi US, ndipo idzapanga ena ambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Zigawenga zolimbana ndi US ndi Mayiko Akumadzulo ndi nzika zitha kukulirakulira. Anthu aku America sangakhale otetezeka, makamaka kupita kunja.
Zotsatira za Diplomatic: US idzatsutsidwa ndi pafupifupi mayiko onse padziko lapansi ndipo idzakhala yokhayokha. Israel yokha ndi Saudi Arabia adzayimilira ndi US Zidzaonekeratu kwa North Korea ndi dziko lonse lapansi kuti sangakhulupirire mgwirizano uliwonse ndi US US idzataya kukhulupilika kotsalira ndi zabwino zomwe akadali nazo. Nkhondo yotereyi ingalimbikitse manja a China ndi Russia, mwinanso kuwalimbikitsa kuchitapo kanthu pamene US ili pankhondo ina ku Middle East, mwachitsanzo, kulanda dziko la Russia ku Ukraine kapena kulandidwa kwa Israeli. West Bank. Zingalimbikitsenso mayiko ena kuti agwiritse ntchito ziwawa zosaloledwa kuti akwaniritse zolinga zawo, makamaka Turkey. Bungwe la UN Security Council silingakhale ndi mphamvu zotsutsa kuwukira chifukwa cha veto ya US. Komabe General Assembly ikhoza kuchitapo kanthu poyitsutsa malinga ndi zomwe zili mu Charter zomwe zimapatsa mphamvu kuchitapo kanthu pomwe akuganiza kuti Security Council yalephera kuteteza mtendere. A US anganyalanyaze izi, ndipo chifukwa chodana ndi Bolton ku bungwe atha kugwiritsa ntchito ngati chowiringula chochoka ku UN.
Zokhudza Zachuma: Kuukira kulikonse kudzawonjezera ngongole ya dziko. Opanga zida apindula ndi kukhala amphamvu kwambiri ngati olimbikitsa anthu ku DC Ndizovuta kunena zomwe mabizinesi akuluakulu angachite, popeza athawa m'manja mwa mayiko. Olamulira olamulira amatha kubisala mpaka zitatha ndikuwona momwe angapangire ndalama pazochitikazo. Padzakhala kusokoneza malonda padziko lonse.
Zotsatira Zachilengedwe: Asitikali aku US ndi omwe ali kale kwambiri omwe si a Boma otulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse lapansi, okulirapo kuposa mayiko ambiri. Kutumiza magulu oyendetsa ntchito ndi kuphulika kwa ndege kudzawonjezera mpweya wochuluka, kuwonongeka kwa nyengo, komanso kutenthedwa kwa zomangamanga kudzayatsidwa ndi mabomba. Kuonjezera apo, ndege zomwe zimagwira ntchito kwambiri zimafuna malo osambira a mankhwala oopsa kwambiri omwe amapita kumalo ozungulira. Ngati mizinda iwukiridwa, katundu wawo wa mankhwala osungidwa adzatulutsidwanso pamlingo wina.
Zandale ndi Zikhalidwe Panyumba Poyamba kutchuka kwa Purezidenti kudzakwera. Otsutsa adzazunzidwa. Ufulu wa atolankhani udzakhala ndi malire. Choyipa chachikulu - ngati pachitika ziwonetsero zazikulu, Purezidenti aganiza zoyambitsa malamulo ankhondo. Zowukira Asilamu zidzachuluka kwambiri. Ufulu wa Alt udzalimbikitsidwa ndipo US idzayandikira ku fascism. Polarization idzawonjezeka.
Zotsatira Zanthawi Yaitali: Zokayikitsa kuti kusintha kwaulamuliro kukuyenda bwino, kulanda dziko la Iran kwanthawi yayitali ndi asitikali aku US monga ku Europe pambuyo pa WWII komanso ku Afghanistan pakalipano, ndi zotsatirapo zonse zazachuma, uchigawenga, komanso kupititsa patsogolo nkhondo ku America.
Kutsiliza
Imodzi mwa nkhondozi ingakhale tsoka kwa US ndi dziko lapansi, ngakhale ulendo waku Korea ukanakhala woipa kwambiri pa ziwirizi. Inde, nkhondo ndi zochitika zomwe ndajambulazi zikhoza kukhala zoopsa za nkhalamba. Nkhani yankhondo ikhoza kukhala yongoyerekeza komanso nkhani zazikulu zomwe takhala tikuzolowera kuchokera ku Administration. Choyipa kwambiri, chingakhale chiphunzitso chodabwitsa, chosokoneza chopitilira kubisa malamulo azachuma omwe amachotsa anthu amgulu lapakati, kuvulaza alimi, kuwononga ufulu wa anthu komanso kuwononga chitetezo cha anthu komanso kuteteza chilengedwe. Kapena itha kukhala yopangidwa mwachipongwe kuti ikhudze zisankho zapakati pa nthawi, kapena zonsezi pamwambapa.
Kent Shifferd ndi wolemba Kuchokera pa Nkhondo kupita ku Mtendere: Chotsogolera kwa Zaka Zaka Zitapitazo ndi wolemba wothandizira A Global Security System. Iye ali ndi doctorate mu European History ndipo anaphunzitsa maphunziro apamwamba kwa zaka zambiri.
