ndi Catherine Killough, November 29, 2017, Log Log.
Purezidenti Trump wakhala akuyimira molakwika mbiri ya zokambirana pakati pa North Korea ndi United States. M'mawu ake pamaso pa Nyumba Yamalamulo yaku South Korea, adapeza mfundo imodzi kuchokera ku mbiri yovuta yaukadaulo zomwe adapeza movutikira: "Ulamuliro waku North Korea watsata mapulogalamu ake a zida za nyukiliya ndi zophonya ponyalanyaza chitsimikizo chilichonse, mgwirizano ndi kudzipereka komwe wapanga. ku United States ndi ogwirizana nawo.”
Si zachilendo kapena zachilendo kudzudzula North Korea chifukwa cha mbiri yake yosagwirizana, koma sizinakhalepo zoopsa kwambiri. M'ma tweets angapo mwezi watha, a Trump sanangonyozetsa zoyeserera zakale za "kupusitsa olankhulana aku US," komanso adamaliza momveka bwino, "Pepani, chinthu chimodzi chokha chitha kugwira ntchito!"
Ngati sichowonadi, ndiye kuti "chinthu chimodzi" chikuwoneka ngati kumenyedwa kwankhondo, lingaliro lalikulu lomwe lakhala likubwerezanso kukhazikitsidwa kwa mfundo zakunja zaku Washington. Monga Evan Osnos adanena m'mabuku ake nkhani pakuti latsopano Yorker, "Kodi Gulu Landale Likuyenda Pankhondo ndi North Korea?" Lingaliro la nkhondo yodzitetezera lafala kwambiri moti ngakhale mlembi wakale wa nduna ya boma ya Democratic anaulula kuti, “akanakhala kuti ali m’boma lero akanathandizira kuukira North Korea, kuti alepheretse kuyambitsa sitiraka ku America.”
Kwa iwo omwe akufuna kuletsa nkhondo yomwe ingawononge mamiliyoni ambiri ku Peninsula ya Korea, palibe njira zankhondo. Koma kwa ma Democrat ambiri, kulimbikitsa zokambirana kumakhala pachiwopsezo chowonetsa kufooka. Mosadabwitsa, njira zachuma zomwe zimadutsa mzere pakati pa kulanga komanso osati-nkhondo kwenikweni zimalandila chithandizo chachikulu kwambiri chamagulu awiri.
Potengera chikhalidwe cha ndalechi, kukonza mbiri yosokonekera pa zokambirana za US-North Korea ndikofunikira-makamaka popeza chizolowezi chowonera zokambirana ngati kusangalatsa, kapena kuchita ngati kuvomereza, chikukulirakulira. Zambiri mwa izi zimachokera ku momwe otsutsa adapangira mgwirizano woyamba wotsogoleredwa ndi US ndi North Korea ndipo pamapeto pake unagwa.
Mgwirizano womwe Udasokoneza Nukes aku North Korea
Mu 1994, United States ndi North Korea zinali pafupi ndi nkhondo. Aka kanali koyamba kuti boma losadziwika bwino kumpoto kwa 38th kufanana anawopseza kupita nyukiliya. Atathamangitsa oyendera mayiko onse m'dzikolo, North Korea idakonzekera kuchotsa mabomba asanu ndi limodzi a plutonium yamtengo wapatali kuchokera muzitsulo zamafuta muzochita zake zofufuzira ku Yongbyon.
Panthawiyo, Purezidenti Bill Clinton yemwe anali ndi nkhope yatsopano adaganiza zopita kunkhondo, kuphatikiza mapulani ochita maopaleshoni a zida zanyukiliya ku North Korea. Akuluakulu ake ambiri adakayikira kuti atha kunyengerera anthu aku North Korea kupanga zida zanyukiliya. Monga Mlembi Wothandizira wa Chitetezo ku International Security Ashton Carter anati, “Tinalibe chidaliro mwanjira iriyonse kuti tingathe kuwathetsa kuti aleke kuchita zimenezo.”
Komabe, monga Mlembi wakale wa Chitetezo William Perry adakumbukira, kuopsa koyambitsa nkhondo yachiwiri ya ku Korea kunakakamiza akuluakulu a boma kuti azitsatira njira zaukazembe. Msonkhano pakati pa Purezidenti wakale Jimmy Carter ndi mtsogoleri waku North Korea a Kim Il Sung adayambitsa zokambirana zazikulu zomwe zidafika pachimake ndi mgwirizano wa US-North Korea pa Okutobala 21, 1994.
Pamgwirizanowu wodziwika bwino, North Korea idavomera kuyimitsa ndikuchotsa zida zake zoyendetsedwa ndi graphite posinthana ndi mafuta ndi ma reactors awiri osagwirizana ndi kuchuluka kwa madzi. Ma reactors awa amatha kupanga mphamvu, koma sakanatha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kupanga zida zanyukiliya.
Kwa zaka pafupifupi khumi, United States yakhala ikulumikizana mwachindunji, yotseguka ndi boma lopanda chitetezo komanso lopanda chitetezo. Kugwirizana kumeneku kunapangitsa kuti adani awiri achite mgwirizano ndi zotsatira zazikulu, zakuthupi: North Korea inasiya kupanga plutonium kwa zaka zisanu ndi zitatu. Monga kazembe wakale wa US ku South Korea a Thomas Hubbard anamaliza, Agreed Framework “inakhala yopanda ungwiro… Koma idalepheretsa North Korea kupanga zida za nyukiliya zokwana 100 pofika pano.”
Tsoka ilo, zopambanazi zaphimbidwa ndi kugwa kwa Agreed Framework, pomwe "kugwa" kumafanana ndi "kulephera." Koma kunena kuti mgwirizanowu udalephera kumatanthawuza bwino lomwe kuti kupambana kungaphatikizepo bwanji ndi dziko lonyamula katundu wambiri monga North Korea. Kusamveka bwino pawailesi yakanema, kuphatikizira zosiya zolakwika kumbali yaku US ya mgwirizano, ndi chifukwa china. Koma osamala za hawkish, omwe akhala akugwiritsa ntchito mgwirizanowu kwanthawi yayitali ngati chenjezo lachisangalalo chaufulu, ali ndi vuto lalikulu.
Onse a United States ndi North Korea adatenga nawo gawo pakugwa kwa Agreed Framework, koma zonena kuti North Korea idabera zikubisa mfundoyi. Atsogoleri a Clinton atangothetsa mgwirizanowu, a Republican adagonjetsa Congress, zomwe zinachititsa "kusowa kwa ndale," Malinga ndi wokambirana wamkulu Robert Gallucci, ndipo zidapangitsa kuti kuchedwetsa kuperekedwe kwa maudindo aku US.
Kutsutsa kwa DRM kudayambanso mu 1998 pakati pa milandu yoti North idabisala nyukiliya ku Kumchang-ri. M'malo mochita chilango, akuluakulu a Clinton adayankhulana ndi anthu aku North Korea ndipo, pofuna kuthetsa mgwirizanowu, adakambirana za mgwirizano watsopano womwe unalola kuti United States iwonetsere nthawi zonse malo omwe akuwakayikira, pomwe adalephera kupeza umboni uliwonse. ntchito zanyukiliya.
Njira yaukazembeyi idapitilirabe ngakhale pulogalamu yakutsogolo ya zida zankhondo yaku North Korea idatulutsa ma alarm atsopano. Kutsatira kukhazikitsidwa kwa North Korea kwa mzinga wautali wautali ku Japan mu 1998, oyang'anira Clinton adapatsa gulu laling'ono la akatswiri amkati ndi kunja kwa boma ndi North Korea Policy Review yomwe ingaphatikizepo zolinga zomwe zafotokozedwa mu Agreed Framework.
Mlembi wakale wa chitetezo William Perry anagwirizana ndi maboma a North Korea, South Korea, China, ndi Japan mu zomwe zinadziwika kuti Perry Process. Zokambirana zingapo zidafika pachimake mu 1999 ndi lipoti lomwe lidafotokoza malingaliro a United States kuti akwaniritse kuyimitsidwa kotsimikizika ndikuthetsa ntchito za zida zanyukiliya zaku North komanso zakutali. Momwemonso, gulu lowunika ndondomeko lidapeza kuti United States iyenera kuchitapo kanthu kuti ithetsere nkhawa za chitetezo cha kumpoto ndikukhazikitsa ubale wabwinobwino.
North Korea idayankha bwino posangovomera kuyimitsa kuyesa kwake kwa mizinga nthawi yonse yokambirana, komanso kutumiza mlangizi wake wamkulu wankhondo ku Washington kuti akambirane tsatanetsatane wa pempho la Perry ndi Purezidenti Clinton. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright adabweza ulendowo popita ku Pyongyang kukakumana ndi Kim Jong Il kumapeto kwa mwezi womwewo.
Komabe, kulimbikitsa zomwe Mlangizi Wapadera wakale wa Purezidenti Wendy Sherman wotchedwa lingaliro "loyandikira mochititsa chidwi" linayimitsidwa mwezi wotsatira ndi chisankho cha George W. Bush. Mlembi wa boma, a Colin Powell, adanena kuti mfundo zaku North Korea zipitilira pomwe Clinton adasiyira, koma Bush, yemwe adaganiza zothetsa zokambirana zonse ndi North Korea kwa zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi, adamugonjetsa.
Oyang'anira a Bush adasiya njira yaukazembe yomwe oyang'anira Clinton adayesetsa kuti asamalire. Bush adawonjezera North Korea ku mayiko atatu a "axis of evil". Dick Cheney anakana zokambirana za kusintha kwa boma, ponena kuti, "Sitikukambirana ndi zoipa. Timachigonjetsa.” Kenako-Undersecretary of State for Arms Control a John Bolton adagwiritsa ntchito malipoti anzeru okhudza pulogalamu yachinsinsi yolemeretsa uranium kuti aphe mgwirizano womwe sanakonde. M’mawu akeake, “Iyi inali nyundo yomwe ndinali kuyang’ana kuti ndiphwanye Chigwirizano Chogwirizana.”
Pamapeto pake, oyang'anira a Bush adanena kuti mkulu wina waku North Korea adatsimikizira kukhalapo kwa pulogalamu yomwe akuwaganizira kuti akuwonjezera uranium. North Korea idakana kuvomera, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti azineneza mwatsatanetsatane kuti mbali iliyonse idaphwanya mgwirizano. M'malo moyesetsa kuthana ndi kusakhulupirirana komwe kukukulirakulira, United States idasiya mgwirizano mu 2002.
The Agreed Framework Redux
Bush anakana kuchita zinthu ndi dziko la North Korea ndipo m’chaka cha 2003, boma lake linayamba kuvuta. North Korea mwamsanga inayambiranso pulogalamu yake ya plutonium ndipo inalengeza kuti ili ndi zida za nyukiliya. Potsimikiza za kufunikira koyambiranso zokambirana, United States idalumikizana ndi China, Russia, Japan, ndi South Korea muzokambirana za Six Party.
Kukambitsirana kangapo kudapangitsa kuti pakhale kupambana zaka ziwiri pambuyo pake ndi 2005 Joint Statement, yomwe idalonjeza Kumpoto kuti asiye "zida zonse za nyukiliya ndi mapulogalamu a nyukiliya omwe alipo." Koma maphwando asanu ndi limodzi atangolengeza mgwirizanowu, Boma la US Treasury lidasokoneza chuma cha North Korea ku banki ya Macau, Banco Delta Asia.
Kwa utsogoleri waku North Korea, kutsekereza mwayi wawo wopeza $ 25 miliyoni mu likulu kunali mlandu waukulu ndipo adati United States sinali wotsimikiza kupanga mgwirizano. Ngakhale omwe amagwira ntchito m'boma, monga kazembe wamkulu wa Kazembe Christopher Hill, adawona izi ngati kuyesa "kusokoneza zokambiranazo."
Kaya zolinga za Treasury ya ku United States zinali zotani, kuyimitsidwaku kudapangitsa kuti pakhale zaka zambiri zomwe adapeza movutikira kuti ayambitsenso kukhulupirirana. North Korea idabwezera mu 2006 osati kuyesa mivi isanu ndi itatu yokha, komanso kuphulitsa chida chake choyamba cha nyukiliya.
United States inangotsala pang'ono kupulumutsa zokambiranazo pokweza kuzizira ndikuchotsa North Korea kuchokera ku mndandanda wa State Sponsors of Terrorism mu 2007. Pobwezera, North Korea idalandiranso oyendera zida za nyukiliya ndikuletsa makina ake a Yongbyon, akuphulika nsanja yoziziritsa muzochitika zochititsa chidwi pawailesi yakanema. Koma kuonongeka kokwanira kudachitika kuti pomwe mikangano yatsopano idayamba pazatsimikizidwe, Six Party Talks idafika pachimake ndipo idalephera kulowa gawo lomaliza la kugwetsa zida zanyukiliya zaku North Korea.
Zolephera za Strategic Patience
Monga oyang'anira asanakhalepo, Purezidenti Obama adachedwa kukambirana ndi North Korea. Ngakhale a Obama adanenanso momveka bwino kuti atenga njira yolimbikitsira ndi "kuthandizira" maulamuliro "ofuna kukuchotsani nkhonya," North Korea idatsika pamndandanda wake wazofunikira zakunja.
M'malo mwake, mfundo ya "kuleza mtima" idayimilira kuyesetsa kulikonse kuti North Korea ibwerere pagome lokambirana. Ngakhale khomo la zokambirana lidali lotseguka mwaukadaulo, United States idatsata zilango ndi kampeni zokakamiza osati mosiyana ndi momwe olamulira a Trump alili pano. North Korea idabwezeranso zomwe zayambitsa, kuphatikiza kuyesa kwachiwiri kwa zida zanyukiliya ndi mikangano iwiri yakupha pamalire ake ndi South Korea.
Sizinafike mpaka 2011 pomwe olamulira a Obama adayambiranso zokambirana za denuclearization. Pambuyo pa nthawi yochepa pambuyo pa imfa ya Kim Jong Il, maiko awiriwa adalengeza mgwirizano wa "Leap Day" mu February 2012. North Korea inavomereza kuti ayimitse kuyesa kwake kwa mizinga ndi zida za nyukiliya kwa nthawi yayitali kuti athetse matani a 240,000 a chakudya. .
Patatha masiku XNUMX, North Korea idalengeza za mapulani ake oponya satellite mumlengalenga. United States idawona kuti kukhazikitsidwa kotereku kuphwanya mgwirizano, pomwe North Korea ankadzinenera, "kuwulutsa kwa satelayiti sikunaphatikizidwe ndi zida zakutali" ndipo anapitiriza ndi mapulani ake.
Oyang'anira nthawi yomweyo adasiya mgwirizano, zomwe zidadabwitsa zomwe zidachitika kale ku US kuthana ndi kuopsa kwaukadaulo wogwiritsa ntchito kawiri. Mwachitsanzo, kwa zaka zambiri dziko la United States linakana pempho la dziko la South Korea lowonjezera mivi yawo yophulitsa poopa kuti liyambitsa mpikisano wa zida zankhondo. Pakati pazovuta zomwe zikukulirakulira, United States idachita mgwirizano mu 2001 womwe udakulitsa kuchuluka kwa ntchito zoponya mizinga ku South Korea ndikuphatikiza zopinga zina pa pulogalamu yake yotsegulira malo, monga kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta amadzimadzi.
M'malo mobwereza mgwirizanowu kuti asiyanitse momveka bwino zomwe zili zovomerezeka ponena za satellite kapena missile launch, United States inalola zokambirana ndi North Korea, kachiwiri, kugwera panjira.
Njira Yokhayo
Bush akadasunga Chigwirizano Chogwirizana, ngati olimba mtima sanawononge Six Party Talks, ndipo ngati Obama akanafotokoza bwino za mgwirizano wa Leap Day, North Korea singakhale vuto la nyukiliya lomwe likugwira United States ndi ogwirizana nawo lero.
Koma malonjezo othyoledwa ndi milatho yowotchedwa si chifukwa chosiyira zokambirana. Pali maphunziro ambiri mkati mwa ming'alu ya mbiri yosagwirizana yomwe ikuyenera kuchotsedwa, kuphatikiza kufunikira kothana ndi nkhawa zachitetezo ku North Korea komanso kufunikira kwa mgwirizano wa US interagency.
Pali mwayi woti agwirizane ndi North Korea, koma a Trump akuwopseza kuti atseka nthawi iliyonse akanyalanyaza kufunika kwa zokambirana. Monga purezidenti aliyense popeza Clinton afika pomvetsetsa, ngati njira ina ndi North Korea ndi nkhondo, njira iliyonse yaukazembe iyenera kufufuzidwa mokwanira. Miyoyo ya anthu mamiliyoni ambiri ili m’mavuto.
Catherine Killough ndi Roger L. Hale Fellow ku Plowshares Fund, maziko achitetezo padziko lonse lapansi. Anamupeza MA ku Asia Studies kuchokera ku School of Foreign Service ku Georgetown University. Tsatirani pa Twitter @catkillough. Chithunzi: Jimmy Carter ndi Kim Il Sung.
