Musanyalanyaze nkhani yovutayi - mfundo za Trump ku Iran zidzakhala ngati Obama

Zilengezo zoyamba zapagulu za olamulira a Purezidenti Donald Trump ku Iran zapangitsa kuti anthu ambiri aziganiza kuti dziko la US likhala mwaukali kwambiri ku Islamic Republic kuposa pautsogoleri wa Barack Obama.

Koma ngakhale machenjezo amwano kwa Tehran ndi tsopano mlangizi wakale wa chitetezo cha dziko Michael Flynn komanso ndi a Trump mwiniwake, ndondomeko ya Iran yomwe yayamba kukhazikika m'masabata oyambirira a utsogoleri ikuwoneka ngati yofanana ndi ya Obama.

Chifukwa chake ndikuti mfundo za olamulira a Obama pa Iran zikuwonetsa malingaliro a gulu lachitetezo cha dziko lomwe limatsatira malingaliro okhwima mofanana ndi a olamulira a Trump.

Flynn analengeza pa 1 February kuti olamulira a Obama "alephera kuyankha mokwanira ku zoyipa za Tehran" ndipo adanenanso kuti zinthu zikhala zosiyana pansi pa Trump. Koma zonenazi zinali zosocheretsa, pokhudzana ndi mfundo za olamulira a Obama ku Iran komanso zosankha zomwe Trump angachite kupyola ndondomekoyi.

The 'malig influence'

Lingaliro loti a Obama mwanjira ina adakhala bwinja ndi Iran silikuwonetsa zenizeni za chiphunzitso cha utsogoleri wakale pa Iran.

Mgwirizano wa nyukiliya wa Obama ndi Iran unakwiyitsa anthu ochita zinthu monyanyira, koma zokambirana zake za nyukiliya zinali kutengera kuyesa kukakamiza Iran kusiya zambiri za pulogalamu yake ya nyukiliya momwe zingathere kudzera muzokakamiza zosiyanasiyana, kuphatikizapo kuukira kwa cyber, zilango zachuma komanso kuwopseza kuukira kwa Israeli.

Ngakhale mawu a Trump okhudza momwe mgwirizano wa nyukiliya unalili woyipa, adaganiza kale kuti boma lake silingawononge kapena kuwononga mgwirizano ndi Iran, zomwe zidafotokozedwa momveka bwino ndi akuluakulu aboma omwe adauza atolankhani tsiku lomwelo "pazidziwitso" za Flynn. ” kukwiya. Gulu la a Trump laphunzira kuti palibe Israeli, kapena Saudi Arabia omwe akufuna kuti izi zichitike.

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Pazinthu zazikulu zakukhudzidwa kwa Iran ku Middle East, mfundo za Obama zikuwonetsa malingaliro a dziko lachitetezo chamuyaya, lomwe lawona Iran ngati mdani wosatheka kwazaka zambiri, kuyambira pomwe CIA ndi asitikali aku US anali pankhondo ndi Asilamu. Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ndi magulu ankhondo a Shia ku Strait of Hormuz ndi Beirut m'ma 1980.

Mmodzi wa gulu lankhondo lalikulu la Iran Revolutionary Guards akuimba mawu oti amenyera sitima yapamadzi panthawi yoyeserera ku Strait of Hormuz mu February 2015 (AFP)

Kutsutsana komwe gulu la a Trump lawonetsa pa gawo lachigawo cha Iran sikusiyana ndi zomwe zanenedwa ndi olamulira a Obama kwa zaka zambiri. Mlembi wa chitetezo James Mattis watero adatchula "chikoka cha Iran" ndipo adatcha Iran "mphamvu yayikulu yosokoneza" m'derali. Koma Obama ndipo lake alangizi a chitetezo cha dziko adalankhulanso mosalekeza za "zosokoneza" za Iran.

Mu 2015, olamulira a Obama adagwiritsa ntchito mawu ngati "chikoka choyipa" komanso "ntchito zoyipa" nthawi zambiri kotero kuti zidali. akuti akhala "buzzword yaposachedwa yaku Washington".

Mapurezidenti osiyanasiyana, ndondomeko zomwezo

Kuyambira ndi Purezidenti Bill Clinton, olamulira onse adzudzula dziko la Iran kuti ndilo dziko lomwe limathandizira kwambiri zauchigawenga, osati chifukwa cha umboni uliwonse koma mfundo yokhazikika ya mfundo za US. Kuyambira ndi bomba la World Trade Center la 1993, oyang'anira Clinton adadzudzula Iran chifukwa cha zigawenga zilizonse padziko lapansi ngakhale kafukufuku asanayambe.

Kuyambira ndi Purezidenti Bill Clinton, boma lililonse ladzudzula dziko la Iran kuti ndilo dziko lothandizira kwambiri zauchigawenga

Monga ndidazindikira kuchokera pakufufuza kwakanthawi muzonse ziwiri Kuphulika kwa mabomba ku Buenos Aires ku 1994 ndi Khobar Towers kuphulitsa bomba wa 1996, umboni womwe unkaganiziridwa kuti Iran watenga nawo gawo mwina unalibe kapena wodetsedwa. Koma palibe chomwe chidalepheretsa nkhani yopitilira Iran ngati dziko lachigawenga.

Alangizi ena a Trump akuti akhala akukambilana za malangizo omwe apulezidenti angapereke ku dipatimenti ya Boma kuti iganizire kusankha IRGC ngati bungwe la zigawenga.

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Koma kusamuka koteroko kungagwere m’gulu la zidzukulu zandale m’malo mwa mfundo zazikulu. IRGC ili kale ndi zilango pansi pa mapulogalamu osachepera atatu osiyana a US, monga katswiri wazamalamulo Tyler Culis. wanena. Kuphatikiza apo, gulu lankhondo la Quds, lomwe ndi dzanja la IRGC lomwe likugwira ntchito kunja kwa Iran, ladziwika kuti ndi "Special Designated Global Terrorist" kwa zaka pafupifupi khumi.

Chokhacho chomwe gululi lingachite ndikulola United States kulanga akuluakulu aku Iraq omwe gulu lankhondo la Quds lakhala likuchita nawo motsutsana ndi gulu la Islamic State.

Malingaliro aliwonse okhudza kuwopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ayenera kuvomerezedwa ndi Pentagon ndi Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Gulu la a Trump lawonetsa cholinga chake chothandizira kwambiri mfundo za Saudi Arabia zotsutsana ndi Iran. Koma tsopano zikuwoneka kuti Trump sakufuna kuchita chilichonse cholimbana ndi boma la Assad kuposa momwe Obama analiri. Ndipo ku Yemen, olamulira atsopanowa sakukonzekera kuchita chilichonse chomwe Obama sanachite kale.

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Atafunsidwa ngati olamulira "akuwunikanso" nkhondo ya Saudi ku Yemen, mkulu wa boma adayankha limodzi liwu limodzi: "Ayi". Izi zikuwonetsa kuti a Trump apitiliza ndondomeko ya kayendetsedwe ka Obama yolemba ntchito yophulitsa bomba motsogozedwa ndi Saudi ku Yemen - kupereka kukwera kwa ndege, mabomba komanso thandizo lazandale - zomwe ndizofunikira pankhondo ya Riyadh.

Maboma onse a Obama ndi a Trump akuwoneka kuti akugawana nawo udindo pakuphulika kwakukulu komanso kosasankha mwadala kwa mizinda yolamulidwa ndi Houthi komanso njala yomwe ilipo komanso yomwe imayambitsa. Ana 2.2 miliyoni aku Yemeni.

Ponena za pulogalamu ya missile ya Iran, palibe kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa maulamuliro awiriwa. Pa 1 Januware, Akuluakulu a Trump adayitana Kuyesa kwa zida za Iran kumapeto kwa Januware "kusokoneza" komanso "kudzutsa". Koma olamulira a Obama ndi ogwirizana nawo aku Europe adatulutsa a chidziwitso mu Marichi 2016 kutcha kuyesa mizinga yaku Iran "kusokoneza komanso kukopa".

Trump adapereka chilango chifukwa cha kuphwanya kwa Iran kwa chisankho cha UN Security Council cha 2015 - ngakhale kuti chigamulocho chinagwiritsa ntchito chinenero chosagwirizana komanso kuti mizinga ya Iran sinapangidwe kunyamula zida za nyukiliya. Ulamuliro wa Obama zilango chifukwa Iran akuti ikuphwanya lamulo la Bush la 2005.

Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu sikutheka

Komabe, wina angatsutse kuti kufanizitsaku kumangofotokoza zoyambira za ndondomeko ya Trump ku Iran, ndikutsutsa kuti Washington ikukonzekera kupititsa patsogolo zovuta zankhondo, kuphatikizapo kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu.

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Ndizowona kuti kuthekera kwa mfundo zankhondo zankhanza kwambiri kuchokera ku kayendetsedwe ka Trump sikungathetsedwe, koma malingaliro aliwonse okhudzana ndi kuwopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ayenera kuvomerezedwa ndi Pentagon ndi Joint Chiefs of Staff, ndi ndizokayikitsa kuti zingachitike.

Mtengo wa asitikali aku US kuukira Iran lero ungakhale wokwera kwambiri, chifukwa cha kuthekera kwa Iran kubwezera zida za US ku Qatar ndi Bahrain.

Nthawi yomaliza yomwe US ​​​​inaganizira za kulimbana kwankhondo ndi Iran inali muulamuliro wa George W Bush. Mu 2007 Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti a Dick Cheney adaganiza kuti nkhondo ya US ikhazikike ku Iran malinga ndi zomwe Iran idachita pankhondo yaku Iraq yolimbana ndi asitikali aku US. Koma mlembi wa chitetezo, Robert M Gates, mothandizidwa ndi Joint Chiefs of Staff, anachoka ku khama poumirira kuti Cheney afotokoze momwe kukwerako kutha.

Panali chifukwa chabwino kwambiri chomwe dongosololi silinapambane ndi Pentagon ndi JCS. Nthawi yomwe US ​​​​imatha kuukira Iran popanda chilango inali itadutsa kale. Mu 2007, kuukira kulikonse ku Iran kukanayika pachiwopsezo cha kutayika kwa zombo zambiri zaku US ku Gulf kupita ku zida zankhondo zaku Iran.

Masiku ano, mtengo wa asitikali aku US ungakhale wokwera kwambiri, chifukwa cha kuthekera kwakukulu kwa Iran kubwezera ndi mizinga ndi zolipirira wamba motsutsana ndi maziko aku US ku Qatar ndi Bahrain.

Pamapeto pake, mfundo zazikulu za ndondomeko ya US ku Iran nthawi zonse zimasonyeza maganizo ndi zofuna za dziko lokhazikika la chitetezo cha dziko kuposa maganizo a pulezidenti. Izi zatsimikizira chidani chosatha ku US ku Iran, komanso zikutanthauza kupitiliza m'malo mosintha kwambiri mfundo za Trump.

- Gareth Porter ndi mtolankhani wodziyimira pawokha wofufuza komanso wopambana mphotho ya 2012 ya Gellhorn ya utolankhani. Iye ndiye mlembi wa Crisis Yopangidwa Posachedwa: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare.

Malingaliro omwe ali m'nkhaniyi ndi a wolemba ndipo sakuwonetsa ndondomeko ya olemba a Middle East Eye.

Chithunzi: IranAnthu akutenga nawo mbali pamwambo wokumbukira chikumbutso cha Iran1979 Islamic Revolution, ku Tehran, Iran pa 10 February (Reuters)