Mmene Mayiko Akumadzulo Anayankhira Njira Zowopsa za Nyukiliya za ku Russia pa Ukraine

ndi Milan Rai, Mtendere wa Uthenga, March 4, 2022

Pamwamba pa mantha ndi mantha omwe amabwera chifukwa cha kuukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine, ambiri adadabwa ndi kuchita mantha ndi mawu ndi zochita za pulezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin posachedwa ponena za zida zake za nyukiliya.

Jens Stoltenberg, mlembi wamkulu wa mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya wa NATO wotchedwa Kusuntha kwaposachedwa kwa nyukiliya ku Russia pa Ukraine 'yopanda udindo' komanso 'zolankhula zowopsa'. MP wa Conservative waku Britain Tobias Ellwood, yemwe ndi wapampando wa komiti yosankha chitetezo ya House of Commons, anachenjezedwa (komanso pa 27 February) kuti Purezidenti waku Russia Vladimir Putin 'angagwiritse ntchito zida za nyukiliya ku Ukraine'. Wapampando wa Conservative wa komiti yosankhidwa ya Commons Foreign Affairs, Tom Tugendhat, anawonjezera pa 28 February: 'sizingatheke kuti gulu lankhondo la Russia logwiritsa ntchito zida zanyukiliya pabwalo lankhondo liperekedwe.'

Kumapeto kwa zinthu, Stephen Walt, pulofesa wa ubale wapadziko lonse pa Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, adanena ndi New York Times: 'Mwayi wanga wa kufa m'nkhondo ya nyukiliya udakali wochepa kwambiri, ngakhale utakhala waukulu kuposa dzulo.'

Ngakhale mwayi wankhondo wa nyukiliya ungakhale waukulu kapena wawung'ono, ziwopsezo za nyukiliya za ku Russia ndizosokoneza komanso zosaloledwa; zikufanana ndi uchigawenga wa nyukiliya.

Tsoka ilo, izi sizoyamba ziwopsezo zotere zomwe dziko lapansi lawona. Ziwopsezo za nyukiliya zidapangidwa kale, kuphatikiza - zovuta momwe zingakhalire kukhulupirira - ndi US ndi Britain.

Njira ziwiri zofunika

Pali njira ziwiri zomwe mungatulutsire chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya: kudzera m'mawu anu kapena zochita zanu (zomwe mumachita ndi zida zanu za nyukiliya).

Boma la Russia lapanga mitundu yonse yazizindikiro m'masiku ndi masabata angapo apitawa. Putin walankhula zowopseza ndipo wasunthanso ndikusonkhanitsa zida zanyukiliya zaku Russia.

Tiyeni tiwone bwinobwino, Putin ali kale ntchito Zida za nyukiliya zaku Russia.

Wofalitsa nkhani zankhondo ku US Daniel Ellsberg wanena kuti zida za nyukiliya ndi ntchito pamene ziwopsezo zoterozo zapangidwa, m’njira yakuti ‘mfuti imagwiritsiridwa ntchito pamene mukuiloza pamutu pa munthu mumkangano wachindunji, kaya chowomberacho chikukokedwa kapena ayi’.

M'munsimu ndi mawu ogwidwawo mu nkhani. Ellsberg akunena kuti ziwopsezo za nyukiliya zakhala zikuchitika nthawi zambiri m'mbuyomu - ndi US:

"Lingaliro lodziwika kwa pafupifupi anthu onse aku America kuti "palibe zida zanyukiliya zomwe zagwiritsidwa ntchito kuyambira Nagasaki" ndi zolakwika. Sizili choncho kuti zida za nyukiliya zaku US zangowunjikana kwazaka zambiri - tili ndi 30,000 ya izo tsopano, titatha kuwononga zikwi zambiri zosagwiritsidwa ntchito - zosagwiritsidwa ntchito komanso zosagwiritsidwa ntchito, kupatula ntchito imodzi yokha yoletsa kugwiritsa ntchito kwawo motsutsana ndi ife. A Soviet. Mobwereza bwereza, mwachinsinsi kuchokera kwa anthu a ku America, zida za nyukiliya za US zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito, pazifukwa zosiyana kwambiri: momwe mfuti imagwiritsidwira ntchito pamene mukuyiloza pamutu pa munthu wina, kaya ndi choyambitsa kapena ayi. amakokedwa.'

'Zida za nyukiliya za ku United States zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito, pazifukwa zosiyana kwambiri: m'njira yeniyeni imene mfuti imagwiritsidwira ntchito mukamayiloza pamutu pa munthu mukulimbana mwachindunji, kaya chowomberacho chikukokedwa kapena ayi.'

Ellsberg anapereka mndandanda wa ziwopsezo za nyukiliya za 12 za US, kuyambira 1948 mpaka 1981. (Iye anali kulemba mu 1981.) Mndandandawu ukhoza kuwonjezedwa lero. Zitsanzo zina zaposachedwa zapatsidwa mu Bulletin ya Atomic Asayansi mu 2006. Mutuwu umakambidwa momasuka ku US kuposa ku UK. Ngakhale dipatimenti ya boma yaku US imalemba zitsanzo zina za zomwe imatcha US 'kuyesera kugwiritsa ntchito chiwopsezo cha nkhondo yanyukiliya kuti akwaniritse zolinga zaukazembe'. Limodzi mwa mabuku aposachedwa kwambiri pankhaniyi ndi Joseph Gerson'm Empire ndi Bomba: Momwe US ​​Amagwiritsira Ntchito Zida Zanyukiliya Kulamulira Dziko Lapansi (Pluto, 2007).

Chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha Putin

Kubwerera kumasiku ano, Purezidenti Putin anati pa 24 February, m'mawu ake olengeza za kuwukira:

'Tsopano ndikufuna kunena chinachake chofunikira kwambiri kwa iwo omwe angayesedwe kusokoneza zochitika izi kuchokera kunja. Ziribe kanthu kuti ndani amene angayese kuima m’njira yathu kapena makamaka kudzetsa ziwopsezo kwa dziko lathu ndi anthu athu, iwo ayenera kudziŵa kuti dziko la Russia lidzayankha mwamsanga, ndipo zotsatira zake zidzakhala monga zimene simunaziwonepo m’mbiri yanu yonse.’

Izi zidawerengedwa ndi ambiri, molondola, ngati chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya.

Putin anapitiliza:

'Ponena za nkhondo, ngakhale pambuyo pa kutha kwa USSR ndikutaya gawo lalikulu la mphamvu zake, Russia yamasiku ano idakali imodzi mwa mayiko amphamvu kwambiri a nyukiliya. Komanso, ili ndi mwayi wina mu zida zingapo zamakono. M'nkhaniyi, sikuyenera kukhala ndi chikaiko kwa aliyense kuti woukira aliyense angagonjetsedwe ndi zotsatirapo zake zoopsa ngati ataukira dziko lathu mwachindunji.'

M’chigawo choyamba, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya chinali pa anthu amene ‘akusokoneza’ kuukirako. M'chigawo chachiwiri ichi, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya chimanenedwa kuti chikutsutsana ndi 'achiwawa' omwe 'adzaukira dziko lathu mwachindunji'. Tikazindikira zabodza izi, a Putin akuwopseza kuti agwiritsa ntchito Bomba pamagulu aliwonse akunja omwe 'awukire mwachindunji' magulu aku Russia omwe akuwukira.

Choncho mawu onse awiriwo angatanthauze chinthu chomwecho: 'Ngati mayiko a Kumadzulo alowa nawo nkhondo ndikuyambitsa mavuto kaamba ka kuwukira kwathu ku Ukraine, titha kugwiritsa ntchito zida zanyukiliya, kupanga "zotsatira zomwe simunaziwonepo m'mbiri yanu yonse".'

Zowopsa za nyukiliya za George HW Bush

Ngakhale kuti chinenero chamtunduwu chikugwirizanitsidwa tsopano ndi pulezidenti wakale wa US Donald Trump, sizosiyana kwambiri ndi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi pulezidenti wa US George HW Bush.

Mu Januwale 1991, Bush adapereka chiwopsezo ku Iraq nkhondo ya Gulf ya 1991 isanachitike. Adalemba uthenga womwe adaperekedwa ndi mlembi wa dziko la US James Baker kwa nduna yakunja yaku Iraq, Tariq Aziz. Mu zake kalata, Bush analemba kwa mtsogoleri waku Iraq Saddam Hussein:

'Ndiloleni ndinenenso kuti dziko la United States silingalole kugwiritsa ntchito zida za mankhwala kapena zamoyo kapena kuwononga minda yamafuta ya Kuwait. Kupitilira apo, mudzakhala ndi mlandu wachigawenga wokhudza aliyense wamgwirizanowu. Anthu aku America angafune kuyankha mwamphamvu kwambiri. Inuyo ndi dziko lanu mudzalipira mtengo woipa ngati mutalamula kuti muchite zinthu mopanda chikumbumtima.'

Baker anawonjezera chenjezo lapakamwa. Ngati Iraq idagwiritsa ntchito zida zamankhwala kapena zachilengedwe polimbana ndi asitikali aku US, 'Anthu aku America adzafuna kubwezera. Ndipo tili ndi njira zopezera izi…. [T] zake si zowopseza, ndi lonjezo.' Baker anapita kunena kuti, ngati zida zoterezi zikanagwiritsidwa ntchito, cholinga cha US 'sichingakhale kumasulidwa kwa Kuwait, koma kuthetsa ulamuliro wa Iraq wamakono'. (Aziz anakana kutenga kalatayo.)

Chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha US ku Iraq mu Januware 1991 chili ndi zofananira ndi zomwe Putin adawopseza mu 2022.

M’zochitika zonsezi, chiwopsezocho chinali pa ndawala inayake yankhondo ndipo, m’lingaliro lina, chinali chishango cha nyukiliya.

Pankhani ya Iraq, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha Bush chinali makamaka chofuna kupewa kugwiritsa ntchito zida zamitundu ina (mankhwala ndi zachilengedwe) komanso mitundu ina ya zochita zaku Iraq (uchigawenga, kuwononga minda yamafuta a Kuwait).

Masiku ano, kuwopseza kwa Putin sikudziwika kwenikweni. Matthew Harries wa gulu lankhondo laku Britain la RUSI, adanena ndi Guardian kuti mawu a Putin anali, poyambirira, mantha osavuta: 'tikhoza kukupwetekani, ndipo kumenyana nafe ndikoopsa'. Iwo analinso chikumbutso kwa Kumadzulo kuti asapite patali kuthandiza boma la Ukraine. Harries adati: 'Zingakhale kuti Russia ikukonzekera kukwera koopsa ku Ukraine ndipo ichi ndi chenjezo la "kusunga" kumadzulo.' Pamenepa, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya ndi chishango choteteza zida zankhondo za NATO, osati zida zamtundu uliwonse.

'Zovomerezeka ndi zomveka'

Pamene funso la kuvomerezeka kwa zida za nyukiliya linapita patsogolo pa Khoti Ladziko Lonse ku 1996, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha US ku Iraq mu 1991 chinatchulidwa ndi mmodzi wa oweruza m'malingaliro ake olembedwa. Woweruza Khoti Lapadziko Lonse Stephen Schwebel (wa ku US) analemba kuti chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha Bush/Baker, ndi kupambana kwake, zinasonyeza kuti, 'nthawi zina, kuopseza kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya - bola ngati zida zankhondo zosaloledwa ndi malamulo a mayiko - zikhoza kukhala zovomerezeka komanso zomveka.'

Schwebel adatsutsa kuti, chifukwa Iraq sanagwiritse ntchito zida za mankhwala kapena zamoyo atalandira chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha Bush / Baker, mwachiwonekere. chifukwa idalandira uthenga uwu, chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya chinali Chabwino:

"Chotero pali umboni wodabwitsa wosonyeza kuti wachiwembu anali kapena adalepheretsedwa kugwiritsa ntchito zida zosaloledwa zowononga magulu ankhondo ndi mayiko omwe akulimbana ndi nkhanza zake pakuitana kwa United Nations ndi zomwe woukirayo adawona kuti ndizowopseza. kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya polimbana nawo ngati atayamba kugwiritsa ntchito zida zowononga anthu ambiri motsutsana ndi magulu ankhondo amgwirizanowu. Kodi tingatsimikize kuti kuwopseza kwa Bambo Baker - ndikuwoneka bwino - kunali kosaloledwa? Ndithudi mfundo za Tchata cha United Nations zinachirikizidwa m’malo mwa kuswa chiwopsezocho.’

Pakhoza kukhala woweruza wa ku Russia, nthawi ina m'tsogolomu, yemwe akunena kuti chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha Putin 'chinachirikiza m'malo mophwanya' mfundo za UN Charter (ndi malamulo onse apadziko lonse) chifukwa zinali zothandiza 'kulepheretsa' kusokoneza kwa NATO. .

Taiwan, 1955

Chitsanzo china cha chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya cha US chomwe chimakumbukiridwa ku Washington DC kuti 'chogwira ntchito' chidabwera mu 1955, ku Taiwan.

Panthawi ya Vuto Loyamba la Taiwan Strait, lomwe linayamba mu September 1954, gulu lankhondo la China Communist People's Liberation Army (PLA) linavumbitsa zida zankhondo pazilumba za Quemoy ndi Matsu (zolamulidwa ndi boma la Taiwan la Guomindang/KMT). Patangopita masiku ochepa kuphulitsidwa kwa bomba kuyambika, akuluakulu aboma a US adalimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya ku China poyankha. Kwa miyezi ingapo, zimenezo zinali zokambitsirana mwamseri, ngati zinali zazikulu.

PLA idachita ntchito zankhondo. (Zilumba zomwe zikukhudzidwa zili pafupi kwambiri ndi dziko. Mmodzi ali pamtunda wa makilomita 10 kuchokera ku China pamene ali pamtunda wa makilomita oposa 100 kuchokera pachilumba chachikulu cha Taiwan.) KMT inachitanso ntchito zankhondo kumtunda.

Pa 15 Marichi 1955, mlembi wa boma wa US John Foster Dulles adanena msonkhano wa atolankhani kuti US ikhoza kulowererapo pankhondo yaku Taiwan ndi zida za nyukiliya: 'zida zazing'ono za atomiki… zimapereka mwayi wopambana pabwalo lankhondo popanda kuvulaza anthu wamba'.

Uthenga uwu udalimbikitsidwa ndi pulezidenti wa US tsiku lotsatira. Dwight D Eisenhower adanena atolankhani kuti, pankhondo iliyonse, 'pamene zinthu izi [zida za nyukiliya] zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pazolinga zankhondo komanso zolinga zankhondo, sindikuwona chifukwa chomwe sayenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito chimodzimodzi monga momwe mungagwiritsire ntchito chipolopolo kapena china chilichonse. '.

Tsiku lotsatira, wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti Richard Nixon anati: 'Zophulika mwanzeru za atomiki tsopano ndi zachilendo ndipo zidzagwiritsidwa ntchito motsutsana ndi milingo yamphamvu iliyonse' ku Pacific.

Eisenhower adabweranso tsiku lotsatira ndi zilankhulo zambiri za 'chipolopolo': nkhondo yanyukiliya yochepa inali njira yatsopano yanyukiliya pomwe 'banja latsopano la zida zotchedwa tactical kapena battlefield zida za nyukiliya' likhoza kukhala 'amagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati zipolopolo'.

Izi zinali ziwopsezo za nyukiliya zapagulu motsutsana ndi China, lomwe silinali dziko la nyukiliya. (China sinayese bomba lake loyamba la nyukiliya mpaka 1964.)

Mwachinsinsi, asitikali aku US anasankha zolinga za nyukiliya kuphatikizapo misewu, njanji ndi mabwalo a ndege m'mphepete mwa nyanja ya kumwera kwa China ndi zida za nyukiliya za US zidatumizidwa ku US base ku Okinawa, Japan. Asilikali aku US akukonzekera kutembenuza zida za zida za nyukiliya kupita ku Taiwan.

China idasiya kuwononga zisumbu za Quemoy ndi Matsu pa Meyi 1, 1955.

Pokhazikitsa mfundo zakunja zaku US, ziwopsezo zonse zanyukiliya ku China zimawoneka ngati kugwiritsa ntchito bwino zida zanyukiliya zaku US

Mu Januwale 1957, a Dulles adakondwerera poyera momwe ziwopsezo zanyukiliya zaku US zaku US zimalimbana ndi China. Iye adanena moyo kuti ziwopsezo za US kuti zitha kuphulitsa mabomba ku China ndi zida za nyukiliya zidabweretsa atsogoleri ake pa zokambirana zaku Korea. Adanenanso kuti olamulira adalepheretsa China kutumiza asitikali ku Vietnam potumiza zida ziwiri zankhondo zaku US zokhala ndi zida zanyukiliya ku South China Sea mu 1954. Dulles adawonjezeranso kuti ziwopsezo zofananira zolimbana ndi China ndi zida za nyukiliya 'pomaliza zidayimitsa ku Formosa' (Taiwan). ).

Pakukhazikitsidwa kwa mfundo zakunja zaku US, ziwopsezo zonse za nyukiliya ku China zimawoneka ngati kugwiritsa ntchito bwino zida zanyukiliya zaku US, zitsanzo zopambana za nyukiliya (mawu aulemu ndi 'diplomacy ya atomiki').

Izi ndi zina mwa njira zomwe Kumadzulo kwatsegulira njira zowopseza za nyukiliya za Putin lero.

(Chatsopano, chowopsa, tsatanetsatane za pafupi ntchito zida za nyukiliya mu Second Straits Crisis mu 1958 anali kuwululidwa ndi Daniel Ellsberg mu 2021. Iye tweeted pa nthawiyo: 'Zindikirani kwa @JoeBiden: phunzirani kuchokera ku mbiri yachinsinsi iyi, ndipo musabwereze misala iyi.')

hardware

Mutha kupanganso ziwopsezo za nyukiliya popanda mawu, kudzera pazomwe mumachita ndi zida zomwezo. Powasunthira pafupi ndi mkangano, kapena kukweza chenjezo la nyukiliya, kapena pochita masewera a zida za nyukiliya, dziko lingathe kutumiza chizindikiro cha nyukiliya; kupanga chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya.

Putin wasuntha zida za nyukiliya za ku Russia, kuziyika patsogolo, ndipo adatsegulanso mwayi woti adzazitumiza ku Belarus. Oyandikana nawo a Belarus a Ukraine, anali poyambira gulu lankhondo lakumpoto masiku angapo apitawo, ndipo tsopano watumiza asitikali ake kuti alowe nawo gulu lankhondo laku Russia.

Gulu la akatswiri analemba mu Bulletin ya Atomic Asayansi pa 16 February, Russia isanaukirenso:

"M'mwezi wa February, zithunzi zowonekera za gulu la Russia zidatsimikizira kuthamangitsidwa kwa mivi yaifupi ya Iskander, kuyika kwa mizinga yapamtunda ya 9M729 ku Kaliningrad, komanso mayendedwe a zida za Khinzal zowulutsidwa ndi ndege kupita kumalire a Ukraine. Zonse pamodzi, zida zoponyazi zimatha kugunda mozama ku Europe ndikuwopseza mizinda ingapo ya mamembala a NATO. Zida zoponyera zida za ku Russia sizinapangidwe kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito polimbana ndi Ukraine, koma pofuna kuthana ndi zoyesayesa zilizonse za NATO polowererapo pamalingaliro a Russia "pafupi ndi kunja."

Mivi ya Iskander-M yamsewu, yaufupi (makilomita 300) imatha kunyamula zida zankhondo wamba kapena zanyukiliya. Iwo atumizidwa m'chigawo cha Kaliningrad ku Russia, pafupi ndi Poland, pafupifupi makilomita 200 kuchokera kumpoto kwa Ukraine. kuyambira 2018. Russia yawafotokoza ngati kauntala ku zida zoponya za US zomwe zidatumizidwa ku Eastern Europe. A Iskander-Ms akuti adasonkhanitsidwa ndikuyikidwa tcheru pokonzekera kuwukira kwaposachedwa.

Chombo cha 9M729 chomwe chinayambika pansi ('Screwdriver' kupita ku NATO) akuti asilikali a ku Russia amangokhala ndi makilomita 300 okha. Akatswiri akumadzulo Khulupirirani ili ndi utali wapakati pa 300 ndi 3,400 mailosi. 9M729 imatha kunyamula zida zanyukiliya. Malinga ndi malipoti, mizingayi yayikidwanso m'chigawo cha Kaliningard, kumalire a Poland. Onse aku Western Europe, kuphatikiza UK, atha kugundidwa ndi zida izi, ngati akatswiri aku Western akulondola pamitundu ya 9M729.

Mtengo wa Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ('Dagger') ndi mzinga wowulutsidwa ndi ndege womwe umayenda pamtunda wamakilomita 1,240. Itha kunyamula zida zanyukiliya, mutu wankhondo wa 500kt wamphamvu kwambiri kuposa bomba la Hiroshima. Zapangidwa kuti zizigwiritsidwa ntchito motsutsana ndi 'zapamwamba zamtengo wapatali'. Chombocho chinali kutumizidwa ku Kaliningrad (kachiwiri, yomwe ili ndi malire ndi membala wa NATO, Poland) kumayambiriro kwa February.

Ndi Iskander-Ms, zida zinalipo kale, chenjezo lawo lidakwezedwa ndipo adapangidwa kukhala okonzeka kuchitapo kanthu.

Putin ndiye adakweza mulingo wochenjeza onse Zida za nyukiliya zaku Russia. Pa February 27, Putin anati:

'Akuluakulu a maiko otsogola a Nato amalolanso mawu aukali otsutsana ndi dziko lathu, chifukwa chake ndikulamula nduna ya chitetezo ndi wamkulu wa gulu lankhondo la Russia kuti asamutsire gulu lankhondo laku Russia kuti likhale lapadera. za ntchito yankhondo.'

(Mneneri wa Kremlin Dmitry Peskov pambuyo pake kufotokozedwa kuti 'wamkulu' yemwe akufunsidwayo anali mlembi wakunja waku Britain Liz Truss, yemwe adachenjeza kuti nkhondo ya Ukraine ikhoza kuyambitsa 'mikangano' ndi mikangano pakati pa NATO ndi Russia.)

Matthew Kroenig, katswiri wa zida za nyukiliya ku Atlantic Council, adanena ndi Financial Times: 'Iyi ndi njira yankhondo yaku Russia kuti athetse ziwawa zanthawi zonse ndi ziwopsezo za nyukiliya, kapena zomwe zimadziwika kuti "njira yochepetsera kuchulukirachulukira". Uthenga wopita kumadzulo, Nato ndi US ndi, "Musalowe nawo kapena tikhoza kukwera zinthu kumtunda wapamwamba".'

Akatswiri adasokonezedwa ndi mawu akuti 'ntchito yapadera yankhondo', momwe zilili osati mbali ya chiphunzitso cha nyukiliya ku Russia. Zilibe tanthauzo lankhondo, mwa kuyankhula kwina, kotero sizikudziwika bwino zomwe zikutanthauza, kupatula kuyika zida za nyukiliya pamtundu wina watcheru.

Lamulo la Putin anali 'lamulo loyambirira' m'malo moyambitsa kukonzekera mwakhama, malinga ndi Pavel Podvig, mmodzi mwa akatswiri apamwamba padziko lonse pa zida za nyukiliya za ku Russia (ndi wasayansi ku UN Institute for Disarmament Research ku Geneva). Podvig anafotokoza: 'Monga ndikumvetsetsa momwe dongosololi limagwirira ntchito, mu nthawi yamtendere silingathe kufalitsa dongosolo loyambitsa, ngati kuti mabwalo "achotsedwa".' Kuti kudzera 'simungathe kufalitsa chizindikirocho ngakhale mutafuna. Ngakhale mutadina batani, palibe chomwe chingachitike.' Tsopano, zozungulira zalumikizidwa, 'kotero kuti dongosolo loyambitsa litha kupita kudzera ngati atapatsidwa'.

'Kulumikiza madera' kumatanthauzanso kuti zida zanyukiliya zaku Russia zitha kukhala anapezerapo ngakhale Putin mwiniwakeyo aphedwa kapena sangathe kufika - koma izi zikhoza kuchitika ngati kuphulika kwa nyukiliya kumapezeka m'dera la Russia, malinga ndi Podvig.

Zodabwitsa ndizakuti, referendum ku Belarus kumapeto kwa February amatsegula chitseko kusuntha zida zanyukiliya zaku Russia kufupi ndi Ukraine, poziyika pa dothi la Belarus kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira 1994.

'Kupanga ulemu woyenera'

Zida zonse ziwiri zosunthira zida za nyukiliya pafupi ndi mkangano komanso kukweza chenjezo la nyukiliya zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito kuwonetsa ziwopsezo za nyukiliya kwazaka zambiri.

Mwachitsanzo, pankhondo yaku Britain ndi Indonesia (1963 - 1966), yomwe imadziwika kuti 'Malasia Confrontation', dziko la UK lidatumiza zida zanyukiliya, mbali zina za "V-bomber" zoletsa zida zanyukiliya. Tikudziwa tsopano kuti mapulani ankhondo amangokhudza oponya mabomba a Victor kapena Vulcan onyamula ndikuponya mabomba wamba. Komabe, chifukwa chakuti iwo anali m’gulu lankhondo lamphamvu la nyukiliya, ananyamula chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya.

mu RAF Historical Society Journal Nkhani yokhudza zovutazi, wolemba mbiri yankhondo komanso woyendetsa ndege wakale wa RAF Humphrey Wynn akulemba:

'Ngakhale kuti ma V-mabombawa adayikidwa mwachizolowezi palibe kukayikira kuti kupezeka kwawo kunali ndi zotsatira zolepheretsa. Monga ma B-29 omwe United States idatumiza ku Europe panthawi yamavuto a Berlin (1948-49), amadziwika kuti ndi "nyukiliya yokhoza", kugwiritsa ntchito mawu osavuta aku America, monganso Canberras ochokera ku Near. East Air Force ndi RAF Germany.'

Kwa omwe ali mkati, 'kuletsa zida za nyukiliya' kumaphatikizapo kuopseza (kapena 'kupanga ulemu wabwino' pakati) mbadwa.

Kunena zomveka, RAF idazungulirapo mabomba a V ku Singapore m'mbuyomu, koma pankhondoyi, adasungidwa kupitilira nthawi yawo yanthawi zonse. Mtsogoleri wa gulu lankhondo la RAF David Lee analemba m'mbiri yake ya RAF ku Asia:

'chidziwitso cha mphamvu RAF ndi luso analenga ulemu wabwino pakati pa atsogoleri Indonesia, ndi kuletsa zotsatira za omenyera ndege a RAF, oponya mabomba opepuka ndi V-bombers pagulu la Bomber Command unali mtheradi.' (David Lee, Kum'mawa: Mbiri ya RAF ku Far East, 1945 - 1970, London: HMSO, 1984, p213, kutsindika kowonjezera)

Tikuwona kuti, kwa omwe ali mkati, 'kuletsa zida za nyukiliya' kumaphatikizapo kuwopseza (kapena 'kupanga ulemu wabwino' pakati) pakati pa) mbadwa - pamenepa, kumbali ina ya dziko kuchokera ku Britain.

Sitiyenera kunena kuti Indonesia inali, panthawi ya Kulimbana, monga lero, dziko lopanda zida za nyukiliya.

Kulankhula kwa Putin kuyika mphamvu za 'kuletsa' ku Russia masiku ano kuli ndi tanthauzo lofanana ndi 'deterrence = mantha'.

Mutha kukhala mukuganiza ngati a Victors ndi Vulcans adatumizidwa ku Singapore ndi zida wamba. Izi sizikanakhudza chizindikiro champhamvu cha nyukiliya chomwe zidatumizidwa ndi mabomba a nyukiliya, chifukwa anthu a ku Indonesia sankadziwa zomwe amanyamula. Mutha kutumiza sitima yapamadzi ya Trident ku Black Sea masiku ano ndipo, ngakhale itakhala yopanda zophulika zamtundu uliwonse, zitha kutanthauziridwa ngati chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya ku Crimea ndi magulu ankhondo aku Russia mokulirapo.

Zomwe zimachitika, Prime Minister waku Britain Harold Macmillan anali ovomerezeka kusungirako zida za nyukiliya ku RAF Tengah ku Singapore mu 1962. Chida cha nyukiliya chodziwika bwino cha Red Beard chinawulutsidwa kupita ku Tengah mu 1960 ndipo ndevu 48 zenizeni zinali Red Beard. kutumizidwa kumeneko mu 1962. Chotero mabomba a nyukiliya anali kupezeka kwanuko mkati mwa nkhondo ndi Indonesia kuyambira 1963 mpaka 1966. (Ndevu Zofiira sizinachotsedwe kufikira 1971, pamene Britain anachotsa kukhalapo kwake kwankhondo ku Singapore ndi Malaysia kotheratu.)

Kuchokera ku Singapore kupita ku Kaliningrad

Pali kufanana pakati pa Britain kusunga ma V-bombers ku Singapore pankhondo ndi Indonesia ndi Russia kutumiza mizinga ya 9M729 Khinzal zida zoponya ndege ku Kaliningrad panthawi yamavuto aku Ukraine.

Muzochitika zonsezi, dziko la zida za nyukiliya likuyesera kuopseza adani ake ndi kuthekera kwa nyukiliya.

Uku ndikupezerera nyukiliya. Ndi mtundu wa uchigawenga wa nyukiliya.

Palinso zitsanzo zina zambiri za kutumizidwa kwa zida za nyukiliya zomwe zingatchulidwe. M'malo mwake, tiyeni tipite ku 'chenjezo la nyukiliya ngati chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya'.

Milandu iwiri yowopsa kwambiri ya izi idachitika mu 1973 nkhondo yaku Middle East.

Pamene Aisrayeli ankawopa kuti nkhondoyo ikulimbana ndi iwo, iwo atayikidwa zida zake za nyukiliya zapakati pa Yeriko ballistic mizinga ali tcheru, kupangitsa ma radiation awo siginecha kuonekera ku US anaziika ndege. Zolinga zoyambira ndi anati kuphatikizira likulu lankhondo la Syria, pafupi ndi Damasiko, ndi likulu lankhondo la Aigupto, pafupi ndi Cairo.

Tsiku lomwelo lomwe kulimbikitsana kudadziwika, 12 Okutobala, US idayamba kunyamula zida zazikulu zankhondo zomwe Israeli idafuna - ndipo US idakana - kwakanthawi.

Chodabwitsa pa chenjezo limeneli nlakuti chinali chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya makamaka cholunjika kwa wothandizana naye osati adani.

M'malo mwake, pali kutsutsana kuti iyi ndiye ntchito yayikulu ya zida zanyukiliya za Israeli. Mkangano uwu wafotokozedwa mu Seymour Hersh's Njira ya Samsoni, yomwe ili ndi mwatsatanetsatane nkhani ya 12 October chenjezo la Israeli. (Mawonedwe ena a 12 October aperekedwa mu izi Kufufuza kwa US.)

Posakhalitsa pambuyo pavuto la 12 October, US idakweza chenjezo la zida za nyukiliya.

Atalandira thandizo lankhondo laku US, asitikali aku Israeli adayamba kupita patsogolo ndipo bungwe la UN linanena kuti pa 14 October.

Mkulu wa akasinja a Israeli Ariel Sharon ndiye adaphwanya lamulo losiya kumenyana ndikuwoloka Suez Canal kupita ku Egypt. Mothandizidwa ndi magulu ankhondo okulirapo ankhondo motsogozedwa ndi mkulu wankhondo Avraham Adan, Sharon anawopseza kugonjetsa kotheratu magulu ankhondo a Aigupto. Cairo anali pangozi.

Soviet Union, yomwe inali yothandiza kwambiri ku Egypt panthawiyo, idayamba kusamutsa asitikali ake apamwamba kuti athandize kuteteza likulu la Egypt.

Bungwe la US News UPI malipoti mtundu umodzi wa zomwe zidachitika kenako:

'Kuti aletse Sharon [ndi Adan], Kissinger adakweza chenjezo la asitikali onse aku US padziko lonse lapansi. Otchedwa DefCons, chifukwa cha chitetezo, amagwira ntchito motsika kuchokera ku DefCon V kupita ku DefCon I, yomwe ndi nkhondo. Kissinger adalamula DefCon III. Malinga ndi yemwe kale anali mkulu wa dipatimenti ya boma ya boma, chigamulo chosamukira ku DefCon III “chinatumiza uthenga womveka bwino wakuti kuphwanya lamulo la Sharon kuletsa kumenyanako kukutiloŵetsa m’mikangano ndi Asovieti ndipo sitinkafuna kuona asilikali a ku Egypt akuwonongedwa.” '

Boma la Israeli layimitsa kuukira kwa Sharon/Adan ku Egypt.

Noam Chomsky amapereka a kutanthauzira kosiyana zochitika:

'Zaka khumi pambuyo pake, Henry Kissinger adayitana chenjezo la nyukiliya m'masiku otsiriza a nkhondo ya 1973 Israel-Arab. Cholinga chake chinali kuchenjeza anthu aku Russia kuti asasokoneze kayendetsedwe kake kakazembe, komwe adapangidwa kuti awonetsetse kuti Israeli akupambana, koma yocheperako, kotero kuti US ikadakhalabe ikuwongolera derali mosagwirizana. Ndipo zoyendetsa zinali zofewa. US ndi Russia anali atakhazikitsa mgwirizano woyimitsa moto, koma Kissinger adauza Israeli mwachinsinsi kuti anyalanyaza izi. Chifukwa chake kufunikira kwa chenjezo la nyukiliya kuopseza anthu aku Russia.'

M'matanthauzidwe onsewa, kukweza chenjezo la zida zanyukiliya ku US kunali kokhudza kuthana ndi vuto ndikukhazikitsa malire pamakhalidwe a ena. Ndizotheka kuti chenjezo laposachedwa la Putin la 'njira yapadera yomenyera nkhondo' ili ndi zolimbikitsa zofanana. Pazochitika zonsezi, monga momwe Chomsky angasonyezere, kukweza chenjezo la nyukiliya kumachepetsa m'malo mowonjezera chitetezo ndi chitetezo cha nzika zakudziko.

Carter Doctrine, Putin Chiphunzitso

Ziwopsezo zaposachedwa za nyukiliya zaku Russia ndizowopsa komanso zikuphwanya Mgwirizano wa UN Charter: 'Mamembala onse azipewa ubale wawo wapadziko lonse lapansi. kuwopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu motsutsana ndi ungwiro wadera kapena ufulu wandale wa dziko lililonse….' (Ndime 2, ndime 4, kutsindika kwawonjezera)

Mu 1996, Khoti Ladziko Lonse analamulira kuti kuwopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya 'nthawi zambiri' sikuloledwa.

Malo amodzi omwe amawona mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito zida zanyukiliya mwalamulo anali pachiwopsezo cha 'kupulumuka kwa dziko'. Khoti anati 'Sizingatsimikizire motsimikiza ngati kuopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya kudzakhala kololedwa kapena kosaloledwa mumkhalidwe wovuta kwambiri wodzitetezera, momwe kupulumuka kwa Boma kungakhale pachiwopsezo'.

M'mikhalidwe yamakono, kupulumuka kwa Russia monga boma sikuli pachiwopsezo. Choncho, malinga ndi mmene Khoti Lapadziko Lonse linamasulira lamuloli, ziwopsezo za nyukiliya zomwe dziko la Russia likupereka ndi zoletsedwa.

Izi zimapitanso ku ziwopsezo zanyukiliya zaku US ndi Britain. Zomwe zidachitika ku Taiwan mu 1955 kapena ku Iraq mu 1991, kupulumuka kwadziko la US sikunali pachiwopsezo. Chilichonse chomwe chidachitika ku Malaysia chapakati pazaka sikisite, panalibe chowopsa kuti United Kingdom sichingapulumuke. Chifukwa chake ziwopsezo za nyukiliya izi (ndi zina zambiri zomwe zingatchulidwe) zinali zosaloledwa.

Othirira ndemanga aku Western omwe amathamangira kudzudzula misala ya nyukiliya ya Putin angachite bwino kukumbukira misala ya nyukiliya yaku Western m'mbuyomu.

N'zotheka kuti zomwe Russia ikuchita tsopano ikupanga ndondomeko yowonongeka, kujambula mzere wa nyukiliya mumchenga malinga ndi zomwe zidzachitike komanso zomwe sizingalole kuti zichitike ku Eastern Europe.

Ngati ndi choncho, izi zidzakhala zofanana ndi Carter Doctrine, chiwopsezo china 'chowopsa' chokhudzana ndi dera. Pa 23 Januware 1980, mu adilesi yake ya State of the Union, Purezidenti wa US Jimmy Carter anati:

"Maganizo athu akhale omveka bwino: Kuyesa kwa gulu lililonse lakunja kuti athe kulamulira dera la Persian Gulf kudzawonedwa ngati kuwukira zofuna za United States of America, ndipo kuwukira koteroko kudzabwezeredwa mwanjira iliyonse yofunikira. , kuphatikizapo gulu lankhondo.'

'Njira zilizonse zofunika' zinaphatikizapo zida za nyukiliya. Monga akatswiri awiri apanyanja aku US ndemanga: 'Ngakhale kuti zomwe zimatchedwa Carter Doctrine sizinatchule mwatchutchutchu za zida za nyukiliya, anthu ambiri amakhulupirira kuti panthawiyo kuopseza kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya kunali mbali ya njira ya US kuti alepheretse asilikali a Soviet kuti apite kum'mwera kuchokera ku Afghanistan kupita ku mayiko olemera kwambiri. Persian Gulf.'

Chiphunzitso cha Carter sichinali chiwopsezo cha nyukiliya pavuto linalake, koma mfundo yoti zida za nyukiliya za US zingagwiritsidwe ntchito ngati mphamvu yakunja (kupatulapo US yokha) ikuyesera kulamulira mafuta a Middle East. Ndizotheka kuti boma la Russia tsopano likufuna kuyika ambulera yofanana ya zida zanyukiliya ku Eastern Europe, Chiphunzitso cha Putin. Ngati ndi choncho, zidzakhala zoopsa komanso zosaloledwa monga Carter Doctrine.

Othirira ndemanga aku Western omwe amathamangira kudzudzula misala ya nyukiliya ya Putin angachite bwino kukumbukira misala ya nyukiliya yaku Western m'mbuyomu. Pafupifupi palibe chomwe chasintha m'zaka makumi angapo zapitazi kumadzulo, kaya chidziwitso cha anthu ndi maganizo kapena ndondomeko za boma ndi machitidwe, kuti aletse mayiko a Kumadzulo kuti asapange ziwopsezo za nyukiliya m'tsogolomu. Ili ndi lingaliro lodetsa nkhawa pamene tikukumana ndi kusayeruzika kwa nyukiliya yaku Russia masiku ano.

Milan Rai, mkonzi wa Mtendere wa Uthenga, ndiye mlembi wa Tactical Trident: The Rifkind Doctrine and the Third World (Mapepala a Drava, 1995). Zitsanzo zambiri zakuwopseza nyukiliya zaku Britain zitha kupezeka m'nkhani yake, '.Kuganiza Zosatheka Zosatheka Kuganiza - Kugwiritsa Ntchito Zida za Nyukiliya ndi Chitsanzo cha Propaganda'(2018).