Kodi US Ingathandize Bwanji Kubweretsa Mtendere ku Ukraine?

Wolemba Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Epulo 28, 2022
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Pa Epulo 21, Purezidenti Biden adalengeza kutumiza kwatsopano wa zida ku Ukraine, pamtengo wa $800 miliyoni kwa okhometsa msonkho aku US. Pa Epulo 25, Alembi Blinken ndi Austin adalengeza $ Miliyoni 300 thandizo lankhondo lochulukirapo. United States tsopano yawononga $ 3.7 biliyoni pa zida za Ukraine kuyambira kuwukira kwa Russia, kubweretsa thandizo lankhondo laku US ku Ukraine kuyambira 2014 mpaka pafupifupi. $ Biliyoni 6.4.

Chofunikira kwambiri pakumenya ndege zaku Russia ku Ukraine chinali kuwononga zambiri za zida zimenezi zisanafike kutsogolo kwa nkhondoyo, kotero sizikudziwikiratu kuti katundu wonyamula zida zazikuluzikuluzi akugwira ntchito motani pankhondo. Mbali ina ya "thandizo" la US ku Ukraine ndi zilango zake zachuma ndi zachuma ku Russia, zomwe zimagwiranso ntchito kwambiri osatsimikizika.

Mlembi wamkulu wa UN Antonio Guterres kuyendera Moscow ndi Kyiv kuyesa kuyambitsa zokambirana kuti athetse nkhondo ndi mgwirizano wamtendere. Popeza ziyembekezo za zokambirana zam'mbuyomu zamtendere ku Belarus ndi Turkey zidakokoloka chifukwa chakuchulukira kwa usilikali, zonena zaudani komanso milandu yandale zandale, ntchito ya Secretary General Guterres tsopano ikhoza kukhala chiyembekezo chabwino kwambiri chamtendere ku Ukraine.  

Njira iyi yachiyembekezo choyambirira cha chisankho chaukazembe chomwe chimathetsedwa mwachangu ndi psychosis yankhondo sizachilendo. Deta ya momwe nkhondo zimathera ku Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) zikuwonetseratu kuti mwezi woyamba wa nkhondo umapereka mwayi wabwino kwambiri wa mgwirizano wamtendere wokambirana. Zenera limenelo ladutsa tsopano ku Ukraine. 

An kusanthula za data ya UCDP yolembedwa ndi Center for Strategic and International Study (CSIS) idapeza kuti 44% yankhondo zomwe zimatha mkati mwa mwezi umodzi zimatha pakutha kwa mgwirizano wamtendere m'malo mogonja mbali zonse, pomwe izi zimatsika mpaka 24% pankhondo. zomwe zimakhala pakati pa mwezi ndi chaka. Nkhondo zikafika m’chaka chachiwiri, zimakhala zosalimba kwambiri ndipo nthawi zambiri zimakhala zaka zoposa khumi.

Mnzake wa CSIS a Benjamin Jensen, yemwe adasanthula zambiri za UCDP, adamaliza kuti, "Nthawi ya zokambirana ndi ino. Nkhondo ikatha nthawi yayitali popanda mgwirizano ndi mbali zonse ziwiri, m'pamenenso mkanganowo ukukulirakulira ... Kuphatikiza pa chilango, akuluakulu aku Russia amafunikira njira yothanirana ndi mikangano yomwe ithana ndi nkhawa za onse."

Kuti zinthu ziyende bwino, zokambirana zotsogolera ku mgwirizano wamtendere ziyenera kukwaniritsa zisanu zofunika zinthu:

Choyamba, mbali zonse ziyenera kupeza mapindu kuchokera m’pangano la mtendere limene limaposa zimene akuganiza kuti angapeze pankhondo.

Akuluakulu aku US ndi ogwirizana akumenya nkhondo yachidziwitso kuti alimbikitse lingaliro loti Russia ikugonja pankhondoyo ndikuti Ukraine ikhoza kumenya nkhondo. kugonjetsedwa Russia, ngakhale akuluakulu ena kuvomereza kuti izo zikhoza kutenga zaka zingapo.      

Kunena zowona, palibe mbali iliyonse imene idzapindule ndi nkhondo yanthaŵi yaitali imene imatenga miyezi kapena zaka zambiri. Miyoyo ya mamiliyoni a anthu aku Ukraine idzatayika ndikuwonongeka, pomwe Russia idzakhala mumtundu wankhondo wankhondo womwe USSR ndi United States zidakumana nazo kale ku Afghanistan, komanso kuti nkhondo zaposachedwa kwambiri zaku US zasanduka. 

Ku Ukraine, zolemba zoyambirira za mgwirizano wamtendere zilipo kale. Ndiwo: kuchotsedwa kwa magulu ankhondo aku Russia; kusalowerera ndale ku Ukraine pakati pa NATO ndi Russia; kudziyimira pawokha kwa anthu onse aku Ukraine (kuphatikiza ku Crimea ndi Donbas); ndi mgwirizano wachitetezo chachigawo womwe umateteza aliyense ndikuletsa nkhondo zatsopano. 

Magulu awiriwa akumenyera nkhondo kuti alimbitse dzanja lawo pomaliza mgwirizano wawo. Ndiye ndi anthu angati omwe ayenera kufa asanafotokozedwe zatsatanetsatane m'malo mongotaya zinyalala za matauni ndi mizinda yaku Ukraine?

Chachiwiri, oyimira pakati ayenera kukhala opanda tsankho komanso odalirika ndi mbali zonse ziwiri.

United States yakhala ikuyang'anira udindo wa mkhalapakati pavuto la Israeli-Palestine kwazaka makumi ambiri, ngakhale momwe imabwereranso poyera. mikono mbali imodzi ndi nkhanza veto yake ya UN kuti aletse kuchitapo kanthu kwa mayiko. Ichi chakhala chitsanzo chowonekera cha nkhondo yosatha.  

Turkey yakhala ngati mkhalapakati wamkulu pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, koma ndi membala wa NATO yemwe wapereka. Drones, zida ndi maphunziro a usilikali ku Ukraine. Mbali zonse ziwiri zavomereza kuyimira pakati kwa Turkey, koma kodi Turkey ikhoza kukhaladi broker wachilungamo? 

UN ikhoza kutengapo mbali yovomerezeka, monga ikuchitira ku Yemen, komwe mbali ziwirizi zili potsiriza kuwona kutha kwa miyezi iwiri. Koma ngakhale ndi khama la UN, zatenga zaka kuti akambirane kaye kaye pankhondoyo.    

Chachitatu, mgwirizanowu uyenera kuthana ndi nkhawa zazikulu zamagulu onse omwe ali pankhondo.

Mu 2014, kulanda boma mothandizidwa ndi US ndi kupha Otsutsa otsutsa boma ku Odessa adalengeza za ufulu wawo ndi Donetsk ndi Luhansk People's Republics. Mgwirizano woyamba wa Minsk Protocol mu Seputembara 2014 sunathe kuthetsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Eastern Ukraine. Kusiyanasiyana kwakukulu mu Minsk II Mgwirizano mu February 2015 unali woti DPR ndi LPR oimira adaphatikizidwa pazokambirana, ndipo adakwanitsa kuthetsa kumenyana koipitsitsa ndikuletsa kuphulika kwakukulu kwa nkhondo kwa zaka 7.

Palinso phwando lina lomwe silinalipobe pazokambirana ku Belarus ndi Turkey, anthu omwe amapanga theka la anthu a ku Russia ndi Ukraine: akazi a mayiko awiriwa. Pamene ena a iwo akumenyana, ena ambiri amatha kulankhula ngati ozunzidwa, ovulala wamba komanso othawa kwawo kunkhondo yomwe imayambitsidwa makamaka ndi amuna. Mawu a amayi patebulo akanakhala chikumbutso chosalekeza cha mtengo waumunthu wa nkhondo ndi moyo wa amayi ndi ana zomwe zili pachiwopsezo.    

Ngakhale mbali imodzi ikapambana pankhondo, madandaulo a otayika ndi nkhani za ndale ndi zanzeru zosathetsedwa kaŵirikaŵiri zimafesa mbewu za kubuka kwatsopano kwa nkhondo m’tsogolo. Monga Benjamin Jensen wa CSIS adanenera, zilakolako za ndale zaku US ndi Western kuti alange ndikupeza njira. zopindulitsa ku Russia sayenera kuloledwa kuletsa chigamulo chokwanira chomwe chimakhudza nkhawa za mbali zonse ndikuonetsetsa kuti mtendere ukhalepo.     

Chachinayi, payenera kukhala njira yopita ku mtendere wokhazikika ndi wokhazikika womwe mbali zonse zadzipereka.

The Minsk II Mgwirizanowu udapangitsa kuti pakhale vuto losiya kumenyana komanso kukhazikitsa njira yothetsera ndale. Koma boma la Ukraine ndi nyumba yamalamulo, motsogozedwa ndi Purezidenti Poroshenko kenako Zelensky, adalephera kuchitapo kanthu zomwe Poroshenko adagwirizana nazo ku Minsk mu 2015: kukhazikitsa malamulo ndi kusintha kwa malamulo kuti alole zisankho zodziyimira pawokha, zoyang'aniridwa ndi mayiko akunja ku DPR ndi LPR, ndi kuwapatsa kudzilamulira mkati federalized Chiyukireniya boma.

Tsopano kuti zolephera izi zapangitsa kuti Russia ivomereze ufulu wa DPR ndi LPR, mgwirizano watsopano wamtendere uyenera kuyang'ananso ndikuthetsa udindo wawo, ndi wa Crimea, m'njira zomwe mbali zonse zidzaperekedwe, kaya ndi kudzera mwa kudzilamulira komwe kunalonjezedwa. Minsk II kapena ovomerezeka, anazindikira ufulu ku Ukraine. 

Chomwe chimakakamira pazokambirana zamtendere ku Turkey chinali kufunikira kwa Ukraine kukhala ndi zitsimikizo zolimba zachitetezo kuti Russia isawukirenso. Charter ya UN imateteza mwalamulo maiko onse ku nkhanza zapadziko lonse, koma yalephera mobwerezabwereza pamene woukirayo, nthawi zambiri United States, akugwiritsa ntchito veto la Security Council. Ndiye kodi dziko la Ukraine losalowerera ndale lingatsimikiziridwe bwanji kuti silidzaukiridwa mtsogolomu? Ndipo kodi onse ogwirizana angatsimikizire motani kuti enawo asungabe panganoli nthaŵi ino?

Chachisanu, mayiko akunja sayenera kusokoneza zokambirana kapena kukhazikitsa mgwirizano wamtendere.

Ngakhale kuti United States ndi ogwirizana nawo a NATO sali zipani zomenyera nkhondo ku Ukraine, udindo wawo poyambitsa vutoli kudzera mukukula kwa NATO ndi 2014 kulanda, ndikuthandizira Kyiv kusiya mgwirizano wa Minsk II ndikusefukira Ukraine ndi zida, kuwapanga kukhala "njovu." m’chipinda” chimene chidzachititsa mthunzi wautali pagome lakukambitsirana, kulikonse kumene kuli.

Mu Epulo 2012, mlembi wamkulu wakale wa UN, Kofi Annan, adapanga ndondomeko yokhala ndi mfundo zisanu ndi imodzi yoyang'aniridwa ndi UN kuti athetse nkhondo komanso kusintha kwa ndale ku Syria. Koma panthawi yomwe dongosolo la Annan lidayamba kugwira ntchito ndipo oyang'anira oletsa kuphulika kwa UN anali m'malo, United States, NATO ndi mabungwe awo achifumu achiarabu adachita misonkhano itatu ya "Friends of Syria", komwe adalonjeza thandizo lazachuma komanso lankhondo ku Al. Zigawenga zogwirizana ndi Qaeda zomwe amawathandiza kuti agwetse boma la Syria. Izi adalimbikitsidwa zigawengazo kunyalanyaza kuyimitsa nkhondo, ndipo zinachititsa kuti zaka khumi za nkhondo kwa anthu a ku Syria. 

Kusalimba kwa zokambirana zamtendere ku Ukraine kumapangitsa kuti kupambana kukhale pachiwopsezo chachikulu champhamvu zotere zakunja. Dziko la United States linathandizira dziko la Ukraine polimbana ndi nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Donbas m'malo mochirikiza mgwirizano wa Minsk II, ndipo izi zayambitsa nkhondo ndi Russia. Tsopano nduna yakunja ya Turkey, Mevlut Cavosoglu, wanena CNN Turk kuti mamembala a NATO osatchulidwa mayina "akufuna kuti nkhondo ipitirire," kuti apitirize kufooketsa Russia.

Kutsiliza  

Momwe United States ndi ogwirizana nawo a NATO akuchitira pano komanso m'miyezi ikubwerayi idzakhala yofunika kwambiri kuti adziwe ngati Ukraine ikuwonongedwa ndi zaka za nkhondo, monga Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria ndi Yemen, kapena ngati nkhondoyi ikutha mwamsanga ndondomeko ya kazembe yomwe imabweretsa mtendere, chitetezo ndi bata kwa anthu aku Russia, Ukraine ndi oyandikana nawo.

Ngati United States ikufuna kuthandizira kubwezeretsa mtendere ku Ukraine, iyenera kuthandizira zokambirana zamtendere, ndikuwonetsetsa kwa mnzake, Ukraine, kuti ithandizira mgwirizano uliwonse womwe okambirana aku Ukraine amakhulupirira kuti ndikofunikira kuti akwaniritse mgwirizano wamtendere ndi Russia. 

Kaya mkhalapakati wa Russia ndi Ukraine avomereza kugwira naye ntchito kuyesa kuthana ndi vutoli, United States iyenera kupereka chithandizo chokwanira, chopanda malire, poyera komanso kumbuyo kwa zitseko zotsekedwa. Iyeneranso kuwonetsetsa kuti zochita zake sizikusokoneza mtendere ku Ukraine monga adachitira dongosolo la Annan ku Syria mu 2012. 

Chimodzi mwazinthu zovuta kwambiri zomwe atsogoleri a US ndi NATO angatenge kuti apereke chilimbikitso ku Russia kuti avomere mtendere womwe wakambirana ndikudzipereka kuti achotse zilango ngati Russia ikatsatira mgwirizano wochotsa. Popanda kudzipereka koteroko, zilangozo zidzataya msanga chikhalidwe chilichonse kapena zopindulitsa monga momwe zimakhalira ku Russia, ndipo kudzakhala kokha mtundu wa chilango chosagwirizana ndi anthu ake, komanso motsutsa. anthu osauka kulikonse amene sangathenso kupeza chakudya chodyetsa mabanja awo. Monga mtsogoleri wa gulu lankhondo la NATO, udindo wa US pa funsoli udzakhala wofunikira. 

Chifukwa chake zisankho za United States zidzakhudza kwambiri ngati posachedwa padzakhala mtendere ku Ukraine, kapena nkhondo yayitali komanso yokhetsa magazi. Mayeso a opanga mfundo aku US, komanso aku America omwe amasamala za anthu aku Ukraine, ayenera kufunsa kuti ndi ziti mwazotsatira zomwe zisankho zaku US zitha kubweretsa.

Nicolas JS Davies ndi mtolankhani wodziyimira payekha, wofufuza ndi CODEPINK komanso wolemba wa Mwazi M'manja Mwathu: Kubowola Kwa America ndi Kuwonongeka kwa Iraq.