Ndi Robert Alvarez, September 11, 2017, Bulletin ya Atomic Scientists.
Zinalembedwanso December 1, 2017
Yakwana nthawi yoti tipeze njira yothetsera nkhondo yaku Korea yazaka 67. Pomwe chiwopsezo chakumenya nkhondo chikuwonekera, anthu aku America sakudziwa kwenikweni zakumenya nkhondo yayitali kwambiri ku America yomwe sinathetsedwe komanso imodzi mwamagazi ambiri padziko lapansi. Pangano la 1953 lankhondo lokhazikitsidwa ndi Purezidenti Eisenhower - kuyimitsa "apolisi" azaka zitatu zomwe zidapangitsa kufa kwa asirikali ndi anthu wamba mamiliyoni awiri kapena anayi - layiwalika kale. Atakakamizidwa ndi atsogoleri ankhondo aku North Korea, United States, South Korea, ndi mabungwe awo a United Nations kuti athetse kumenya nkhondo, gulu lankhondo silinatsatiridwe konse ndi mgwirizano wamtendere wothana ndi mkangano woyamba wa Cold War.
Wogwira ntchito ku State State adandikumbutsa zakusakhazikika kumeneku ndisanapite kumalo a zida za nyukiliya a Youngbyon mu Novembala 1994 kuti ndikathandizire kupeza mafuta okhala ndi ma plutonium ngati gawo limodzi la Mgwirizano pakati pa United States ndi North Korea. Ndidanenanso kuti titenge malo otenthetsera malo kumalo osungira mafuta omwe agwiritsidwa ntchito, kuti tipeze kutentha kwa anthu aku North Korea omwe azigwira ntchito nthawi yozizira kuyika ndodo zamagetsi zamagetsi zamagetsi zonyamula mafuta kwambiri, momwe atha kugonjera International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA) amateteza. Wogwira ntchito ku State State adakwiya. Ngakhale zaka 40 nkhondo itatha, tinaletsedwa kupereka chitonthozo chilichonse kwa adani, mosasamala kanthu za kuzizira koopsa komwe kunasokoneza ntchito yawo — ndi yathu —.
Momwe Zivomerezera Zomwe zidakhalira Zagwa. M'ngululu ndi chilimwe cha 1994, United States inali paulendo wogundana ndi North Korea chifukwa chofuna kupanga plutonium kuti ipange zida zake zanyukiliya zoyambirira. Tithokoze kwakukulu pazokambirana za Purezidenti wakale Jimmy Carter, yemwe adakumana pamasomaso ndi Kim Il Sung, yemwe adayambitsa Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), dziko lapansi lidachoka pamphepete. Mwa kuyesayesa uku kunatulutsa mfundo zazikuluzikulu za Mgwirizanowu, womwe udasainidwa pa Okutobala 12, 1994. Bungweli ndi mgwirizano wokha waboma pakati pa United States ndi North Korea.
Mgwirizanowu unali mgwirizano wosagwirizana womwe udatsegulira khomo kumapeto kwa nkhondo yaku Korea. North Korea idavomereza kuyimitsa pulogalamu yake yopanga ma plutonium posinthana ndi mafuta ochulukirapo, mgwirizano wachuma, komanso kumanga kwa magetsi awiri amakono opangira magetsi a nyukiliya. Pambuyo pake, zida za nyukiliya zomwe zidalipo ku North Korea zidayenera kuchotsedwa ndipo mafuta amagetsi adachotsedwa mdzikolo. South Korea idathandizira kwambiri pokonzekera ntchito yomanga makina awiriwa. Munthawi yachiwiri yakutsogolo, oyang'anira a Clinton anali akuyesetsa kukhazikitsa ubale wabwino kwambiri ndi North. Mlangizi wa Purezidenti Wendy Sherman adalongosola mgwirizano ndi North Korea kuti athetse mivi yake yapakatikati komanso yayitali ngati "yoyandikira kwambiri" zisanachitike zokambirana ndi zisankho za 2000.
Koma chimango chidatsutsidwa kwambiri ndi ma Republican ambiri, ndipo GOP itayamba kulamulira Congress mu 1995, idaponya zotsekereza panjira, kusokoneza mafuta otumiza mafuta ku North Korea komanso kupeza zinthu zonyamula ma plutonium komweko. George W. Bush atasankhidwa kukhala purezidenti, zoyesayesa za Clinton zidasinthidwa ndikuwonetsa ndondomeko yosintha kwa maboma. M'mawu ake a State of the Union mu Januware 2002, a Bush adalengeza North Korea kukhala membala wa "zoyipa zoyipa." Mu Seputembala, Chitsamba chikutchulidwa mwachindunji ku North Korea mu ndondomeko ya chitetezo chadziko chomwe chimafuna kuti ziwonongeke zotsutsana ndi mayiko omwe akukonzekera zida zowonongeka kwakukulu.
Izi zidakhazikitsa msonkhano wamayiko awiri mu Okutobala 2002, pomwe Secretary Secretary wa State James Kelly adalamula kuti North Korea ithetse pulogalamu yachinsinsi yopititsa patsogolo uranium kapena ikumane ndi zovuta. Ngakhale kuti a Bush Administration adatsimikiza kuti pulogalamu yolemereza sinadziwulidwe, idadziwika kwa anthu onse - ku Congress ndi atolankhani - pofika 1999. North Korea idatsata mosamalitsa Mgwirizanowu, kuzizira kwa plutonium kwa zaka zisanu ndi zitatu. Njira zodzitetezera ku uranium zidasinthidwa mgwirizano mpaka kupititsa patsogolo kwakukulu pakukonzekera kwa madzi otentha; koma ngati kuchedwa kumeneko kunkawoneka koopsa, mgwirizano ukanasinthidwa. Sullivan atangofika pachimake, North Korea inathetsa pulogalamu yopezera nyukiliya yomwe inagwiritsidwa ntchito ndipo inayamba kupatukana ndi plutonium ndi kupanga zida za nyukiliya, zomwe zimayambitsa mavuto aakulu, monga momwe bungwe la Bush linayandikira kuti liwononge Iraq.
Pamapeto pake, kayendetsedwe ka Bush Bush pofuna kuthetsa vutoli pa dongosolo la nyukiliya la North Korea -ndiyi-Party-Six Talks-inalephera, makamaka chifukwa cha thandizo la United States la kusintha kwa boma kumpoto kwa Korea ndi kupempha "zonse" pofuna kuthetsa kwathunthu mapulogalamu a nyukiliya kumpoto asanayambe kukambirana kwakukulu. Komanso, ndi chisankho cha pulezidenti wa US pafupi, a North Korea anayenera kukumbukira momwe pulasitikiyo idakumbidwira mwakhama pamsonkhano wotsatizana pambuyo pa chisankho cha 2000.
Panthawi imene Pulezidenti Obama adakhazikitsa udindo, North Korea inali njira yopita zida za nyukiliya ndipo inali ikuyandikira miyeso ya intercontinental ballistic. Pofotokozedwa kuti "kuleza mtima," malamulo a Obama adakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kayendetsedwe ka chitukuko cha nyukiliya ndi misisi, makamaka monga Kim Jong-un, mdzukulu wa maziko, adakwera ku mphamvu. Pansi pa ulamuliro wa Obama, chilango chachuma ndi kuwonjezereka kwa nthawi yolimbana ndi nkhondo kunagwirizanitsidwa ndi kuwonjezereka kwa North Korea. Tsopano, pansi pa kayendetsedwe ka Trump, machitidwe ovomerezeka a usilikali a United States, South Korea ndi Japan-omwe akufuna kuti asonyeze "moto ndi ukali" zomwe zingathe kuwononga ulamuliro wa DPRK-zikuwoneka kuti zangoyenda mofulumira kumene North Korea yadutsa kuyeza kuyesa kwake kwachisawawa ndi kutayika kwa zida za nyukiliya zamphamvu kwambiri.
Kuchita ndi zida za nyukiliya ku North Korea. Nkhumba za DPRK zokhala ndi zida za nyukiliya zinabzalidwa pamene United States inadula mgwirizano wa 1953 Armistice Agreement. Kuyambira mu 1957, a US anaphwanya mgwirizano wapadera wa mgwirizano (ndime 13d), yomwe inaletsa kuyambika kwa zida zambiri zowononga ku peninsula ya Korea, potsirizira pake akugwiritsa ntchito zikwi zambiri za zida za nyukiliya ku South Korea, kuphatikiza zipolopolo zankhondo za atomiki, zida zankhondo zoponyera mfuti ndi mabomba okoka, mphamvu za atomiki za "bazooka" ndi zida zowonongera (20 kiloton "back-pack" nukes). Mu 1991, Purezidenti wakale a George HW Bush adachotsa ma nukes onse. M'zaka 34 zapitazi, komabe, United States idatulutsa zida zanyukiliya-pakati pa nthambi zake zankhondo ku Peninsula yaku Korea! Ntchito yayikulu yakum'mwera kwa nyukiliya idalimbikitsa kwambiri North Korea kuti ipititse patsogolo zida zankhondo zodziwika bwino zomwe zitha kuwononga Seoul.
Tsopano, atsogoleri ena a usilikali ku South Korea akuyitanitsa kubwezeretsa zida za nyukiliya za ku United States m'dzikoli, zomwe sizidzangowonjezera mavuto okhudzana ndi nyukiliya ya North Korea. Kupezeka kwa zida za nyukiliya za ku America sikulepheretsa chiwawa cha North Korea mu 1960s ndi 1970s, nthawi yomwe imadziwika kuti "Nkhondo yachiwiri ya ku Korea," pamene anthu oposa 1,000 South Korea ndi asilikali a ku America a 75 anaphedwa. Zina mwazochitika, asilikali a North Korea adagonjetsa Pueblo, chikepe cha US Naval intelligence, ku 1968, kupha anthu ogwira ntchito ndi kulanda ena 82. Sitimayo sinabwererenso.
North Korea yakhala ikukakamira zokambirana zamayiko awiri zomwe zingayambitse mgwirizano wosagwirizana ndi United States. Boma la US lakhala likukana mapempho awo amgwirizano wamtendere chifukwa akuwoneka kuti ndi njira zachinyengo zochepetsera kukhalapo kwa asitikali aku US ku South Korea, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kumpoto kukhale koopsa. Jackson Posthl wa Washington Post adanenanso izi posachedwa, akutsimikizira izi North Korea sichifuna kwenikweni kuthetsa mtendere. Ponena za mawu a Bungwe la Pulezidenti wa ku North Korea, Kim In Ryong, adanena mawu akuti dziko lake "silidzaikapo mphamvu ya nyukiliya potsutsana," adatero Ryong. chofunika kwambiri: "Malinga ngati US akupitiriza kuopseza."
Pazaka 15 zapitazi, zochitika zankhondo pokonzekera nkhondo ndi North Korea zawonjezeka komanso kutalika. Posachedwa, Trevor Noah, wolandila owonera a Comedy Central The Daily Show, adafunsa Christopher Hill, mtsogoleri wamkulu wa US ku Msonkhano wachisanu ndi chimodzi pazaka za George W. Bush, za zochitika za usilikali; Hill inalengeza izo "Sitinakonzekerepo kuti timenyane" North Korea. Chilumbachi chinali chosadziwika bwino kapena chosiyana. The Washington Post adanena kuti kuchita masewera olimbitsa nkhondo ku March 2016 kunakhazikitsidwa pa dongosolo, kuvomerezedwa ndi United States ndi South Korea, zomwe zikuphatikizapo "ntchito zankhondo zam'tsogolo" ndi "'kugonjetsa masewera olimbitsa thupi' ndi magulu apadera omwe akuwatsogolera utsogoleri wa North." Washington Post nkhani, katswiri wa usilikali wa ku United States sanatsutsane ndi ndondomekoyi koma adati ali ndi mwayi wotsika kwambiri.
Mosasamala kanthu kuti ziwonekere bwanji kuti zitha kukhazikitsidwa, zochitika zapakati pa nthawi za nkhondo zapakati pa nkhondo zimathandiza kupititsa patsogolo ndipo mwina kulimbitsa kukhwima koopsa ndi utsogoleri wa North Korea wa anthu ake, omwe amakhala mu mantha nthawi zonse nkhondo yatsala pang'ono. Titafika ku North Korea, tinaona momwe boma linasinthira nzika zake ndikukumbutsa za kuphedwa kumene kunayambitsidwa ndi ndege ya US yomwe inagwa mu nthawi ya nkhondo. Pogwiritsa ntchito 1953, mabomba a ku US anawononga pafupifupi nyumba zonse ku North Korea. Dean Rusk, Mlembi wa boma pa nthawi ya Kennedy ndi Johnson, adati patapita zaka zingapo mabomba adagwetsedwa pa "chirichonse chomwe chinkayenda ku North Korea, njerwa iliyonse ili pamwamba pa mzake." Kwa zaka zambiri, boma la North Korea lakonza Njira yaikulu yamagalimoto a pansi pa nthaka amagwiritsidwa ntchito mobwerezabwereza kutetezera boma.
Mwachedwa kwambiri kuyembekezera kuti DPRK ituluke m'manja. Mlathowo udawonongedwa pomwe Mgwirizanowu udatayidwa chifukwa cholephera kusintha kwaulamuliro, zomwe sizinangopereka chilimbikitso champhamvu komanso nthawi yambiri kuti DPRK ipange zida zanyukiliya. Secretary of State Tillerson posachedwapa ananena kuti "sitikufuna kuti boma lisinthe, sitikufuna kugwa kwa boma." Tsoka ilo, Tillerson amizidwa m'madzi ndi kufotokozera ma tweets akumenyera nkhondo a Purezidenti Trump komanso kusokosera kwa omwe kale anali asitikali ndi akazitape.
Pamapeto pake, kuthetsa mtendere kwa nyukiliya ya kumpoto kwa Korea kudzaphatikizana bwino ndi zizindikiro za chikhulupiriro chabwino ndi mbali zonse ziwiri, monga kuchepetsa kapena kuchepetsa zochitika za usilikali ndi United States, South Korea, ndi Japan, ndipo kusemphana ndi zida za nyukiliya ndi kuyesedwa kwa maboma a DPRK. Zotsatira zoterezi zidzatsutsa kwambiri kuchokera kwa akuluakulu a chitetezo ku United States omwe amakhulupirira kuti mphamvu zamagulu ndi zilango ndizo zokhazo zomwe zingagwirizane ndi ulamuliro wa North Korea. Koma Makhalidwe Ovomerezeka ndi kugwa kwake amapereka phunziro lofunika kwambiri potsata zofuna kusintha kwa boma. Tsopano, mgwirizano wamagetsi a zida za nyukiliya ukhoza kukhala njira yokhayo yobweretsera mutu wautali wa Cold War pamtendere. N'zovuta kumunyengerera munthu kuti agwire ntchito, ngati akutsimikiza kuti mukumupha, ziribe kanthu zomwe akuchita.
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Katswiri wamaphunziro ku Institute for Policy Study, a Robert Alvarez anali mlangizi wamkulu wa mfundo kwa mlembi wa department ya Energy komanso wachiwiri kwa mlembi wothandizira zachitetezo cha dziko ndi chilengedwe kuyambira 1993 mpaka 1999. Munthawi imeneyi, adatsogolera magulu ku North Korea kukhazikitsa ulamuliro za zida za zida za nyukiliya. Anagwirizananso mapulani azanyukiliya a department ya Energy department ndikukhazikitsa pulogalamu yoyang'anira chuma yoyamba. Asanalowe nawo department of Energy, Alvarez adagwira ntchito zaka zisanu ngati wofufuza wamkulu ku US Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, motsogozedwa ndi Sen. John Glenn, komanso m'modzi mwa akatswiri aku Senate pa zida zanyukiliya ku US. Mu 1975, Alvarez adathandizira kukhazikitsa ndi kuwongolera Environmental Policy Institute, bungwe lolemekezeka ladziko lonse. Adathandizanso kukonza mlandu wabwino m'malo mwa banja la Karen Silkwood, wogwira ntchito ku zida za nyukiliya komanso wogwira ntchito mwamgwirizano yemwe adaphedwa modzidzimutsa ku 1974. Alvarez adasindikiza nkhani mu Science, ndi Bulletin ya Atomic Asayansi, Kukambitsirana kwa Technologyndipo The Washington Post. Iye wakhala akuwonetsedwa mu mapulogalamu a pa televizioni monga NOVA ndi 60 Mphindi.
