Ndi Ed O'Rourke
Pa Seputembala 26, 1983, dziko linali chosankha cha munthu m'modzi kutali ndi nkhondo yanyukiliya. Mkulu wa asilikaliyo anayenera kuchita zinthu mosamvera n'cholinga choti asiye kuchita zinthu mwangozi. Mkangano unali waukulu, patadutsa milungu itatu asilikali a Soviet atawombera ndege yonyamula anthu, ndege ya Korea Air Lines 007, kupha anthu onse 269. Purezidenti Reagan anatcha Soviet Union "ufumu wa zoipa."
Purezidenti Reagan adakweza mpikisano wa zida ndipo anali kutsatira Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars).
NATO inali ikuyamba masewera ankhondo a Able Archer 83 omwe anali kuyeserera koyenera kuti ayambe kumenya koyamba. A KGB ankaona kuti kuchita zimenezi n’kotheka pokonzekera zinthu zenizeni.
Pa September 26, 1983, Lieutenant Air Defense Lieutenant Coronel Stanislav Petrov anali woyang'anira ntchito ku Soviet Air Defense Command Center. Udindo wake udaphatikizapo kuyang'anira njira yochenjeza za satellite komanso kudziwitsa akuluakulu ake ataona kuti Soviet Union yaphulitsidwa ndi mizinga.
Patangopita pakati pausiku, makompyutawo adawonetsa kuti mzinga wa intercontinental ballistic unayambika kuchokera ku US ndikupita ku Soviet Union. Petrov adawona izi ngati cholakwika pakompyuta popeza kugunda koyamba kulikonse kungaphatikizepo mivi mazana angapo, osati imodzi yokha. Maakaunti amasiyana ngati adalumikizana ndi akuluakulu ake. Pambuyo pake, makompyutawo adazindikiranso zida zina zinayi zoponyedwa kuchokera ku US.
Akadadziwitsa akuluakulu ake, ndizotheka kuti akuluakuluwo akadalamula kuti dziko la US likhazikitsidwe kwambiri. Zinali zothekanso, kuti monga Boris Yeltsin adaganiza muzochitika zofanana, kukwera zinthu mpaka patakhala umboni wokwanira wosonyeza zomwe zikuchitika.
Dongosolo la makompyuta linali litasokonekera. Panali kusintha kwachilendo kwa kuwala kwa dzuwa pamitambo yokwera kwambiri komanso maulendo a satellites a Molniya. Akatswiri akonza cholakwikacho podutsana ndi satelayiti ya geostationary.
Akuluakulu a boma la Soviet Union anali pamavuto, ndipo nthawi ina ankamutamanda kenako n’kumudzudzula. Mu dongosolo lililonse, makamaka Soviet Union, mumayamba kupereka mphoto kwa anthu chifukwa chosamvera malamulo? Anapatsidwa ntchito yosavutikira kwambiri, anapuma pantchito msangamsanga ndipo anadwala matenda amanjenje.
Pali chisokonezo pa zimene zinachitika pa September 23, 1983. Malingaliro anga ndi akuti sanadziŵitse mabwana ake. Kupanda kutero, n’chifukwa chiyani angalandire ntchito yosamvera n’kupita kukapuma msanga?
Palibe bungwe limodzi lazanzeru lomwe linkadziwa kuti dziko layandikira bwanji kunkhondo yanyukiliya. Zinali m'zaka za m'ma 1990 pamene Coronel General Yury Votintsev, wamkulu wa Soviet Air Defense Missile Defense Unit, adasindikiza zolemba zake zomwe dziko linaphunzira za zomwe zinachitika.
Mmodzi amanjenjemera kuganiza zomwe zikanachitika Boris Yeltsin anali wolamulira komanso woledzera. Purezidenti waku US amatha kumva zokakamiza zosiyanasiyana kuti awombere kaye ndikuyankha mafunso pambuyo pake, ngati kuti pangakhale wina wamoyo woti afunse. Purezidenti Richard Nixon akufika kumapeto panthawi yofufuza za Watergate, Al Haig adalamula Dipatimenti ya Chitetezo kuti isayambe kugunda kwa nyukiliya pa lamulo la Richard Nixon pokhapokha (Al Haig) atavomereza lamulolo. Kapangidwe ka zida za nyukiliya kumapangitsa moyo padziko lapansi kukhala wovuta. Mlembi wakale wa chitetezo a Robert McNamera adawona kuti anthu akhala ndi mwayi osati anzeru ndi zida zanyukiliya.
Nkhondo ya zida za nyukiliya idzabweretsa mavuto ndi imfa zomwe sizinachitikepo kwa zamoyo zonse papulaneti lathu losalimba. Kusinthana kwakukulu kwa zida zanyukiliya pakati pa US ndi Russia kuyika matani 50 mpaka 150 miliyoni a utsi mu stratosphere, kutsekereza kuwala kwa dzuwa kugunda padziko lapansi kwa zaka zambiri. Kafukufuku wina akusonyeza kuti zida zanyukiliya zokwana 100 za Hiroshima zomwe zaphulika ku India ndi m’mizinda ya Pakistan zikhoza kutulutsa utsi wokwanira kuchititsa kuti nyengo isinthe.
Mutu wankhondo wodziwika bwino uli ndi zokolola za 2 megaton kapena matani mamiliyoni awiri a TNT, mphamvu zonse zophulika zomwe zidapangidwa panthawi ya Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse zomwe zitha kumasulidwa mumasekondi pang'ono m'dera la 30 mpaka 40 mamailosi. Kutentha kumafika pa madigiri seshasi mamiliyoni angapo, pafupifupi zimene zimapezeka pakati pa dzuŵa. Chiwombankhanga chachikulu chimatulutsa kutentha koopsa komanso kuyatsa moto woyambira mbali zonse. Moto zikwi zingapo ukhoza kupanga moto umodzi kapena mkuntho umodzi, wophimba mazana kapena mwina masauzande a mailosi.
Pamene mvula yamkuntho ikuwotcha mzinda, mphamvu zonse zomwe zidzatulutsidwe zidzakhala zazikulu nthawi 1,000 kuposa zomwe zinatulutsidwa mu kuphulika koyambirira. Mphepo yamkunthoyo idzatulutsa utsi wapoizoni, wotulutsa ma radio ndi fumbi kupha pafupifupi chamoyo chilichonse chomwe chilipo. Pafupifupi tsiku limodzi, utsi wa mkuntho wochokera ku zida za nyukiliya ukafika ku stratosphere ndi kutsekereza kuwala kwadzuwa kochuluka kugunda padziko lapansi, kuwononga ozone layer ndipo m’masiku oŵerengeka kuchepetsa kutentha kwapadziko lonse kukhala kozizira kwambiri. Kutentha kwa Ice Age kukanakhalabe kwa zaka zingapo.
Atsogoleri amphamvu kwambiri ndi olemera adatha kukhalabe kwakanthawi m'misasa yokhala ndi zida zokwanira. Ndili ndi lingaliro loti okhala m'malo obisalamo amatha kusokonezeka maganizo nthawi yayitali zinthu zisanathe ndipo amatembenukirana. Nikita Khrushchev ananenapo pambuyo pa nkhondo ya nyukiliya, kuti amoyo amachitira nsanje akufa. Udzu ndi mphemvu ziyenera kupulumuka nkhondo ya nyukiliya koma ndikuganiza kuti asayansi adaneneratu izi asanatengere kwambiri nyengo yozizira ya nyukiliya. Ndikuganiza kuti mphemvu ndi udzu zigwirizana ndi wina aliyense posachedwa. Sipadzakhala wopulumuka.
Kunena zowona, ndiyenera kunena kuti asayansi ena amaona kuti zochitika zanga za nyukiliya zimakhala zovuta kwambiri kuposa momwe mawerengedwe awo angasonyezere. Ena amaganiza kuti zingatheke kuchepetsa kapena kukhala ndi nkhondo ya nyukiliya itangoyamba. Carl Sagan akuti uku ndikulakalaka. Zoponya zikagunda, padzakhala kulephera kwa kulumikizana kapena kugwa, kusokonekera, mantha, kubwezera, kupsinjika nthawi yopangira zisankho komanso kulemedwa kwamalingaliro komwe mabwenzi ambiri ndi achibale amwalira. Sipadzakhala chotchinga. Coronel General Yuri Votintsev adawonetsa, osachepera mu 1983, Soviet Union idayankha kumodzi kokha, kuphulika kwakukulu kwa mizinga. Panalibe yankho lokonzekera lomaliza.
N’chifukwa chiyani dziko la United States ndi Soviet Union linapanga zida za nyukiliya pafupifupi masauzande ambiri kumbali iliyonse? Malinga ndi National Resources Defense Council’s Nuclear Weapons Databook Project, zida za nyukiliya za ku United States zinafika pachimake pa 32,193 mu 1966. Panali panthaŵi imeneyi pamene zida zapadziko lonse zinali ndi matani 10 a TNT kwa mwamuna, mkazi ndi mwana aliyense padziko lapansi. . Winston Churchill anatsutsa kuchulukitsitsa koteroko ponena kuti mfundo yokhayo inali kuona kuti zibwibwizo zidzakwera bwanji.
Chifukwa chiyani atsogoleri andale ndi ankhondo angapitilize kupanga, kuyesa ndikusintha zida izi mochuluka? Kwa ambiri, zida za nyukiliya zinali zida zambiri, zamphamvu kwambiri. Panalibe malingaliro okhudza kuchulukitsa. Monga momwe dziko lomwe lili ndi akasinja ambiri, ndege, asitikali ndi zombo zinali ndi mwayi, dziko lomwe lili ndi zida zanyukiliya zambiri linali ndi mwayi waukulu wopambana. Kwa zida wamba, panali kuthekera kopewa kupha anthu wamba. Ndi zida za nyukiliya, panalibe. Asilikali adanyoza nyengo yozizira ya nyukiliya pomwe Carl Sagan ndi asayansi ena adapereka lingaliro loyambalo.
Mphamvu yoyendetsa inali yolepheretsa yotchedwa Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ndipo inali yopenga. Ngati US ndi Soviet Union zinali ndi zida zokwanira, zomwazika mwanzeru m'malo owumitsidwa kapena m'sitima zapamadzi, mbali iliyonse ikadatha kuyambitsa zida zankhondo zokwanira kuti ziwononge chipani choukiracho. Izi zinali zoopsa zomwe zikutanthauza kuti palibe wamkulu yemwe angayambe nkhondo mopanda malamulo andale, sipadzakhala zizindikiro zabodza pamakompyuta kapena pazithunzi za radar, kuti atsogoleri andale ndi ankhondo nthawi zonse amakhala anthu oganiza bwino komanso kuti nkhondo ya nyukiliya ikhoza kukhalapo pambuyo pake. kumenya koyamba. Izi zimanyalanyaza lamulo lodziwika bwino la Murphy: "Palibe chophweka monga momwe chimawonekera. Chilichonse chimatenga nthawi yayitali kuposa momwe mumayembekezera. Ngati chilichonse chingalephere, chitha nthawi yoyipa kwambiri. ”
Nyuzipepala ya Nuclear Age Peace Foundation inapanga Chilengezo cha Santa Barbara chofotokoza mavuto akuluakulu oletsa nyukiliya:
- Mphamvu zake zoteteza ndizopeka zowopsa. Kuwopseza kapena kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya sikumapereka chitetezo ku kuwukira.
- Zimatengera atsogoleri oganiza bwino, koma patha kukhala atsogoleri opanda nzeru kapena opupuluma kumbali iliyonse ya mkangano.
- Kuopseza kapena kupha anthu ambiri ndi zida za nyukiliya ndizosaloledwa komanso ndi mlandu. Imaphwanya malamulo ofunikira a malamulo apakhomo ndi akunja, ndikuwopseza kupha anthu osalakwa.
- Ndi zachiwerewere kwambiri pazifukwa zomwezo ndizosaloledwa: zimawopseza imfa ndi chiwonongeko chopanda tsankho komanso mopanda malire.
- Imapatutsa anthu ndi chuma chomwe chikufunika kwambiri kuti chikwaniritse zosowa za anthu padziko lonse lapansi. Padziko lonse, pafupifupi $100 biliyoni amagwiritsidwa ntchito chaka chilichonse pankhondo zanyukiliya.
- Ilibe mphamvu motsutsana ndi anthu omwe si a boma, omwe samalamulira dera kapena anthu.
- Ndiwowopsa pakuwukiridwa kwa cyber, kuwononga, komanso zolakwika zamunthu kapena zaukadaulo, zomwe zitha kudzetsa nyukiliya.
- Zimapereka chitsanzo kwa mayiko owonjezera kuti azitsatira zida za nyukiliya kuti azitha kuletsa zida zawozawo.
Ena anayamba kuda nkhawa kuti kupanga ndi kuyesa zida za nyukiliya kunali kuopseza kwambiri chitukuko. Pa April 16, 1960, anthu pafupifupi 60,000 mpaka 100,000 anasonkhana pa Trafalgar Square kuti “aletse bomba.” Chiwonetserochi chinali chachikulu kwambiri ku London mpaka nthawi imeneyo m'zaka za m'ma XNUMX. Panali kukhudzidwa kwa kuipitsidwa kwa radioactive pakugwa kwa mayeso a nyukiliya.
Mu 1963, United States ndi Soviet Union adagwirizana kuti achite nawo Pangano Loletsa Mayeso.
Pangano la Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty linayamba kugwira ntchito pa March 5, 1970. Pali anthu 189 amene anasaina panganoli lero. Poganizira za mayiko 20 mpaka 40 okhala ndi zida za nyukiliya pofika 1990, mayiko okhala ndi zidazo adalonjeza kuti athetsa zidazo kuti achotse chilimbikitso choti mayiko ambiri azipanga zida zodzitetezera. Mayiko omwe ali ndi luso la nyukiliya adalonjeza kugawana luso la nyukiliya ndi zipangizo ndi mayiko omwe asayina nawo kuti apange mapulogalamu a mphamvu za nyukiliya wamba.
Panalibe nthawi yothetsa zida m'panganoli. Kodi mayiko adzaleka mpaka liti kupanga kapena kugula zida za nyukiliya pamene mayiko ena adakali nazo? Zachidziwikire, US ndi ogwirizana nawo akadakhala osamala kwambiri ndi Saddam Hussein ndi Muammar Omar Gaddafi akadakhala kuti ali ndi zida zanyukiliya m'malo awo ankhondo. Phunziro kwa mayiko ena ndikumanga mwachangu komanso mwakachetechete kuti apewe kukankhidwa kapena kuwukiridwa.
Osati a hippies omwe amasuta mphika okha, komanso akuluakulu a asilikali ndi andale omwe amalimbikitsa kuti zida zonse za nyukiliya zichotsedwe. Pa Disembala 5, 1996, akazembe ndi akazembe 58 ochokera m’maiko 17 anapereka Chikalata cha Generals and Admirals of the World Against Nuclear Weapons. M'munsimu muli zolemba:
"Ife, akatswiri ankhondo, omwe tapereka miyoyo yathu ku chitetezo cha dziko la mayiko athu ndi anthu athu, tili otsimikiza kuti zida za nyukiliya zikupitirizabe kukhalapo m'malo osungiramo zida za nyukiliya, komanso kuopseza komwe kulipo kuti apeze zida izi ndi ena. , zikuika chiwopsezo ku mtendere ndi chitetezo padziko lonse lapansi komanso ku chitetezo ndi kupulumuka kwa anthu omwe tadzipereka kuwateteza. "
"Ndikutsimikiza kwathu kuti zotsatirazi ndizofunikira kwambiri ndipo ziyenera kuchitika tsopano:
- Choyamba, zida zanyukiliya zomwe zasungidwa pano ndi zomwe zakonzedwa ndi zazikulu kwambiri ndipo ziyenera kuchepetsedwa kwambiri;
- Chachiwiri, zida zotsalira za zida za nyukiliya ziyenera kukhala tcheru pang'onopang'ono komanso mowonekera, ndipo kukonzekera kwawo kuchepetsedwa kwambiri m'mayiko omwe ali ndi zida za nyukiliya komanso m'mayiko ena;
- Chachitatu, mfundo zanyukiliya zanthawi yayitali zapadziko lonse lapansi ziyenera kuzikidwa pa mfundo yomwe yalengezedwa yothetsa zida za nyukiliya mosalekeza, kotheratu komanso kosasinthika.”
Gulu lina lapadziko lonse (lotchedwa Canberra Commission) lomwe boma la Australia linasonkhanitsa mu 1997 linati: “Lingaliro lakuti zida za nyukiliya zisungidwe kosatha ndipo sizidzagwiritsiridwa ntchito mwangozi kapena mwachisankho—zimalephera kudalirika.”
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M’nyuzipepala ya Wall Street Journal ya January 4, 2007, amene kale anali Alembi a Boma a George P. Schultz, William J. Perry, Henry Kissinger ndi amene anali wapampando wa Senate Armed Forces, Sam Nunn anavomereza “kukhazikitsa cholinga cha dziko lopanda zida za nyukiliya.” Iwo anagwira mawu pempho la pulezidenti wakale Ronald Reagan la kuthetsa zida zonse za nyukiliya zimene anaziwona kukhala “zopanda nzeru kotheratu, zankhanza kotheratu, zachabechabe koma kupha, mwinamwake zowononga moyo padziko lapansi ndi chitukuko.”
Njira yapakatikati yothetsa ndikuchotsa zida zonse zanyukiliya pazida zoyambitsa tsitsi (zokonzeka kuyambitsa ndi chidziwitso cha mphindi 15). Izi zidzapereka nthawi kwa atsogoleri ankhondo ndi andale kuti awone zomwe akuwopseza kapena zomwe zikuwopseza zenizeni. Dziko linafika pafupi ndi chiwonongeko cha nyukiliya osati pa September 23, 1983 monga momwe tafotokozera kale komanso pa January 25, 1995 pamene asayansi a ku Norway ndi anzake a ku America anatulutsa satelayiti yopangidwa kuti iphunzire za Kuwala kwa Kumpoto. Ngakhale kuti boma la Norway linali litadziwitsa akuluakulu a boma la Soviet Union, si onse amene anamva. Kwa akatswiri a radar aku Russia, roketiyo inali ndi mbiri yofanana ndi mizinga ya Titan yomwe imatha kuchititsa khungu chitetezo cha radar cha Russia pophulitsa zida zanyukiliya kumtunda. Anthu aku Russia adayambitsa "mpira wa nyukiliya," chikwama chokhala ndi zinsinsi zofunika kuyitanitsa kuukira kwa mizinga. Purezidenti Yeltsin adabwera pasanathe mphindi zitatu atalamula kuti awononge zida zake zanyukiliya.
Mgwirizano wapadziko lonse wokambirana kuti uike zida zonse za nyukiliya pa maola anayi kapena maola a 24 ungapereke nthawi yoganizira zosankha, kuyesa deta ndikupewa nkhondo. Poyamba, nthawi yochenjeza izi ingawoneke ngati yochuluka. Kumbukirani kuti sitima zapamadzi zonyamula zida zonyamula zida zankhondo zili ndi zida zokwanira kuti zitha kuzunguliza dziko kangapo ngakhale zitakhala zosakayikitsa kuti mizinga yonse yochokera pamtunda idatulutsidwa.
Popeza kuti mapaundi 8 okha a zida za plutonium ndizofunikira kuti apange bomba la atomu, kuthetsa mphamvu za nyukiliya. Popeza kuti padziko lonse lapansi amapangidwa chaka chilichonse ndi matani 1,500, zigawenga zomwe zingakhalepo zili ndi njira zambiri zomwe mungasankhe. Kuyika ndalama pazamafuta ena kudzatipulumutsa ku kutentha kwa dziko ndikutseka zigawenga kupanga zida za nyukiliya.
Kuti apulumuke, anthu ayenera kuyesetsa kwambiri pakupanga mtendere, ufulu wa anthu komanso pulogalamu yapadziko lonse yolimbana ndi umphawi. Anthu othandiza anthu akhala akulimbikitsa zinthu zimenezi kwa zaka zambiri. Popeza zida za nyukiliya ndizokwera mtengo kuzisamalira, kuzichotsa kudzamasula zida zosinthira moyo padziko lapansi ndikusiya kusewera roulette yaku Russia.
Kuletsa bomba m'zaka za m'ma 1960 chinali chinthu chomwe chimalimbikitsidwa ndi mzere wakumanzere. Tsopano tili ndi chowerengera chamagazi ozizira ngati Henry Kissinger akuyitanitsa dziko lopanda zida za nyukiliya. Pano pali wina amene akanatha kulemba Kalonga anali kukhala m'zaka za zana la khumi ndi zisanu ndi chimodzi.
Pakadali pano mabungwe ankhondo akuyenera kudziphunzitsa kuti aletse zida za nyukiliya pakakhala kuphulika kosaloledwa kapena mwangozi kapena zigawenga. Anthu sangalole kuti tsoka limodzi ligwe n’kukhala tsoka limene lingathetse chitukuko.
Chodabwitsa, pali chiyembekezo china kuchokera ku Republican Party. Amakonda kuchepetsa bajeti. Pamene Richard Cheney anali Mlembi wa Chitetezo, adachotsa zida zambiri zankhondo ku US. Ronald Reagan ankafuna kuthetsa zida za nyukiliya. Pangano la Kellogg-Briand lomwe linafuna kuthetsa nkhondo linakwaniritsidwa pamene Calvin Coolidge anali pulezidenti.
Zokhazokha komanso phindu lochokera ku mgwirizano wa chitetezo ndi zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zida za nyukiliya zikhalepo.
Zofalitsa zathu, mabungwe andale ndi ankhondo akuyenera kuchitapo kanthu kuti abweretse dziko lamtendere. Izi zingafune kuwonekera poyera ndi mgwirizano popewa chinsinsi, mpikisano ndi bizinesi monga mwanthawi zonse. Anthu ayenera kuthetsa nkhondo yosatha imeneyi mkomberowo usanatithe.
Popeza US inali ndi zida za nyukiliya za 11,000, Purezidenti Obama atha kulamula kuti agwetse 10,000 mkati mwa mwezi umodzi kuti abwere pafupi ndi maloto a Purezidenti Reagan ndi anthu.
Ed O'Rourke ndi wokhala ku Houston. Panopa amakhala ku Medellin, Colombia.
Kochokera Kwakukulu:
Bright Star Sound. "Stanislav Petrov - World Hero. http://www.brightstarsound.com/
Generals and Admirals Statement of the World Against Nuclear Weapons, Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility website, http://www.ccnr.org/generals.html .
Webusayiti ya Mdima wa Nuclear (www.nucleardarkness.org) “Mdima wa nyukiliya,
Kusintha kwa Nyengo Padziko Lonse ndi Njala ya Nyukiliya: Zotsatira Zakupha za Nkhondo ya Nyukiliya."
Sagan, Carl. "Nyuclear Winter" http://www.cooperativeindividualism.org/sagan_nuclear_winter.html
Santa Barbara Statement, Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility website, http://www.ccnr.org/generals.html .
Wickersham, Bill. "Kusatetezeka kwa Nuclear Deterrence," Columbia Daily Tribune, September 1, 2011.
Wickersham, Bill. "Zida za Nyukiliya Zikadali Zoopsa," Columbia Daily Tribune, September 27, 2011. Bill Wickersham ndi pulofesa wothandizira maphunziro a mtendere komanso membala wa Missouri University Nuclear Disarmament Education Team (MUNDET).
Wickersham, Bill. ndi “Nuclear Deterrence a Futile Myth” Columbia Daily Tribune, March 1, 2011.
Bright Star Sound. "Stanislav Petrov - World Hero. http://www.brightstarsound.com/
