Kodi Mukufuna Nkhondo Yatsopano Yozizira? Mgwirizano wa AUKUS Utengera Dziko Lapansi Pamphepete

Asanachedwe, tifunikira kudzifunsa funso lofunika kwambiri: Kodi tikufunadi - ndikutanthauza moona-tikufuna Cold War yatsopano ndi China?

Chifukwa ndipamene pomwe oyang'anira a Biden amatiperekera. Ngati mukufuna umboni, onani mwezi watha kulengeza a "AUKUS" (Australia, United Kingdom, US) mgwirizano wankhondo ku Asia. Ndikhulupirireni, ndizowopsa kwambiri (komanso kusankhana mitundu) kuposa mgwirizano wankhondo wapamadzi woyendetsedwa ndi zida za nyukiliya komanso ma kerfuffle aku France omwe amawongolera nkhani zake. Poyang'ana kwambiri zomwe a French adakwiya kwambiri pakutaya mgwirizano wawo wogulitsa ma sub-nuclear subs ku Australia, ambiri atolankhani. anaphonya nkhani yayikulu kwambiri: kuti boma la US ndi ogwirizana nawo alengeza za Cold War yatsopano pokhazikitsa gulu lankhondo logwirizana ku East Asia lomwe limayang'ana ku China.

Sitinachedwe kusankha njira yamtendere. Tsoka ilo, mgwirizano wa Anglo onsewa umakhala pafupi kwambiri ndi kutsekereza dziko lapansi mkangano wotere womwe ukhoza kukhala nkhondo yotentha, ngakhale nyukiliya, pakati pa mayiko awiri olemera kwambiri, amphamvu kwambiri padziko lapansi.

Ngati mudakali achichepere kwambiri kuti musadutse mu Cold War yapachiyambi monga momwe ndidachitira, ganizirani kugona mukuopa kuti mwina simudzadzuka m'mawa, chifukwa cha nkhondo yankhondo pakati pa maulamuliro awiri apadziko lapansi (m'masiku amenewo, United States ndi Soviet Union). Tangoganizani kudutsa nzikopa za uclear fallout, kuchita"bakha ndi chivundikiro” kuyeserera pansi pa desiki yanu yakusukulu, ndikukhala ndi zikumbutso zina zanthawi zonse kuti, nthawi iliyonse, nkhondo yamphamvu kwambiri ikhoza kuthetsa moyo pa Dziko Lapansi.

Kodi tikufunadi tsogolo lamantha? Kodi tikufuna kuti United States ndi mdani wake awonongenso mabiliyoni osawerengeka madola pazogwiritsidwa ntchito yankhondo kwinaku mukunyalanyaza zofunikira zaumunthu, kuphatikiza chithandizo chamankhwala chapadziko lonse lapansi, maphunziro, chakudya, ndi nyumba, osanenapo za kulephera kuthana ndi vuto lomwe likubwera lomwe likubwera, kusintha kwanyengo?

Kumanga Asitikali aku US ku Asia

Pomwe Purezidenti Joe Biden, Prime Minister waku Australia a Scott Morrison, ndi Prime Minister waku Britain a Boris Johnson adalengeza kuti nawonso apambana.kugwaMgwirizano wotchedwa AUKUS, atolankhani ambiri amayang'ana kwambiri gawo laling'ono (ngakhale silofunika kwenikweni): kugulitsa kwa US zida zankhondo zoyendetsedwa ndi zida za nyukiliya kupita ku Australia komanso kuchotsedwa kwa dziko panthawi yomweyo mgwirizano wa 2016 wogula ndalama zoyendetsedwa ndi dizilo kuchokera France. Poyang'anizana ndi kutayika kwa mabiliyoni mabiliyoni a mayuro ndikutsekeredwa kunja kwa Anglo Alliance, nduna yakunja yaku France Jean-Yves Le Drian adatcha mgwirizanowu "kubaya kumbuyo.” Kwa nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri, France mwachidule adakumbukira kazembe wake wochokera ku Washington. Akuluakulu aku France ngakhale zimafika gala yomwe imayenera kukondwerera mgwirizano wa Franco-America kuyambira kugonjetsedwa kwawo kwa Great Britain mu Nkhondo Yachiweruzo.

Atadzidzimuka modabwitsa ndi chipwirikiti chamgwirizanowu (komanso zokambirana zachinsinsi zomwe zidatsogolera), olamulira a Biden adachitapo kanthu kuti akonzenso ubale, ndipo kazembe waku France posakhalitsa adabwerera ku Washington. Mu Seputembala ku United Nations, Purezidenti Biden analengeza analengeza kuti chinthu chomaliza chimene akufuna ndi “Nkhondo Yamawu yatsopano kapena dziko logawika m’magulu okhwima.” Koma n’zomvetsa chisoni kuti zimene akuluakulu a boma ake anachita zikusonyeza kuti palibe chimene chingachitike.

Tangoganizirani momwe oyang'anira mabungwe a Biden angamverere kulengeza kwa mgwirizano wa "VERUCH" (VEnezuela, RUssia, ndi CHina). Tangoganizani momwe angachitire ndi gulu lankhondo laku China komanso masauzande a asitikali aku China ku Venezuela. Tangoganizirani momwe amachitira ndi kutumizidwa nthawi zonse kwa mitundu yonse ya ndege zankhondo zaku China, sitima zapamadzi, ndi zombo zankhondo ku Venezuela, kuti akazitape achuluke, kukulitsa luso lankhondo la cyber, ndi "zochitika" zoyenera, komanso zochitika zankhondo zomwe zimakhudza masauzande a asitikali aku China ndi aku Russia osati chabe. ku Venezuela koma m'madzi a Atlantic pafupi ndi United States. Kodi gulu la Biden lingamve bwanji ndikulonjezedwa kwa zombo zankhondo zanyukiliya mdzikolo, kuphatikiza kusamutsa ukadaulo wanyukiliya ndi uranium yoyesa zida za nyukiliya?

Palibe mwa izi zomwe zachitika, koma izi zitha kukhala zofanana ndi Western Hemisphere ya "ntchito zazikulu zamphamvu zamphamvu” Akuluakulu aku US, Australia, ndi Britain angolengeza kumene ku East Asia. Akuluakulu a bungwe la AUKUS akusonyeza mosadabwitsa kuti mgwirizano wawo umapangitsa mbali zina za Asia kukhala “zosungika ndi zotetezeka,” pamene akupanga “tsogolo la mtendere [ndi] mwaŵi kwa anthu onse a m’deralo.” Ndizokayikitsa kuti atsogoleri aku US angawone gulu lankhondo lofananalo la China ku Venezuela kapena kwina kulikonse ku America ngati njira yofananira yachitetezo ndi mtendere.

Poyankha VERUCH, kuyitanitsa kuti asitikali ayankhe ndipo mgwirizano wofananira ungakhale wofulumira. Kodi sitiyenera kuyembekezera kuti atsogoleri aku China achitepo kanthu pakupanga kwa AUKUS ndi mtundu wawo womwewo? Pakadali pano, boma la China wolankhulira ananena kuti mabungwe a AUKUS "ayenera kuchotsa malingaliro awo pa Cold War" ndipo "asamange mabungwe oletsa kapena kuwononga zofuna za ena." Kuwonjezeka kwaposachedwa kwa asitikali aku China pakuchita masewera olimbitsa thupi pafupi ndi Taiwan atha kukhala yankho lina.

Atsogoleri aku China ali ndi zifukwa zambiri zokayikitsa cholinga chamtendere cha AUKUS chomwe adalengeza kuti asitikali aku US ali nacho kale Zisanu ndi ziwiri magulu ankhondo mkati Australia ndipo pafupifupi 300 yambiri kufalikira ku East Asia. Mosiyana ndi izi, China ilibe maziko amodzi ku Western Hemisphere kapena kulikonse pafupi ndi malire a United States. Onjezani chinthu chimodzi: m'zaka zapitazi za 20, ogwirizana ndi AUKUS ali ndi mbiri yoyambitsa nkhondo zowopsya ndikuchita nawo mikangano ina kuchokera ku Afghanistan, Iraq, ndi Libya kupita ku Yemen, Somalia, ndi Philippines, pakati pa malo ena. China cha nkhondo yatha kudutsa malire ake kunali ndi Vietnam kwa mwezi umodzi mu 1979. (Mwachidule, mikangano yakupha inachitika ndi Vietnam mu 1988 ndi India mu 2020.)

Diplomacy ya War Trumps

Pochotsa asitikali aku US ku Afghanistan, oyang'anira a Biden mwachidziwikire adayamba kusunthira dzikolo pamalingaliro ake a nkhondo zosatha mzaka za zana la makumi awiri ndi chimodzi. Purezidenti, komabe, akuwoneka kuti akufunitsitsa kukhala kumbali ya iwo aku Congress, mu mfundo zakunja za "Blob" komanso m'ma TV omwe ali. zoopsa kusefukira chiwopsezo cha asitikali aku China ndikuyitanitsa kuti asitikali ayankhe pakukula kwamphamvu padziko lonse lapansi. Kusagwira bwino kwa ubale ndi boma la France ndi chizindikiro chinanso chakuti, ngakhale adalonjeza kale, olamulira a Biden sakulabadira zokambirana ndikubwerera ku mfundo zakunja zomwe zimatanthauzidwa ndikukonzekera nkhondo, ndalama zankhondo zodumphadumpha, komanso kusamvana kwankhondo.

Poganizira zaka 20 zankhondo zoopsa zomwe zidatsatira kulengeza kwa olamulira a George W. Bush za "Nkhondo Yapadziko Lonse pa Zowopsa" komanso kuwukira kwawo ku Afghanistan mu 2001, kodi Washington ili ndi bizinesi yanji yomanga mgwirizano watsopano wankhondo ku Asia? Kodi boma la Biden siliyenera kukhala kumanga migwirizano odzipereka ku kulimbana ndi kutentha kwa dziko, miliri, njala, ndi zinthu zina zofunika mwamsanga za anthu? Kodi ndi bizinesi yanji yomwe atsogoleri atatu achizungu a mayiko atatu omwe ali ndi azungu ambiri amayesa kulamulira derali kudzera munkhondo?

Pomwe atsogoleri a ena Mayiko kumeneko alandira AUKUS, ogwirizana atatuwa adawonetsa tsankho, kubwereranso, chikhalidwe chautsamunda cha Anglo Alliance yawo popatula mayiko ena aku Asia ku kalabu yawo ya azungu. Kutchula dziko la China ngati chandamale chake komanso kuchuluka kwa mikangano ya Cold War-yofanana ndi iwo. kuyatsa tsankho layamba kale lodana ndi China komanso Asia ku United States komanso padziko lonse lapansi. Zolimbana, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimakhala zankhondo zotsutsana ndi China, zogwirizana ndi Purezidenti wakale a Donald Trump ndi ma Republican ena akumanja, akumbukiridwa kwambiri ndi oyang'anira a Biden komanso ma Democrat ena. "Zathandizira mwachindunji kukwera kwa ziwawa zotsutsana ndi Asia m'dziko lonselo," kulemba Akatswiri aku Asia Christine Ahn, Terry Park, ndi Kathleen Richards.

Gulu losakhazikika la "Quad" lomwe Washington adakhazikitsanso ku Asia, kuphatikizanso Australia komanso India ndi Japan, silibwinoko ndipo likukula kale. woganizira zankhondo mgwirizano wotsutsana ndi China. Mayiko ena m'derali awonetsa kuti "akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mpikisano wopitilira zida zankhondo ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu" kumeneko, monga Boma la Indonesia idatero ponena za mgwirizano wa sitima zapamadzi za nyukiliya. Zombozo zili chete ndipo n'zovuta kuzizindikira, ndi zida zoopsa zomwe zimapangidwira kugunda dziko lina popanda chenjezo. Kupeza kwawo ku Australia zoopsa mtsogolo ikukula mpikisano wamagulu am'magulu ndikubweretsa mafunso ovuta pazolinga za atsogoleri aku Australia ndi US.

Kupitilira Indonesia, anthu padziko lonse lapansi ayenera kukhala okhudzidwa kwambiri za kugulitsa kwa US kwa sitima zapamadzi zoyendetsedwa ndi nyukiliya. Mgwirizanowu umalepheretsa ntchito zoletsa kufalikira kwa zida za nyukiliya chifukwa zimalimbikitsa kuchulukitsa zaukadaulo wa zida za nyukiliya komanso zida za uranium zomwe zalemeretsa kwambiri zida zankhondo, zomwe US ​​kapena maboma aku Britain adzafunika kupereka ku Australia kuti ipatse ndalama. Mgwirizanowu umaperekanso chitsanzo chololeza mayiko ena omwe si a nyukiliya monga Japan kupititsa patsogolo zida za zida za nyukiliya poganiza kuti apanga zida zawo zanyukiliya. Kodi nchiyani chomwe chingaletse China kapena Russia kuti asagulitse sitima zapamadzi zoyendera zida zanyukiliya ku urani, Venezuela, kapena dziko lina lililonse?

Kodi Militarizing Asia ndi Ndani?

Ena anganene kuti United States iyenera kuthana ndi mphamvu zankhondo zaku China zomwe zikukula pafupipafupi lipenga ndi atolankhani aku US. Mowonjezereka, atolankhani, akatswiri, komanso andale pano akhala akunena zinthu zosocheretsa zankhondo yaku China. Zotere mantha kale kuwerengera ndalama zankhondo mdziko muno, kwinaku akuyambitsa mipikisano yamiyendo ndikuchulukana kowonjezeka, monga nthawi ya Cold War yoyambirira. Chokhumudwitsa, malinga ndi posachedwapa Chicago Council on Global Affairs kafukufuku, ambiri ku US tsopano akuwoneka kuti akukhulupirira - komabe molakwika - kuti gulu lankhondo laku China ndilofanana kapena lalikulu kuposa la United States. M'malo mwake, mphamvu zathu zankhondo zimaposa za China, zomwe sizophweka sizikuyerekeza kupita ku Soviet Union wakale.

Boma la China lalimbikitsadi mphamvu zake zankhondo mzaka zaposachedwa powonjezera ndalama, kupanga zida zapamwamba zankhondo, ndikupanga pafupifupi 15 ku 27 makamaka malo ang'onoang'ono ankhondo ndi ma radar pazilumba zopangidwa ndi anthu ku South China Sea. Komabe, US bajeti imakhalabe kuwirikiza katatu kukula kwa mnzake waku China (ndipo yokwera kuposa kutalika kwa Nkhondo Yozizira yoyambirira). Onjezani bajeti zankhondo za Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, ndi ena ogwirizana ndi NATO ngati Great Britain ndipo kusiyanaku kwadumpha mpaka zisanu ndi chimodzi. Mwa pafupifupi Zigulu za nkhondo za US 750 kunja, pafupifupi 300 ndi anabalalitsidwa kudutsa East Asia ndi Pacific ndipo ena ambiri ali kumadera ena a Asia. Asilikali aku China, kumbali ina, atero asanu ndi atatu mabwalo akunja (Zisanu ndi ziwiri kuzilumba za Spratley ku South China Sea ndi chimodzi ku Djibouti ku Africa), kuphatikiza ku Tibet. Ma US zida zanyukiliya ili ndi mitu yankhondo pafupifupi 5,800 poyerekeza ndi pafupifupi 320 mu zida zankhondo zaku China. Asitikali aku US ali ndi 68 sitima zapamadzi zoyendetsedwa ndi zida za nyukiliya, Asitikali aku China 10.

Mosiyana ndi zomwe ambiri adakhulupirira, China silovuta yankhondo ku United States. Palibe umboni boma lake liri ndi lingaliro lakutali kwambiri lowopseza, osasiyapo kuwukira, US yomwe. Kumbukirani, China yomaliza kumenya nkhondo kunja kwa malire ake mu 1979. "Mavuto enieni ochokera ku China ndi andale komanso azachuma, osati ankhondo," katswiri wa Pentagon a William Hartung watero analongosola bwino.

Kuyambira Purezidenti Za Obama "kupita ku Asia, "Asitikali aku US agwira ntchito yomanga malo atsopano, masewera ankhondo ankhanza, ndikuwonetsa magulu ankhondo mderali. Izi zalimbikitsa boma la China kuti lipange zida zawo zankhondo. Makamaka m'miyezi yaposachedwa, asitikali aku China achita zachiwawa zochitika pafupi ndi Taiwan, ngakhale ogulitsanso nkhondo ali kunamizira komanso kukokomeza ndi zoopsa bwanji. Popeza a Biden akufuna kukulitsa gulu lankhondo la omwe adamutsogolera ku Asia, palibe amene ayenera kudabwa ngati Beijing ilengeza za kuyankha kwankhondo ndikutsata mgwirizano wake ngati AUKUS. Ngati ndi choncho, dziko lidzakhalanso lotsekeredwa pankhondo yolimbana ndi Cold-War yomwe ingakhale yovuta kwambiri kuyithetsa.

Pokhapokha Washington ndi Beijing atachepetsa mikangano, olemba mbiri mtsogolo atha kuwona AUKUS ikugwirizana osati mgwirizano wamba wazaka za Cold-War, koma ndi 1882 Triple Alliance pakati pa Germany, Austria-Hungary, ndi Italy. Mgwirizanowu udalimbikitsa France, Britain, ndi Russia kuti ipange Triple Entente yawo, yomwe, limodzi ndi kukwera dziko ndi mpikisano wa geo-economic, anathandiza kutsogolera Europe kulowa mu Nkhondo Yadziko I (yomwe nayonso, inayambitsa Nkhondo Yadziko II, yomwe inayambitsa Nkhondo Yozizira).

Mukupewa Nkhondo Yatsopano?

Boma la Biden ndi United States ayenera kuchita bwino kuposa kubwezeretsanso njira zam'zaka za zana la khumi ndi chisanu ndi chinayi ndi nthawi ya Cold War. M'malo mopititsa patsogolo mpikisano wa zida zankhondo wokhala ndi maziko ochulukirapo komanso chitukuko cha zida ku Australia, akuluakulu aku US atha kuthandiza kuchepetsa mikangano pakati pa Taiwan ndi China, pomwe akuyesetsa kuthetsa mikangano yakumadera aku South China Sea. Pambuyo pa Nkhondo ya ku Afghanistan, Purezidenti Biden atha kudzipereka ku United States ku mfundo zakunja za zokambirana, kukhazikitsa mtendere, komanso kutsutsa nkhondo m'malo molimbana ndi mikangano yosatha komanso kukonzekera zomwezo. Miyezi yoyamba ya 18 ya AUKUS nthawi yofunsira imapereka mwayi wobwezera njira.

Kafukufuku waposachedwa akuwonetsa kuti kusuntha koteroko kungakhale kotchuka. Opitilira katatu ku US akufuna kuwona kuwonjezeka, m'malo mochepa, pakuchita nawo zokambirana padziko lonse lapansi, malinga ndi bungwe lopanda phindu. Maziko A Gulu a Eurasia. Ambiri omwe adafunsidwa akufunanso kuti asitikali achuluke akutumizidwa kunja. Kawiri kawiri akufuna kuchepetsa bajeti yankhondo monga momwe akufuna kuwonjezera.

Dziko sanapulumuke ndi Nkhondo Yozizira yoyambirira, chomwe chinali chilichonse koma kuzizira kwa anthu miyandamiyanda amene anakhala ndi moyo kapena kufa m’nkhondo zochirikiza zanthaŵiyo mu Afirika, Latin America, ndi Asia. Kodi tingaike pachiwopsezo china chofanana, nthawi ino ndi Russia komanso China? Kodi tikufuna mpikisano wamagulu omenyera nkhondo komanso omenyera nkhondo omwe angapatutse madola mamiliyoni ambiri kuti akwaniritse zosowa za anthu pomwe kudzaza nkhokwe opanga zida zankhondo? Kodi tikufunadi kuyika pachiwopsezo choyambitsa mikangano yankhondo pakati pa United States ndi China, mwangozi kapena mwanjira ina, yomwe ingathe kutha mphamvu ndikukhala nkhondo yotentha, mwina nyukiliya, yomwe imfa ndi chiwonongeko za zaka 20 zapitazi za “nkhondo zosatha” zingaoneke zazing’ono poziyerekeza.

Lingaliro lokhalo liyenera kukhala lodetsa nkhawa. Lingaliro lokhalo liyenera kukhala lokwanira kuimitsa Cold War ina nthawi isanathe.

Copyright 2021 David Vine

kutsatira TomDispatch on Twitter ndi kujowina ife Facebook. Onani Mabuku atsopano a Dispatch, buku latsopanoli la a John Feffer, Nyimbo za ku Songlands(womaliza m'mndandanda wake wa Splinterlands), buku la Beverly Gologorsky Thupi Lililonse Lili Ndi Nkhani, ndi a Tom Engelhardt Mtundu Wopanda Nkhondo, komanso Alfred McCoy's M'mithunzi ya American Century: Kukwera ndi Kutha kwa US Global Power ndi a John Dower Wachiwawa ku America Century: Nkhondo ndi Nkhanza Kuyambira Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yadziko Lonse.