By Mel Gurtov
Monga zidayembekezeredwa, Khothi Lamuyaya la Arbitration motsogozedwa ndi UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) lidapereka chigamulo pa Julayi 12 mokomera chigamulo cha Philippines kuti alenge zonena zaku China ku South China Sea (SCS) zosaloledwa. * Nthawi zonse, khotilo lidapeza kuti zomwe China akuti - zomwe zimafotokozedwa ndi omwe amatchedwa "XNUMX-dash line" - kumalo ozungulira nyanja ndi zida zake zapansi panyanja ndizosaloledwa, chifukwa chake kukonzanso nthaka ndi ntchito zomanga kuzilumbazi zimasokoneza kudera lazachuma ku Philippines. Ngakhale kuti chigamulochi sichinakhudze nkhani yokhudza ufulu pazilumba za SCS, idafotokozera mkangano wamalire. Chigamulochi chinapezanso kuti China ili ndi mlandu wovulaza malo am'madzi pomanga zisumbu zopangira anthu, zosokoneza mosaloledwa kusodza ndi mafuta aku Philippines, komanso "kukulitsa" mkangano ndi Philippines ndi ntchito zake zomanga. (Lamulo la chigamulochi ndi https://www.scribd.com/document/318075282/Permanent-Court-of-Arbitration-PCA-on-the-West-Philippine-Sea-Arbitration#download).
China idatsimikiza kuyankha kwake miyezi ingapo yapitayo. Unduna wa Zakunja udalengeza kuti chigamulo cha khothi lachiweluziro "nchachabechabe komanso chopanda chomenyera ufulu." Mawuwa adabwereza zomwe China idalamulira pazilumba za SCS. Idanenanso kuti lingaliro la China likugwirizana ndi malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi, lingaliro lomwe silimakhala limodzi ndikukana mphamvu zaku khothi lachiweluzo, makamaka lingaliro lake. China ikudzipereka kutsogolera zokambirana ndi omwe akukhudzidwa ndikuthetsa mikangano mwamtendere, akuti; koma "pankhani yokhudza madera komanso mikangano yochepetsera nyanja, China sivomereza njira iliyonse yothetsera mikangano yachitatu kapena yankho lililonse lomwe lingaperekedwe ku China" (Xinhua, Julayi 12, 2016, "Statement Yonse.")
Mwambiri, linali tsiku loyipa kukhothi ku People's Republic. Ngakhale ilonjeza kuti isatsatira chigamulochi, kutanthauza kuti China ipitilizabe kumenya nkhondo kuzilumba zomwe zikutsutsana ndikutchinjiriza "zofuna zake" pamenepo - gulu lake lankhondo lidachita zoyatsira moto woyamba ku SCS tsiku lomwelo khotilo lisanapereke chigamulo - kuwonekera ponena kuti dziko la China ndi “lamphamvu kwambiri.” Purezidenti Xi Jinping adanenanso mu 2014 kuti China iyenera kukhala ndi "mfundo zake zakunja zomwe zili ndi machitidwe apadera," omwe adawatcha "asanu ndi mmodzi olimbikira" (liuge jianchi). Mfundozi zikuyenera kupanga "ubale watsopano wapadziko lonse", komanso malingaliro monga "mgwirizano ndi kupambana-kupambana," liwu lalikulu kumayiko omwe akutukuka, komanso kuteteza chilungamo chamayiko. Koma opitilira sikisiwo adaphatikizaponso "osataya ufulu wathu ndi zofuna zathu" (zhengdang quanyi), zomwe nthawi zambiri zimakhala zongopeka pochita zinthu mosemphana ndi udindo wapadziko lonse lapansi. (Onani: http://world.people.com.cn/n/2014/1201/c1002-26128130.html.)
Atsogoleri aku China amayembekeza kuti kusaina ndi kuvomereza UNCLOS kungakhale kopindulitsa mdzikolo. Zikuwonetsa kudzipereka kwa China pamgwirizano wapadziko lonse lapansi, kuwonetsa China ikulemekeza ufulu wakunyanja wa ena (makamaka oyandikana nawo akumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia) komanso kuyimitsa ufulu wawo, ndikuthandizira kufufuzidwa kwa nyanja. Koma mapangano samachitika nthawi zonse monga amayembekezera. Tsopano popeza lamuloli latsutsa, achi China mwadzidzidzi akufuna kuchotsa khothi la UNCLOS ndikutanthauzanso cholinga cha msonkhanowo. Maboma ambiri sangayikire kumbuyo kubwerera m'mbuyo koteroko.
A US, ngakhale akhala akuthandizira malingaliro aku Philippines, alibe chilichonse chosangalatsa pano. Choyamba, dziko la US silinasaine kapena kuvomereza UNCLOS, ndipo potero ali m'malo ofooka kuti anganene m'malo mwawo kapena kupempha malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi komanso "dongosolo lokhazikitsa malamulo 'maboma akaphwanya (monga kulanda kwa Russia ku Crimea). Chachiwiri, monga China, US idali ndi lingaliro lamalamulo apadziko lonse lapansi pomwe "zokonda dziko" zili pachiwopsezo. Kaya ndi Khothi Lachilungamo Lapadziko Lonse kapena khothi lina lililonse lapadziko lonse lapansi, a US sanavomereze konse lingaliro lokakamiza, ndipo nthawi zambiri akhala akuchita ngati osachita kuchokera ku malamulo ndi malamulo. Chifukwa chake, monga China, udindo waku US ngati mphamvu yayikulu sikuphatikiza ulemu ndikutsatira mapangano ndi misonkhano yapadziko lonse lapansi, mabungwe azamalamulo apadziko lonse lapansi (monga International Criminal Court), kapena malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi (monga onena za kusalowererapo, kuphana , ndi kuzunza). (Onani: www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinam America/2014/05/america-and-international-law.) Ma US ndi China onse, amalankhula chimodzi, amalankhula koma samangoyenda pokhapokha malamulo atagwira ntchito yake.
Ndipo ndiye phunziro lenileni pano - kusasamala mphamvu zamphamvu, njira zawo zokomera okha malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi, komanso kuchepa kwa mabungwe azamalamulo kuti akakamize machitidwe awo. Mwina pankhani ya SCS China ndi Philippines, zomwe zili pansi pa purezidenti watsopano, apeza njira yobwererera pagulu lazokambirana ndikukonzekera mgwirizano womwe ungasokoneze nkhani yovuta kwambiri yokhudza ulamuliro. (Onani positi yanga yomaliza pamutuwu: https://mgurtov.wordpress.com/2016/06/11/post-119-too-close-for-comfort-the-dangerous-us-china-maritime-dispute/Zingakhale bwino; koma sichingathetse vuto lalikulu loti kumvera malamulo kumalimbikitsidwa ndikukhazikitsidwa mdziko lodzala ndi zipolowe.
* Khothi, lomwe ntchito yake pa mlandu wa SCS inayamba mu 2013, ili ndi mayiko ochokera ku Ghana, Poland, Netherlands, France, ndi Germany.
