lolembedwa ndi Marc Kodack / Center for Climate & Security, Wachilengedwe Wotsutsa Nkhondo, August 20, 2021
Kutentha Kwambiri Kuchokera Kusintha Kwanyengo Kungasokoneze Zida Zosungidwa ndi Zowonongeka
Marc Kodack / Center for Climate & Security
(Disembala 23, 2019) - Kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhudza zinthu zambiri, mwachitsanzo, zida, zomwe US Amy amadalira pomenya nkhondo. Pamene kutentha kumakulirakulira malo ouma padziko lapansi, monga Middle East (zomwe ndizofunikira kwambiri ku Chitetezo cha dziko la US), kusungidwa kwa zipolopolo ndi zophulika (AE) pansi pa kutentha kwakukulu kumatha kubweretsa kusakhazikika komanso kuphulika kosayembekezereka.
A posachedwapa nkhani in Scientific American [onani nkhani ili m'munsiyi - EAW] ikufufuza posungira zipolopolo momwe "kutentha kwakukulu kumatha kufooketsa kukhulupirika kwa gulu lankhondo, kuchititsa kukhathamira kwa mankhwala ophulika ndikuwononga zishango zoteteza."
Zipangizo zamatabwa zimatha kupirira kutentha kwakanthawi kochepa. Madera okhudzana ndi kutentha amakhala 60% m'malo okhala zipolopolo pakati pa Epulo mpaka pakati pa Seputembara pomwe kutentha kwakukulu kumachitika m'malo monga Middle East. Kuchokera m'nkhaniyi:
Popanda kuwunika pafupipafupi, zida zophulika mkatikati mwa zida zankhondo zimatha kukakamira kudutsa zisindikizo ndi mapulagi, zipolopolo zofooka kwambiri. Nitroglycerin imakhala yovuta kwambiri ikangotenga chinyezi kotero kuti ngakhale kugwedezeka pang'ono kumatha kuyimitsa ... Mphamvu yakuthupi kochuluka kwambiri ndikuti kupsinjika kwakukulu kumachitika pakati pazigawo chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwakukulira kwa zinthuzo ... Kutentha kwakukulu kumakulitsanso chiopsezo chothana ndi zolakwika ndi onyamula zida otopa.
Izi zimadzetsa zoopsa pakusamalira ndi kusunga mosamala. Asitikali aku US adatero Njira yosungira AE munthawi zovuta, zomwe zimatha kusiyanasiyana kuchokera kumalo osungira kupita kumalo otseguka / opanda zotengera. AE ikhoza kusungidwa pansi kapena pamalo osasintha.
Malinga ndi ankhondo a 2016 kuwatsogolera pa nkhaniyi, zambiri "Zinthu za AE zimakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kutentha ndipo zimakhudzidwa ndi kutentha kwambiri poyerekeza ndi zomwe zimafunikira kuyatsa nkhuni, mapepala, ndi nsalu wamba ... kuwonongeka kumathamanga msanga chinyezi chikaphatikizidwa ndikutentha." Kusintha kwanyengo sikunatchulidwe ngati kusiyanasiyana komwe kumafunika kuganiziridwa pokonzekera kusungidwa kwa AE, komabe.
Kulamulira kutentha m'malo ouma mkati mwa malo ovomerezeka omwe samachepetsa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa AE, ngakhale AE ikasungidwa mkati mwa malo kapena poyera, zikhala zovuta. Kuchuluka kwa kutentha kuchokera pakusintha kwanyengo kudzawonjezera njira zonse zosungira. Izi zimaphatikizaponso zida zilizonse zomwe zalandidwa zomwe ziyenera kutetezedwa ndikusungidwa. Kuonetsetsa kuti AE yokwanira ya mitunduyo ndi kuchuluka kwake ikhala yothandiza komanso yofunikira kugwiritsidwa ntchito pakufunika, ndi gawo lina lomwe kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhudza asitikali ankhondo opanga mphamvu ndikukwaniritsa zolinga zake monga gawo la Gulu Lankhondo.
Yotumizidwa molingana ndi Mutu 17, Gawo 107, Khodi yaku US, pazinthu zosachita malonda, maphunziro.
Kusintha Kwanyengo Kungakhale Kukulitsa Malo Osungira Zida
Kutentha kwakukulu kumatha kusokoneza zida za zida zankhondo, makamaka kumene zophulika sizikusungidwa bwino
Peter Schwatzstein / Scientific American
(Novermber 14, 2019) - Kunali kutatsala pang'ono 4 AM, m'mawa wopanda mpweya mu June 2018, pomwe malo osungira zida ku Baharka, Iraq Kurdistan, anawombera. Kuwala kwa m'mawa kwa ma kilomita kuzungulira, kuphulikako kunatumiza ma roketi, zipolopolo ndi zipolopolo zankhondo zikuzungulira mbali zonse. Akuluakulu akuti palibe amene waphedwa. Koma pakadapanda ola loyambirira ndikuchepetsa gulu lankhondo, chiwerengerochi chikadakhala chowopsa.
Chaka chotsatira, china nkhokwe inaphulika kum'mwera chakumadzulo kwa Baharka, akuti akuwononga zipolopolo mamiliyoni ambiri a madola omwe adasonkhanitsidwa polimbana ndi ISIS. Kuphulika kawiri kofananako kuzungulira Baghdad kunatsata milungu ingapo pambuyo pake, kupha ndi kuvulaza anthu ambiri pakati pawo. Kutha kwa chilimwe chathachi, malo osachepera asanu ndi limodzi anali atayaka ku Iraq kokha, malinga ndi magwero achitetezo aku Iraq.
Ngakhale kuti kuphulikaku kunalibe, ofufuzawo adavomereza kuti zochitika zambiri zimakhala ndi mutu umodzi: nyengo yotentha. Kuphulika kulikonse kumabwera mkati mwa chilimwe chotalika, chotentha ku Iraq, pomwe kutentha kumakhala kopitilira madigiri 45 Celsius (113 madigiri Fahrenheit). Ndipo onse adagunda pomwe mafunde amphamvu akutentha. Akatswiri ophulitsa mabomba amatero kutentha koteroko kumatha kufooketsa mapangidwe a zomangamanga, kuyambitsa kutentha kwa mankhwala ophulika ndikuwononga zishango zoteteza.
Kusintha kwanyengo kukukweza kutentha kwa chilimwe ndikukulitsa kuchuluka ndi kutentha kwa mafunde padziko lonse lapansi, akatswiri azida amachenjeza za kuphulika kosakonzekera komwe kumachitika m'malo opangira zida zankhondo, kapena UEMS - makamaka m'malo omwe mwadzaza mikangano kapena osasunga bwino chuma, kapena onse awiri.
Kuphatikizana kwamphamvu uku kukuyambitsa chiwonongeko ndi imfa zomwe zili ndi anthu okhala m'malo ankhondo kwambiri. "Kutentha kukangotentha, timaopa choipitsitsa," akutero a Emad Hassan, wowotcherera zitsamba ku Dora, mdera la Baghdad lomwe lakhala likukumana ndi masoka achilengedwe angapo.
Zimangotenga Chimodzi
Palibe ziwerengero zambiri zomwe zimafotokoza makamaka za kutentha - makamaka chifukwa nthawi zambiri amapha mboni zilizonse zapafupi ndikuwononga umboni, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kudziwa zomwe zimayambitsa izi. Koma kugwiritsa ntchito deta kuchokera ku Small Arms Survey, ntchito yowunika zida zankhondo yomwe ili ku Geneva, kusanthula kochitidwa ndi wolemba nkhaniyi kukuwonetsa kuti UEMS ili ndi mwayi wokwanira 60% pakati pa Epulo mpaka pakati pa Seputembala.
Zomwezo zikuwonetsanso izi pafupi peresenti 25 za masoka achilengedwe otere samadziwika. Wina wachisanu akuganiziridwa kuti akukhudzana ndi zachilengedwe - zomwe zikusonyeza kuti kutentha kutha kukhala chimodzi mwazomwe zimayambitsa - malinga ndi akatswiri khumi ndi awiri azankhondo ndi akuluakulu ankhondo omwe adafunsidwa pankhaniyi.
Zida zambiri zimapangidwira kutentha kwambiri koma munthawi yochepa. Ngati tikhala pachiwopsezo chotentha kwambiri komanso chinyezi kwa nthawi yayitali, gulu lankhondo limatha kukhala losakhazikika ndipo limatha kudzichotsera lokha. Mitengo yomwe ili pamitengo yolimbana ndi anthu ogwira ntchito m'migodi imawola; labala ndi pulasitiki m'migodi ya pulasitiki zitha kuphwanya dzuwa losalekeza. Popanda kuwunika pafupipafupi, zida zophulika mkatikati mwa zida zankhondo zimatha kukakamira kudutsa zisindikizo ndi mapulagi odzaza, malo osalimba kwambiri a zipolopolo. Nitroglycerin imakhala yovuta kwambiri ikamayamwa chinyezi kotero kuti ngakhale kugwedeza pang'ono kungayambitse. Phosphorous yoyera imasungunuka kukhala madzi pa Madigiri 44 C. ndipo imatha kuthyola kanyumba kakang'ono ka munjanji ikakulirakulira komanso kugwirana ndi kutentha.
Zaphulika zikatuluka, ena amachita ndi zonyansa zomwe zili mumlengalenga kuti apange makhiristo owopsa panja omwe amatha kuphulika ndikakangana kapena kuyenda. John Montgomery, mlangizi wamkulu waukadaulo wa zida zankhondo zophulika ku Halo Trust, mgodi wophulika -kuwonetsa bungwe lopanda phindu.
Zipolopolo zamatope, ma roketi ndi zida zankhondo zimakhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu chifukwa zimayendetsedwa ndi zida zomwe zimawapangitsa kuti azitha kuyambitsa ngakhale atakhumudwitsidwa pang'ono. Zodzikongoletsera zamagetsi zimapewa kudziyatsa. Koma pakukula kulikonse kwa madigiri asanu-C kuposa kutentha kwake kosungika, olimba amachotsedwa ndi 1.7, malinga ndi Halo Trust. Kuchepetsa kumeneko kumathamanga ngati zida zankhondo zitha kutenthedwa kwambiri masana.
Potsirizira pake, sipadzakhalanso yolimba - ndipo monga chotulukapo chake, nthawi zina sipadzakhalanso malo opangira zida zankhondo. Ambiri mwa Cyprus idataya magetsi mu Julayi 2011 pamene siteshoni yamagetsi yayikulu mdzikolo idachotsedwa ndi zidebe zonyamula 98 zodzaza ndi zida zankhondo zaku Iran zomwe zidaphulika nditaphika kwa miyezi ingapo pansi pa dzuwa la Mediterranean, ndikuwononga zida zawo.
Kutentha kwapamwamba kumabweretsanso chiopsezo chothana ndi zolakwika za anthu otopa. Kuchokera m'malo opikisana mpaka kumalo osungiramo zida za NATO, asitikali akuti nthawi yachilimwe ndipamene ngozi zoopsa zimachitika chifukwa chopanga zisankho mwachangu komanso zida zomvera, zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi kutentha kwakukulu. "Kunkhondo, zonse zimakhala zovuta nthawi yachilimwe," watero mkulu wina wazankhondo waku Iraq yemwe amatchedwa Ali. "Ndipo tsopano chilimwe sichitha."
Vuto Lotheka
Zomwe zanyengo zimasiyanasiyana ku Middle East ndi North Africa, koma kutentha kotentha kwambiri kumadera amenewo kumatha kukwera mpaka madigiri asanu ndi awiri C. Wolemba 2100, kafukufuku wa 2016 mu Kusintha Kwanyengo anamaliza. Ndipo a phunziro 2015 anapeza kuti mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja ku Middle East idzawona zochitika ndi kutentha kwakukulu ndi chinyezi. Izi zakhazikitsa kuthekera kwa ma UEMS ambiri mtsogolo.
Ngakhale kuchuluka konse kwa UEMS kumawoneka ngati kukucheperachepera mzaka zaposachedwa, popeza zida zakale zankhondo zozizira zidagwiritsidwa ntchito kapena kuthetsedwa, kutentha kwakutentha kumawoneka ngati kukufooketsa izi mzaka zingapo zapitazi, atero a Adrian Wilkinson, woyang'anira zida zakale a United Nations ndi mabungwe ena.
Zofufuzira m'malo ambiri akutukuka zikuwonongeka mwachangu kuposa m'mbuyomu chifukwa cha kutentha, ndipo asitikali akulephera kuwataya munthawi yake, atero akatswiri azankhondo ndi akuluakulu ankhondo omwe adafunsidwa pankhaniyi.
M'madera ena apadziko lonse lapansi, kusachita bwino kwa magulu ambiri okhala ndi zida zankhondo kumatanthauza kuti ali ndiukadaulo wocheperako ndipo nthawi zambiri amakhala m'nyumba zopangira zida zanthawi, komwe kumatha kuwonetsedwa ndi dzuwa komanso kuchitiridwa nkhanza, malinga ndi zida zodziyimira- Katswiri woyang'anira Benjamin King. Ndipo chifukwa Kusintha kwanyengo kungayambitse ziwawa m'malo ambiri omwe UEMS yokhudzana ndi kutentha ikuchulukirachulukira, kuphulika kumeneku kumatha kulepheretsa kukonzekera kwa mayiko ena panthawi yomwe amafunikira kwambiri.
Pali njira zothandiza kuthana ndi vutoli, komabe. Posunga zida zanyumba zomwe zimayang'aniridwa ndi kutentha komwe kuli malo ozungulira omwe alibe mabulashi ndi zinthu zina zomwe zimayaka, asitikali omwe ali ndi mbiri yoyipa yachitetezo amatha kuchepetsa chiopsezo cha madepoti awo kukulitsa kutentha ndi zochitika zina zachilengedwe, a Wilkinson atero. Ine
ndia adaphunzira phunziroli mu 2000, pomwe udzu wautali udawotcha ndikuwotcha malawi ndikuphulika, ndikupha anthu asanu. UEMS owopsa kwambiri, kuphatikiza m'modzi mu 2002 yomwe idapha anthu opitilira 1,000 ku Nigeria, anali m'matawuni - chifukwa chake pomanga m'malo akutali okhala ndi anthu ochepa, asitikali amathanso kuchepetsa kugwa ngati zoyipitsitsa zikachitika.
Chofunika koposa, kuti asitikali akuyenera kuyendetsa bwino zinthu zawo, atero akatswiri angapo komanso osachita phindu Geneva International Center Yothandiza Anthu Kupha Anthu. Osatsimikiza kuti ali ndi chiyani nthawi zambiri, oyang'anira madepoti samadziwa nthawi yomwe zida zosiyanasiyana ziyenera kuwonongedwa.
“Muyenera kukhala ndi zolembedwa zonse ndi zolemba zokhudzana ndi kusungidwa, kusintha kwa kutentha, chinyezi ndi zina zambiri. Iyenera kukhala njira yodalirika, "atero a Blaz Mihelic, omwe kale anali oyang'anira zida komanso oyang'anira ntchito ku ITF Enhancing Human Security, yopanda phindu ku Slovenia zomwe zimagwira ntchito yochepetsa zida.
Koma kuti zonsezi zisinthe, padzakhala kusintha kwamalingaliro, akatswiri azamphamvu akuti. Asitikali ambiri samapanga zida zosungidwa kukhala zofunika kwambiri, ndipo iwo - komanso akatswiri azachilengedwe - sakukondwera ndi chiyembekezo chodutsa munjira yotsika mtengo komanso nthawi zina kuipitsa ndikuwatsitsimutsa nkhokwe zawo pafupipafupi.
"Kungakhale kovuta kuti boma lililonse liyang'ane zipolopolo pokhapokha china chake chachitika, chifukwa si nkhani yachiwerewere," akutero a Robin Mossinkoff, wamkulu wa gawo lothandizira ku Forum for Security Co-operation ku intergovernmental Organisation for Security ndi Mgwirizano ku Europe. "Koma ngati mungakwanitse kuwononga $ 300 miliyoni kugula zida zatsopano, mutha kutero."
Yotumizidwa molingana ndi Mutu 17, Gawo 107, Khodi yaku US, pazinthu zosachita malonda, maphunziro
