Ndi Stephen Zunes, Mafilimu Othandiza
ZOPOSA NTHAWI ZINA ZONSE m'mbiri, mlandu wolimba ukhoza kuchitidwa pazifukwa zogwiritsa ntchito, kuti nkhondo siyifunikanso. Malamulo osagwirizana ndi achiwawa sayenera kukhala maloto a ochita zankhondo komanso olota. Zili pafupi ndi ife.
Nkhondo yotsutsana chabe ndi kulemba zotsatira zake zoipa sikokwanira. Tifunika kukhazikitsa njira zina zowonjezera, makamaka ngati tikuyesetsa kuthetsa nkhondo chifukwa cha zifukwa zomwe zimayambitsa nkhondo, ntchito zodziletsa, komanso kuteteza anthu omwe amazunzidwa ndi kupha anthu.
Maiko ena adagwiritsa ntchito kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka nkhondo komwe akulimbana ndi maulamuliro. Ena adalimbikitsanso kuti azitha kupititsa patsogolo milandu pazinthu izi kuti athandize demokalase. Komabe, pali njira zina zowonjezeretsa kubweretsa ulamuliro.
Sizinali asilikali achikunja a New People's Army omwe adatsitsa ulamuliro wa ulamuliro wa Marcos ku United States ku Philippines. Anali amishonale akupempherera rosari kutsogolo kwa akasinja a boma, ndi mamiliyoni ena a mawonetsero omwe sanali azimayi amene anabweretsa Manila wambiri kuti ayime.
Sipanakhale masabata khumi ndi limodzi omwe anapha mabomba omwe anagwetsa mtsogoleri wa dziko la Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, yemwe anali "woponya mabomba ku Balkans." Iwo anali osagwirizana ndi kayendetsedwe kotsutsa - motsogoleredwa ndi ana aang'ono omwe mbadwo wawo unaperekedwa pamsasa wamagazi wotsutsana ndi oyandikana nawo Maboma a Yugoslavia - omwe adatha kukweza gawo lalikulu la anthu kuti akonze chisankho chobedwa.
Sipanali mapiko a asilikali a African National Congress omwe amachititsa kuti boma lilamulire South Africa. Anali antchito, ophunzira, ndi anthu okhala m'matawuni omwe - pogwiritsa ntchito zigawenga, anyamata, anyumba komanso zipatala zina - zinapangitsa kuti chisankho cha chigawenga chisapitirire.
Sikunali NATO yomwe inatsitsa maboma a chikomyunizimu a kum'mawa kwa Ulaya kapena inamasula mabungwe a Baltic kuchokera ku Soviet control. Anali anthu a ku Poland omwe ankapita nawo ku tchalitchi cha East Germany, anthu a ku Estonia, akatswiri a ku Czech, komanso anthu mamiliyoni ambiri omwe anali nzika zodziwika bwino.
Mofanana ndi a Jean-Claude Duvalier ku Haiti, Augusto Pinochet ku Chile, Mfumu Gyanendra ku Nepal, General Suharto ku Indonesia, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali wa ku Tunisia, ndi olamulira ankhanza ochokera ku Bolivia kupita ku Benin ndi Madagascar kupita ku Maldives anakakamizika Zidasokonezeke pamene zinaonekeratu kuti iwo alibe mphamvu pakulimbana kwakukulu ndi kusagwirizana.
Ntchito Yopanda Chilungamo Yasintha
Mbiri yakawonetsa kuti, nthawi zambiri, zochita zowonongeka zomwe zingakhale zopambana zitha kukhala zogwira mtima kusiyana ndi kumenya nkhondo. Kafukufuku waposachedwapa wa Freedom House anasonyeza kuti, mwa maiko pafupifupi makumi asanu ndi awiri omwe adasintha kuchokera kuulamuliro ku demokarasi yoposa zaka makumi atatu ndi zisanu zapitazo, ndi ochepa okha omwe anachita zimenezi kupyolera m'magulu ankhondo kapena m'masinthidwe omwe amachokera pamwamba. Palibe chiwonongeko chilichonse cha demokalase chatsopano chochokera kudziko lina. Pafupifupi magawo atatu mwa magawo atatu a kusinthako, kusintha kunayambika m'mabungwe a demokarasi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito njira zopanda chinyengo.
Mofananamo, mu bukhu lovomerezeka kwambiri Chifukwa Chake Kusagwirizana Kwachigawo Kumagwira Ntchito, olemba Erica Chenoweth ndi Maria Stephan (omwe ali ovomerezeka mwachidwi, ofufuza kwambiri) akuzindikira kuti mwazitsulo zazikulu za 350 zothandizira kudzilamulira ndi ulamuliro wa demokalase m'zaka zana zapitazi, kukana kwakukulu kunapambana ndi 26 peresenti ya nthawiyo, pomwe makamaka ntchito zopanda malire zinali ndi 53 peresenti ya kupambana. Mofananamo, awona kuti nkhondo zopambana zimatha zaka zisanu ndi zitatu, pamene nkhondo zosagonjetsedwa zimatha zaka ziwiri zokha.
Chizoloŵezi chosasinthika chakhala chida chothandizira kuthetsa ziphuphu za boma. Ku Germany ku 1923, ku Bolivia ku 1979, ku Argentina ku 1986, ku Haiti ku 1990, ku Russia ku 1991, ndi ku Venezuela ku 2002, amatsutsana pamene a plotter anazindikira, anthu atapita kumsewu, Nyumba zazikulu ndi mabungwe sizikutanthauza kuti iwo anali ndi mphamvu.
Kusamvana kwachinyengo kwachitanso kukana ntchito ya usilikali kunja. Panthawi yoyamba ya Palestina intifada mu 1980s, ambiri mwa anthu ogonjetsedwawo anayamba kukhala odzilamulira okhaokha chifukwa chosowa ntchito ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa mabungwe ena, kukakamiza Israeli kulola kuti dziko la Palestine likhale lokhazikika komanso kuti azidzilamulira okha m'mizinda yambiri. madera a West Bank. Kukhazikitsa mtima kosagwirizana ndi anthu a ku Western Sahara kumapangitsa Morocco kuti apereke chidziwitso chodzilamulira chomwe - ngakhale kuti sichikuphweka kwambiri ndi udindo wa Morocco kuti apatse Sahrawis ufulu wawo wodzidalira - makamaka kuvomereza kuti gawoli si gawo limodzi chabe la Morocco.
M'zaka zomalizira za ku Germany ndi Denmark pa nthawi ya ulamuliro wa WWII, a Nazi sanayambe kulamulira. Lithuania, Latvia, ndi Estonia anadzimasula kudziko la Soviet pogwiritsa ntchito njira zosagwirizana ndi malamulo a USSR asanayambe kugwa. Ku Lebanoni, mtundu womwe unagonjetsedwa ndi nkhondo kwa zaka zambiri, ulamuliro wa Suriya zaka makumi atatu ndi zitatu unatha chifukwa cha kuuka kwakukulu, kosasunthika ku 2005. Ndipo chaka chatha, Mariupol anakhala mzinda wawukulu kwambiri kuti azitha kulamulidwa ndi zigawenga za ku Russia ku Ukraine, osati chifukwa cha mabomba ndi mabomba a asilikali a ku Ukraine, koma pamene zikwizikwi za ogwira ntchito zogwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zisanayambe kuyenda mwamtendere m'madera omwe anali kumidzi komanso kumudzi osiyana ndi asilikali.
Pafupifupi zonsezi zotsutsana ndi ntchito zinkachitika pang'onopang'ono. Bwanji ngati, mmalo mogwiritsa ntchito mabiliyoni a zida zankhondo - maboma angaphunzitse anthu awo potsutsana kwambiri ndi anthu? Maboma amatsutsana kwambiri ndi zida zawo zankhondo zomwe zimasokonekera monga njira zothetsera nkhondo za kunja. Koma magulu a mitundu yambiri ya padziko lapansi (yomwe ili yochepa), sangathe kuchita pang'ono kuti awononge amphamvu, othawa zida. Kukanika kwamphamvu kwa boma kungakhale njira yeniyeni yeniyeni yotsutsa kubwezeredwa ndi mnansi wamphamvu kwambiri mwa kusagwirizana kwakukulu ndi kusokonezeka.
Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zotsutsana ndi anthu ochita masewera a boma kwasintha kwambiri. Kodi kukana kutetezeka kungathandizenso kuthana ndi anthu osagwira ntchito, makamaka pa zochitika zokhudzana ndi zida zankhondo, zida zankhondo, magulu a zigawenga, ndi anthu omwe samasamala thandizo lachidziwitso kapena mayina a mayiko ena? Ngakhale pazochitika zomwe zingatchulidwe kuti "oponderezedwa," taona kupambana kwakukulu, monga Liberia yomwe inang'ambika ndi nkhondo ndi Sierra Leone, komwe makamaka kusunthika kwa amayi komwe kunayendetsedwa ndi amayi kunathandizira kwambiri kubweretsa mtendere. Ku Colombia, Guatemalan highlands, ndi Niger Delta, pakhala paliponse kupambana kosagwirizana ndi magulu a chitetezo cha boma komanso mabungwe odziwika paokha, kupereka zowona ngati zingatheke kuti zitheke njira.
Empirical Studies Pewani Mlandu Wachiwawa
Bwanji nanga za mazunzo okhwima omwe akuyendera pa chiwonongeko, chomwe chagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chofukwa cha zomwe amatchedwa udindo woziteteza? N'zochititsa chidwi kuti deta yamtunduwu imasonyeza kuti zomwe zimatchedwa kuti asilikali, akuwonjezeka chiwerengero cha kupha, mwachangu mu nthawi yochepa, ngati olakwirawo akuwona kuti alibe chotsalira ndipo otsutsa okonzekera zidawone okha kuti ali ndi chisawidwe chopanda kanthu popanda chifukwa chotsutsana. Ndipo, ngakhale patapita nthawi, kutetezedwa kwachilendo sikungachepetse kupha munthu pokhapokha ngati saloŵerera m'ndale, zomwe sizili choncho.
Tenga thandizo la 1999 NATO ku Kosovo: pamene nkhondo ya ku Serbia yotsutsana ndi zida zankhondo za Kosovar inalidi yachiwawa, kuyeretsa mafuko ambiri - pamene asilikali achi Serb anatulutsa zikwi mazana a anthu a ku Albania - anabwera kokha pambuyo NATO inalamula bungwe la bungwe la chitetezo ndi mgwirizano ku Ulaya kuchotsa zionetsero zawo ndikuyamba kuphulika. Ndipo mawu a pangano la cease-fire lomwe linathetsa masabata khumi ndi anayi pambuyo pake linali losemphana kwambiri pakati pa zofunikira zoyambirira za NATO pamsonkhano wa Rambouillet isanayambe nkhondo ndi chilolezo cha parliament ya Serbia, kufunsa funso ngati Mgwirizanowu ukanatha kukambirana popanda masabata khumi ndi anai akupha mabomba. NATO ankayembekeza kuti bomba lidzakakamiza Milosevic kukhala wolamulira, koma adamulimbitsa poyamba poyamba pamene Serbs adalumikizana ndi mbendera pamene dziko lawo likuphonyedwa. Achinyamata a Serbs of Otpor, gulu la ophunzira lomwe linayambitsa chiwawa chomwe chinagonjetsa Milosevic, chinanyoza boma ndipo chinawopsya ndi kuponderezedwa ku Kosovo, komabe iwo ankatsutsa kwambiri mabombawo ndipo anazindikira kuti icho chinabweretsanso chifukwa chawo. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, amanena kuti ngati mapiko ena a ku Kosovar Albania ndi aphiri lawo losavomerezeka anali atathandizidwa kuchokera kumadzulo kwa zaka khumi, nkhondoyo ikanatha kupezeka.
Uthenga wabwino, komabe, ndikuti anthu a mdziko sakuyembekezera kusintha kwa ndondomeko za maboma awo. Kuchokera ku mayiko osauka kwambiri ku Africa kupita ku mayiko olemera a kum'maŵa kwa Ulaya; kuchokera ku ulamuliro wa chikomyunizimu kupita ku ulamuliro wouluka wankhondo; Kuchokera kudera la chikhalidwe, malo, ndi maganizo, magulu a demokalase ndi kupititsa patsogolo, adziwa mphamvu ya kukakamiza anthu kuti asamangidwe ndi kupondereza nkhondo. Izi sizinabwere, nthawi zambiri, kuchokera ku chikhalidwe chauzimu kapena kudzipereka kwa uzimu kuchisokonezo, koma chifukwa chakuti chimagwira ntchito.
Kodi tinganene motsimikiza kuti gulu lankhondo silingakayikire konse? Kuti alipo nthawizonse Njira zina zopanda chinyengo? Ayi, koma tikuyandikira.
Mfundo yaikulu ndi yakuti miyambo ya chidziwitso imakhala yovuta kwambiri kuteteza. Mosasamala kanthu kena kamodzi kogwirizana ndi pacifism monga mfundo yaumwini, tikhoza kukhala ogwira mtima kwambiri povomereza malingaliro osavomerezeka ngati tikumvetsetsa ndikukonzekera njira zopanda chinyengo ku nkhondo, monga chichitidwe chosasinthika.
