ndi Trita Parsi, October 13, 2017
kuchokera CommonDreams
Osalakwitsa: Tilibe vuto pa mgwirizano wa nyukiliya wa Iran. Ikugwira ntchito ndipo aliyense kuyambira Mlembi Mattis ndi Tillerson kupita ku US ndi Israel intelligence services ku International Atomic Energy Agency avomereza: Iran ikutsatira mgwirizanowu. Koma a Trump atsala pang'ono kutenga mgwirizano wogwira ntchito ndikusandutsa vuto - vuto lapadziko lonse lapansi lomwe lingathe kuyambitsa nkhondo. Ngakhale kuvomerezedwa kwa mgwirizano wa Iran womwe Trump akuyenera kulengeza Lachisanu ndipo palokha sikugwetsa mgwirizano, kumayambitsa njira yomwe imawonjezera chiopsezo cha nkhondo m'njira zisanu zotsatirazi.
1. Ngati mgwirizano ugwa, momwemonso zoletsa pulogalamu ya nyukiliya ya Iran
Mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya, kapena Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) udatenga zochitika ziwiri zoyipa kwambiri pagome: Idatsekereza njira zonse za Iran ku bomba la nyukiliya ndikuletsa nkhondo ndi Iran. Popha mgwirizanowu, a Trump akuyika zonse ziwiri zoyipazo patebulo.
Monga ndikufotokozera m'buku langa Kutaya Mdani - Obama, Iran ndi kupambana kwa Diplomacy, inali ngozi yeniyeni ya mkangano wankhondo womwe udapangitsa olamulira a Barack Obama kukhala odzipereka kwambiri kuti apeze yankho laukazembe pavutoli. Mu Januwale 2012, Mlembi wa Chitetezo, Leon Panetta, adanena poyera kuti kuphulika kwa Iran - nthawi yomwe ingatenge kuti apange chisankho chopanga bomba mpaka kukhala ndi zida za bomba - inali miyezi khumi ndi iwiri. Ngakhale zilango zazikulu ku Iran zomwe zidapangitsa kuti achedwetse pulogalamu ya nyukiliya komanso kutsimikizira anthu aku Irani kuti pulogalamu ya nyukiliya ndiyokwera mtengo kwambiri kuti ipitirire, aku Iran adakulitsa mwamphamvu ntchito zawo zanyukiliya.
Pofika Januware 2013, patatha chaka chimodzi, changu chatsopano chinayamba ku White House. Nthawi yopuma yaku Iran idatsika kuchokera pa miyezi khumi ndi iwiri mpaka masabata 8-12 okha. Ngati Iran idaganiza zothamangira bomba, United States ikhoza kukhala ndi nthawi yokwanira kuyimitsa Tehran pankhondo. Malinga ndi wachiwiri kwa mkulu wa CIA a Michael Morell, kutha kwa nthawi yaku Iran kumapangitsa kuti US ikhale ".pafupi ndi nkhondo ndi Islamic Republic kuposa nthawi ina iliyonse kuyambira 1979.” Mayiko enanso anazindikira kuopsa kwake. "Chiwopsezo chenicheni cha nkhondo chinali pafupi kumveka ngati magetsi mumlengalenga kusanachitike mvula yamkuntho," Wachiwiri kwa Nduna Yowona Zakunja ku Russia Sergey Ryabkov anandiuza.
Ngati palibe chomwe chasintha, Purezidenti Obama adatsimikiza kuti, US posachedwa idzayang'anizana ndi chisankho: Kapena kupita kunkhondo ndi Iran (chifukwa cha kukakamizidwa ndi Israeli, Saudi Arabia ndi zinthu zina mkati mwa US) kuti asiye pulogalamu yake ya nyukiliya kapena kuvomereza ku Iran nyukiliya. kutsata. Njira yokhayo yochotsera mkhalidwe wotayikawu inali yankho laukazembe. Miyezi itatu pambuyo pake, US ndi Iran adachita msonkhano wachinsinsi ku Oman komwe olamulira a Obama adakwanitsa kupeza njira yolumikizirana yomwe idatsegula njira ya JCPOA.
Mgwirizanowu unalepheretsa nkhondo. Kupha mgwirizano kumalepheretsa mtendere. Ngati Trump igwetsa mgwirizanowu ndipo anthu aku Irani ayambiranso pulogalamu yawo, dziko la US posachedwa lidzakumana ndi vuto lomwe Obama adachita mu 2013. Kusiyana kwake ndikuti Purezidenti tsopano ndi Donald Trump, munthu yemwe sadziwa ngakhale kulemba. diplomacy, osasiya kuchita izo.
2. Trump ikukonzekera kutenga gulu la Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
Decertification ndi theka chabe la nkhani. A Trump akufunanso kukulitsa mikangano ndi Iran mderali, kuphatikiza kuchitapo kanthu Maboma onse a Bush ndi Obama adakana: Sankhani gulu la Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) ngati gulu la zigawenga. Osalakwitsa, IRGC ili kutali ndi gulu lankhondo la oyera mtima. Ndiwo omwe adayambitsa kuponderezana kwakukulu kwa anthu mkati mwa Iran ndipo idamenya nkhondo yankhondo yaku US mosalunjika ku Iraq kudzera m'magulu ankhondo a Shia. Koma yakhalanso imodzi mwankhondo zovuta kwambiri zolimbana ndi ISIS.
Kunena zowona, kutchulidwa sikumawonjezera kukakamiza komwe US ili kale kapena ikhoza kuyika pa IRGC. Koma imasokoneza zinthu m'njira yowopsa popanda phindu lililonse ku United States. Zoyipa zake, komabe, ndizowoneka bwino. Mtsogoleri wa IRGC Mohammad Ali Jafari adapereka a chenjezo lolimba sabata yatha: "Ngati nkhaniyo ili yolondola ponena za kupusa kwa boma la America poona gulu la Revolutionary Guards ngati gulu la zigawenga, ndiye kuti a Revolutionary Guards adzawona asilikali a ku America kukhala ngati Islamic State [ISIS] padziko lonse lapansi." Ngati IRGC ichitapo kanthu pa chenjezo lake ndikuyang'ana asilikali a US - ndipo pali zolinga za 10,000 ku Iraq - tidzakhala masitepe ochepa chabe kunkhondo.
3. Lipenga likuchulukirachulukira popanda mayendedwe otuluka
Kukwera ndi nthawi zonse masewera owopsa. Koma ndizowopsa makamaka mukakhala mulibe njira zama diplomatic zomwe zimawonetsetsa kuti mbali inayo imawerenga ma sign anu molondola komanso zomwe zimapereka njira zochepetsera. Kusakhala ndi njira zotulutsira zoterezi kuli ngati kuyendetsa galimoto popanda brake. Mutha kuthamanga, mutha kugwa, koma simungathe kuswa.
Olamulira ankhondo akumvetsa zimenezi. Izi ndi zomwe wapampando wakale wa Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen anachenjeza za boma la Obama lisanakhazikitse ndalama mu diplomacy. "Sitinakhale ndi kulumikizana mwachindunji ndi Iran kuyambira 1979," adatero Mullen. "Ndipo ndikuganiza kuti zabzala mbewu zambiri zolakwika. Mukawerengera molakwika, mutha kukulirakulira komanso kusamvetsetsa… Sitikulankhula ndi Iran, kotero sitikumvetsetsana. Ngati china chake chachitika, timatsimikiziridwa kuti sitidzakonza bwino - kuti padzakhala kuwerengetsa molakwika komwe kungakhale kowopsa kwambiri padziko lapansi. "
Mullen adapereka chenjezo ili pomwe Obama anali purezidenti, munthu nthawi zambiri amadzudzula chifukwa chokhala woletsa komanso wosafuna kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zankhondo. Tangoganizani momwe Mullen akuyenera kukhala wamantha komanso oda nkhawa lero pomwe a Trump akuyimba kuwombera muchipinda chochezera.
4. Ena ogwirizana ndi US akufuna kuti US imenye nkhondo yawo ndi Iran
Palibe chinsinsi kuti Israeli, Saudi Arabia ndi UAE akhala akukankhira US kwa zaka zambiri kuti apite kunkhondo ndi Iran. Israeli makamaka sanali kungowopseza kuti amenya nkhondo yodzitetezera yokha, cholinga chake chachikulu chinali kukopa United States kuti iwononge zida za nyukiliya za Iran ku Israeli.
"Cholinga," Prime Minister wakale wa Israeli Ehud Barak adavomereza ku Israeli pepala Ynet mu Julayi chaka chino"Zinali zopangitsa kuti anthu aku America awonjezere zilango komanso kuti agwire ntchitoyo." Pomwe bungwe lachitetezo ku Israeli masiku ano likutsutsa kupha mgwirizano wa nyukiliya (Barak mwiniwake adanenanso zambiri mu kuyankhulana ndi New York Times sabata ino), palibe zosonyeza kuti Prime Minister wa Israeli a Benjamin Netanyahu asintha malingaliro ake pankhaniyi. Adapempha Trump kuti "kukonza kapena nix"Mgwirizanowu, ngakhale kuti njira yake yothetsera mgwirizanowu ndi yosatheka kuti iwonetsetse kuti mgwirizanowo udzagwa - zomwe zingapangitse US panjira yomenyana ndi Iran.
Munthu yekhayo amene ali ndi malingaliro oyipa kuposa a Trump ndi Netanyahu. Pambuyo pake, izi ndizo zomwe adauza opanga malamulo aku US mu 2002 pomwe adawalimbikitsa kuti aukire Iraq: "Mukachotsa boma la Saddam, ndikukutsimikizirani kuti likhala ndi ziwonetsero zabwino kwambiri m'derali."
5. Opereka a Trump ali ndi chidwi choyambitsa nkhondo ndi Iran
Ena adanenanso kuti a Trump akutsata kuvomerezeka kwa mgwirizano wa Iran - ngakhale alangizi ake apamwamba adagwirizana kuti asatsike njira iyi - chifukwa chokakamizidwa ndi maziko ake. Koma palibe umboni wosonyeza kuti maziko ake amasamala za nkhaniyi. M'malo mwake, monga momwe Eli Clifton adalembera mosamalitsa, odzipereka kwambiri omwe amathandizira Trump kupha mgwirizano wa Iran si maziko ake, koma gulu laling'ono laopereka ndalama ku Republican. "Ochepa a kampeni yake yayikulu komanso opereka chitetezo chazamalamulo anena monyanyira za Iran ndipo, mwina, adalimbikitsa kugwiritsa ntchito chida cha nyukiliya motsutsana ndi Islamic Republic." Clifton adalemba mwezi watha.
Woyambitsa mabiliyoni a Home Depot Bernard Marcus, mwachitsanzo, apatsa Trump $ 101,700 kuti athandizire kulipira chindapusa cha a Trump ndi a Donald Trump Jr. kutsatira kafukufuku wosokoneza zisankho zaku Russia. Billionaire wa Hedge-fund Paul Singer ndi wopereka ndalama winanso kumagulu ochirikiza nkhondo ku Washington omwe Trump adawadalira kuti athandizire ndalama. Wopereka mabiliyoni wotchuka kwambiri, ndithudi, ndi Sheldon Adelson yemwe wapereka $ 35 miliyoni kwa pro-Trump Super PAC Future 45. Onsewa opereka chithandizo adakankhira nkhondo ndi Iran, ngakhale Adelson yekha ndi amene wapita kuti afotokoze. US iyenera kumenya Iran ndi zida zanyukiliya ngati njira yolumikizirana.
Pakadali pano, a Trump apita ndi upangiri wa mabiliyoni awa ku Iran kuposa a Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense ndi Chairman wa Joint Chiefs of Staff. Palibe chilichonse mwazochitika zisanu zomwe tatchulazi zomwe zinali zenizeni miyezi ingapo yapitayo. Zakhala zomveka ― mwina ― chifukwa Trump waganiza zowapanga kutero. Monga momwe George Bush adaukira Iraq ku Iraq, kulimbana kwa Trump ndi Iran ndi nkhondo yosankha, osati nkhondo yofunikira.
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Trita Parsi ndi woyambitsa ndi purezidenti wa National Iranian American Council komanso katswiri pa ubale wa US-Irani, ndale zakunja zaku Iran, komanso geopolitics ku Middle East. Iye ndi mlembi wa Kutaya Mdani - Obama, Iran ndi Kupambana kwa Diplomacy; Mpukutu Umodzi wa Dice - Diplomacy ya Obama ndi Iran; ndi Mgwirizano Wachinyengo: Zochita Zachinsinsi za Israeli, Iran, ndi United States.
