Na Rawiri Swanson, World BEYOND War, Hōngongoi 28, 2026
Tuhinga ka whai mai He teka tonu te pakanga.
Mai i taku tuhinga He Pakanga te Pakanga i te tau 2010, ā, i whakahoutia i te tau 2015, he rerekē ngā kōrero teka i whakamahia hei tautoko i ngā pakanga engari i haere tonu. He pono tonu taku whakarāpopototanga:
Kāore he mea kotahi e whakaponohia whānuitia ana e tātou mō ngā pakanga e āwhina ana i a rātou kia noho tonu i te ao e pono ana. Kāore e taea e ngā pakanga te pai, te whakakororia rānei. Kāore hoki e taea te whakamana hei huarahi ki te whakatutuki i te rangimārie, i tētahi atu mea whai hua rānei. Ko ngā take i homai mō ngā pakanga, i mua atu, i te wā, me muri iho (he maha ngā wā e toru ngā huinga take tino rerekē mō te pakanga kotahi) he teka katoa. He mea noa te whakaaro, nā te mea kāore tātou e haere ki te pakanga me te kore he take pai, i muri i te haerenga ki te pakanga, me whai take pai tātou. Me huri tēnei. Nā te mea kāore he take pai mō te pakanga, i muri i te haerenga ki te pakanga, kei te whai wāhi tātou ki te teka.
Engari kua rerekē ētahi mea. Kua mutu te Mate o Irāki. Ko te Mate o Irāki, i ahu mai i te Mate o Vietnam, he koretake ki te tautoko i ngā pakanga maha atu nā te wheako o te noho i roto i te Pakanga o Irāki. Ko te koretake o tēnei momo he mate, ehara i te māramatanga rangitahi. Ahakoa i kore a John Kerry, a John McCain, a Hillary Clinton, me te tini ke atu o ngā kaitautoko o te Pakanga o Irāki i tata mai ki a rātou, i eke katoa ki te tūranga perehitini, kāore a Donald Trump rāua ko Joe Biden i hinga.
I mahi a Trump rāua ko Biden i te mate Iraq i runga i te whakaaro kua whakahē rāua ki te whakaeke i a Iraq. kahore he tohu nā Trump tēnā i mahi. Ko Biden tonu i mahi he kaitautoko matua mō te whakarewatanga o taua pakanga. Te āhua nei ko te teka mō taua wā o mua i kitea he taumata tika mō tēnei ao hou. Engari kāore he whakaritenga, ahakoa te titiro whakamuri, me whakahē koe i te Pakanga o Irāki mō tētahi take e kī ana he whakarihariha whānui ki ngā pakanga. Ko te whakahē tino noa a Trump ko te korenga o te United States ki te tango i te hinu o IrākiHe mea pai ki te whakaaro he kata ia, engari i kōrero a Perehitini Trump i te tari matua o te Central Intelligence Agency i te 23 o Hānuere, 2017, ā, i whakatairanga i tētahi kaupapa here mō te whawhai hei tahae i ngā rauemi.
Kei te karohia ngā pakanga nui o te whenua e mate ai ngā mano tini o ngā hōia o Amerika. I te mea ko ngā mate o Amerika anake ngā mate e whai tikanga nui ana i roto i te nuinga o ngā mahi pāpāho a ngā kamupene o Amerika, ka puta te whakaaro kua ngaro kē ngā pakanga, te arotahi ki te iti o ngā mate o Amerika i te pakanga ki a Īrāna, me te teka mō aua pakanga.
Ko te pūrongo pāpāho o Amerika mō ngā pakanga, ina tupu, ka whakaiti i te tūranga o Amerika. I aro nui te iwi ki te pakanga i Ukraine mō tētahi wā - tae atu ki te pūrongo whakamiharo mō ngā patunga o te pakanga (mehemea i hipokina ngā taha katoa o ngā pakanga katoa pērā i tētahi taha o tēnei, tera pea ka memeha haere te pakanga, ka mate). Engari ko te nuinga o te wā, ko te pakanga i Ukraine i whakaahuatia hētia he mea kāore i te nui te pānga o te kāwanatanga o Amerika ki... ā, me nui ake te pānga ki a ia. I aro nui hoki te iwi ki te pakanga i Gaza - tae atu ki te mana hou o te pāpāho pāpori ki te awe i ngā pāpāho umanga - engari ko te nuinga o ngā pūrongo i tino aro ki te tiaki i te hunga e uru ana ki te kohuru tangata. Ko ngā pūrongo whakahē a ngā āpiha o Amerika mō te kohuru nui i āwhina i te wareware i te tūranga o Amerika ki te patu, ki te putea, ki te tiaki ture, me te whakatairanga tahi hei tautoko i a ia. I te mea e aro nui ana ngā pāpāho umanga ki ngā kereme a Amerika ki te "whakahē" i ngā whakamataku e pā ana ki ngā Pāretinia, ko te hautaka whakatoi, Te Aniana, ko te pane matua tēnei: “I tuhituhi a Trump i tētahi tirotiro pakari mō Netanyahu.”
I haere tonu ngā pakanga, ko te tikanga, e te tini tāngata, tae atu ki ngā pakanga rangi, ngā pakanga waka rererangi, ngā pakanga māngai, ngā pakanga a te US, ngā hurihanga whenua, me ngā tango whenua ā-motu i raro i te riri o te pakanga. I miharo ahau i taku haerenga ki Venezuela, i muri tata mai i te whakaekenga a te ope taua o Amerika i tōna tāone matua me te tahae i tōna perehitini, te auau o te whakaputanga mai a te iwi i ō rātou wehi kei pā ki a Gaza - arā, te whakangaromanga tino.
Ko ngā kōrero teka nui kāore i te whakahēngia ko te teka e mea ana, ahakoa te maha o ngā pakanga whakamataku me te kore rongonui, tera pea ka puta he pakanga pai a mua tata nei, ko te teka e kī ana ko te putea i ngā whakaritenga pakanga kāore i te hono atu ki te putea i ngā pakanga, ko te teka hou morearea e kī ana ko te putea i ngā whakaritenga pakanga he ratonga tūmatanui e kore e taea e tātou te nui rawa, me te teka ko te pakanga he mea e mahia ana e te iwi, e ngā kāwanatanga rānei i te nuinga o te wā.
Heoi anō, kāore te katoa i whakahē i tētahi taha, i ngā taha e rua rānei, o ngā pakanga katoa i tēnei wā. He wā anō i taea ai e te tini tāngata te whiriwhiri i tētahi pakanga o mua, ā, ka tapaina he pakanga pai (he mea whakahīhī, he kino rānei, engari he mea tika). Ka whakamāramahia e au i roto i te pukapuka te take i hē ai rātou, ahakoa ka tere te ngaro o te rongonui o te nuinga o ngā pakanga, kia whakaae ai te hunga i whakahē ahau ki a rātou i ētahi tau ki muri ki ahau ināianei. Engari ko ngā hoa whawhai o ngā pakanga ka whakaaro pea kei te tata mai tētahi pakanga pai kāore i rite i mua (he whakaoranga koretake rānei o te Pakanga Tuarua o te Ao i roto i tētahi ao tino rerekē) - i te iti rawa rānei ki te whakaaro ahakoa te kino o ētahi atu pakanga, he tino kino ngā pakanga o nāianei, kāore rawa i te pakanga. He tauira i muri i ngā tauira mutunga kore ka memeha haere tēnei moemoeā.
Kāore rānei te pūtea mō ngā whakaritenga pakanga e wehea ana mai i te pūtea mō ngā pakanga? Kāore ngā kaiwhakaara pakanga e whakaaro pērā. I kī a Trump i te tau 2026, i te wā i whakapaehia ai ia mō te takahi i te kupu whakaari kia kaua e whawhai:
"Kāore au i kī taurangi kāore he pakanga. He aha rā ahau i hanga ai i te ope taua kaha rawa atu o te ao?"
He aha rawa? Ki te kore koe i whakapono ki te kōrero pakiwaitara e mea ana ka puta te rangimārie mā te kaha o te ope taua me te ārai? Ko ngā tohunga kāore i te utua e ngā kamupene patu, te āhua nei kāore e whakapono ki taua kōrero. I te tau 2025, i whakaputa te Hōtaka Whakawhanake o te Kotahitanga o ngā Whenua o te Ao i tētahi pūrongo he whakatūpato mō te pikinga o ngā whakapaunga hōia. "He mārama ngā taunakitanga: kāore te nui o ngā whakapaunga hōia e whakamana i te rangimārie," te kī a te Hēkeretari-Tianara o te UN, a António Guterres, i te wā i whakaatu ai i te pūrongo. "He maha ngā wā ka whakararu i tēnei – ka whakakaha i ngā whakataetae patu, ka hōhonu ake te kore whakawhirinaki, me te tahuri ke atu i ngā rauemi mai i ngā pūtake o te pumau." I roto i te pūrongo tēnei whakarāpopototanga: "Ko te pikinga tonu o ngā whakapaunga hōia o te ao kei te hanga anō i te whenua haumarutanga o te ao i roto i ngā huarahi e aukati ana i te wāhi pūtea me te wāhi tōrangapū mō te ārai, te whakawhitiwhiti kōrero, me te kōrero. Ahakoa e whakahua ana ngā Whenua i ngā āwangawanga haumarutanga ā-motu hei whakamana i ēnei pikinga, ko te hua tāpiri ko te ngoikore o te whanaungatanga maha-taha, te taha o ngā tikanga ārai, me te whaiti o ngā awa mō te whakatau rangimārie i ngā tautohe."
Ae, i te wā i karangatia ai a Trump e te iwi ko "te kaitono rangimārie" i ia pōtitanga, i tohu ētahi o mātou ki tana tono kia nui ake te whakapaunga hōia, engari kāore i taea e mātou te tohu i a Hillary Clinton, i a Joe Biden, i a Kamala Harris rānei hei "kaitono rangimārie tūturu." Ko te hapa anake i kitea e mātou ko te tautuhi i tētahi kaitono rangimārie i te ngaro o tētahi.
I roto, i waho hoki i te tari, ko Trump te kaitautoko matua o tētahi teka tino kaha, he mea i nui ake te tinihanga nā te mea kāore i te whakapuakina. I tono a Trump kia whakapikihia ngā whakapaunga hōia, e te US me ētahi atu kāwanatanga, hei ōrau o tētahi ōhanga, o te hua ā-rohe rānei (GDP). I whakaatu tēnei, me te kore e kī, me ine te whakapaunga hōia hei ōrau o tētahi ōhanga, kaua hei tau tūturu o ngā tāra, hei tau rānei o ngā tāra mō ia tangata. Mō ngā kaikōrero o te US, he painga tēnei. Ki te inehia e te maha o ngā tāra i pau, kāore te whakapaunga hōia o te US i roto i te ao kotahi me te toenga o te ao; hei whakaatu i runga i te tūtohi, me hanga e koe he kauwhata o ngā whenua katoa, whakapirihia ki te pakitara, kātahi ka whakapirihia he tekau mā rua ngā pepa tāpiri ki runga ake, ki runga i te pakitara me te taha o te tuanui, kia uru ai te United States. Engari ki te inehia hei ōrau o te GDP, ka taea e te US te uru ki tētahi tūtohi me ētahi atu whenua. Heoi anō, he iti ake ngā tau. E rua ōrau te ahua he iti iho i te kotahi tiriona. Ko te mea nui ake, i tangohia mai ngā tau i te rangi kore, ā, ka taea te whakanui ake i ngā wā katoa e hiahia ana koe. I te tīmatanga o te tono a Trump kia 2 ōrau, i whakatūpato ētahi o mātou mēnā ka whiwhi ia, ka tono ia kia nui ake. I mua i tō mātou manawa, kua huri ia ki te 5 ōrau. Engari ko te mea kino rawa atu ko te māramatanga i whai mai i te hurihanga o ngā kōrero katoa mō te whakapaunga hōia ki ēnei kupu. Mēnā ko te whakapaunga hōia te kino whakahē e whakaponohia ana e ētahi o mātou, me whakaiti ki te kore. Mēnā he kino e tika ana, e ai ki te whakaaro o te tini, me whakatikatika kia rite ki te tūponotanga e kiia ana, ā, ka taea te whakaiti mā roto i ngā whakaaetanga whakakore patu, mā te whakakore rānei i ngā patu me ngā turanga kāore e aro ki te hiahia tūturu. Engari mēnā he mea me whakanui ake te whakapaunga hōia mā te tono kia nui ake, me waiho hei ratonga tūmatanui, hei tetahi atu momo whāinga rānei. Ka taea e Trump te mawhiti mā te whakamutu i te karanga i ngā mahi whakamahana katoa he "tiaki" me te whakahoki mai i tētahi tapanga pono ki te Tari Pakanga o Amerika, i te mea ko te pakanga, i roto i tōna katoa, he mahi atawhai. Ko ngā iwi i iti rawa te haumi ki te whakarite mō te patunga nui ka taea te whakahē he tāngata rawakore o te ao. Ko te hunga i whakautu i ngā tono a Trump me te Hēkeretari Tianara o NATO Mā te whakakore i te putea hauora me te reti hei tuku moni nui ki te pakanga, ka taea te whakanui i a rātou hei kaitiaki kawenga mō te Ao.
He mea whakakatakata, ahakoa ehara i te mea pouri rawa: ko te hunga i whakatairanga i ngā pakanga mō ngā whakatipuranga kia kiia ko te pakanga he "tiaki" kua kore e aro ki a Trump, ā, i tohe kia piri ki te ingoa Orwellian "Tari Tiaki," he tohu anō e whakapono ana rātou ki te taea o ngā pakanga pai me ngā pakanga tika.
I kōrerotia e au tētahi atu teka, ko te teka ko te pakanga he mea e mahia ana e te tangata, e ngā kāwanatanga rānei, tata rite tonu te nui. "Ka noho tonu ngā tama hei tama," "Ko te pakanga he āhua tangata," "Ko te pūnaha pūtea te pūtake o te pakanga," "Kei ngā wāhi katoa te pakanga," — kāore e tino mārama tēnei momo kōrero mena ka whakaae tātou kāore te 96 ōrau o te tangata e whawhai ana i te tauine rite ki tēnei 4 ōrau o te tangata i konei i te United States. I te raumati o te tau 2026, i tono a Trump kia utua e te Runanga neke atu i te $1.5 trillion i roto i ngā whakapaunga hōia. Engari e ai ki tētahi pūrongo mai i te Kaupapa Tirotiro Kāwanatanga, kua $1.5 ki te $1.7 trillion te whakapaunga hōia o Amerika i ia tau, i te $1.7 ki te $2.3 trillion rānei te huamoni nama mō ngā whakapaunga hōia o mua, $1.7 ki te $2.3 trillion ia tau. Ko ngā rerekētanga i waenga i ngā tātaitanga e rima i whakaatuhia i roto i te pūrongo he nui te pānga ki te uaua me te pōuri o te kāwanatanga o Amerika, tae atu ki te maha o ngā puna raraunga kāwanatanga ka taea te whakamahi. Me rangahau nui kia keri ai i te hōia, nā te mea kei te huna i ngā wāhi katoa. Engari ko te ngā taonga utu nui ko ngā mea pēnei i te "Haumarutanga Whenua," ngā utu mō ngā hōia tawhito, me te huamoni nama.
Kāore te pūrongo e homai ana i tētahi tohu iti, i tētahi take rānei hei ruarua i te tatauranga teitei rawa atu. Mena he tika taua $2.3 trillion ia tau, ā, ki te tāpirihia e ngā pononga a Trump i Capitol Hill tētahi atu $0.5 trillion hei whakamīharo noa iho, me tētahi atu $0.2 trillion mō te whakangaro i a Iran me te hanga anō i ngā turanga i whakangaromia e Iran - ā, ko te whakangaromanga e tatari ana kia puta koia te take mō te pakanga - kātahi ka eke tātou ki te $3 trillion... ā - ki te kore e puta he tuaiwi i roto i te tini o ngā mema o te Runanga - tētahi atu $3 trillion, neke atu rānei i te tau e whai ake nei, me te tau e whai ake nei.
E whakamahia whānuitia ana ngā tatauranga tahua hōia mai i te Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), nā te mea he maha ngā iwi o te Ao e whakarato ana i ēnei tatauranga kia taea ai te whakataurite. Engari e kī ana a SIPRI kei te $0.95 trillion te US i te tau 2025. E kī ana te pūrongo a POGO ko te korenga o SIPRI i ngā utu mō ngā hōia he hapa nui ake pea mō te United States (nāna i whawhai he maha ngā pakanga) i ērā atu whenua. He nui ake hoki te kāwanatanga o US i ngā iwi o te ao ina tae mai ki te nama. Ā, ko te iti ake o ngā nama iti o ētahi atu iwi nā ngā pakanga kāore i whawhaihia e rātou. Nō reira, kāore pea i te tino whakarihariha te whakataurite i waenga i te taumata tūturu o te whakapaunga hōia a US me te taumata o te SIPRI. ngā whakapaunga hōia a te katoa(Kia mōhio koe, kāore he raraunga a SIPR mō te tau 2025 mō Venezuela, Cuba, Korea ki te Raki rānei.)
I te tau 2025, ko te ao katoa ehara i te US, e ai ki ngā raraunga a SIPRI, i whakapau $1.86 trillion ki ngā ope taua. Ko Haina i whakapau $0.336 trillion, ko Rūhia $0.19 trillion, ko Īrāna $0.007 trillion. I taua wā, ko te US i $2.3 trillion, he nui ake i te toenga o te ao i te whakakotahitanga, neke atu rānei i te 4 ngā wā i te whakakotahitanga o ōna hoariri e toru kua tohua. Ko te US me ōna hoa rangatira me ōna hoa mahi me ngā kaihoko patu i te tau 2025 (arā, ko ia kāwanatanga engari ko ngā hoariri e toru kua tohua) i whakapau $3.63 trillion, tata ki te 7 ngā wā i te whakakotahitanga o ngā whakapaunga a ngā hoariri e toru kua tohua.
Ko te take e kore ai e taea e te kāwanatanga o Amerika te wikitoria i te pakanga, ehara i te korenga o te whakapaunga moni, engari he korenga o te tikanga mārama ki te ariā o te "wikitoria i te pakanga." Kāore he nui o te kohuru me te whakangaromanga e whakatenatena ana i ngā morehu kia pai, kia ngohengohe rānei ki a koe. Kāore rawa. Ka nui ake te haumaru o te Hononga o Amerika me te ao mā te whakaiti i te whakapaunga moni ki te pakanga, me te nui ake ki te āwhina tūturu, te mahi tahi, te mana o te ture, te whakakorenga o ngā patu, te whakawhitiwhiti kōrero, me te tiaki i ngā tāngata whenua kāore he patu.
He mea whakamihi ki a mātou, kāore i te tere ake te rongonui o te pakanga ki a Īrāna i ngā pakanga o mua. Kotahi tau me te hawhe te roa i mua i te kī a te nuinga kāore i tika kia tīmata te pakanga ki Afghanistan, ki Iraq rānei, ā, ahakoa i taua wā, kāore i a koe te nuinga hei whakamutu i ia o aua pakanga. Me haere tonu ēnei hei painga mō ngā hōia. Ināianei kua nui te nuinga hei whakamutu i te pakanga. He iti noa iho ngā mahi hei mahi mā tātou, engari ko te kī atu ki ngā kaitātari pōti kua mau i a tātou te teka. Me i mau katoa i a tātou, kua whakahē tātou, kua whakararuraru, kua aukati, kua kati hoki i te kāwanatanga o Amerika kia tutuki rā anō te ture.
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