Site na Media Benjamin na Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Jenụwarị 25, 2023
Akwụkwọ akụkọ nke Atomic Scientists ewepụtala elekere Doomsday 2023 ya okwu, na-akpọ nke a “oge ihe ize ndụ a na-enwetụbeghị ụdị ya.” O meela aka elekere ahụ ruo sekọnd 90 ruo etiti abalị, nke pụtara na ụwa dị nso n'ọdachi zuru ụwa ọnụ karịa ka ọ dị na mbụ, ọkachasị n'ihi na esemokwu dị na Ukraine abawanyela nke ukwuu ohere nke agha nuklia. Ntụle sayensị a kwesịrị ịkpọlite ndị isi ụwa ka ọ dị mkpa ngwa ngwa weta ndị ọzọ metụtara agha Ukraine na tebụl udo.
Ka ọ dị ugbu a, arụmụka banyere mkparịta ụka udo iji dozie esemokwu ahụ dabere na ihe Ukraine na Russia kwesịrị ịdị njikere iweta na tebụl iji kwụsị agha ma weghachi udo. Otú ọ dị, ebe ọ bụ na agha a abụghị nanị n'etiti Russia na Ukraine kama ọ bụ akụkụ nke "Agha Nzuzo Ọhụrụ" n'etiti Russia na United States, ọ bụghị naanị Russia na Ukraine kwesịrị ịtụle ihe ha nwere ike iweta na tebụl iji kwụsị ya. . United States aghaghịkwa ịtụle ihe ọ ga-eme iji dozie esemokwu ya na Russia nke butere agha a na mbụ.
Nsogbu geopolitical nke setịpụrụ ụzọ maka agha na Ukraine malitere na NATO gbajiri agbaji nkwa ọ bụghị ịgbasa n'Ebe Ọwụwa Anyanwụ Europe, ma nkwupụta ya na 2008 kpasuru ya iwe na Ukraine ga-eme ya. emesị sonye na nke a bụ isi mgbochi ndị agha Russia.
Mgbe ahụ, na 2014, US kwadoro kuu megide ọchịchị ahọpụtara nke Ukraine kpatara mgbawa nke Ukraine. Naanị 51% nke ndị Ukraine nyochara gwara otu ntuli aka Gallup na ha ghọtara nke ahụ eziomume nke ọchịchị mgbe a gbaghasịrị ọchịchị, na nnukwu ọnụ ọgụgụ dị na Crimea na na mpaghara Donetsk na Luhansk tozuru oke ịpụ na Ukraine. Crimea laghachiri Rọshịa, ọchịchị ọhụrụ nke Ukraine malitekwara agha obodo megide mba Donetsk na Luhansk kpọrọ onwe ya “Ndị Republics” nke Donetsk na Luhansk.
Agha obodo ahụ gburu ihe dị ka mmadụ 14,000, mana nkwekọrịta Minsk II na 2015 guzobere nkwụsị ọkụ na mpaghara nchekwa n'akụkụ akara njikwa, yana 1,300 mba ụwa. OSCE ndị na-ahụ maka nkwụsị na ndị ọrụ. Ahịrị nkwụsị nkwụsị ahụ nọrọ nke ukwuu ruo afọ asaa, yana ndị merụrụ ahụ jụrụ nke ukwuu site n'afọ ruo n'afọ. Mana gọọmentị Ukraine edozibeghị nsogbu ndọrọ ndọrọ ọchịchị dị n'okpuru site n'inye Donetsk na Luhansk ikike nnwere onwe ọ kwere ha nkwa na nkwekọrịta Minsk II.
Ugbu a bụbu Chancellor German Angela Merkel na Onye isi ala France Francois Holland ekwetala na ndị isi ọdịda anyanwụ kwetara naanị na nkwekọrịta Minsk II ịzụta oge, ka ha wee wulite ndị agha Ukraine ka ha mechaa nwetaghachi Donetsk na Luhansk site n'ike.
Na Machị 2022, ọnwa ka mbuso agha Russia gasịrị, e mere mkparịta ụka nkwụsị ọkụ na Turkey. Russia na Ukraine chepụta “Nkwekọrịta nnọpụiche 15” nke Onye isi ala Zelenskyy gosipụtara n'ihu ọha na kọwara nye ndị ya na mgbasa ozi TV nke mba na Maachị 27th. Rọshịa kwetara ịpụ na mpaghara ndị ọ na-enwe kemgbe mwakpo ahụ na February maka mgbanwe maka nkwa Ukraine ịghara isonye na NATO ma ọ bụ nọrọ n'ụlọ ọrụ ndị agha mba ọzọ. Usoro ahụ tinyekwara atụmatụ maka idozi ọdịnihu nke Crimea na Donbas.
Ma n'April, ndị enyi Ukraine dị n'Ebe Ọdịda Anyanwụ, United States na United Kingdom, karịsịa, jụrụ ịkwado nkwekọrịta nnọpụiche ahụ ma mee ka Ukraine hapụ mkparịta ụka ya na Russia. Ndị ọrụ US na Britain kwuru n'oge ahụ na ha hụrụ ohere ime "pịa" na "adịghị ike" Russia, na na ha chọrọ iji ohere ahụ mee ihe kacha mma.
Mkpebi jọgburu onwe ya nke gọọmentị US na Britain iji mebie nkwekọrịta nnọpụiche Ukraine n'ime ọnwa nke abụọ nke agha ahụ butere esemokwu dị ogologo ma na-agbawa obi na ọtụtụ narị puku mmadụ. ndị nwụrụ. Ọ dịghị akụkụ ọ bụla nwere ike imeri nke ọzọ nke ọma, mmụba ọhụrụ ọ bụla na-abawanye ihe ize ndụ nke "agha dị n'etiti NATO na Russia," dị ka odeakwụkwọ ukwu NATO Jens Stoltenberg n'oge na-adịbeghị anya. dọrọ aka ná ntị.
Ndị isi US na NATO ugbu a Mgbarakwa iji kwado nlọghachi na tebụl mkparita uka ha kwalitere n'April, na-enwe otu ihe mgbaru ọsọ nke inweta nchụpụ ndị Russia na ókèala ọ na-ewe kemgbe February. Ha ghọtara n'ezoghị ọnụ na ọnwa itoolu ọzọ nke agha na-adịghị mkpa na nke ọbara emebeghị ka ọnọdụ mkparịta ụka Ukraine dịkwuo mma.
Kama iziga ngwa agha ndị ọzọ iji mee ka agha na-enweghị ike imeri n'ọgbọ agha, ndị isi ọdịda anyanwụ nwere ibu ọrụ dị ukwuu iji nyere aka ịmaliteghachi mkparịta ụka ma hụ na ha ga-aga nke ọma n'oge a. Fiasco diplomatic ọzọ dị ka nke ha mere n'April ga-abụ ọdachi nye Ukraine na ụwa.
Yabụ kedu ihe United States nwere ike iweta na tebụl iji nyere aka ịkwaga udo na Ukraine na iwetulata ajọ Agha Nzuzo ya na Russia?
Dị ka nsogbu ogbunigwe Cuban n'oge Agha Nzuzo mbụ, nsogbu a nwere ike bụrụ ihe na-akpalite nnukwu diplomacy iji dozie ndakpọ na mmekọrịta US na Russia. Kama itinye n'ihe ize ndụ ikpochapụ nuklia n'ọkwa iji "mebie" Russia, United States nwere ike iji nsogbu a meghee oge ọhụrụ nke njikwa ngwá agha nuklia, nkwekọrịta mgbapụta na ntinye aka diplomatic.
Ruo ọtụtụ afọ, Onye isi ala Putin mere mkpesa banyere nnukwu akara ukwu ndị agha US na Eastern na Central Europe. Ma na nsonye nke mbuso agha Russia na Ukraine, US nwere n'ezie na -agba ume ọnụnọ ndị agha Europe ya. Ọ mụbara nke mkpokọta ntinye nke ndị agha America na Europe site na 80,000 tupu February 2022 ruo ihe dị ka 100,000. O zigala ụgbọ mmiri agha na Spen, ndị agha jet squadron na United Kingdom, ndị agha na Romania na Baltic, na usoro nchebe ikuku na Germany na Ịtali.
Ọbụna tupu mbuso agha Russia, US malitere ịgbasa ọnụnọ ya na ọdụ ogbunigwe na Romania nke Russia jụrụ kemgbe kemgbe ọ malitere ọrụ na 2016. Ndị agha US arụwokwa ihe The New York Times akpọ "nrụnye ndị agha US nke ukwuu” na Poland, dị naanị 100 kilomita site n'ókèala Russia. Ebe ndị dị na Poland na Romania nwere radar ọkaibe iji soro ngwa ọgụ ọjọọ na ngwa ọgụ interceptor iji gbatuo ha.
Ndị Rọshịa na-echegbu onwe ha na enwere ike ịmegharị nrụnye ndị a ka ọ gbaa ọkụ ma ọ bụ ọbụna ngwa agha nuklia, na ha bụ kpọmkwem ihe 1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Nkwekọrịta Amachibidoro n'etiti US na Soviet Union, ruo mgbe President Bush hapụrụ ya na 2002.
Ọ bụ ezie na Pentagon na-akọwa saịtị abụọ ahụ dị ka ihe nchebe ma na-eme ka a na-eduzighị ha na Russia, Putin nwere siri ọnwụ na ntọala ndị ahụ bụ ihe akaebe nke iyi egwu sitere na mgbasawanye ọwụwa anyanwụ nke NATO.
Nke a bụ ụfọdụ usoro US nwere ike ịtụle itinye n'elu tebụl ka ịmalite ime ka esemokwu ndị a na-abawanye ma melite ohere maka nkwekọrịta nkwụsị na udo na-adịgide adịgide na Ukraine:
- United States na mba ndị ọzọ dị n'Ebe Ọdịda Anyanwụ nwere ike ịkwado nnọpụiche Ukraine site n'ịkwenye isonye n'ụdị nkwa nchekwa Ukraine na Russia kwetara na March, mana nke US na UK jụrụ.
- US na ndị otu NATO nwere ike ime ka ndị Russia mara na mmalite mkparịta ụka na ha dị njikere ibuli mmachi megide Russia dị ka akụkụ nke nkwekọrịta udo zuru oke.
- US nwere ike ikwenye na mbelata dị ukwuu na ndị agha 100,000 ọ nwere ugbu a na Europe, na iwepu ngwa agha ya na Romania na Poland wee nyefee ntọala ndị ahụ n'aka mba ha.
- United States nwere ike kwenye na ya na Rọshịa na-arụkọ ọrụ na nkwekọrịta ịmaliteghachi mbelata n'otu n'otu na ngwa agha nuklia ha, na ịkwụsịtụ atụmatụ mba abụọ ahụ ugbu a iji wuo ngwa ọgụ dị ize ndụ karị. Ha nwekwara ike iweghachite Treaty on Open Skies, nke United States si na ya pụọ na 2020, ka akụkụ abụọ ahụ wee chọpụta na onye nke ọzọ na-ewepụ ma na-ekpochapụ ngwa agha ha kwenyere ikpochapụ.
- United States nwere ike imepe mkparịta ụka gbasara mwepụ nke ngwa agha nuklia ya na mba Europe ise ebe ọ nọ ugbu a arụ ọrụ: Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium na Turkey.
Ọ bụrụ na United States dị njikere itinye mgbanwe amụma ndị a na tebụl na mkparịta ụka ya na Russia, ọ ga-eme ka ọ dịrị Russia na Ukraine mfe iru nkwekọrịta nkwụsị nkwụsị nke na-anakwere, ma nyere aka hụ na udo nke ha na-akpakọrịta ga-adịgide adịgide ma na-adịgide adịgide. .
Ịwepụ Agha Nzuzo na Russia ga-enye Russia uru a na-ahụ anya iji gosi ụmụ amaala ya ka ọ na-agbapụ na Ukraine. Ọ ga-ekwekwa ka United States belata mmefu agha ya ma mee ka mba Europe nwee ike ilekọta nchekwa nke ha, dịka ọtụtụ n'ime ha. ndị mmadụ achọrọ.
Mkparịta ụka US-Russia agaghị adị mfe, mana ezi ntinye aka iji dozie esemokwu ga-emepụta ọnọdụ ọhụrụ nke enwere ike iji obi ike mee nzọụkwụ ọ bụla ka usoro udo na-ewuli elu nke ya.
Ọtụtụ n'ime ndị ụwa ga-eku ume ume ịhụ ọganihu na-akwụsị agha na Ukraine, na ịhụ na United States na Russia na-arụkọ ọrụ ọnụ iji belata ihe ize ndụ dị adị nke militarism na iro ha. Nke a ga-eduga n'ịkwalite nkwado mba ụwa na nsogbu ndị ọzọ siri ike chere ụwa ihu na narị afọ a-ma nwee ike ịmalite ịtụgharị aka nke Doomsday Clock site n'ime ka ụwa bụrụ ebe nchekwa maka anyị niile.
Medea Benjamin na Nicolas JS Davies bụ ndị odee Agha na Ukraine: Ime ka echiche nke esemokwu enweghị isi, dị site na OR Akwụkwọ na Nọvemba 2022.
Medea Benyaminu bụ onye nkwado nke CODEPINK maka Udo, na onye dere ọtụtụ akwụkwọ, gụnyere N'ime Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Nicolas JS Davies bụ odeakụkọ nọọrọ onwe ya, onye nyocha na CODEPINK yana onye dere ya Ọbara n'aka anyị: Mwakpo America na Mbibi nke Iraq.
