Los ntawm Lawrence Wittner, Kev Thaj Yeeb & Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv Blog, Ob Hlis 11, 2022
Cov neeg tawm tswv yim txog kev kub ntxhov hauv Ukraine tam sim no qee zaum muab piv rau Cuban missile ntsoog. Qhov no yog qhov kev sib piv zoo - thiab tsis yog vim tias lawv ob leeg koom nrog kev txaus ntshai US-Lavxias kev tawm tsam muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj kev tsov rog nuclear.
Thaum lub sijhawm xyoo 1962 Cuban ntsoog, qhov xwm txheej zoo ib yam li niaj hnub no nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Europe, txawm hais tias lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm lub hwj chim tau thim rov qab.
Nyob rau hauv 1962, lub Soviet Union tau encroached rau US tsoom fwv tus kheej-txhais sphere ntawm lub hwj chim los ntawm nruab nrab-ntaus nuclear missiles nyob rau hauv teb chaws Cuba, ib lub teb chaws tsuas yog 90 mais ntawm US. ntug dej. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Cuban tau thov cov foob pob hluav taws ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas ntxeem tau, ib qho kev ntxeem tau uas zoo li muaj peev xwm muab keeb kwm ntev ntawm Asmeskas kev cuam tshuam hauv Cuban affairs, nrog rau xyoo 1961 US-sponsored Bay of Npua ntxeem tau.
Tsoom fwv Soviet tau ua raws li qhov kev thov vim nws xav kom rov ua kom nws cov phooj ywg tshiab Cuban ntawm nws txoj kev tiv thaiv. Nws kuj tau xav tias kev xa cov foob pob hluav taws yuav txawm tias qhov sib npaug nuclear, rau Asmeskas. tsoom fwv twb tau xa mus rau nuclear missiles nyob rau hauv Qaib Cov Txwv, nyob rau hauv Russia tus ciam teb.
Los ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas txoj kev xav, qhov tseeb tias tsoomfwv Cuban muaj cai txiav txim siab txog kev nyab xeeb ntawm nws tus kheej thiab tias tsoomfwv Soviet tsuas yog luam tawm US txoj cai hauv tebchaws Turkey yog qhov tseem ceeb tsawg dua li qhov kev xav tias yuav tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam thaum nws tuaj. mus rau lub teb chaws Asmeskas ib txwm muaj kev cuam tshuam hauv Caribbean thiab Latin America. Yog li ntawd, Thawj Tswj Hwm John F. Kennedy tau hais kom US. naval blockade (uas nws hu ua "quarantine") nyob ib ncig ntawm Teb chaws Cuba thiab tau hais tias nws yuav tsis tso cai rau muaj nuclear missiles nyob rau hauv cov kob. Txhawm rau txhawm rau tshem tawm cov foob pob hluav taws, nws tshaj tawm, nws yuav tsis "txo" los ntawm "kev ua tsov rog nuclear thoob ntiaj teb."
Thaum kawg, qhov kev kub ntxhov hnyav tau daws. Kennedy thiab Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev tau pom zoo tias USSR yuav tshem cov cuaj luaj los ntawm Teb chaws Cuba, thaum Kennedy tau cog lus tias yuav tsis txeeb teb chaws Cuba thiab tshem US missiles los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv.
Hmoov tsis zoo, cov pej xeem hauv ntiaj teb tau tawm los nrog kev nkag siab yuam kev ntawm US.-Soviet confrontation tau coj mus rau qhov xaus kev thaj yeeb. Yog vim li cas yog tias US tshem tawm missile los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv tau ceev ceev. Yog li, nws tau tshwm sim tias Kennedy, uas tau coj txoj kab nyuaj rau pej xeem, tau yeej qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Kev Tsov Rog Txias yeej dhau Khrushchev. Qhov kev nkag siab tsis txaus ntseeg tau muab tso rau hauv Secretary of State Dean Rusk cov lus hais tias ob tug txiv neej tau sawv "pob qhov muag rau lub qhov muag," thiab Khrushchev "blinked."
Qhov tshwm sim tiag tiag, txawm li cas los xij, raws li peb tam sim no paub ua tsaug rau tom qab kev tshwm sim los ntawm Rusk thiab Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, yog tias Kennedy thiab Khrushchev tau lees paub, rau lawv qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb, tias lawv ob lub tebchaws muaj riam phom nuclear tau tuaj txog ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg txaus ntshai thiab tau swb mus rau kev ua tsov rog nuclear. Yog li ntawd, lawv tau ua qee qhov kev sib tham tsis pub lwm tus paub uas de-escalated qhov xwm txheej. Tsis txhob tso cov cuaj luaj nyob rau ntawm ciam teb ntawm ob lub teb chaws, lawv tsuas tau tshem ntawm lawv. Hloov chaw ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua dhau qhov xwm txheej ntawm Cuba, tsoomfwv Meskas tau tso tseg ib lub tswv yim ntawm kev ua phem. Xyoo tom ntej, hauv kev ua raws li qhov tsim nyog, Kennedy thiab Khrushchev tau kos npe rau Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Ib Ntus Txiav Txim Siab, lub ntiaj teb thawj daim ntawv cog lus tswj hwm riam phom nuclear.
Muaj tseeb tiag, de-escalation yuav ua hauj lwm tawm nyob rau hauv kev twb kev txuas nrog niaj hnub teeb meem ntawm Ukraine thiab Eastern Europe. Piv txwv li, raws li ntau lub teb chaws ntawm cheeb tsam tau koom nrog NATO los yog tab tom thov ua tsaug rau qhov kev ntshai tias Russia yuav rov pib dua nws txoj kev tswj hwm ntawm lawv lub teb chaws, tsoomfwv Lavxias tuaj yeem muab kev ruaj ntseg rau lawv, xws li rov qab koom nrog Cov Tub Rog Tub Rog nyob hauv. Tebchaws Europe Treaty, uas Russia tau thim rov qab ntau dua kaum xyoo dhau los. Los yog cov teb chaws sib cav tuaj yeem rov mus xyuas cov lus pom zoo rau European Common Security, nrov hauv xyoo 1980 los ntawm Mikhail Gorbachev. Qhov tsawg kawg nkaus, Russia yuav tsum thim nws cov armada loj heev, kom meej meej tsim los rau kev hem lossis ntxeem tau, los ntawm Ukraine ciam teb.
Lub caij no, tsoomfwv Meskas tuaj yeem siv nws tus kheej cov kev ntsuas rau de-escalation. Nws tuaj yeem nias Ukraine tsoomfwv kom lees txais Minsk cov qauv rau kev tswj hwm thaj tsam nyob rau sab hnub tuaj ntawm lub tebchaws. Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem koom nrog cov rooj sib tham ntev East-West kev ruaj ntseg uas yuav ua tiav qhov kev pom zoo los tiv thaiv kev ntxhov siab nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Europe feem ntau. Ntau qhov kev ntsuas muaj nyob hauv cov kab no, suav nrog kev hloov riam phom tawm tsam nrog riam phom tiv thaiv hauv NATO cov koom tes sab hnub tuaj Europe. Tsis muaj ib qho yuav tsum tau ua txoj kab nyuaj ntawm kev txais tos Ukraine lub koom haum NATO, vim tias tsis muaj kev npaj txawm tias yuav xav txog nws txoj kev koom tes yav tom ntej.
Kev cuam tshuam thib peb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog los ntawm United Nations, yuav muaj txiaj ntsig tshwj xeeb. Tom qab tag nrho, nws yuav ua rau txaj muag ntau dua rau tsoomfwv Meskas kom lees txais cov lus pom zoo los ntawm tsoomfwv Lavxias, lossis rov ua dua, dua li rau lawv ob leeg lees txais cov lus pom zoo los ntawm ib tus neeg sab nraud, thiab suav tias yog qhov nruab nrab, tog. Tsis tas li ntawd, hloov US thiab NATO cov tub rog nrog UN cov tub rog nyob sab Europe sab hnub tuaj yuav luag yuav ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam tsawg dua thiab xav kom cuam tshuam los ntawm tsoomfwv Lavxias.
Raws li Cuban missile ntsoog thaum kawg ntseeg Kennedy thiab Khrushchev, nyob rau hauv lub nuclear era muaj me ntsis yuav tsum tau txais - thiab ib tug ntau yam yuav tsum tau ploj - thaum lub hwj chim loj tau txuas ntxiv lawv cov kev coj ua ntau pua xyoo ntawm kev txiav tawm tshwj xeeb spheres ntawm lub hwj chim thiab koom nrog siab- stakes tub rog confrontations.
Muaj tseeb tiag, peb, ib yam nkaus, tuaj yeem kawm los ntawm Cuban ntsoog - thiab yuav tsum kawm los ntawm nws - yog tias peb yuav muaj sia nyob.
Dr. Lawrence S. Wittner (www.lawrenceswittner.com/) yog xib fwb ntawm keeb kwm Emeritus ntawm SUNY / Albany thiab tus sau Confronting qhov foob pob (Stanford University Xovxwm).
